The economic and financial effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine
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The conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine has come at a time of great uncertainty in the world, relating to several factors: uneven rates of vaccination against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and new variants of the virus; inflationary pressure and difficulty in maintaining fiscal stimulus packages; trade tensions and risks in the Chinese real estate sector; disruption of supply chains and rises in freight charges; and extreme events caused by climate change. The conflict will have an impact on the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean through several channels, but primarily the trade channel (with direct and indirect effects), the commodity price channel (including terms of trade and inflation issues) and the financial channel.
A. Three channels that transmit the impact of the conflict to the region. 1. Trade channel. 2. Pricing channel. 3. Financial channel .-- B. Macroeconomic effects. 1. Inflation and monetary policy. 2. Fiscal policy. 3. Economic activity, employment and poverty .-- C. Proposals amid a worsening context marked by uncertainty and volatility.