I N T \ M H \ 600 — TOTAL EXPORTS 500 - 400 — 300 — 200 — 100 —- RATE OF GROWTH OF TOTAL EXPORTS and GDP - CARICOM COUNTRIES (1967=100) • • • i i i i i i i 1967 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 i '77 i '78 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 IN CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES UNITED NATIONS ECONOMI«. COMMISSION POH LATIN AMERICA Otlic tor thi- C-i. bhcin CEPAL/CARIB81/1 \ // / H < I I I I Sé ( < 1 i i ( i i i < CEPAL/CARIB 81/10 Date: 15 September 1981 ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA Sub-regional Headquarters for the Caribbean ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 IN CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES (A joint effort of the Professional and Research Assistant Staffs of the Economic Commission for Latin America, Sub-regional Headquarters for the Caribbean) 'I I 'l I I F O R E W O R D This is the tenth in the series of publications. In this issue, separate notes appear for the first time in respect of Antigua, Montserrat, St„ Kitts-Nevis and St„ Vincent. It was not possible to compile notes on Belize and Dominica this year, but notes for these countries should appear in the next issue. The CEPAL Sub-regional Headquarters for the Caribbean remains grateful to the various National Statistical Offices and Agencies for their co-operation in furnishing the relevant data, without which the production of this report would not have been possible. S, St. A. Clarke 7 I I < i < < < < 4 • TABLE OF CONTENTS Pages INTRODUCTION I PART I : i - ii SUB-REGIONAL SUMMARY A. B. DEVELOPMENTS AT REGIONAL PROJECT LEVEL 9-10 C. 1 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1 - 9 SUB-REGIONAL STATISTICAL APPENDIX 1980 11 - l8 PART II : ANTIGUA COUNTRY NOTES 1-25 PART III : BAHAMAS COUNTRY NOTES 1 - 28 PART IV : BARBADOS COUNTRY NOTES 1-38 PART VII : GRENADA COUNTRY NOTES 1 • 26 PART VIII : GUYANA COUNTRY NOTES 1-32 PART IX : JAMAICA COUNTRY NOTES 1-37 PART X : MONTSERRAT COUNTRY NOTES 1-26 PART XI : ST. KITTS-NEVIS COUNTRY NOTES 1-25 PART XII : ST. LUCIA COUNTRY NOTES 1-23 PART XIII : ST. VINCENT COUNTRY NOTES 1-23 PART XIV : SURINAME COUNTRY NOTES 1-32 PART XV : TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO COUNTRY NOTES 1 - 36 SELECTED LIST OF STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS AND SOURCES 1 - 3 I I < I < < ( I « INTRODUCTION In this tenth issue of the publication "Economic Activity in Caribbean Countries", the 1980 performance of the Caribbean Countries is treated. The staffing problems-of the various statistical offices persist at a time, when the need for timeliness and accuracy of statistical data is greatest. In at least one country, the conduct of a population census engaged.the time of all the personnel employed at the statistical office, with the result that statistical series for major economic variables were unavailable up to mid-1981. The Country Notes in this publication are revisions of the texts that were prepared.earlier for inclusion in Economic Survey of Latin America, 1980, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America (CEPAL), Santiago, Chile. The revisions incorporate revised data for earlier years and additional data for 1980. These Country Notes examine current economic trends and developments in the countries and seek to identify the determinants of these trends. The countries covered in this document are: Antigua, Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada,- Guyana,.Jamaica,,Montserrat, St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, St. VincentSuriname and Trinidad-and.Tobago» The countries that were formerly included in the West Indies Associated States have been given separate identity in the interest of greater meaningfulness of the notes. The main sources of the economic and statistical' information used in the preparation of the Country Notes are listed at the end of this document. The symbols used in this report are the following: not available category not applicable nil or negligible 0, 0.0 or \0.00 less than half final digit shown e, estimated figure provisional figure revised figure government estimate ** CEPAL estimate PART I SUB-REGIONAL SUMMARY SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ( A. SUMMARY..OF-ECONOMIC-. ACTIVITY . Major Trends apd Changes in GDP Aggregates - Total and Sectors The Caribbean economic-.performance..in 11980-.was, severely, affected by the adverse^ external, circumstances .prevailing. in„that year- . Generally, industrialixed-countries experienced accelerated-..inflation. rateSj falling— productivity ancL-hpightened-unefflployment^... „Except .fox. Trinidad.and .Tobago. . . whose petxoleum_,sectQr..helped--io-inflate_its foreign exchange,.receipts, the. economies, of. the..region-.experienced.. some..measii.ra..of inertia.» . Grass Domestic Product gcôwth..es£imates.,at ..current,.prices were.generally. positive, hut reflected very meagre.growth.in.real terms. Such vulnerability grew out of continued. depend en re .ani.mpo.rts .of. ..food, fuel., and .other.. crucial. requirements.. for economic., and.social,sustenance. 'Further, unrelenting inflationary pressures and uncertainty in international markets defeated most efforts at economic diversification. • . J• • ' -- I'/KQ JU ' • . ' ' v . Traditional internal problems peJrsi^ted, especially high unemployment rates, inequalities in income distribution and low productivity levels» There was also a high incidence,of natural disasters„ In summary,-the economic Situation;in the: region waa.chet^cterized mainly b y . r i s i n g - p r i c e s . and-; e f j f o r t s h t o .p&fceefc- S o a s v a i e r a » . ¿ ¿ . s r e a s e d . government. expenditure - especially», an? wages. , . < , salaries,..depressed output and. snI continued .f crreign:r4eh£* - .There- haveiklso .been. some, initiatives in assessing traditional and alternative; sources.: of-.energy, encouraging energy conservation .. and in grappling with the fuel import bill. . Agriculture ,. . ••. toa.C z . - -.oc >. . , • ; D u r i n g .198CL the.Agxocultuxalr ' séctôï _experAenced..mixe(L_f ortunesl. with a general-tendency I'mia^'ri /fa^yiW.:-' fti&Vàîl - pyodii^jHm-, H .to., fall inspite of same.attempts. .at-digérëlfi.càtion and..expansiorL..of. capacity in the sector - . .This performance! was. tiiîdQutitP.dTy-,occ.âs±Q,ii£.d-..by natural-disasters, d iseases, . .impropex . . . l a n i r t e n u r e " systems",Inef f icient ..marketing., systemsr lack. . c & v equipment. aad. labourr'-shor ta ge s , t. , ..évident, .however, , that such growth as there 'was, related mainly to price increases. The export sub-sector was affected in a marked degree'especially in the Eastern Caribbean where thé -2- devastating effects of Hurricane David in 1979 were not.yet overcome when Hurricane Allen destroyed most of what was left of. the crops and.livestock in 1980. Nevertheless, the buoyancy of the sector in Barbados, Belize and Guyana contrasted greatly with the more impropitious circumstances in the rest of the region. Sugar..- .Total-production..of sugar-in..the, region, continued Its downward t r e n d 7;>eir^cen|t : :«. The s u b - s e c t o r ! s. . t r a d i t i o n a l . . problems prevailed-so.that the decline was still attributable to inclement weather, diseases resulting in poor quality cane, unavailability of equipment, fires and industrial and marketing problems. Barbados was again exceptional being the only country where the sugar industry's output...incr.eased_..by 18 per.-cent. over .the. 1929. production., level to 135,000 tonne's of sugar in 1980. This was mainly a result of favourable weather and increased acreage devoted to sugar-cane cultivation„ Indeed 1980 was a year in.which projected^-'shortfall in world production did come to pas's and.-speculative behaviour pushed up. the,price .of-sugar tremendously. The ceiling .price set.by the International-Sugar.Agreement .of $0.23 per. pound almost doubled by November 1980 and. the London.Daily price of raw sugar rose, as-high.~as.. £395_ per.- tonne, while the EEC .offered £222.04 per . tonne for shipments, between.. July. 19.80. and .June 19.81.. Unfortunately,.. full advantage-of. this . situation, could_not .be taken by . the major, sugar-exporting countries where production was low. Their increases in earnings were modest compared with the 79 per cent increase received in Barbados. Bananas. - Panana .production in.the Windward-Islands.,...Jamaica .and Belize, was adversely, affected-by hurricanes, flooding,., diseases., and in the case of Belize, long.spells..of .drought and..the closure of ..one farm. ..Lack of full year data prevents definitive conclusions on the extent of.losses.due to hurricanes but present estimates.,reflect average losses., of. 40 per cent or more. The formidable...leaf.spot.disease..continued..to retard possible recovery in. b anana.. p r o d ueiti on especially, i . . Jamaica .where., production, fell. n. by 52 per. cent., .to. .33 ».OOO-tonnfts in 1980. ...The ensuing., uncertainty, about.. supply poses .a., threat .to. the .future of the Caribbean as a major supplier of bananas to the U.K. in the face of the superior quality fruit produced in Central and South America. -3Citrus - Performance in this sub-sector was more promising than in others in 1980. Although the industry suffered from drawbacks such as inadequate transportation facilities, high cost of inputs, praedial .'larceny, absenteeism, poor distribution of rainfall and labour shortages, citrus production in Jamaica increased by over 30 per cent over 1979 levels„ This was due in part to some resuscitation carried out on more than half of the 717 acres planted. Over 1.5 million boxes of citrus were produced in Belize, almost three times the amount produced in 1979. i j The industry thus received greater earnings which could have been yet greater but for fluctuations in the market price. Rice - Rice production and earnings expanded in all the major riceproducing countries. Guyana .produced. 168,000..tonnes, of milled rice, 22 per cent more than the previous year which increased its earnings by 28 per cent. This occurred inspite of mechanical and technical setbacks and adverse weather. Expanded acreage in Belize was partly responsible for a 70 per cen c i n c r c y s e in production and limited information hints at a similar situation . in Suriname. Cocoa and Coffee - ¿oth cocoa and coffee production have been steadily declining over the last decade and both commodities have been experiencing reductions in their export prices. By June of 1980.cocoa and coffee production in Trinidad and Tobago had declined by 24 per cent and 12 per cant respectively with corresponding reductions in earnings. In Jamaica 250,000 boxes of. coffee were delivered to the Coffee Industry Board - approximately half the amount delivered the year before. This reduction was the combined effect of Hurricane Allen, the Berry Borer and poor, cultural practices. However, a resuscitation programme has added over 400 acres to the existing fields and a modest increase in the export price has yielded some increase in earnings, i Cocoa production and exports in Jamaica have decreased.. Despite heavy rains and Black_Rod. disease, production rose to 1,350 tonnes - 28 per cent more than the 1979 production. Cocoa prices dropped by £100 to £600 per ton in 1980 yielding very mediocre earnings. _4- Mlning and Refining Crude Petroleum - Available data indicate-that ..for .the second consecutive year, crude petroleum-production, declined..in Trinidad and Tobago..as no significant discoveries-of new.deposits, occurred, to fill.the vacuum left/by matured fields. .However, new wells and improved.recovery technology_.slowed . down the decline.to.1 per. cent as opposed to the 6.6 per cent decline in 1979. The 77.6 million barrels of locally produced crude were derived in the main from marine wells. Consonant with the fall in production, was a.decline in the volume of exports but export earnings.recorded.an increase of. some 61 per cent reflecting notable price increases. Refinery throughput is expected to continue on its downward trend as crude petroleum imports are also diminishing. In Barbados, production of crude petroleum .and.natural, gas increased by 7.8 per cent from 1979 and production of natural gas alone in both Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados grew by 13.6 per cent and 16.6 pér cent respectively. Bauxlte/Alumina - Indications are that bauxite/alumina production increased in Guyana, Jamaica ..and Suriname in 1980 . in..contrast, to the general . decline in 1979, and that .for. the most .part,. the, mining ...sector -maintained its importance . t . the. economies. . However, .despite..fluctuations, during the decade, .o production, in all. three-.countries, was .still helow-the levels of ..the early. 1970' s. Guyana experienced, aa. overall.. growth....in .p.roduction.. ln. the. sector despite.a.fall.in.production..of.driecLbauxite-and-alumina hydrate. Of positive benefit to the sector was a 64 per cent increase in alumina output from 129,000 tonnfes in 1979 to 211,000 tonnes in 1980. Increased world demand for aluminium, revision of. the bauxite.. . production levy and-renewed co-operation-between..government, and the foreign bauxite, companies- were, instrumental.in_the acceleration..of activity in this sector in Jamaica..., There were promising .signs-.of.. recovery from the stagnation.in the previous year, especially, attributable to a 17 per cent increase in alumina production to almost 2.5 million tonnes. produced reflected a 5 per cent rise. Bauxite' The sector's performance in Suriname was less promising but available estimates point to increases of 3 per cent in bauxite production, 12 per cent in alumina and 5 per cent in aluminium. Manufacturing Except.for Jamaica, Barbados, Guyana and Trinidad. and_Tobago, manufacturing in_the. Caribbean, accounts for a very insignificant part of overall economic activity. In 1980, the sector's contribution to GDP in Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago ranged from 7 per cent in Trinidad and Tobago to 15 per cent in Jamaica. The US$155 million earned by the sector in Jamaica represented a decrease of 12 per cent from the previous year's earnings. It is estimated ..that this decline has been accelerated in 1980 by the scarcity of foreign exchange and raw materials, frequent industrial unrest and a cut back in construction and the production of petroleum products, Trinidad and Tobago gained US$424 million from manufacturing activities even though its importance in total domestic production has been falling. meant a 25 per cent increase (in current prices), over the 1979 figure. This But the 8 per cent increase in the Index of Manufacturing Production inferred that a major part of the increase of the sector's GDP was due to prices. Promotional-drives.by the Barbados. Industrial Development Corporation conduced to a 6 per cent increase, in the Index .of all industrial production and 22 per cent growth in the GDP since 1979. The most significant, contribution was a 65 per cent increase in the quarrying.sub-sector.. A 43 per cent increase in the sector's foreign exchange earnings gave expression to the intentions of the Barbados Export Promotion Authority to encourage export of local manufactures. Despite mixed performances of the various sub-sectors, the manufacturing sector in Guyana managed to increase its earnings by 14 per cent inspire of foreign exchange scarcity and power outages. Tourism Data in respect of 1980 indicate a general deceleration in Tourism activity throughout the region. In the light of economic depression and balance of payments problems experienced in North..America:and Europe, there was a noticeable reduction in. air-traffic-,arrivals and stay-over visitors. On the other hand, notable increases in cruise ship arrivals managed to fill some gaps left by the decrease in air-arrivals. * The tourism sector , showed: mo'st buoyancy in.the Bahamas-.where..the. largestabsolute increase in totalr visitors' to : the region-.brought...the . number to almost 2 million-tourists..'' .'AlthoughLonly 9 per: cent greater than the number in 1979, this contributed positively to foreign exchange earnings which increased by 6 per cent to US$596 million ,in 1980., In Barbados, -.tourism.,activity remained .relatively high, .although external. conditions..discouraged.long-Stay.1.".;There. was ^a 48 ..per. cent., increase, in . cruise ship.passenger.s~ov.er. the. 1979 figure and the sector's earnings which were boosted by a 20 per cept. .increase in hotel rates went up by 25 per cent to US$249.6 million in;1980.. Data for tourism iri'Jamaica: imply a decrease in the' total number of arrivals. Apart.from . the.negative effects of.international.economic recession, Jamaica's image-.as.an.unsafe,.politically...unstable-island.deterred traditional North American.visitors. .Nevertheless,^European..visitors.were, responsible for. increases in.average-length of stay and consequently average per capita expenditure which pushed foreign exchange earnings above the 1979 level by 24 per cent. ..,, ._.• '•.' •.' i THE INFLATIONARY EXPERIENCE OF THE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES i Changes in Retail Price!Indexes evinced .a.generalized ..and.intensified acceleration..in: the. inflationary..prices..throughout-the..region, i . . 1980... . n. Indeed, there..exxst£_.some_.var1iatiQn...in the ..inflationary»level, from.country to country.. However, . differences in weight bases and base ¡year limit comparability and some very old indexes have been producing figures of doubtful usefulness. . . • • . , t , According.to. these. Indexes,., the..rate..of. inflation, for..1980. ranged from. 12.1 per.cent.in.the Bahamas.to-29.8 per cent in.Montserrat The rising price ! of oil coupled with general inflation in industrialized countries were major causes of price increases in the region. Evidence of this imported inflation > -7lay in the fact that the highest relative price increases related to items * and activities of highest import-content, namely: fuel and petroleum products, food, manufactured goods and transportation. In many countries, the cost of these goods and services increased by more than 40 per cent. ^ Despite price control efforts, domestic events including increased domestic demand, shortages of goods and higher wages and rents also influenced prices. Money supply in narrowly and broadly defined terms increased throughout > the region, although in_most.cases slower.than in .1979. This increased liquidity resulted largely from higher.wages, credit.expansion, tax concessions and greater earnings from the external sector. But the introduction of higher interest rates and heightened.tendencies.towards saving served to dampen the i rate at. which the money supply., increased.. In a few cases,, where no Central Bank exists, little assessment could be made of money in circulation but it is apparent that the money supply increased only modestly. Particularly , exceptional were Jamaica, and .Guyana ..where the money supply increased twice as fast as in 1979. In Jamaica, a 41 per cent increase on demand deposits helped-push total money supply to approximately US$1 billion. The US$333.3.million estimated as total supply for Guyana reflected increased economic activity especially in the external sector and improved credit facilities. Most governments.realized budgetary surpluses on their Current Account. Increased wages and salaries took the major portion of government expenditure but income f rom higher.import, duties, licences and. levies generated surpluses. These surpluses, could.not,, however, finance ambitious.. capital.expenditure programmes. Rising wages,.debt charges and the failure of some corporations to pay taxes resulted in current deficits of US$105 million and US$379 million in Guyana and Jamaica respectively. ' SOCIO ECONOMIC POLICY Socio-economic conditions in 1980 were marked by still unacceptable unemployment levels, persisting balance of payments deficits, falling productivity, spiralling inflation and foreign debt. In broad terms, the development strategies.adopted.by Caribbean governments addressed themselves to all these problems... As each, concentrated..on the effects of international economic developments, especially inexorable inflationary pressures, most budgets sought to reduce burdens and increase benefits to tax payers. This was especially the case among the.LDC's who sought .to.increase . government revenue without increasing taxation.. .It was.the opinion, of. these governments that altering, the.-tax..structure, was the..only practical, measure if government must meet.its developmental.commitments.. Alterations included lowering.or abolition, of.personal income t^axes and augmentation of corporation and indirect, taxes... For. St. Vincent and..Montserrat .there ..were no . new tax measures but improvements ..in. machinery fox tax assessment, and collection, . Antigua, like the Bahamas, does not have a personal income tax system. Heavy reliance was placed on trade taxes, consumption taxes and indirect taxes. Barbados and Suriname have demonstrated a similar .thrust not yet asserted by the others in 1980namely . increased awareness, and formulation and implementation.of definite policies on energy usé and consetvatioriv:hMuch of Barbados' socio-economic policy addressed itself to problems of inflation and employment. Some major isdues were: 1. Restructuring of the taxation system to increase incentives to earn resulting.in.greater.productivity.and.larger. disposable incomes. 2. Greater indirect taxes to protect local industry. 3. Protection of balance of payments by controlling..puhlic . sector. . . deficits and .restraining.the ..level, of imports* . 4. An institutional_capa.bility...in..the .energy.sector. to. conserve conventional energy and explore alternative sources. The Government of Suriname.embarked on a number of projects to develop new sources of energy... Plans .were, formulated . to increase generation, of . hydro-electricity to 800_mw...of.hydro-power and for ..the. construction of . micro-dams to siibstitute for hydro-carbon.energy. The government also concentrated on providing low-cost housing and on realizing a Health Insurance Scheme for most of the population. -9The Trinidad and Tobago government's development strategy in 1980 was much the same as in previous years. It concentrated on increasing employment opportunities, improving infrastructure, expanding .educational opportunities, providing low-cost housing, developing the energy sector, assisting small and medium businesses and fighting inflation with selective credit controls. Jamaica's socio-economic policy emphasized the government's commitment to tight financial and monetary control. adopted to restrain consumer credit. Monetary measures were The policy was intended to protect the balance of payments and limit demand for bank credit. Trends in Jamaican socio-economic policy in 1980 must be viewed in the light of the general elections that took place in the latter half of the year. Opposing economic positions of the major parties had some impact on policy and by the end of 1980 the new government had already reversed policies on foreign financing. Negotiations with the IMF and other funding institutions were re-opened. Nevertheless, the broad objectives remained, namely: improvement in. the standard of living, more equitable distribution of income and conservation and development of national assets and physical environment. B. DEVELOPMENTS AT REGIONAL PROJECT LEVEL A major development.in regional-co-operation, was the Sixteenth Meeting of the CAR1C0M.. Council of Ministers. at which the Council, recognized-the need for formulating„a-strategy: .for. Caribbean. Integration.for the present decade. To this end,.a.group, of. Caribbean experts, was commissioned .to review integration patterns to date and make recommendations, taking into account economic and political trends both in the national and international spheres. The Caribbean Alternative Energy Programme was-.formed..in..a CARI.COM/CDB/ USAID.Agreement and. its..goals, were to assist member states, in.assessing, their national energy resources and.to set up regular guidelines for national energy planning,.training and policy-making. To implement this, an Energy Unit was set up in the CARI.COM Secretariat to work in conjunction with a similar unit at the Caribbean Development Bank. -10Early in 1980, a study on Regional Industrial Development Planning was completed. Twenty-five priority projects on specific industries were specified for pre-feasibility study. Funds provided by the Federal Republic of Germany facilitated work on thirteen of these projects. It is hoped that aid from additional sources would help in completion of work on the other projects. i Also in 1980, there were continued attempts facilitating economic development of the LDC's. At the Fifteenth Session of the Common Market Council of Ministers, it was proposed that: 1. The work of the CARICOM Secretariat in each country would be implemented by a CARICOM. Country Officer. Scheme which would also.liaise.with the ECCM Secretariat. 2. There should be no restrictions to LDC merchandise exports within the region. 3. Investment funds should,be channelled .from LDC's to MDC's. 4. The CARICOM and ECCM Secretariats should initiate a strategy on a system for promoting.the-flow of raw.material-and . . intermediate goods from MDC's to LDC's. The Government.of.TrinidadJand Tobago created, an oil facility of US$86.7 million which would assist some member states in meeting their expenses on oil, fertilized and asphalt for three years. There was further discussion of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) which would replace WISA and the Council of Ministers. The Caribbean Group for Co-operation in Economic Development monitored the progress of their current programmes which were generally retarded by technical issues. C. SUB-REGIONAL STATISTICAL APPENDIX 1980 i ( < ( i i i i < TABLE IA CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN RETAIL PRICE INDEXES 1977 Antigua 1978 1979 1980 6.1 Country 16.4 19.0 Bahamas 3.1 6.2 9.1 12.1 Barbados 8.3 9.5 13.2 18.4 Dominica 9.5 7.7 17.9 9 9.0 9 0 fl 9 20,6 9 « Grenada 0 Guyana 10.8 19.5 15.6 O « o Jamaica 11.2 34.9 29.1 27.1 Montserrat 17.5 9.4 16.0 29,8 O 4 0 17,9 4 « St. Kitts-Nevis 8.9 Suriname Trinidad arid Tobago N.B.; 10.3 19.5 8,4 15.6 17.2 9.8 St. Vincent 10,0 10.2 St. Lucia 8.8 14,9 14.1 11.8 10.2 14.7 17.5 These changes are based mainly on averages of official monthly or quarterly retail price indexes. Source: Calculated from data in the Country Notes. TABLE IB CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES PERCENTAGES CHANGES IN RETAIL PRICE INDEXES - FOOD Country 1978 1979 1980 • 6.2 13.1 17.1 Bahamas 1.9 8.2 10.9 15.1 Barbados 8.5 10.1 11.1 • • • Dominica 9.5 • * « Antigua 1977 • Grenada • • • » 17.6 - - - 10.1 22.9 15.1 9,4 36,8 33,4 33.4 Montserrat 14.9 10.0 21.9 23,8 St. Kitts-Nevis 21.2 • • a • i » 14.2 • « Guyana Jamaica St. Lucia • 19.6 6.7 12.2 14.4 Suriname-, 7.3 4,9 12.8 12.2 Trinidad and Tobago 6.9 9.1 13.8 19.3 St. Vincent Source: Derived from data in the Country Notes, and Some Macro Indicators of the Caribbean Countries 1950-1979 - Selected Years. TABLE II SELECTED * CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN MONEY SUPPLY Total Money Supply Demand Deposits and Currency in Circulation (M ) 1978 1979 1980 1978 1979 1980 Bahamas 12.1 18.1 19.2 15.6 27.2 4.1 Barbados 15.7 23.9 17.9 21.7 39.6 11.4 Belize 28,7 2,4 13.2 50.8 0.8 12.7 Grenada 14.9 18,4 7,6 21.1 31.4 4.2 Guyana 10,6 7,0 19,0 5.7 - 4.4 13.7 11.4 35.0 8.3 13.1 32.7 Country Jamaica : St. Kitts-Nevis 23.9 20,6 15,1 30.7 28.8 24.1 St. Lucia 24.0 20.0 14.5 26.4 24.4 13.8 Suriname 12.0 10.4 10.2 12.2 11.1 7.6 Trinidad and Tobago 23.8 32.4 14.5 27.6 27.9 24.5 Source ; Relevant-tables of various countries' Statistical Appendices and Commercial Banking Statistics, East Caribbean Currency Authority, St. Kitts. TABLE III SELECTEDCARIBBEANCOUNTRIES EXCHANGE-RATE-- NATIONAL * CURRENCIES -VIS-A- VIS US $ (Par rate used) In terms of US$ National Currencies. 1976 . Antigua - EC$1.00 Bahamas - - 1977 - ,1978 1980 "1979 1.410239 o. 37.0370 0.370370 0.370370 0.370370 Bah$1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1. 00 Bd$l.00 0.499051 Ö.495308 0.497191 6;497191 - Bze$l.00 0.451550 0.451550 0,451550 0v451550 - 0.451550 Dominica - EC$1;00 v 0.410239 0.370370 0.370370 0;370370 • o.370370 Grenada - EC$1.00 0.382453 0.•370370 0,370370 OÌ'370370 • Ö.37037Ò- Guyana- - 0.392156 0. 392156 0.392156 0.392156 0.392156" 1.Ì0 0.5959 0.5613 0.370370 - 0.370370 0.370370 Ö;370370 • " 0".370370" 0.370370 " - Barbados ' Belize e • -'" - - : •G$1.00 Jamaica - J$1.00 Montserrat - : EC$1.00 St. Kitts-Nevis - EC$1.00 St. Lucia - - 1.10 f0,410239.- 0.370370 ; Ö.410239 0.370370. EC$1.00 ~ 0.410239 •0.370370 EC$1.00 Ò.410239 . .Ò.370370 0,370370 0.370370 Suriname (Central rate) _ Sf.1.00 0.560244 < 0.560224 0,560224 . 0.560224 Trinidad and Tobago T TT$1.00 0.410239 — St. Vincent Source : 0.41666 0.41666 0.41666 International.Financial Statistics,, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. ' 0. 497191 ' ' Ò.5613 0.370370 0.370370' . 370370 0.3703 70 0,560224 0.41666 .. -TABLE ; IVA CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES SUMMARY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SELECTED COUNTRIES PART I - CURRENT"REVENUE (US$'000 equivalent) Country 1977 Antigua 12,221.5 Bahamas 139,700.0 Barbados 122,961.2. 1978 13,702.2. 1979 1980 19,762,4 166,300.0 203,800.0 246,100.0 142,196.6 169,144.4 209,267.7 23,525.8 Belize 16,067.6 28,267.0 33,505.0 1 - ~ 9G. 0 7;3 32,883.8 34,174.7 Grenada 12,432.0 Guyana 139,372.2 142,666.4 155,450.6 178,038.8 Jamaica 582,010.0 463,133,5 468,236,5 541,542.2 3,405.7 3,497,1 4,749.3 6,032.9 20,260,7 Montserrat St, Kitts-Nevis 10,240,7. 12,815.6 14,939.6 St. Lucia 18,739,3 21,423,0 26,608,5 St. Vincent 10,723.7 12,141,8 14,501,8 15,987.4 172,380.9 203,305.3 216,190,4 235,294.1 1,242,063.-5 1,284,646.1 1,682,056,4 2,574,708.8 Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Source: Derived from data in the Country Notes, .., TABLE IVB CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES SUMMARY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SELECTED COUNTRIES PART. II. - CURRENT.-EXPENDITURE.(US$'000 equivalent) Country 1977 1978 1979 Antigua 16,261.1 16,249.7 21,177.7 Bahamas 136,000.0 157,600.0 178,800.0 Barbados 114,005.9 127,082.0 1980 150,450.0 Belize . • * 208,100.0 184,756.2 ; » • 20,003.7 23,616.1 Grenada 11,920.7 18,056.0 19,943.0 ; Guyana 163,293.8 190,313.3 227,960.3 1 283,528.8 Jamaica 922,790.0 693,448.8 695,675.2 920,307.8 3,109.5 3,614.2 4,486.6 5,841.9 St. Kitts-Nevis 10,583.3 12,033.7 14,233.3 17,083.7 St. Lucia 18,555.5 18,444.1 24,516.6 9,938.9 11,028.1 15,208.1 Suriname 203,585.4 220,672.2 o * * Trinidad and Tobago 484,533.9 617,906.8 936,443.4 • Montserrat St. Vincent Source : Derived from data in the Country Notes. ; 26,460.8 22,866.0 • « e 18,347.8 / » • • 1,174,522.9 TABLE V CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES PRODUCTION IN MINING AND REFINING Volume of Production Country- Commodity Units 1977 1978 1979 1980 Bauxite 1,616 '000 MT 260 230 129 211 '000 MT - '000 MT 11,1+31+ 11,736 11,505 12,053 '000 MT 2,0U9 2,lll+ 2,096 2,1+58 Bauxite '000 MT M56 5,025 ^,769 ... Alumina '000 MT 1,215 1,316 1,312 Aluminium: • Barbados 1,597 Alumina Trinidad and Tobago 1,753 Bauxite Suriname 1,737 Aluminious Cement Jamaica •000 MT Alumina Guyana '000 MT 50 59 53 Crude Petroleum. . Mill -litres 3 Natural Gas Mill Crude Petroleum Natural Gas Mill litres '000 M 3 36.0 •13,01*1.6 13,072.8 9.0 51 12,211+. 8 12,105. 6 M35.9 U.UT1.8 U,806.5 5,601.U 19.7 1+3,5 1+5.1 1+8.6 l+,700 9,599 Source : Compiled from relevant Statistical Appendices, and data supplied CEPAL. 11,667 13,252 -17TABLE VI CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Loans Approvals (US$'000) Total Loan Approvals-1970-1.979 — - Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 197^ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 TOTAL Loan Approvals' from; ' Soft' Funds — Between•MDC' s andrLDC's 1970-1979 Less More1 Developed , Developed , Total Countries. — Countries ;— More ! Less.¡t. Developed > , Developed Countries -- Countries . r 1,096 2,518 8,629 9,597 7,3W 13,731 6,324 19,159 57,703 iU,025 140,130 % Distribution 47.8 • ; 534 3,998 9,171 9,323 17,19215,9^9 11,157 23,66.1 20,575 18,732 22,590 152,882 52.2 ' _ ' 534 5,09^ 11,689 . 17,-95.2' : - 1,100 26,789 23,387 24,888 3,085 . 1,085 ..29,985 : 19' ,986 •39,734 "6,435 "19,527 36,615 - ' • •• • ' . - - 293,012 100 : — - '3,729 7,657 ; 7,3^1 ' 15,1^8 15,013 : 9,571 • 20,588 16,9^0 ' 15,678 22,707 49,882 134,372 ; 72,9 Total _ 3,729 7,657 7,341 16,248 .16,087 12,656 21,673 36,926 35,205 26,732 184,251+ '•'100 1/ Amounts in ;other currencies for the period 1970-1976 were translated at exchange "fates which were effective on 31 December 1976. Amounts for subsequent years were translated at rates effective on 31 December, of the respective years. ' 2/ Includes regional projects with MDC focus. Loans to WISCO-lst. loan ^fcolW $3'^gM^@p5rtànaii:G-o.vernmènt of -Guyana, St; v..Kitts^NévisAnguilla and Trinidad and Tobago re-Corn Soyabean $1,07^,118. 3/ Inelud.es regional projects with-LDC focuav Loans to LIJAT (1974) Ltd. of $5,^99,624 and $5,338,000 and. Caribbean Investment Corporation of : $1,260,000 respectively. • • • . - 1 ' b/ Includes regional projects with MDC focus. Governments of Guyana, St. KittsNevis^Anguilla and Trinidad and Tobago re-Corn Soyabean $1,074,118. 5/ The value of loan cancellations in years 1970-1977 is 'deducted from loan approvals in the year of approval of the particular loan. For 1978 and 1979, loan cancellations during each year are deducted from loan approvals of that year.; 6/ Include loans granted through the CDF: Loans to Governments of Jamaica, Guyana and .Barbados, $21:1 million, $10.4 million arid;$4.0 million respectively. . , I ; v TABLE VII SELECTED CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES BALANCE OF PAYMENTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES (US$ Mill.) TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1980p 1978r !979r MERCHANDISE TRADE (NET) BARBADOS 1978 1979 _ 1980 JAMAICA 1/ 1980 1978 1979 -315.2 UU.5 23I+. 2 136.1+ -178.6 181+.5 230.0 15.2 10.5 70. 0 10. 0 81. 8 - 1 6 . Q -•'86.7 -II+2.6 - 181.h - 67. 9 - 78.2 1,518.1 2,072.7 2,886. 1 110.9 ,+ 8ll+, 7 131. 5 206. 3 •961.•0 > 791+.5 - 5 2 1 . 6 -750.0 -882. 6 1,039.2 1,107- 2 1,1+98.9 1,720, -313.0 -1+12. .7 .9 - 256. 9 - I+76.O - 763. ,8 272. 5 -156.9 -151+.7 - 19I+. 0 225. .3 151+.1 .,165. 7 -202.1 330.9 573/8 - 92.6 1+2.9 368.7 23.8 - 138.6 18.1 586.9 1+5.7 - 38.0 - 1+5.6 - 1 5 .1 +. - 21.1 16.9 - 27.2 18.1+ - 27,.0 18 . 1 CURRENT ACCOUNT (NET) 36.0 52.2 CAPITAL ACCOUNT (NET) 297.6 31U.9 Private Official Borrowing SDR's Other + I8O. 1 117. 2 223.7 91.2 Exports Import s SERVICES (NET) Transportation Travel Investment Income Other Services TRANSFER PAYMENTS (NET) Private Official SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) 1/ Source: • • • 82U..6 127. 9 • • a 207 .2 0 • « 16.7 21, .8 30. .3 ,8 - 33, 1+6, ,6 - - 10. ,0 323.6 367.I 19-7 - 386.8 • - • 1 56b • 5 - .0 l. 12,.8 6b • 5 20. .0 17 .8 . 11, 1 500 .0 .0 19. e 0.5 7.5 28.1 - ,7 11+7. - 81..6 71.2 10. 0 120.,3 10. ,0 - - 76.9 8.,0 20. 0 9.0 9.8- -.10.1 + 22. 0 -169.1 . . . 178.9 .k 5. - -202. 6 - 265. 3 38. 3 -111+. 7 -136.6 - 158.7 80. 0 26. 8 90.8 25.7 « 11, ++0 < . - .6 333. 0 52. 9 • 6. ,1 - 172, .9 26.2 357 .3 - 31.3 - NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ,1+ ... - CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT -281. 0.6 - 77.5 International Financial Statistics, Volume XXXII, January, 1979« ,0 -II+3. 2. .1 -ll+O. 9 • ,+ 27.1 - 23. .7 .6 0, .1 23. i < < ( I I I PART II ANTIGUA COUNTRY NOTES ( < < ( I I I ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 ANTIGUA (East Caribbean dollars used throughout)— There was no available information on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 1980. It was expected that the growth achieved over the last few years would continue in 1980 with improved performances in the Agricultural, Manufacturing and Construction sectors. However, real growth was expected to be only slightly higher than 1979. In the Agricultural sector, the demise of the sugar industry continued to overshadow the performance of the Agricultural sector Although the overall agricultural production increased during the year, the failure of the corn and grain-sorghum project together with adverse weather conditions and lack of equipment resulted in a lower level of earnings than was anticipated. The Manufacturing sector continued to be -„entered around assembly-type production, clothing being the main item produced. The sector has not yet fully recovered from the closure of the oil and sugar refineries, though efforts are being made to introduce new industries. Most industries were affected by short supplies of raw materials and electricity. Tourism continued to expand resulting in increased earnings to the Service sector. Prices remained high in 1980 with the rate of inflation averaging 19 percent compared to 20 percent in the previous year. The rapid growth in petroleum prices and tariff increases in publi utilities were among the factors causing this continued high rate of inflation, 1/ Since July 1976 US$1.00 = EC$2.70 or EC$1.00 = US$0.37. N.B. Antigua's country notes were previously included in the section on West Indies Associated States. - 2 The finances of the Central Government and public enterprises improved considerably during the year. The Central Government current account has improved noticeably during 1980 with the resulting deficit decreasing from $10.1 million in 1979 to $3.8 million in 1980. The main factors for this improvement were the substantial increase in current revenue and decreasing level of current expenditure in 1980. The public utilities should have improved net operating surpluses as a result of increased tariffs. While government policy has continued to reflect the importance of tourism to the economy, there are indications that the worldwide economic recession is having serious far-reaching effects. While capital expenditure to the sector remains high the number of overnight visitors was lower than anticipated. However, this has been somewhat ameliorated by the sharp rise in the number of cruise ship visitors. This was caused by the increased price of fuel in the Southern Caribbean and resulted in a switching of schedules. However, if cheaper fuel again became available in the Netherlands Antilles, cruise ship visitors might decline rapidly. PERFORMANCE IN THE MAIN SECTORS Agriculture The Agricultural sector, which at one time played a dominant role in the economy, now has a minor role contributing only 7 percent to GDP at factor cost in 1979. It was expected that this contribution would deteriorate even further in 1980, even if only marginal increase was shown in the sector's earnings for 1980. This increase in earnings was expected from increased production spurred on by the higher prices paid to farmers by the Antigua Marketing Corporation under the Guaranteed Minimum Prices Scheme (GMP) and expansion of available credit facilities. Once the mainstay of the economy, with the production of sugar and cotton, the sector is now no more than a token activity of scattered farming. The steady decline of the cotton production and the demise of the sugar industry have left vast areas of land uncultivated. In 1978 and 1979, an attempt was made to utilize 3,500 acres of the more than 12,000 acres once under sugar, for the production of corn and grain-sorghum. However, this project undertaken with private capital, has not been successful due to the shortfall in financial returns to the Company, An attempt was made in 1980 to restart the project on a smaller scale with Government funding. In an effort to re-establish the sugar industry, more than 750 acres have been replanted for harvesting in 1981. It is hoped to restart the sugar refining operations on a scale sufficient to satisfy the domestic market. During 1980, as a result of the intensification and expansion of the small holder activity, the small farmers experienced increased output for some crops. However the mixed performance of the small farmers continues to reflect the cyclical nature of production patterns which have been influenced by generous subsidies. An attempt has been made to monitor the production and marketing of some of the crops. The main crop under production is expected to be pineapples with an estimated output of about 140,000 lbs. in 1980. This increase in production came about as a result of the increased acreage under cultivation. Production of avocadoes, ginger and mangoes is increasing in order to satisfy both the domestic and export markets. An attempt was initiated in 1980 to control agricultural prices to reduce the problem of over-production. A committee has been appointed to monitor the level of production of the items which are to be placed on the GMP list to ensure wider coverage. Also in 1980 the disbursement rate of credit from the Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank has been increased and now more than EC$500,000 is available to farmers. Credit is extended for the purchase of farm equipment and planting materials. Overall, the amount of uncultivated land, and the unreliable rainfall together with other factors such as the lack of equipment and shortage of supplies for land preparation were the causes for the lower earnings in this sector for 1980. The livestock subsector is largely centred on non-commercial activities and mainly for domestic use. The export potential of - 4 the fishing industry continues to be constrained by the inadequate onshore facilities, and improperly managed and inadequately exploited lobster banks. During the year, the Public Sector expenditure in agriculture amounted to $4,642,000, an increase of 64 percent from the $2,828,000 spent in 1979. Mining and Manufacturing The Industrial Sector in Antigua continues to feel the effects of the closure of the oil and sugar refineries and the continued low output from the cotton ginning plant. In 1979, the contribution of the combined Mining and Manufacturing Sectors accounted for only $14.9 million and a contribution of only 8 percent to GDP at factor cost. However, both sectors showed rapid increases in earnings during 1979, making the outlook for 1980 as favourable as in 1979. Despite the availability of only few production statistics for the Manufacturing Sector, indications are that most of the sub-sectors would show improved results. It was expected that the output of the garment sub- sector would be increased with the increase of clothing establishments. Over the last few years this sub-sector has achieved rapid increases in earnings and with increases in domestic demand, mainly for the Tourism Sector the rewards are anticipated to be higher. This increase would have been evident in other types of manufacturing since it was estimated that more than $6 million were loaned to the Manufacturing Sector. Most of the loans were made available to the clothing and food and beverages sub-sectors. The Manufacturing Sector operates within the constraint of a small domestic demand market and having the prospect of regular shortages of raw materials and electricity supplies. However, there continued to exist in Antigua a number of assembly-type and final-processing industries which are able to operate on this smaller scale of production. Operators in this class include the assembly of household appliances, assembly of furniture, some food processing plants, a motor vehicle component assembly plant, a building materials factory and various clothing manufactures. There was no new major industry established in 1980, though efforts are being made to win newer industries as well as to expand existing - 5 concerns. During the year, government has started work on the pro- vision of more factory shells for expanded industrial activity. This venture was financed mainly by Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and British Development Division (BDD) with credits through Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank. At the same time, the industrial sector continues to be encouraged by the existence of a number of production incentives. These include exemption from profit taxes, and import and export duties provided for under the 1975 Fiscal Incentives Act and the Approved Products Order of 1976. low 40 percent corporation tax. There is also the benefit of a It is hoped that the reactivation of the sugar industry and the petroleum industry would increase the sector's contribution to GDP. The rehabilitation of the oil refinery would assist in the development of the sector, offering crude and refined products at preferential prices. Transport and Communication Generally this sector is the largest single contributor to the total GDP, accounting for 17 percent of GDP in 1979 while increasing its earnings by about 11 percent from 1978. With the growth of air transport and an apparent increase in tourist arrivals during 1980, it was expected that the earnings from this sector would be increased during 1980. Though no quantitative data are available, it is expected that there was a growth in volume of cargo handled by the Port Authority and thus an increase in earnings also partly attributable to increased charges effective as of 1980. Government has about doubled its Public Sector expenditure in the area of public utilities, and efforts are being made to improve the airport and runway, provide additional port equipment and upgrade the Public Works Department with external funding. Construction Increased earnings in construction were expected in 1980, especially through heavy Public Sector investment, increases in private construction and the continued expansion of the hotel industry. Earnings in 1979 rose by 23 percent with the sector's contribution to GDP being 7 percent. - 6Indications for 1980 show a continuation of the pattern set in 1979 with expanded expenditure in construction, catering for anticipated increase in tourist arrivals. It was estimated that more than 500 rooms were being added to existing hotels while rehabilitation of others were taking place. Figures from the commercial banks show a rapid rise in demand credit for the sector and over $6 million have been earmarked for the Public Sector expenditure in construction. Electricity and Water Following increased Public Sector expenditure tarrifs were increased by the Public Utility Authority (PUA) and this was evident in 1980. should serve to raise earnings from this sector. This Added to this, the size of PUA earnings would have been increased with the expected settlement of unpaid bills by the Government. In 1979 the sector's contribution to GDP was just over 2 percent yet earnings rose by over 36 percent from 1978. At the same time, efforts are being energy. made to seek out new areas of So far the most likely fields would be the non-conventional solar and wind-energy. Already plans are underway to set up three (3) 50-watt turbines generating additional energy for the National Grid. All this is expected to cut down on the traditional dependence of oil as the basic energy source. Tourism Indications are that the rate of growth in the Tourism Sector levelled off in 1980. Estimated current earnings to this sector rose by 9 percent to $104 million in 1980. However, pet capita expenditure fell by some 8 percent in the same period, reflecting the relatively large number of cruise ship visitors. It was estimated that more than 194,000 visitors entered Antigua in 1980 an increase of some 14 percent over 1979. This increase was attributable mainly to the 52 percent growth in the arrivals of cruise ship visitors from 70,266 passengers in 1979 to 107,094 in 1980. It is apparent that the drop in air arrivals has seriously affected the growth in total earnings, although visitors by sea have increased rapidly over the past four years. The decrease in tourist arrivals by air can be attributable to the fall - 7 in visitors from North America. Apparently, the recession in that area and attractive packages to visit elsewhere have reduced the total number of visitors from this source. Arrivals by air from the United States of America amounted to 34,401 in 1980, and 8,826 from Canada, representing a decline of 11 percent and 4 percent respectively. Visitors to Antigua by air from the United Kingdom rose some 6 percent to 10,774 in 1980, possibly because of the high exchange value of the pound sterling; making it relatively cheaper to holiday in the Caribbean than formerly. It was expected that visitors from other Caribbean countries increased in the same period. A factor which has contributed to this drop in air arrivals has been the high cost of air fare to Antigua. The rise in the number of cruise ship visitors to Antigua, resulted from the increased number of ships into Antigua. This growth in visits can be directly attributed to the increased price of fuel charged to the ships' operators by the ports traditionally visited, thus resulting in less visits to and more to the Eastern Caribbean. Southern Caribbean ports This has greatly assisted the tourism industry in Antigua, filling the gap left by the reduction in air arrivals. The additional visitors and size of the sector's earnings were possible through the efforts of lengthy promotion tours in Europe, United Kingdom and North America offering some attractive holiday packages. This venture was supported by improvements in hotel facilities and other tourist services. An attempt has been made to increase the number of off-peak season visitors, thereby improving the relatively low occupancy rates which normally exist during this season. To this end the government and the Hotels Association have decided on a schedule to keep private hotels open during the summer months. This is in keeping with the policy set in 1979 to have all government-owned hotels opened year-round, where possible. This has been moderately successful with increases in the summer visitors to Antigua in 1980. - 8 February continues to be the peak visit month of the year, and August the peak summer month. However, the availability of hotel rooms in 1980 during the peak months continues to be at a premium with expansions of hotels taking place in Antigua during this period for the low income group. EMPLOYMENT No absolute figures are available for 1980 but indications are that unemployment continues to be around 20 percent with most of the unemployed being former agricultural or refinery workers. The government has continued to absorb some of these workers in government projects with heavy public sector expenditure. In 1978 about 6,000 workers were employed in the Public Sector mainly in the community, social and personal services. At the end of 1979 the figure had fallen from 5,930 in 1978 to 5,902, again mostly in personal and community services. higher in 1980. This figure was expected to be slightly In 1978 the labour force was estimated at 26,767 whereas the 1979 estimates were 27,592,an increase of 3 percent. THE EXTERNAL SECTOR There is no up to date information on the actual position of the External Sector. However, indications are that the sector continues to deteriorate. This would be the result of increased expenditure on imports and the estimated reduction in the size of the export earnings. Increased deficits of net factor service payments and an anticipated negative balance on merchandise trade was expected to reduce further the Current Account Balance. The External Debt was also expected to be increased with foreign capital loans being sought to finance domestic public sector investment. As regards merchandise trade, indications are that the food and fuel continue to be the main items of imports, followed by machinery and manufactured i terns. Clothing, rum and lobsters continue to be the main exports. It should be noted that some semi-furnished manufactured items brought in for assembly were also re-exported items. The volume of most petroleum products imported increased in 1980. - 9 Statistics shown in Table VI of the Statistical Appendix reveal rhat there were increases in the volume of mogas and kerosene/jet fuel imports rising by 17 percent and 10 percent respectively. Whereas, the volume of liquified petroleum gas rose 6 percent, the imports of gas oil fell some 23 percent in 1980. On the export side, the exported quantity of gas oil rose by about 424 percent in 1980, as a result of releases of previously stockpiled supplies. At the same time, exports of kerosene/jet fuel and mogas rose by 8 percent and 21 percent respectively. There were no exports of liquified petroleum gas. The closure of the oil refining and sugar industries has had a great influence on the low levels of export earnings over the last few years. Clothing, comprising mainly the finishing items for re-shipment to North American markets. Rum and manufactured commodities continued to be the main exports. The demands of the Tourism Sector have placed a heavy toll on the import side of the merchandise trade with large imports of food and beverages, fuels, manufactured items and machinery. The anticipated effects of the manufacturing incentives were not expected to contribute increased earnings in 1980, due to the longterm benefits given to foreign capital. PRICES The rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose significantly by about 19 percent in 1980, compared to the more moderate 6 percent increase in 1978. Increases in petroleum prices, freight rates and housing costs were the main causes of this growth. It is quite evident that the age of the index does not represent a true situation as some of the items included in the basket are no longer obtainable. Nevertheless, it is certain that increases in the prices of petroleum products had a drastic effect on the overall level of prices in 1980. Added to this there was increased domestic demand -10caused by the increased number of tourists visiting the island. In fact the Utilities component showed a 42 percent rise during the year, as a result of increased rates and tariffs to its customers. Food and alcoholic beverages index increased by 17 percent attributable to increased import costs of these items. The housing index rose 21 percent reflecting the higher prices of houses due to the rising cost of building materials. Clothing increases were more moderate than the other components of the index, possibly because of the smallness of the industry and the incentive given to local garment manufacturers. It is evident that the real effects of the level of prices are subject to significant external influence. It was obvious that the price of petroleum on the external market adversely affected the structure of Antigua's domestic pricing of petroleum products. The price of gasolene rose from $3.13 per gallon in early 1979 to $4.77 in mid-1980. Kerosene prices almost doubled in the same period from $2.27 in early 1979 to $4.44 per imperial gallon. Diesel fuel rose by about 72 percent in the same period to $4.35 per gallon with the 100-lb. propane tank increasing in price by about 63 percent. FISCAL AND MONETARY ACTIVITIES Fiscal Developments During 1980 the Central Government was able to steady the rapid deterioration of its finance. However, the 19 percent increase in the level of current revenues was not sufficient to offset the size of recurrent expenditures, which fell some 2 percent during the same period. Nevertheless, this was enough to close the existing deficit in the fiscal current account. The deficit was reduced from $10.1 million in 1979 to about $3.8 million in 1980. The increase in the Central Government current revenue comes from a 37 percent increase in import duties and 138 percent rise in company taxes. Added to this, the implementation of new tarrif rates by the Public Utilities Authorities resulted in a 39 percent increase in consumption taxes. At the same time the level of income taxes fell some 18 percent, and local receipts decreased by over 43 percent in 1980. > - 11 - ^ No income tax was levied on domestic incomes. Indications are that there continues to be a high level of expenditure on personal emoluments since the Government continues > to act as the employer of last resort in order to relieve the economy of its high unemployment rate. In other expenditures Government has increased spending in the public utilities, in construction and agriculture. I No information on the size and structure of the external debt is available. In 1980 more than 24 percent of current expenditure of the Central Government or $13.5 million was spent on debt servicing. ( However, this was about 9 percent less than the 14.9 million spent in 1979. Monetary Developments The monetary activity in Antigua continued to be monitored ^ by the East Caribbean Currency Authority (ECCA). The absence of a National Central Bank makes it difficult to correctly assess the amount of money in circulation. During 1980, it was evident that the flow of deposits into > the commercial banks continued to grow from 1979 with attractive interest rates and increased tourist activity. The level of demand deposits grew by 33 percent while the volume of savings deposits showed only an 8 percent increase a decline in the rate i of increase from the previous years. This contributed to the expansion of credit demand mainly for Public Sector requirements and personal loans. Indications are that a large proportion of total loans were granted on a long-term basis. i ( \ { I I I I I i » » » I I STATISTICAL APPENDIX ANTIGUA 1980 > I > > i 4 i i ( i ( < ANTIGUA TABLE I GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES 1975-1979 (EC$ Mill.) 1975 Agriculture 9. 6 1976 1977 1978 1979 10 .9 .6 11. 12 .8 13.5 Annual Growth Rate 19777 1978/ Ï979Ï 1976 1977 1978 6 .4 10 .3 5. .5 Domestic Agriculture (1 .1) (1 .3) (0, 8) = (1 • 2) (1.2) (-38.5) (50 .0) (0, >0) Livestock (5 .9) (6 .2) (7, .3) (7 .9) (8.5) (17 .7) (8 .2) (7. 6) • Fishing (2 .6) (3 • 3) (3. .5) (3 .7) (3.8) (6 .1) (5 .7) (2. .7) 1 .1 5 .1 10 .4 1 .3 22 .0 1, ,0 6, ,9 10. ,9 2, .1 .0 26, 1 .2 9 .3 11 .0 3 .6 29 .7 1.6 13.3 13.5 4.9 32.9 -9 .1 35 .3 4 .8 61 .5 18 .2 20 .0 34 .8 0 .9 71 .4 14 .2 33, .3 43, .0 22, .7 36, ,1 10, .8 Mining and Quarrying 0 .7 Manufacturing 11 .0 Construction 9 .0 Electricity and Water 1 .4 Transport and Communicat ion 20 .1 Road (7 .6) (7 • 3) (8. .3) (9 .2) (11.0) (13 .7) (10 .8) (19, 6) • Sea (1 .0) (1 .0) • (1, 7) (3 • 1) (3.9) (70 .0) (82 .4) (25, .8) Air (6 • 9) (8 » 2) (9, 1) (10 .1) • (11.7) (11 .0) (11 .0) (15, 8) • Communication (4 .6) (5 • 5) (6. .8) (6.3) (23 .6) (7 .4) (-13, 7) • Trade Hotel and Restaurants Banking and Insurance Ownership of Dwellings Government Other GDP at Factor Cost GDP at Market Prices N.B. 15 .3 11 .2 8 .5 15 .5 15 .3 3 .0 120 .6 135 .2 14 .0 14 .1 7 .5 16 .5 16 .6 1 .2 120 .8 135 .7 ,1 17, 18, .5 9, .7 18, ,4 .4 19, 0, ,3 142. ,0 162. ,1 (7 .3) 19 .2 22 .2 10 .6 19 .8 23 .5 1 .3 164 .2 190 .4 24. 3 29. 1 13.1 23. 3 26.0 1.8 197. 3 227.0 Totals may not agree due to roundings. Source: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance, Antigua. 22 .1 31 .2 29 .3 11 .5 16 .9 -75 .0 17 .5 19 .5 12 .3 20 .0 9 .3 7 .6 21 .1 333 .3 15 .6 17 .5 26, .6 31. .1 23, .6 17, ,7 10, .6 38, .5 20, .2 19 .2 ANTIGUA TABLE II ESTIMATED OUTPUT OF SELECTED COMMODITIES Unit 1976 1977 1978 1979 '000 lbs. H 523 449 528 36 558 136^ 414 615 147 Yams H 134 86^ 179 240 75 Tomatoes H 241 78^ 358 300 65 Onions H 160 62 279 134 Carrots H 300 16—^ 2/ 112— ; 278 323 60 Pineapples h 88 57 66 120 140 Bananas M 98 212 113 134 120 Ginger i t 3 7 11 6 13 Lobsters t i 300 350 Animal Feed H 298 93 128 Raw cotton Sweet potatoes 164 Rum '000 proof gals. 178 Cotton Lint 179 Cotton seed oil '000 lbs. M Clothing (outerwear and underwear) Dozens 84^ 1980^ 137 12 174 3 27,180 149 2 18 37,000 . .. . .. 1/ Data for small farmers. 2/ Data for January to November. 3/ Data for January to May. Source: Statistical Yearbook, 1977, Ministry of Agriculture and Supplies. > - 14 ANTIGUA TABLE III SELECTED DATA ON TOURISM 1976-1980 1976 Cruise-ship visitors Total visitors 1978 57 ,191 68,279 76,895 99,536 32,385 35,795 51,942 70,266 104,092 128,837 1980 1979 89,576 Total overnight visitors 1977 169,802 Average length of stay in hotels (days) 86,571-/ 107,094 2/ 193,665- ... e o e Occupancy rate (%) Number of hotels and guest house beds 2,372 Number of new hotels - 2 2,609 - - Number of new guest houses Total tourist expenditure 2,372 5 2,747 3,475 - - 4 3 e 49,116 66,593 76,135 95,000 62 59 96 120 1,036 2,131 2,731 2,040 7,211 4,819 8,957 32 34 72 2,677 3,091 104,000e 7,356 Number of cruise-ship calls Number of yacht calls Passengers on yachts Number of wind cruiser calls ... Passengers on wind cruisers 164 As % of Total Visitor Arrivals (Air only) By Country of Origin United States of America 40.7 42.9 46.7 45.0 39.8 Canada 14.3 12.5 11.8 10.6 10.2 8.8 7.8 9.5 11.7 12.4 Caribbean 25.9 26.3 21.7 22.1 Other 10.3 10.5 10.3 10.6 56,398 67,412 75,562 86,459 United Kingdom Total Air Arrivals 37 86,571 i 1/ Visitors by air only. 2/ Excludes visitors by sea. 3/ Includes % for Caribbean. i Source: Antigua Department of Tourism and data supplied CEPAL. > ANTIGUA TABLE 1 IV EMPLOYED LABOUR FORCE CLASSIFIED ACCORDING TO INDUSTRIES (Wage Earners and Self-employed) Industries 1977P 1978P 1979P 1974 1975 1976 2 ,194 2 ,349 2 ,291 2 ,366 2,099 2,092 55 55 61 26 71 75 1 ,510 1 ,417 1 ,355 1,447 1,539 321 575 392 392 319 Construction 2 ,201 2 ,131 1 ,906; 2 ,044 2,369 2,476 Distributive Trade with Hotels and Restaurants 3 ,758 3 ,833 3 ,849 , 3 ,866 4,571 4,867 Transport, Storage and Communications 2 ,342 2 ,253 2 ,219 2 ,294 2,427 2,596 803 814 849 • 864 699 742 6 ,070 6 ,334 7 ,002 ; 7 ,026 7,231 7,322 19 ,254 19 ,761 20 ,013 ' 20 ,233 21,306 22,028 53,798 53,853 20.4% 20.1% Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Finance, Banking and Business Services Community, Social and Personal Services TOTAL 1 ,345; 491 Labour force total Unemployment • • • Source : Statistics Division of the Ministry of Labour. 1 ANTIGUA TABLE V ESTIMATED NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED (WAGE EARNERS AND SELF-EMPLOYED) IN THE PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTORS (BY INDUSTRY) AT END OF PERIOD Industries Public Sector 19 7 Private Sector Total Public Sector 19 7 9 Private Sector Total Agriculture, Livestock 1,548 1,551 2,099 527 1,565 2,092 Quarrying 16 55 71 16 59 75 Manufacturing 10 1,427 1,447 17 1,522 1,539 392 319 and Fishing 319 Electricity, Gas and Water 392 Construction Wholesale and Retail Trades Restaurants, Hotels and Guest Houses 553 1,816 2,369 567 1,909 2,476 56 4,515 4,571 55 4,812 4,867 460 1,967 2,427 540 2,056 2,596 41 658 699 41 701 742 3,844 3,387 7,231 3,820 3,502 7,322 5,930 15,376 21,306 5,902 16,126 22,028 Transport, Storage and Communications Finance, Insurance, Real Estates and Business Services Community, Social and Personal Services TOTAL Source: A Synoptic Picture of the Employment Situation in the years 1978 and 1979, M. Lewis and V. Grosman. March 1981. Ministry of Labour, Antigua. - 17 ANTIGUA TABLE VI SELECTED DATA ON EXTERNAL TRADE (EC$'000) 1976 Imports Exports Food 1977 Imports Exports 20,891 865 1,907 1,385 602 395 636 663 2,068 772 22,876 7,480 311 11 1,007 26 463 1 686 1 605 7,596 326 9 ,381 577 9,604 1,156 Manufactured Goods 14,246 1,240 18 ,695 999 23,697 3,872 Machinery and Transport equipment 16,662 8,032 22 ,489 7 ,162 24,258 7,516 Miscellaneous manufactures 6,310 3,058 9 ,321 3 ,098 10,219 17,783 Miscellaneous transactions 282 832 322 1 ,578 6,644 892 91,837 23,614 100 ,705 15 ,935 Beverages and Tobacco Crude materials Minerals, Fuels and Lubricants Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats Chemicals TOTAL Balance of Trade Source: N.B. -68,223 26 ,003 492 1978 Imports Exports 12 ,861 - 1,394 -84,730 Data supplied CEPAL. 1977 and 1978 data exclude Oil and Petroleum. 31,723 836 3,935 - 1,574 113,760 0 34,427 -79,: 333 ANTIGUA TABLE V I I IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF SELECTED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 1977-1980 (Barrels) 1977- 1978 1979 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978/ 1979/ 1980/ 1977 1978 1979 I M P O R T S Mogas (Motor Gasolene) 148,161 125,210 141,799 165,474 -15.5 13. 3 16. 7 Kerosene/Jet fuel 321,614 281,674 342,094 376,805 -12.4 21.4 10. 1 Gas Oil 200,648 173,125 286,370 219,617 -13.7 65. 4 -23.3 14,552 14,031 15,255 16,144 -3.6 8. 7 5.8 Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) E X P O R T S Mogas (Motor Gasolene) 62,776 31,737 52,006 63,165 -49.4 63.9 21.5 Kerosene/Jet fuel 24,106 16,147 14,914 16,127 -33.0 -7.6 8.1 Gas Oil 40,780 6,935 18,608 97,561 -83.0 168. 3 424. 3 Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) 1/ 120,324 barrels of Bunker C were imported in October 1977. S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c a l D i v i s i o n , M i n i s t r y of F i n a n c e , Antigua. ANTIGUA TABLE VIII CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1 January 1969 = 100) 1976 1977 1978 1979 All Items 224.0 254.8 270.4 314.6 374.4 Food and Beverages 270.8 306.5 325.5 368.0 Alcoholic beverages and Tobacco 210.7 229.1 243.3 Housing 165.4 168.6 Utilities 160.7 Clothing and Accessories Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1980 6.1 16.4 19.0 431.1 6.2 13.1 17.1 289.7 339.3 6.2 19.1 17.1 177.2 190.5 230.6 5.1 7.5 21.0 215.0 226.9 315.9 448.4 5.5 39.2 41.9 242.5 284.3 291.9 322.7 365.2 2.3 10.5 13.2 Transportation 195.7 255.4 269.4 385.0 454.7 5.5 42.9 18.1 Household operations and Miscellaneous 209.4 240.8 270.1 310.6 360.8 12.2 15.0 16.2 : ; 1 • December Averages % Change December All Items 240.4 267.1 284.5 344.5 400.4 6.5 21.1 16.2 Food and Beverages 287.8 331.3 350.9 402.0 468.2 5.9 14.6 16.5 Alcoholic beverages and Tobacco 224.9 232.4 251.1 317.5 355.6 8.1 26.4 12.0 Housing 168.6 168.6 177.4 207.6 239.2 5.2 17.0 15.2 Utilities 161.7 223.2 230.9 368.6 463.8 3.4 59.6 25.8 Clothing and Accessories 259.6 293.8 293.7 349.2 388.1 0.0 18.9 11.1 Transportation 250.7 261.9 276.8 410.0 486.1 5.7 48.1 18.6 Household operations and Miscellaneous 224.1 234.7 295.5 338.7 386.7 25.9 14.6 14.2 Source : S t a t i s t i c s D i v i s i o n , M i n i s t r y of F i n a n c e , A n t i g u a . ANTIGUA TABLE IX PRICE CHANGES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (1973-1980) Date 25/ 7/73 Gasolene IG $0.84 - Kerosene IG $0.55 Diesel IG $0.55 Propane 100-lb. $19.60 Propane 20-lb. $5.89 0.64 0.69 24.45 6.00 0.80 Propane (Bulk) USG $ - 5/12/73 1.36 1.04 1.11 32.00 7.25 1.23 15/ 5/74 1.59 1.20 1.32 35.00 8.50 1.50 1/ 3/76 1.86 1.48 1.54 42.00 10.20 2.25 13/ 9/76 2.20 1.66 1.80 45.00 11.80 2.39 1/ 8/77 2.41 1.78 1.94 50.00 14.22 2.66 5/ 6/78 2.69 1.88 2.20 58.00^ 4/12/78 2.87 2.01 2.34 60.00^ 14.62 2.75 5/ 2/79 3.13 2.27 2.53 65.00^ 15.16 2.92 25/ 4/79 3.54 2.67 2.85 74.00^ 17.04 3.20 5/ 6/79 3.63 2.74 2.92 75.18 17.28 3.25 1/ 8/79 3.95 3.26 3.42 81.00^-/ 18.50 3.51 1/ 2/80 4.63 4.26 4.21 95.50^ 18.70 3.84 27/ 5/80 4.77 4.44 4.35 105.75—/ 20.90 4.39 1/ Includes $8.00 cylinder rental. IG = Imperial gallon USG = United States gallon Source: S t a t i s t i c a l D i v i s i o n , M i n i s t r y of F i n a n c e , Antigua. - - ANTIGUA TABLE X SELECTED ACCOUNTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS (EC$ Mill.) 1976 Outstanding at 31 December 1977 1978 1979 198Ò Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 Liabilities to the Private Sector Demand deposits 15.8 22 .6 19 .5 ,2 26. Savings deposits 40. 1 44 .7 47 .4 Time deposits 51.5 33 .8 47 .0 Net foreign assets -17.6 -21 .9 -25 .2 37.6 11 .0 17 .4 (35.3) (8 .5) (2.3) (2 .5) Assets Claims on banks in territores Claims on banks abroad -55.2 Liabilities -32 .8 -13 .7 34.4 23. ,7 54, .8 32, ,4 1 59, .0 6 .0 15.6 7, .7 53, .7 64, .0 39 .0 14. 3 ,2 19, ! »q ,0 33, 24, A1 (9 .5) (25, .1) .0) (19, (7 .9) .9) (7, -42 .6 (15.9) (6 .9) (8 .3) .2) (8, Balances to banks abroad (25.4) (11 .8) (18 .5) (12, .0) Non-resident deposits (13.9) (14 .1) (15 .8) 58 . 2 • 89. 7 -24, .5 • (11 .7) (164.2) (-24, 3) (216 .0) (5, f i Balances due to banks in territories . .3) ) (-25, ( - . \ (.. Assets of Commercial Banks (10, .2) 1 ,0) (11. (.. (24, .4) (20 .3) 2) (-1. (56 .8) • (-35.1) (-8, 3) (12 • 1) » Loans and advances 89. 3 97 .6 103 .9 117, .5 1 136, 7 .! Inves tment 19.8 9 .5 10 .4 8, .9 11, ,4 9 .5 -14 .4 28, .1 2. 7 3 .1 3 o9 ,6 5, 7, .0 25 .8 43 .6 25, 0 = Cash Source: Commercial Banking- Statistics, period ended December 1980, Research Department. East Caribbean Currency Authority (ECCA), 6 .4 13 .1 16, .3 TABLE XI QUARTERLY ANALYSIS OF BANKS' LOANS AND ADVANCES (EC$'000) Dec. 1976 Dec. 1979 Dec. 1980 959 1,840 1,838 3,741 11,213 Manufacturing Dec. 1978 7,196 Agriculture Dec. 1977 8,633 12,693 10,580 6,821 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (821) (913) (987) (1,324) (172) Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (337) (660) (1,634) (1,925) (1,907) Clothing and Accessories (867) (968) (1,826) (1,598) (1,875) (9,188) (6,091) (8,246) (5,733) (2,867) 14,580 29,486 16,249 11,402 23,137 Tourism 9,793 6,118 7,913 6,550 3,575 Transport 2,343 2,478 3,862 4,063 3,555 Public Utilities (gas, electricity and telephone) 1,045 1,340 1,687 428 66 Building and Construction 7,281 6,702 8,289 5,836 5,030 Government and Other Statutory Bodies 14,992 12,834 12,314 30,844 29,260 Personal 15,068 21,233 23,958 27,280 49,693 5,700 7,785 15,047 18,717 11,795 89,311 97,569 103,852 117,538 136,673 32.5 35.8 30.9 49.4 29,026 34,930 32,090 58,064 Other Industries Distributive Trades Other Advances TOTAL LOANS AND ADVANCES % of Long Term Loans to Total Loans TOTAL LONG TERM LOANS Source; Commercial Banking Statistics, period ended December 19805 Research Department. East Caribbean Currency Authority (ECCA)- 48. 7 66,560 - 23 ANTIGUA TABLE XII SUMMARY OF GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (EC$'000) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Recurrent Revenue 28,343 33,031 37,033 48,453 53,412 Recurrent Expenditure 35,187 43,949 43,918 58,553 57,237 S av i n g - - e f i c i t—on -- s / d -current account -6,844 -10,918 -6,885 -10,100 -3,825 Capital Revenue 8,113 11,084 7,848 5,831 Capital Expenditure 5,826 7,131 5,156 • • • Total Revenue 36,456 44,115 44,981 Total Expenditure 41,013 51,080 49,074 Fiscal surplus/deficit -4,557 -6,965 -4,093 4,024 5,560 3,164 Debt Servicing Source : Ministry of Finance, Antigua. 49,257 14,935 13,540 ANTIGUA TABLE XIII CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE (EC$'000) 1980e 1976 1977 1978 1979 Import Duties 6,627 7,858 10,444 11,863 16,265 Export Duties 12 11 11 10 20 Excise Duties 18 8 7 2 5 4,331 6,290 6,678 8,349 11,606 2,147 1,058 771 630 2,193 2,817 3,041 7,240 Current Revenue Consumption Duties Income Tax Personal 7,972 Company Other taxes 3,340 5,518 8,109 11,712 13,300 Other local receipts 6,043 9,007 7,909 7,678 4,346 28,343 33,031 37,033 43,426 53,412 359 1,905 1,522 1,798 3,030 Development Aid 3,199 3,819 4,028 3,696 Local borrowing 4,555 5,360 2,398 337 36,456 44,115 44,981 49,257 TOTAL RECURRENT REVENUE Capital Revenue Other local receipts TOTAL REVENUE N.B. 1978 and 1979 are unaudited actuals. Source; Ministry of Finance, Antigua. 1,600 ANTIGUA TABLE XIV CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE BY ECONOMIC CATEGORIE? (EC$'000) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Agriculture 1,931 2,308 2,764 2,828 4,642 Construction 2,622 3,887 4,052 2,553 6,422 Public Utilities 1,676 2,196 1,210 1,946 3,353 13,795 15,983 17,344 17,676 27,080 11,139 14,015 15,384 18,615 27,079 31,163 38,389 40,754 43,618 68,576 4,024 5,560 3,164 14,935 13,540 35,187 43,949 43,918 58,553 82,116 Social-^ 2/ AdministrationSub-total Debt servicing of which: 3/ Repayment of loansForeign) ) Local ) Interest charges Foreign) ) Local ) TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1/ Includes expenditure on education, health and other community services. 2/ Includes all expenditure on civil administration including central civil service, police and courts. 3/ Includes interest charges. Source: Ministry of Finance, Antigua. PART III BAHAMAS COUNTRY NOTES / I I I I I ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BAHAMAS (Bahamas dollars used throughout - B$1„00 = US$1.00) Official preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the years 1973-1979 have recently become available for the Bahamas—^ Selected GDP data are shown in Tables I and II of the Statistical Appendix. The preliminary estimate for the year 1979 shows that GDP at current factor cost was $1,080 million. This figure represents an 11 percent increase over the 1978 estimate which itself is approximately 11 percent higher than the figure a year earlier. Estimates are not available for 1980 but performance trends ,of the available partial indicators suggest that GDP increased at a somewhat higher rate than in 1979. Agriculture is estimated to have increased in 1979 and 1980 but mainly as a result of price increases, although there was an increase in the fish catch. Fruit and vegetable crops suffered from the effects of the 1979 hurricanes. Tourism was the sector mainly responsible for growth in 1979 and 1980 as the number of visitors increased by approximately 6 and 8 percent respectively, and tourist expenditures grew even faster. The indicators suggest that construction activity increased in real terms during 1979 and 1980. Major construction projects initiated at the end of 1979 progressed during 1980 and should gain increased momentum in 1981. Indirect indicators also point to increased contribution of utilities and "other services" sectors. The outcome of the External Sector transactions, as indicated by preliminary balance of payments data up to December 1980, can be characterized as satisfactory. Net increase in reserves was approximately $14 million, raising the level of foreign reserves to approximately $92.6 million - a slight decrease from the $20 1/ These estimates are considered to be very tentative, especially at the sector level, and as such should be considered as merely indicative and used with appropriate caution. - 2 million recorded a year earlier. The major unfavourable influence was the rise in value of imports affected by the large oil price increases during 1980. On the positive side, tourism receipts, local expenditure of off-shore companies and capital inflows increased and the net outflow on investment, dividends and profits were reduced. The rate of growth of inflation continued to accelerate during 1980 as indicated by the 12 percent increase in the average level of retail prices. One major development in the field of money and finance was the increase of the Central Bank's rediscount rate to 11 percent in an attempt to narrow the differential with United States rates (inducing sympathetic movements in other interest rates) in order to restrict demand for Bahamian dollar credit and curb outflows of funds, part of which were responding to higher returns existing elsewhere which created considerable pressure on the foreign exchange reserves. It should be noted that implementation of previously enunciated policies such as diversification of the economic structure, improving housing and social services, particularly for the poor, elderly and handicapped and improving the infrastructure of thè outlying islands were intensified during 1980. PERFORMANCE IN THE MAJOR SECTORS Agriculture Provisional GDP estimates by type of economic activity for the period 1973 to 1978 have been made available recently. For 1978 the figure for agriculture was given as $42 million in current prices. Unofficial estimates put the growth rate at approximately 5 percent during 1979 and 7 percent during 1980. These rates of growth are lower than the growth rate estimated for 1978 and reflect the effects of hurricane "David" which affected mainly the output of fruits and vegetable crops. One major dairy farm ceased operations during 1978/79, further depressing growth of this sector. These reductions were offset by substantial increases in fisheries and smaller increases in livestock products. - 3 Fisheries is the major component followed by livestock and dairy products. Fruits and vegetables and forestry together now account for less than 10 percent of the total sector contribution to GDP. Data in Tables II, III, IV and V of the Statistical Appendix are illustrative. Volume of fish landed in 1980 increased by approximate- ly 25 percent. Value of livestock products increased by just over 4 percent, well below the average increase in the price index for foodstuff during the year. On the other hand, output of dairy products and fruits and vegetables were relatively small during 1979 and 1980. Employment in agriculture was estimated at some 4.5 thousand persons during the census of 1978. Preliminary estimates place the figure at over 5 thousand or more than 5 percent of the labour force during 1979. crops. The Bahamas is increasing its self-sufficiency in many These are mainly vegetables and fruits including citrus and pineapples. The country is almost self-sufficient in poultry and eggs and is rapidly moving towards self-sufficiency in pork. There are a large number of problems and challenges facing the agriculture sector. These problems can be divided into two areas, namely production and marketing. important. Three of these are: On the production sida inputs are adequate credit, which has not always been readily available on terms many farmers can afford; fertilizers and animal feed-stuff which are sometimes scarce and always expensive in the international market, and scarcity of agricultural labour. There is also a need to expand production not only to replace some imports but also for the export market. This will require upgrading of agricultural practices, including irrigation and appropriate mechanization, and ensuring adequate farm labour, íhis latter is particularly significant in the context of Caribbean countries where there is a scarcity of agricultural labour existing side by side with significant unemployment. On the marketing side, the problems include transportation, the limitations of the distribution itself and the need to develop the export markets. island nature of the Bahamas requires sea transport. The multi- This is inadequate at the moment with too much reliance being placed on the - 4 mail boats tha t are not very suitable for transporting and storing agricultural cargo. The marketing system is being improved with the creation of new terminals and produce exchanges. However, it would seem useful if the machinery for payment of goods could be speeded up and if a system of adequate insurance of produce could be introduced. Realizing the inherent problems of dependence on a single economic activity, tourism, a major policy-decision of recent years has been to diversify the economy and expand agriculture. Part of the rationale is to obtain benefits of inter-sectoral linkages and to reduce expenditure on food imports. This policy has been implemented through a number of strategies including improvement of the institutional framework, training of manpower, expansion of credit through the Bahamas Development Bank and increased government expenditure on agricultural activities. Expenditure by Government during 1979 in support of agricultura has been estimated at $4.7 million. This figure is more than three and one half times as large as the $1.3 million spent during 1974. A preliminary estimate of similar expenditure for 1980 was approximately $6 million. Tourism The total number of visitors to the Bahamas increased by approximately 9 percent in 1980, compared with increases of 5 percent in .1979 and 23 percent in 1978. Increases in the most important stop-over visitors category were approximately 5 percent in both 1979 and in 1980 and were supplemented by large increases in cruise-ship visitors especially in 1980. Total expenditure by all visitors has been estimated at $596 million for 1980, an increase of $33.6 million (6.0 percent) over 1979. It should be noted also that average hotel room occupancy rate which reached a high of 83 percent during 1979 declined to 75 percent during 1980. Hotel accommodation also increased during 1980 following initiation of a programme during 1979 to build 2,000 rooms. Despite the recent availability of GDP estimates it has not been possible to estimate precisely the contribution of tourism. It is clear, however, that tourists make a major contribution to the restaurant and hotel sector and a somewhat smaller contribution to wholesale and retail trade, transport and communication, finance and miscellaneous services. - 5 . T h e level.of tourism activities also continued to be the major influence on other sectors of ..the Bahamian economy during 1980. Tourism.taxes, comprising departure-taxes * passenger ticket taxes, hotel occupancy fees and Nassau water tower fee amounted to nearly 6 percent of total Government tax revenue in 1980,. at approximately $12 million compared with $6.3 million in 1978. Visitors also make a significant contribution to import duty revenues through their puchases of imported goods. Government spending on tourism has grown from $12.7 million in 1978 to an estimated $19.8 million in 1980. This increased expenditure reflects greater emphasis on marketing in the light of increased competition for visitors in the context of economic recession affecting several major developed countries. It may, be noted that, efforts are being made to increase tourism in the family islands where the greatest potential exists at present. Realization of this objective depends to a large transportation facilities. extent on increased At present, hotel occupancy rates in the family islands are significantly lower than in the two major centres of New Providence and Grand Bahama. .Construction,, - o•,. . The GDP estimates already referred to include a construction component which on average has accounted for only about 2.3 percent of total GDP between 1973 and 1978. at approximately $22 million. Estimates for 1978 put the figure The trends of available indicators of construction activity suggest that the sector grew in real terms during 1979 and 1980. The major components of construction are residential buildings and Government construction projects. Data;on building starts and completions given in Table VI of the Statistical Appendix show the rising trends during 1979 and 1980. Analysis of available Government expenditure data indicate also a rise in outlays on construction activity during this period and for 1980 the Government sub-sector appeared to supply the greater dynamism. Government projects currently planned or being implemented include a major market plaza; ment structures; hospital, educational buildings and other Govern- airport buildings and landing strips, . the fishing complex mentioned in the section on agriculture and roads and other physical infra-structure The objective of current construction policy is to provide adequate housing for all' citizens and to this end a large urban re-development project is in the early stages of implementation. and international, is being negotiated. Financing, both local Meanwhile, several building lots and areas for development have been identified and the programme will eventually be extended to islands other than New Providence. It should be noted that considerable potential for inter-sectoral linkages and domestic employment exists. The cement factory, which has experienced difficulties in recent years would receive a boost by this higher level of activity. There are several problems to overcome if the sector is to perform adequately. Among these are shortage of craftsmen, shortage of building materials, inadequate transportation, the prevailing high mortgage rates and scarcity of financing. The Government's efforts to improve technical skills in this area have been given a boost recently with the granting of a $7 million loan by the World Bank for its vocational and technical education project. THE EXTERNAL SECTOR The structural characteristics of the External Sector of The Bahamas are quite interesting. With respect to merchandise trade, there is a notable division between petroleum and non-petroleum trade. Balance of payments statistics exclude the movement of petroleum into and out of . 2/ The Bahamas not destined for local final consumption— . Non-oil exports 2/ These statistics differ from those published in External Trade Statistics Report, Department of StatisticsBahamas. The petroleum refinery is a foreign subsidiary receiving.crude and producing for designated foreign markets. The refinery is required to supply local consumption requirements. > - ) 7 - consist mainly of fish, selected pharmaceutical productss alcohol, crude materials, miscellaneous manufactured goods and cement. Imports on the other hand, consist of a wide range of foodstuffs and manufactured goods including nearly all the investment and consumption ) goods required. The services account of the balance of payments comprises mainly foreign travel, which includes the expenditure of residents abroad and receipts from the 1.8 million visitors new arriving annually. * The other major categories of services ara: profits; interest, dividends and transportation and local expenses of offshore companies. It should be noted that The Bahamas zs a tax shelter accommodating large numbers of foreign financial enterprises thus large inflows * and outflows of funds occur annually. However, all such transactions which have no impact on the local economy ?.re excluded from the balance of payments. I Capital account transactions are mainly private sector;, longterm capital movements, involving real estate and loan receipts and repayments. Government and public corporations borrow infrequently in the external market. ( Since 1975 the debit side of the account has shown the larger annual movements. Balance of payments data for the period 1976 to 1980 are given 3/ in Table VIII cf the Statistical Appendix '. The merchandise trade deficit increased sharply in 1979 to $452 million as the increase > in imports continue to exceed the increase in exports. This trend continued into 1980 with the merchandise trade deficit reaching a high of $632 milliono The services account surplus increased substantially in 1980 to $608 million on the strength of the 1 larger receipts on foreign travel and transportation. During this period, outflows on transportation and the net outflow of interest, dividends and profits were both reduced while local expenses of off-shore companies (inflows) increased sharply. 3/ The figures for 19 76-1979 shown in last year's Economic Survey have undergone considerable revisions. i ( - 8 - Net capital transactions during 1980 improved compared with full-year 1979. ^ Net official capital outflows and net private capital inflows increased. As of end December 1980 there was a net positive change in reserves of $14 million and the level of foreign reserves reached $92.6 million, equivalent to less than two months imports. < PRICES 4/ The average level of retail prices in the Bahamas— during 1980 was approximately 12 percent higher than during 1979. _ _ < Except for 1974 this increase is the largest since computation of the index started and continues the trend of higher rates of price increases every year. The data are given'in Table IX of the Statistical Appendix. As in ' 1979, food prices again exerted major impact on price levels in 1980, increasing on a year-to-year basis by nearly 16 percent. The transport index reflecting increases in oil prices also gave a strong upward boost to the overall index. There are close links between the economies of the Bahamas and the United States of America so that prices in New Providence are strongly influenced by price trends in the United States. It is noteworthy that , for the second consecutive year the Bahamas has experienced a lower rate of price increase than the United States. ( MONETARY AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Money supply in the Bahamas, measured by the narrowly defined concept, the so-called M , grew at the relatively slow rate of 4.1 percent during 1980, compared with a 27.2 percent increase in the earlier year. This { relatively low rate of increase in 1980 resulted from the slow growth in demand deposits of 1.9 percent, supplemented by a 12.1 percent growth in currency outside banks. Contrasted with this position is the 14.1 percent increase in savings deposits and the 33.3 percent growth in time deposits. < 4/ Represented by the index for New Providence. < - 9 Rates of interest on time deposits are several points higher than savings deposits rates and both increased during 1980- As of September 1980 interest rates on 12-month deposits averaged 8.3 percent while rates on savings deposits averaged 6.4 percent. Domestic credit expanded during 1980 to over $523 million, a 12.9 percent increase. This increase was entirely accounted for by private sector credit which grew by 19.1 percent while net borrowings of Government and loans to other local financial institutions from the banking sector declined. It should be noted tha*. the bulk of loans to the private sector has been classified as "personal and other local loans" in Table XI. Since 1978 the level of borrowing of public utilities has increased substantially but its share of the total of loans and advances of the commercial banking system is small. Real estate loans and loans to establish- ments serving tourists were relatively stable during 1980c The credit expansion occurred, partly because of the existence of a market for transactions in both foreign and dómesele currencies in The Bahamas and the differential interese rates. During the period 1978-1979 loans in Bahamian dollars increased while loans in foreign currency declined. The increase in interest rates in the United States and other Euro-dollar countries influenced, upward, interest rates in The Bahamas for foreign currency loans. It became profitable, therefore, to borrow in Bahamian dollars, at the lower rates, and lend or invest at the higher rates after converting. Early in 1980, the Central Bank increased the Bank rate from 9 percent to 11 percent. The clearing banks in concurrence with the Central Bank increased the prime interest rate from 9 percent to 11 percent. At the same time interest rates on savings deposits was raised by 2 percent points from 4 percent to 6 percent. Even at 11 percent the Bank discount rate and the prime races at the time were still below comparable rates in the United States. With the supply of foreign exchange lagging behind the demand after mid-year, the Central Bank adjusted its buying and selling rates of U.S. dollars - 10 - to encourage commercial banks to sell more foreign exchange to the Central Bank. In November 1980, the Central Bank added a 3 percent surcharge to the discount rate to discourage frequent use cf this facility for credit expansion purposes. Toward the end of 1980, the outflow of funds and the rate of increase in domestic credit were being slowly retarded. With respect to operations of the Central Government, both income and expenditure increased by more than 21 percent and 16 percent respectively over the 1979 figure representing a real increase in income of around 8 percent. The national debt increased during 1980 to $293.3 million, an increase of $18.5 million over 1979. The Bahamas is a tax haven, consequently there is no income tax and special tax concessions exist to induce foreign companies to base their headquarters in that country. In the absence of an income tax, main reliance for Government revenue is on import duties and to a lesser extent on various indirect taxes, such as fees on services, etc. Business License Act came into effect. Late in 1980 a All businesses, unless specific- ally exempted, are required to secure a license in order to conduct their operations. Preferential treatment is specified in the Act for selected types of business. The amount of the fee payable is calculated on the basis of total gross receipts less costs, which are defined in the Act and varies directly with the size of the business. Licenses expire at the end of the year in which they were granted and must therefore he. renewed annually. It is expected that fees accruing under this Act will provide additional revenue of $4 million annually. ENERGY Currently there is no known indication of hydro-carbon resources in the Bahamas. With respect to new and renewable sources of energy there is abundant sunshine during the greater part of the daylight hours throughout most of the year. production of salt. Some use is made at present of solar energy for the There is also considerable wind power potential. As the ocean slopes rapidly off the coast of New Providence Island to depths of 6,000 feet very near to the shore, it has been suggested that it may be - 11 - possible to locate ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) facilities to utilize this potential source of energy. Energy resources in the Bahamas therefore consist mainly of imported petroleum products. There are both a petroleum refinery and a petroleum trans-shipment terminal in the Bahamas. The refinery "imports" crude specifically for refining for its overseas-based parent company. However, the company is obliged to provide for local needs from its production. Petroleum products are used for generating electricity, for bunkering, for air and sea transport as well as for land transport, commercial, industrial and household use. Recent Trends A distinction has to be made between crude petroleum entering the country for refining or trans-shipment and products provided by the refinery for local consumption—^. imports into the local economy. The latter is considered here as Value of imports of petroleum products has moved from about $129 million in 1975 to approximately $177 million in 1979. For the year 1980 these imports amounted to approximately $292 million, a 68 percent increase over the figure for the comparable period in 1979. This increase was entirely due to price rises as volume of imported petroleum products was lower by 25.2 percent in 1980. This increased value of petroleum products is reflected partly in the increased production of electricity in the Bahamas. These data are given in Table XIII which shows that between 1976 and 1979 total electricity production increased by 39 percent. Installed capacity of electricity generation establishments has been increasing in the last two years and now stands at an estimated 371 MW. Electricity generation data are not available for 1980 but are projected to exceed the 829 million kWh generated in 1979. Retail prices of selected petroleum products 1972-1980 are given in Table XV. These prices have increased at a slower rate than the price of crude petroleum. For example, diesel oil prices increased by 5/ Includes oil imported for domestic consumption plus that amount sold as bunkers to foreign ships and airlines. - 12 - some 211 percent, the price of .„domestic kerosene increased by 150 percent, while the,price of gasolene and.LPG increased by approximately 112 percent. 6/ On the other hand one index of crude petroleum prices— shows increases more than seven-fold. Government has therefore not passed on the full increase in oil prices to consumers. Rapidly increasing prices have not dampened -energy demand in the Bahamas in recent, years. Except in the. immediate post-1974 period, consumption and imports of petroleum products have - continued on an.upward trend following the growth in. economic activity. , The selected data shown below indicate that , the country has absorbed reasonably well the increases in price of oil and • other commodities. It would appear that some level of accommodation (not to say equilibrium) has been found to the higher prevailing levels of oil and other prices. In 1979 the Bahamas seemed in a relatively better position than in 1975 when some economic magnitudes are compared. For example, petroleum imports were only 3 percent higher than domestic exports in 1979, compared with 11 percent in 1975. However, the position worsened in 1980. Petroleum imports have advanced to approximately 40 percent of total (local) imports and to 1.46 times domestic exports during 1980. Also the ratio of imports and foreign currency debt to domestic exports and net tourism receipts was 0.47 in 1980 compared with 0.35 in 1979 and 0.51 in 1975. The level of foreign debt has remained relatively low and has actually decreased after 1977. The absolute numbers of persons employed have increased even though unemployment has also increased up to 1979 and the balance of payments have been favourable in most years since 1974. However, the constant rise in imported prices is so far not being matched by increases in total output. 6/ World Export Price Indexes of Primary Commodities and Non-Ferrous Base Metals, Table 59 in United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. - 13 Table 1 Comparison of Selected Aggregates 1975 1979 1980 Petroleum Imports/Total Imports^ 0.354 0.318 0.388 Petroleum Imports/Domestic Exports 1.114 1.034 1.479 Petroleum Imports/GDP 0.172 0.163 Total Foreign Currency Debt/GDP 0.085 0.050 Total Foreign Currency Debt/Domestic Exports 0.551 0.316 0.203 Petroleum Imports and Foreign Currency Debt/Domestic Exports and Net Travel Receipts 0.505 0.345 0.472 1/ Exclude petroleum "imports" not for local consumption. Source: Calculated from data in the Statistical Appendix. I I < STATISTICAL APPENDIX BAHAMAS 1980 ( < < i i i < i 4 ( - 14 BAHAMAS TABLE I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE ON THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (CURRENT VALUES) (B$ Mill.) 1973 Government final consumption expenditure!./ 1978 1979 345.9 509.2 553.4 617.8 78.6 114.0 132.0 147.2 106.7 Final consumption expenditure of resident households 1977 86.8 93.2 120.3 Gross fixed capital formation of which: Building and construction (21.0) (30.2) (34.7) Machinery and equipment (76.0) (48.7) >2/ 2/ (50.0)- (55.0)- (9.7) (7.9) Other 3/ Exports of which: (8.5) (10.9) 465.7 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 820.4 947.4 (407.2) (489.0) (565.2) 432.1 Imports 702.5 (302.0) Tourism Less: (54.4) 536.5 628.5 753.2 564.8 876.0 970.5 1079.5 JL/ Includes administrative expenditures of the National Insurance Board from October 19 74. The expenditures for last quarter of 1974 are included in those for 1975. Government other non-tax revenue deducted. 2j Guesstimate. 3/ Estimated at 10 percent of the other items of gross fixed capital formation. Includes land clearance, breeding stock, dairy cattle and the like and may also be assumed to reflect increase in stocks. Source: Data supplied CEPAL by Department of Statistics, Bahamas. BAHAMAS TABLE II PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, AT CURRENT FACTOR COST (B$ Mill.) In Current Value 1973 1977 1978 1979 Agriculture Percentage Breakdown 1973 1979 Annual Growth Rate 1977 1978 1979 21 35 42 3.7 4.3 -6.2 20.7 79 91 117 14.0 12.0 1.2 28.6 13 19 22 2.3 2.3 -4.5 15.2 113 145 181 « •• 20.0 18.6 -1.3 24.8 71 86 113 12.6 11.7 1.2 32.2 71 86 113 12.6 11.7 1.2 32.2 44 79 86 7.8 8.9 14.9 8.0 173 240 287 30.6 29.6 12.6 19.6 102 163 163 18.1 16 ; 8 13.2 -0.3 319 482 53b 56.5 55.3 12.9 11.2 62 163 141 11.0 14.5 8.0 -13.5 TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 565 876 971 100.0 100.0 8.3 10.8 ) Mining Manufacturing^ —^ Construction Sub-total Goods 1/ Electricity, Gas and Water—' Transport, Storage and Communications Sub-total Basic Services Commerce Finance and Ownership of 2/ Dwellings- Public Administration and Defence) 3/ Miscellaneous Services— Sub-total Other Services Import Duties and Statistical Discrepancy ) ) 1/ Electricity and water included with Mining and Manufacturing. 3/ Community, social and personal services. Source: 1,080 11.2 2 / Financing, real estate, business services, _ restaurants and hotels. Data supplied to CEPAL by Department of Statistics, Bahamas. 16 BAHAMAS TABLE III ESTIMATED VALUE OF FARM PRODUCTION B$ million Items Annual Growth Rate P 1979 1980P 1977 1978 1979 1980 1978 4.73 5.66 ... 3.87 19.7 Dairy Products 2.46 2.54 0.47 0.32 3.3 -81.5 -31.9 Fruits and vegetables Meat (Beef and Mutton) 0.45 0.37 0.56 0.52 -17.8 51.3 -7.1 Poultry Products 11.18 10.14 13.27 13.92 -9.2 30.9 4.9 TOTAL 18.82 18.71 ... 18.63 -0.6 Source; Data supplied CEPAL. BAHAMAS TABLE IV PURCHASE OF SELECTED COMMODITIES BY THE GOVERNMENT PRODUCE EXCHANGE Quantity Unit Commodity Oranges '000 fruit M Limes 1978P New Quantity Unit 1979 1980 1976 1977 714.6 809.2 707.6 MT 139.8 165.8 1,815.3 1,533.3 1,158.9 MT 68.3 105.7 240.0 346.3 319.4 367.4 730.0 3,658.0 765.0 5,242.0 91.9 93.7 Banan as MT Pineapples Dozen Watermelons MT 175.5 32.8 162.4 256.9 478.3 Pigeon Peas (green and dry) MT 59.8 18.9 25.1 53.2 104.1 1,560.2 731.1 1,452.0 546.8 333.3 Tomatoes (fresh) '000 L MT MT Onions MT 290.3 11.0 291.0 297.9 222.2 Sweet Potatoes MT 89.4 39.5 77.1 45.2 68.6 68.4 46.8 Tangerines '000 L 1/ For the period January to September 1978. N.B. From 1979 all data in metric tons. Source: Agricultural and Fishing Statistics Report (several issues): Department of StatisticsBahamas, and data supplied CEPAL. MT 51.7 BAHAMAS TABLE Xiri VOLUME OF MARINE PRODUCTS LANDED Tonnes Annual Growth Rate 1977 1978 1979 1980P 1977 1978 1979 1980* Crawfish 450 504 547 493 39.3 12.0 8.5 -9.9 Conch 239 170 224 262 -16.7 -28.9 31.8 17.0 Turtle 33 42 20 23 10.0 27.3 52.4 15.0 Other 874 963 865 1,289 6.3 10.2 -10.2 49.0 1,596 1,679 1,656 2,067 9.9 5.2 -1.4 24.8 TOTAL Source: Agricultural and Fishing Statistics Report, Fourth Quarter, 1977, Department of Statistics, Bahamas, and data supplied CEPAL. BAHAMAS TABLE VI CONSTRUCTION INDICATORS 1977 1978 1979 1980 1,704 63 1,835 65 2,182 118 2,679 230 756 27 953 42 1,107 72 1,121 136 600 20 765 29 900 56 150 7 182 13 197 15 489 19 540 692 34 Annual Growth Rate 1977 1978 1979 1980 Building Permits Number Value 1/ 1.1 3.2 18.9 81.5 22.8 94.9 26.0 55.6 16,2 71.4 12,6 88,9 20.2 11.1 27.5 45.0 17.6 93.1 21,0 -33.2 21o3 92.4 8.2 15,4 10.4 1.9 14,9. .11.0 28.1 .61,9 9= 9 14.5 Building Starts Number Value 1/ 18.7 -20.6 of which: Residential Building starts Number Value 1/ of which: Commercial and Industrial Buildings start 2/ Number Value 1/ Building Completions Number Value 1/ 21 1J Millions of current Behamas dollars, 2/ New Providence and Grand Bahama Islarids only. Source: Quarterly Review, September 1980, Central Bank of Bahamas, and data supplied CEPAL« 733 34 5,9 0.0 BAHAMAS TABLE VII SELECTED DATA ON TOURISM Annual Growth Rate 1977 TOTAL NUMBER OF VISITORS - '000 1/ of which: 1,320 1978 1979 1980 1978 1979 1980P l,640r 1,735 1,873 24.2 5.8 8.0 Stop-over Visitors ('000) (includes Excursionists) 965 1,176 1,235 1,295 21.9 5.0 4.9 Cruise Visitors ('000) 353 450 476 578 27.5 5.8 21.4 11,442 11,175 11,411 11,427 -2.3 2.1 0,0 66.6 76.9 83.0 75.4 15.5 7.9 -9.2 7.0 ;, .o 7„0 7.1 0.0 0.0 1,4 58.75 57.61 62.53 62.84 -1.9 8.5 0.5 Per Visit Expenditure (B$) 408.90 401.54 434.58 435,00 -1.8 8.2 0.0 Total Expenditure (B$ Mill.) 394.8 472.3 536.9 563.7 19.6 13.6 5.0 10 o 4 5.8 Hotel Rooms available Maximum during year (Licensed Accommodation) Average Hotel Room Occupancy Rate (New Providence Island only) 2J STOP-OVER VISITORS Average Length of Stay (Nights) Per Diem Expenditure (B$) CRUISE VISITORS Per Visit Expenditure (B$) 50,00 50.00 52 „ 00 55.00 0,0 Total Expenditure (B$ Mill.) 17.6 22.5 24 c 8 31 « 8 27.4 10.2 28,2 412.4 494.7 20 o 0 13.5 6.0 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURE OF STOP-OVER AND CRUISE VISITORS (B$ Mill«) \j Excludes transitso Source; 561.7 2/ Occupancy rate for Grand = 65o4 and 62,5; Family Annual Report on Tourism., 1979; Tourism 1980, Ministry of Tourism, Bahamas; and 595 o5 Bahama in 1978 and 1979 Islands - 41-6 and 48„1, Statistic.', December data snpplip.d CEPAL, i - 21 - BAHAMAS TABLE < VIII BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Millions of Current Bahamas Dollars) , : : 1976r 1977 -261 -274 149 r : r 1978 : : : I P I979P 1980 -346 -452 -632 136 146 171 201 -410 -410 -492 - -628 -833 339 347 394 461 608 319 353 428 498 513 20 -6 -35 -37 95 -12 -13 -15 Balance on Current Account 66 60 33 5 -26 Capital Account -4 50 -25 -27 7 9 40 -26 4 5 -10 4 -11 21 36 -15 - - Merchandise Exports Import s e.i.f. Services Travel Other Net Transfer Payments Long-term Capital Officiai Private Sector Short-term Capital 1/ - - l o 9 -3 - 4 - 8 - Other Capital- -13 10 1 -31 2 Errors and Omissions -68 -90 -17 -42 -33 6 -20 8 -20 14 Reserve Movements (minus sign indicates an increase) 1/ Includes net transactions of authorized dealers and other financial institutions, N.B. Totals may not agree because of rounding. Source: Data supplied to CEPAL by Central Bank of Bahamas. I I - 22 - BAHAMAS TABLE IX RETAIL PRICE INDEX (NEW PROVIDENCE ISLAND) (Nov/Dec 1971 = 100) 1977 Consumer Price Index Food Housing Clothing and Footwear Transport Health and Personal Care Recreation and Reading Other Goods and Services 1978 1979P Annual Averages 1980P 147.5 156.5 170.7 191.3 153.9 131.8 15 7.1 157.2 145.0 151.1 146.8 166.4 135.9 166,9 169.2 153.9 157.1 153.5 184.6 144.7 187.8 180.2 165.6 170.6 166.5 212.5 158.4 216.9 201.1 180.9 181.4 178.6 Annual Average: Variation— Consumer Price Index Food Housing Clothing and Footwear Transport Health and Personal Care Recreation and Reading Other Goods and Services 3.1 6,2 9.1 12.1 1.9 3.3 2.8 6.7 4.0 4.7 4.1 8.2 3.1 6.2 7.6 6.1 4.0 4,5 10.9 6.5 12.5 Ó.6 7.6 8.6 8.5 15.1 9.5 15.5 11.6 9.2 6.3 7.3 % December to December Variation Consumer Price Index Food Housing Clothing and Footwear Transport Health and Personal Care Recreation and Reading Other Goods and Services 4.6r 6.6 11.6 12.1 5.3 2.8 2.2 8.0 4.8 3.7 5.6 8.3 4.8 8.5 4.2 8.3 7.2 3.6 15.0 6.9 16.8 9.4 7.0 6.7 10.5 15.4 10.5 12.1 12.1 12.4 6.4 5.8 1/ Percentage changes in the averages of the twelve-monthly .indexes. N.B. New Providence Island contains some 60 percent of the total population and attracts more than half the number of tourists. Source: Retail Price Index (Monthly), Department of Statistics, Bahamas, and data supplied CEPAL. BAHAMAS TABLE X MONETARY BALANCE (B$ Mill.) P l Annual Growth Rate 19781" 1979l 1980F 1976 1979 1980 1977 Money Supply (M^) 83.7 92.3 106.4 135.4 141.0 10.2 15.2 27.2 4.1 20.3 63.4 23.1 69.2 26.4 80.0 29.7 105.7 33.3 107.7 13.8 9.1 14.3 15.6 12.5 32.1 12.1 1.9 Factors of Expansion 286.5 324.2 358.9 439.1 518.6 13.2 10.7 22.3 18,1 a) b) 2, 1978 a) b) 1. 1977 (75.3) (70.4) (73.4) (24.5) (4.8) 361.8 394.6 432.3 463.6 523.4 Currency outside banks Demand deposits Foreign assets (Net) Domestic credit i) ii) iii) 3. Government (Net) Other local Financial Institutions Private sector (4.3) 9.6 (-66,6) (-80.4) 7.2 12.9 81.6 99.0 87.1 79.8 -8.3 21.3 -12,0 -9,1 2„5 1.8 311.2 270.3 2.2 331.1 7.4 369.1 4.0 439.6 »28,0 15.1 22.2 6.4 236,4 11.5 -45.9 19.1 187.5 195.5 216.1 245.6 313 = 3 4.3 10.5 13 « 7 27,6 48.8 110.2 54.6 116,7 66.5 123.3 83.0 134.1 94.7 178.7 11.9 5.9 21.8 5.7 24.8 8.8 14.1 33.3 22.0 18.1 22.3 21,5 34.2 -17.7 23.2 -3.6 59.1 6.5 6.1 4.0 7.0 5.7 -6.2 -34,4 75,0 -18.6 15.3 36.4 36.4 58.1 64.3 137;. 9 59.6 10.7 89.0 Factors of Absorption a) Quasi money of which: i) ii) iii) 4. -(6.5) 9.1 Savings deposits Time deposits Deposit in foreign currency iv) Due to other local Financial Institutions 1/ Other Items (Net)- 1/ Other Items = 2. a) + 2. b) - 1. a) - 1. b) - 3. a). Source: Quarterly Review, September 1980, Central Bank of the Bahamas, and data supplied CEPAL. - BAHAMAS TABLE Xiri QUARTERLY ANALYSIS OF LOANS AND ADVANCES (As of December each year) (B$ Mill.) Sector Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 1977 1978 1979 1980 1.2 1.5 2.6 3.4 25.0 73,3 30.8 Manufacturing 12.5 6.7 1.2 0.6 -46.3 -82,1 -50,1 Hotels, Clubs, Restaurants and Nightclubs 51.1 39.0 38 o 0 29.4 -23.7 -2.6 -22.8 Trade and Commerce 32.3 44,3 50.0 55,7 37.2 12.9 11.4 7.2 22-4 21.5 38.1 200.1 -4.0 77,2 Building and Construction 36.0 35.4 36.6 44.5 -1.7 3.4 21.6 Real Estate 35.0 54.5 42.8 46.1 55.7 -21.5 7.7 131.2 124.0 170.8 214.1 -5.5 37.7 25.4 306.7 327.8 363.5 431.0 6,9 10.9 18.8 Agriculture Utilities (Water, Electricity and Transportation) Personal/Other Local Loans TOTAL Source: Quarterly Review, September 1980, Central Bank of the Bahamas and data supplied CEPAL. BAHAMAS TABLE XII CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (B$ Mill.) Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980P 246,1 19.1 22.5 20.7 175.6 201.1 17,9 25.5 14.5 96.8 119,0 140.0 19.2 22.9 17.6 9.2 10.9 15.9 16.1 18.5 45.9 1.3 8.3 11.3 14.3 15,8 36,1 26.5 10,5 20.0 20.9 26.4 29.2 4,5 26.3 10.6 Non-tax Revenue 21.0 26.4 28.2 45,0 25,7 6.8 59 c 6 RECURRENT EXPENDITURE 136.0 157.6 178.8 208,1 15.9 13.5 16,4 98,9 48,0 31,9 (25,0) 114.7 57,3 36,1 (38,0) 1977 1978 1979 RECURRENT INCOME 139.7 166.3 203,8 Tax revenue 118.7 139.9 81.2 Services Stamp of which: Import All others Personal Emoluments Goods and Services Transfer Payments and Subsidies Savings on Current Account 91.3 38.3 28,0 (3.7) (8.7) 8.3 14,7 25,3 19,3 15.2 13.9 (135.1) (187,4) 20,0 19,4 13.2 (52,0) Capital Formation Acquisition of Assets Other TOTAL EXPENDITURE Net Lending (- - repayment) Deficit (-) or surplus (+) Total National Debt at end of period 23.7 28,3 26,3 38,8 19.9 -7.1 47.5 18 c 4 0.1 5.2 11.0 15.4 22.7 -39,9 40.0 47.4 11.8 5.5 - - - - 10,9 16,1 5,8 98.2 47,7 159 = 6 185.9 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Source: 79.6 32.1 24.3 1980P 205.1 246,9 16.5 10.3 20.4 - 9.4 -29.3 16.3 -35.9 6,9 -8,2 7,0 -7,8 73.4 22.5 -57,7 -77,1 1.4 -4.9 218.7 233-0 260« 6 243.1 6.5 11.9 -6,7 Quarterly Review, September 1980, Central Bank of the Bahamas, and data supplied CEPAL, BAHAMAS TABLE Xiri INSTALLED CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY Year Industrial and Public Total Thermal Hydro Industrial— Thermal Total Total Public Thermal 250.2 250.2 - 49,62/ 248,2 248.2 - Hydro Hydro Installed Capacity ('000 kW) 1976 00 9 - o c e 1977 297.8 297.8 - 49 1978 295,4 295,4 - 49.5 49.5 245.5 245.5 - 1979 310.1 — 49,9 49.9 260,2 260.2 — 608.6 608 „6 - 641.2 641.2 - 692.6 - 1980 371,6 310.1 P 371.6 > P Production (Million kWh) 1976 608.6 608.6 1977 699.0 699.0 - .1978 787.5 787.5 1979 828.6 828,6 ... - 1980 2/ 57.8- 57. - 94.9 94 = 9 692.6 - 92.9 92.9 735.7 - 1/ Include foreign Government bases. N.B. & ... - - 2/ Cement plant out of operation most of the year. Total and Public production exclude some generation at Government installations on family islands - 0.5 MW of capacity in 1978. Source; - Annual Report (several issues), Bahamas Ministry of Works and Utilities, Bahamas. BAHAMAS TABLE XIV OIL IMPORTS FOR LOCAL CONSUMPTION Year Propane Motor Gasolene D Aviation Gasolene 0 M E S T I C Kerosene Bunker (Jet Fuel) . "C" TOTAL Gas Lubricants Domestic Oil and Other Consumption 1977 96 709 31 Volume '000 Barrels 166 829 919 1978 101 800 42 183 1,351 1979 116 888 42 192 1980 125 851 41 134 Foreign Bunkers TOTAL Local Consumption 9 2,758 4,600 .7,357 973 33 3,484 5,417 8,900 1,626 1,098 35 3,998 6,280 10,278 1,315 1,164 36 3,666 4,543 8,209 Value (B$ Million) 1977 1.4 13.3 0.8 2.8 10.8 14.7 0.7 44.5 60.6 105.1 1978 1.2 15.3 1.1 3.1 16.5 16.0 1.4 54.7 73.5 128.3 1979 1.8 25.3 1.7 5.5 28.4 29.3 1.8 93.8 83.0 176.8 1980 2.6 34.6 2.7 5.8 31.1 47.0 2.3 126.3 170.4 296.6 Source: Quarterly Review, December 1980, Vol. 7 No. 4, Central Bank of Bahamas. - 28 BAHAMAS TABLE XV RETAIL PRICES OF.SELECTED PETROLEUM.: PRODUCTS (Cents per imperial gallon) Period Gasolene Hi-test Octane Kerosene Diesel Oil Fuel Oil LPG per 100 lbs 1972 0.71 - 0.54 0.47 - 13.00 1976 1.07 1.12 0.96 0.79 - 20.00 1977 1.07 1.15 1.01 0.80 - 20.00 1978 1.09 1.18 1.02 0.80 - 20.00 1979 1.30 1.38 1.20 1.02 - 23.00 1980 1.50 1.56 1.35 1.46 - 27.50 Source; Data supplied to CEPAL by official sources. I I PART IV BARBADOS COUNTRY NOTES I ( ( I I I I I I ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 BARBADOS ±. (Barbados dollars used throughout)— Real growth of the Barbadian economy slowed down to about 5 percent in 1980 as output did not keep pace with price increases. Government estimates put the Total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost in current prices for 1980 to be of the order of $1,461.1 million. Per capita GDP at factor cost, and in current prices was estimated at some $5,868. The 18 percent increase in the production of sugar was to some extent attributable to favourable weather conditions during the cropping season, which in turn favourably affected the sucrose content of the canes. The effects of higher prices for the commodity in the face of a shortfall in world production and increased output combined to procure for Barbados, foreign exchange earnings of some $112.5 million from the sale of sugar. In the Tourism Sector, the slight drop in tourist arrivals seemed to have been associated with economic recession in North America and Balance of Payments problems in Europe. Mainly as a result of price increases, revenue earnings are estimated to have increased by some 22 percent. The sugar bonanza and the increased revenue from tourism did not prevent an increase in the deficit position of Merchandise Trade which worsened by 12.0 percent from the 1979 level. An estimated near 26 percent increase in the value of imports put the import bill at some $1,049 million, and contributed to a negative balance on Current Account of some $32 million. Capital account transactions, however, secured for the economy a Balance of Payments surplus of $40 million, and an increase in international reserves of $25.1 million. 1/ Subsequent to July 1975, the Barbados dollar has been linked to the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 = Barbados $2.00. - 2 - The Central Bank sought to neutralize the adverse effect of the salary increases on the general price level by encouraging savings and at the same time discouraging commercial banks from seeking temporary advances from the Central Bank. Manufacturing production as measured by the Index of Industrial production increased by some 6 percent in 1980, with a significant increase in the production of chemicals having been observed. Construction activity increased somewhat in 1980 in response to private sector activity, especially the provision of.more tourist accommodation. In recognition of the increasing cost of conventionally derived energy, and its adverse effects on the Balance of Payments, Government moved to develop institutional capabilities in the energy sector by the creation of an Energy and Natural Resources Division. This Division has begun the tasks of collating all data pertinent to Energy and acting as catalyst to the implementation of Government policies in this area. Much activity in the areas of exploration for petroleum and natural gas and of researching the viability of alternative sources of energy was undertaken, the quest being to achieve cheaper sources of energy. Government implemented the personal income tax reform as articulated in the Budget Speech of 1980. The tax reliefs in addition to wage and salary increases were major determinants of the 17.9 percent increase in the Total Money Supply at year end 1980. PERFORMANCE IN THE MAJOR SECTORS Agriculture (including sugar manufacturing) Agricultural GDP at current prices of 1980 is estimated to have been of the order of $143.7 million - a 31.7 percent increase over the 1979 figure. The sugar industry recorded its highest output since 1971, producing some 2/ 135,000 tonnes of sugar, despite the late start of harvesting operations.— 2 / The harvesting season was longer in 1980 than in previous years. _ Mechanical harvesting was relied on to a greater extent than previously, in the face of shortages of labour. _ 3 This improved performance was due in part to favourable weather conditions for the crop, and a slight increase in acreage reaped. A continued high incidence of unplanned cane fires detracted from the 1980 performance. Total loss from cane fires was estimated at approximately $3,0 million. The average cost of production of sugar rose by some 7 percent in 1980, pushed by a 28 percent wage increase granted to sugar workers. Higher prices on the world market resulted in an increase in the average export price of some 25.5 percent above the level of the previous year of $714.0 per tonne. An analysis of the non-sugar agricultural sector would indicate stagnation or a possible fall in output of the sector in 1980, due in part to unseasonal weather conditions. Production of onions increased some 23 percent to 671,000 kg. in 1980. Average yields improved as a result of greater precaution taken against blast. Production of root crops was estimated to have fallen below the level of 1979, with the output of carrots, tomatoes, beans and sweet potatoes estimated at having been below the level of the previous year. Pork deliveries to the processing plant increased to 337,498 kg. - a 60 percent rise over the 1979 figure. By mid-year 1980, chicken and milk production had shown signs of at least maintaining the level of the previous year. By year end, milk production was estimated to have increased very slightly over the level of the previous year, while chicken production fell by an estimated 35 percent. Fishing output (in the coastal waters off Barbados) was relatively low, with shrimping continuing for about the third year to show little or no signs of activity. Some of the equipment procured for these operations was converted and is being used as coastguard vessels. Additionally, a substantial part of the fishing fleet, as well as much equipment, were damaged or lost in the hurricane of 1980. The net result was a 20 percent drop in fish landings. - 4 Table 1 Sugar Production - Hectares and Average Yields Hectares reaped Canes Milled '000 tonnes Average Yields M.T. Canes , per Sugar per hectare hectare Sugar produced ('000 tonnes) 1976 15,890 919 57.8 6.5 104 1977 15,765 1,046 66.3 7.6. , 120 1978 15,854 895 56.8 6.3, 101 1,052 66.3 1,205 ., 74.9 . - 3979 - -1-5 ,-880 16,096 1980 - . 7.1 : 114 8.2 , 135 Source : Barbados Sugar.. Review, No. 41, , September 1980, Barbados Sugar Producers' Association, and data supplied CEPAL. Manufacturing Prepared data on the sector's contribution to GDP indicate a 22 percent increase over the 1979 figure of $130.6 million. This increase was due mainly to increased exports of manufactured products. The preliminary indications are that the Index of all industrial production increased to 175.4 points - an increase of about 6 percent. Significant increases were noted in the production of chemicals (25.2 . percent), quarrying (64.5 percent), electronic products (15 percent), and beverages and tobacco (9.4 percent). Smaller increases occurred in food processing, petro-products and non-metallic products. The production of wearing apparel was the least dynamic subsector of manufacturing in terms of rate of growth in 1980. The appreciable growth in the output of chemicals was to a great extent the result of increased demands for chemically-based products. Promotional drives by the Barbados Export Promotion Agency boosted the export of local manufactures to $337.6 million, 43.8 percent above that of 1979. The Barbados Industrial Development Corporation, according to its - 5 comprehensive action plan for 1978-1982, continued promoting industrial development by means of fiscal concessions, training and research. All these activities were responsible for the increased growth in the level of the sector's activities. Developments in Energy and Energy Policy The pressures deriving from the international petroleum situation, combined with a keen national governmental will to conserve conventional energy and expand alternative forms of energy, resulted in accelerated formulation and implementation of energy policies. Despite these policy implementations, the import bill for Petroleum and Petroleum products rose by 36.5 percent in 1980. Table XVII refers. Hydrocarbon-derived energy continued to be the major source of energy. Drilling operations by Mobil Exploration Corporation continued, with a concentration of activity in the Woodbourne area. By year end 1980, some 48.6 million litres of Crude Petroleum had been produced. Natural gas to the extent of 13,252 million cubic metres were produced - an increase of some 13.6 percent. Production of Gasoline fell slightly, while that of diesel oil increased some 16.1 percent above the level of the previous year. Fuel oil production increased by some 5.4 percent to 96.4 million litres. Import prices of crude petroleum increased some 35 percent in 1980. Retail prices of selected products appear at Table 2 below. Government continued to grant concessions by way of lower interest rates on loans to taxi drivers importing diesel-engined vehicles for use in the tourist industry. These concessions sought to encourage the shift away from the high priced gasoline to the lower-priced dieselene, and thus minimize the energy bill. A seismic survey was undertaken by Mobil Corporation in order to determine the hydrocarbon potential of the island. An aeromag- netic survey and a gravity survey also sought to determine the petroleum and natural gas resources. Funding was provided by the Inter American Development Bank to assist in the analysis of the results of the seismic survey. - 6In 1980, the Barbados Government continued to receive technical assistance in the organization and analysis of geological and geophysical data, the control of drilling practices, the review and development of petroleum legislation, and the estimation and analysis of oil and gas reservoirs. In October, a considerable amount of the natural gas previously vented was taken up by the Barbados Light and Power Company for use in the generation of part of its electricity output, the effect being to lessen the dependence on imports of fuel. Table 2 Retail Prices of Selected Petroleum Products (Dollars per imperial gallon) Commodity 1977 1978 1979 1980 Gasoline 2.00 2,42 3.52 3.82 Kerosene 1.05 1.10 2.19 2.47 Source : Barbados Statistical Service„ In Alternative Sources of Energy, the Government, through the Energy and Natural Resources Unit has been researching new and renewable sources of energy including solar, wind, wave, bagasse and biogas. The Hotel Sector has been studying the use of solar energy as a means of supplementing traditionally generated electricity. The Barbados Govern- ment and the Light and Power Company have applied for a grant from the Inter American Development Bank for procuring a 50-*kilowatt wind generator The Government will use expertise from the Barbados Light and Power Company to install, operate and maintain the equipment for a period of not less than one year. Grid. The electricity generated will be fed into the National After 1983 larger wind generators of 200-kilowatt will be introduced on the basis of the performance of the 50-kilowatt generator, and on the basis of a study of its effect on the noise level and on television - 7 interference, among other factors. At least two foreign-based companies have expressed interest in setting up wind turbines at their own expense and selling the electricity at a reasonable price to the local power company. Experiments conducted in mid-1980 successfully fed electricity derived from bagasse into the national grid. One conclusion is that an exhaustive feasibility survey of the use of bagasse for energy production vis-a-vis its alternative uses needs to be undertaken. Biogas as an alternative source of energy gained the attention of Barbados farmers during 1980. Farmers have recognized the potential of the use of animal wastes for the generation of methane gas for farm use. The commercialization of this means of production of energy is being pursued. Government moved to develop institutional capabilities in the energy sector, and created an Energy and Natural Resources Division. This Division will co-ordinate and manage all activities related to energy and natural resources. Construction Real growth in the sector levelled off somewhat in 1980, with the increased value of the sector's output being due mainly to higher prices. Public Sector activity included continuation of work on roads, public utilities and housing. Encouragement was given for increased private sector activity in construction while rising incomes promoted greater demand for housing, and expectations in the tourism industry reinforced construction of tourist accommodation. A 3 percent increase in beds available to tourists resulted to a great extent from the construction of new accommodation units, and the renovation of existing units. The effect of these circumstances was a general increase in the level of the sector's activity which ultimately inflated the - 8prices of already scarce building materials. Moreover, the relative inadequacy of skilled labour to service this sector, as well as wage demands and industrial action contributed somewhat to higher costs in the industry. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Two quarterly labour force surveys were conducted in 1980 and yielded an estimated labour force of 114.8 thousand - an increase of 5 . 3 . p _ _ . n t over the previous year 's total. ,_..erce._ Of the total-labour-force', 52,700 were females - a percentage of 45.9 of the total. Of the female labour force, some 83.3 percent were employed. Unemployment as a percentage of the total labour force for both sexes fell to 12.6 percent in 1980 from 12.8 percent in the previous year. In order to upgrade the level of skills of the labour force, the Government, through the Ministry of Labour, embarked on a Skills Training Programme under which training centres were established to upgrade worker skills in Construction and Manufacturing. THE EXTERNAL SECTOR Exports Sugar and tourism remained the leaders in foreign exchange earnings. Of the total production of some 135,000 tonnes of sugar some 116,000 tonnes of sugar were exported. This coincided with a shortfall in world sugar product ion for 1979/1980, resulting in sharp increases in the price of 3/ sugar.— Foreign exchange earnings were $106 million - an estimated increase of 82 percent above its export earnings in 1979. As regards tourism, though there continued to be high numbers of arrivals, they were not of the order to sustain the previous year's rate of _3/ As at 30 June 1980, sugar to EEC countries was priced at 341 E.C.U's (£211.15) per tonne. Shipments after that date yielded some 358.9 E.C.U's (£222.04) per tonne. - 9 growth of some 17 percent. In 1980, tourist arrivals are estimated to have fallen slightly below the previous year's level by less than 1 percent, and this slight drop has been attributed to the recession and balance of payments problems in North America and in Europe. One major European market was adversely affected, but, the CARICOM and United Kingdom tourist markets continued to grow. Although winter arrivals in 1980 were estimated to have been some 4 percent greater than in 1979, arrivals began to decline in the summer of 1980. To some extent the estimated 20 percent increase in hotel rates in 1980 might have adversely affected arrivals, and certainly contributed to an estimated tourist expenditure of $502 million. - 10 Table - 3 Tourist Arrivals by Month 1976-1980 (Excluding Cruise Ship Passengers) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 January 20,487 25,151 28,563 33,182 34,549 February 24,567 28,211 31,327 33,950 37,928 March 22,196 25,807 32,996 34,063 35,663 April 21,837 26,141 25,064 34,432. .33,430 May 13,425 14,914 17,671 22,752 25,292 June 11,259 13,260 16,221 21,694 22,441 July 18,807 22,440 26,894 31,340 32,782 August 21,516 26,305 3.1,058 37,662 36,484 September 12,228 15,958 19,614 23,958 21,422 October 15,662 18,758 23,279 26,938 25,516 November 18,739 24,002 30,055 34,358 30,884 December 23,591 28,367 34,141 36,587 33,524 1/ X = 18692.8 X = 22442.8 2/ I » > I i i i < < ( I I I I - 16 - BARBADOS TABLE I MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1977 1979 1980 Gross domestic product at factor cost (current prices) $M 874.6 A. 1978 980.3 1,189.7 1,461.1 BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS Per capita gross domestic product (current prices) Population ('000) (mid-year) 3,555r 246 3,967r 4,793r 5,868r 247.1 248.2 249.0 Annual Growth Rates B. SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Gross domestic product 11.0 12.1 21.4 22.8 ... 11.6 20.8 22.4 Current value of exports of goods and services 26.0 25.1 30.0r 26.9P Current value of imports of goods and services 14, .1 16, .4 31, .7 29. P ,9 Consumer price index December-December 9, ,9 11, .3 .8 16, 19. P ,3 Variation between annual averages 8, ,3 9, .5 ,2 13, 14. ,5 Money supply (M_) 14, ,3 ,7 21, ,6 39, ,4 11. 1/ Wages and salaries- ,2 15. 15, .5 . ,, . 30, ,0 Rate of unemployment (%) 15. 12, ,4 ,8 11, i Current income of Government 16. ,6 24, ,6 18, r ,9 27. P ,9 Total expenditure of Government 22, ,3 6, ,7 ,6 19. r 22, P ,0 Fiscal deficit as a percentage of total expenditure of Government 25. 9 12.0 13. 5 11.2 Per capita gross domestic product i « - 17 TABLE I (CONT'D) MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1977 1978r 1980p 1979 BDS$ Million EXTERNAL SECTOR £ Trade balance (goods and services) -124 -97 -112 -86 -92 -63 -68 -32 Variation in net international reserves $ 16 55.7 31.9 30.7 External debt $M 55 89 112,1 163.9 Balance on current account \J Data relate to rough average annual percentage increase, 2/ Data relate to July—December. Source : Barbados Economic Report 1978, Ministry of Finance and Planning April 1978. Annual Statistical Digest 1977, Central Bank of Barbados. Economic and Financial Statistics January 1981, Central Bank of Barbados. Balance of Paymen ts of Barbados 1978, Central Bank of Barbados, and data supplied CEPAL. STATISTICAL APPENDIX GRENADA 1980 < I I BARBADOS TABLE II GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT FACTOR COST (BDS$ Mill.) In current-value National currency 1978 r 1979 r 1980 p ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Agriculture Percentage Breakdown 1975 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 91.7 109.1 143.7 13.3 9.8 -0.1 19.0 31.7 7.1 9.3 12.2 0.2 0.8 53.5 31.0 31.2 108.1 130.6 159.4 10.3 10.9 24.4 20.8 22.1 75.1 88.1 104.5 6.6 7.2 24.9 17.3 18.6 282.0 337.1 419.8 30.4 28.7 15.8 19.5 24.5 Electricity, gas and water 15.7 18.3 22.0 1.5 1.5 11.4 16.6 20.2 Transport, storage and communication 64.2 70.1 86.9 7.2 6.0 7.0 9.2 24.0 79.9 88.4 108.9 8.7 7.5 7.8 10.6 23.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade 204.8 259.4 319.0 18.2 21.8 12.5 26.7 23.0 Tourism 109.7 144.0 175.0 9.3 12.0 25.0 31.3 21.5 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Sèrvices 115.6 135.0 162 .5 14 .0 11.1 4.9 16.8 20.4 37.8 46.1 57 .6 4 .4 4.0 8.0 22.0 24.9 150.6 179.6 218 .2 15 .1 14.9 5.9 19.3 21.5 618.5 764.1 932 .3 61 .0 63.8 11.0 23.5 22.0 980.4 1,189.7 1,461 .1 100 .0 100.0 12.1 "21. 3 22.8 Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Construction Sub-total goods Sub-total basic services General Services Government Services Sub-total other services TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Source: Barbados Statistical Service and Barbados Economic. Report 1980, Ministry of Finance and Planning. BARBADOS TABLE III INDICATORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Unit (Metric) Annual Growth Rate 1977r 1978r 1979* 1980P 1978r 1979r 1980 -14 o 6 17,5 14,5 -44.4 -1-13,3 -54,7 Production of main crops Sugar-cane '000 tons Cotton '000 k g 895 1,052 15 17 4,989 4,989 2,219 4,631 0.0 -55,5 108,7 5,896 6,851 5,909 7,700 16.2 -13.7 30,3 1,045 2 7 1,205 7 . 1 Root crops Sweet potatoes '000 kg Yams l i Vegetables 386 726 702 1,636 88..1 -3.3 133,0 Cucumbers I T 1,633 1,755 2,104 818 7.5 19.9 -61.1 Cabbages 1 1 980 816 1,130 1,717 -16.7 38.5 51.9 Onions I I 693 743 545 671 7.2 -26,6 23.1 Tomatoes '000 kg Indicators of stock-raising Production Slaughtered (meat) 170 249 324 414 46.5 30,1 27.8 Pork H 1,587 1,336 802 918 -15.8 -40.0 14.5 Mutton H 34 21 40 Poultry H 3,711. 4,261 5,273 Eggs H 1,701 1,814 1,600 Milk Ï Î 2,641 2,933 3,192 Beef and veal Source; '000 kg -38 = 2 90.5 5,248 14.8 23,8 -0.5 1,040 6,6 -11.8 -35.0 0 9 « 11.1 8,8 Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Affairs, Bridgetown, Barbados. BARBADOS TABLE IV INDICATORS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Weight 1970 = 100 I 1977* 1978r 1979r 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 Production Index Total all Industries 1,000 144.8 159.2 165.3 175.4 9.9 3.8 6.1 29 81.6 83.7 66.2 108.9 2.6 -20.9 64.5 800 145.4 158.1 160.9 170.7 8.7 1.8 6.1 Food 151 152.0 160.4 168.0 173.7 5.5 4.7 3.5 Beverages and Tobacco 170 124.4 139.4 114.4 125.1 12.1 -17.9 9.4 Wearing apparel 111 169.1 159.7 169.2 165.4 -5.6 5.9 2.3 Chemicals 29 109.9 119.0 119.7 149.9 8.3 0.6 25.2 Petro-products 38 115.5 118.8 127.7 133.3 2.9 7.5 4.4 Electronic products 40 498.4 598.0 687.7 20.0 15.0 Other non-metallic products 42 76.8 81.2 98.7 105.4 5.7 21.6 6.8 Other manufactures 259 165.3 134.9 131.4 134.0 -18.4 -2.6 2.0 171 153.0 176.9 199.5 208.9 15.6 12.8 4.7 Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and Gas - - TABLE IV (CONT'D) INDICATORS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Unit (Metric) II 1977 1978 1979 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 Production of some Manufactures Sugar '000 tonnes 120 101 114 132 -15.8 12.9 15.8 Rum '000 litres I T 10,656 10,683 7,464 10,170 0. 3 -30.1 36.3 7,310 9,046 7,383 8,578 23. 7 -18.4 16.2 1,965 2,361 2,074 2,238 20.2 -12.2 7.9 Lard '000 kg H 1,240 1,481 1,259 1,453 19.4 -15.0 15.4 Malt beverages '000 litres 3,150 4,332 2,914 3,300 37.5 -32.7 13.2 18,225 19,761 19,916 18,916 8.4 0.8 -5.0 '000 tonnes 38 35 40 39 -7.9 14.3 -2.5 '00 tonnes 97 97 98 100 1.0 2.0 190 229 230 224 20.5 0.4 -2.6 19.7 43.5 45.1 48.6 120.8 3.7 7.8 4,700 9,599 11,667 13,252 104. 2 21.5 13.6 52.1 52.9 55.4 55.1 1.5 4.7 -0.5 33.9 40.1 42.8 49.7 18.3 6.7 16.1 82.3 78.9 91.5 96.4 -4.1 16.0 5.4 Beer Margarine Non-alcoholic beverages Animal feeds Milk products—^ H Cigarettes '000 kg Crude petroleum Mn. litres Natural gas Thousand m Gasoline Mn. litres H Diesel oil Fuel oil H 3 TABLE IV (CONT'D) INDICATORS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Unit (Metric) III 1977 1978 1979 1980 246 269 296 310 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 Other Indicators of Manu facturing Production Electricity generated Mn. KWh 1/ Production of milk products converted to the fresh milk equivalent. Source: Monthly Digest of Statistics, Statistical Services, Barbados. Barbados Economic Report 1980, Ministry of Finance and Planning. 9.3 10.0 4.7 BARBADOS TABLE V SELECTED DATA ON EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT V January-December 1978 ¥ January-December 1979 January-December 1980 Both Sexes Both Sexes Both Sexes Number ('000) Number ('000) Number ('000) Total number of adults 168.3 171.0 174.2 Labour force 102.6 109.0 114.8 Employed 88.8 95.0 100.3 Unemployed 13.8 14.0 14.5 Not in the labour force 65.7 62.0 59.4 Unemployed as percent of labour force (%) 13.4 12.8 12.6 Labour force as percent of total adults (%) 61.0 63.7 65.9 Source : Economic Report 1980, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Barbados. BARBADOS TABLE VI SELECTED DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY TYPE OF PRODUCTS 1977 Bds$ Mill. 1978 1979 % Breakdown 1977 1980 1978 50.6 47.0 58.0 104.3 33.5 30.9 -7.1 23.4 79.8 Molasses 5.8 6.7 7.8 11.9 3.8 3.5 15.5 16.4 52.6 Rum 5.7 6.0 4.8 3.5 3.8 1.0 5.3 -20.0 -27.1 Lard and margarine 3.7 5.4 4.3 6.1 2.4 1.8 45.9 -20.4 41.9 65.8 65.1 74.9 125.8 43.5 37.3 -1.1 15.1 68.0 Clothing 37.2 40.6 45.9 49.3 24.6 14.6 9.1 13.1 7.4 Electrical components 16.5 37.9 40.4 61.1 10.9 18.1 129.7 6.6 51.2 Sub-total 53.7 78.5 98.8 110.4 35.5 32.7 46.2 25.9 11.7 Petroleum Products 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 20.0 0.0 Total Selected Domestic Exports 120.0 144.1 174.3 236.8 79.1 70.1 20.1 21.0 35.9 TOTAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS 151.1 187.8 234.8 337.6 100.0 100.0 24.3 25.0 43.8 Category 1980 % Change 1979 1980 Main Traditional Exports Sugar Sub-total Non-traditional Exports Source; External Trade Publications, Statistical Service and data supplied CEPAL. Economic and Financial Statistics (various issues), Central Bank, Barbados, BARBADOS TABLE VII RETAINED IMPORTS BY ECONOMIC FUNCTION AND/OR USE 1977-1980 1977 Consumer Goods Bds$ Mill. 1978 1979 1980 % Breakdown 1977 1980 1978 % Change 1979 1980 204.6 228.1 279.8 342.3 40.5 36.8 11.5 22.7 22.3 Food and beverages 103.2 122.7 137.2 163.5 20.4 17.6 18.9 11.8 19.2 Other non-durables 51.5 54.0 74.8 140.0 10.2 15.0 4.9 38.5 87.2 Durables 25.6 21.6 29.5 38.8 5.1 4.2 -15.6 36.6 31.5 167.3 166.0 283.9 323.6 33.1 34.8 -0.8 71.0 14.0 Fuels 47.4 23.1 92.3 108.0 9.4 11.6 -51.3 299.6 17.0 Textiles 25.6 27.1 37.8 39.3 5.1 4.2 5.9 39.5 4.0 Others 48.8 63.7 153.8 176.3 9.7 18.9 30.5 141.4 14.6 Capital Goods 116.9 142.1 206.9 267.6 23.2 28.7 21.6 45.6 29.3 Machinery 79.6 100.9 150.5 187.4 15.8 20.1 26.8 49.2 24.5 Construction and Materials 37.3 41.2 56.4 80.3 7.4 8.6 10.5 36.9 42.4 15.9 17.8 8.9 2.5 3.1 0.3 11.9 -50.0 -71.9 TOTAL RETAINED IMPORTS 504.9 353.9 779.5 931.0 100.0 100.0 9.7 120.3 19.4 TOTAL IMPORTS 545.1 628.2 850.7 1,049.1 15.2 35.4 23.3 Intermediate Goods Unclassified Goods Source: - - Economic and Financial Statistics, June 1979, Central Bank of Barbados, and data supplied CEPAL. - 26 - BARBADOS TABLE VIII BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: 1976-1980 (BDS$ Mill.) 1978r 1979P 1980P 1976 1977 324.4 -363 .2 -406.5 -566 .0 -634.0 Exports 152.6 182 .4 223. 1 264 .5 415.0 Imports 477.0 545 .6 629. 6 170.6 239 .3 309. 9 454 .2 548.0 Travel 150.2 204 .5 257. 3 347 .7 471.0 Other 20.4 34 .8 52.6 106 .5 77.0 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 153.8 -123 .9 -96.5 -111 .8 -86.0 25.4 31 .9 33.6 43 .9 54.0 •128.4 -92 .0 -62.9 -67 .9 -32.0 44.2 38 .9 24.2 20 .0 88.0 5.4 11 .1 12.0 10 .5 52.0 38.8 27 .8 12.2 10 .8 44.0 Short term 4.7 10 .0 30.6 79, .5 -14.5 Other capital 1.1 10 .9 6. 2 -9 .6 -8.0 Errors and Omissions 42.5 26 .2 40. 3 35, .7 -16.0 Balance for official financing -36.0 -6 .0 38. 3 22 .1 40.0 4, .5 -1.0 MERCHANDISE (Net) SERVICES (Net) NET TRANSFER PAYMENTS BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT -830 .5 -1,049.0 CAPITAL ACCOUNT Long term Official Private sector Allocation of SDR's - Official financing (loans) 35, .1 20.0 -4, .0 -15.0 .2 -29, -58.3 -18. .1 -25.1 Reserve movements (- increase; + decrease) 36.0 Source : Balance of Payments of Barbados 1978, and data supplied CEPAL. BARBADOS TABLE IX-A SELECTED TOURISM STATISTICS 1977 1978 1979 1980 Number of stop-over visitors ('000) 269. 3 316.9 370. 9 370.0 Cruise ship visitors ('000) 103. 1 140. 1 110. 1 156.5 Average number of hotel beds available ('000) 10.2 11.1 11.9 12.6 Hotel bed occupancy rate 54. 1 58.2 68.8 68.9 221.0 270.0 403.0 502.0 7.2 9.5 11.0 14.6 10.3 11.6 11. 7 12.0 Estimated Tourist Expenditure (Bds$ Mill.) Hotel and Restaurant Tax (Bds$ Mill.) Average length of stay (days) Source : Economic Report 1980, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Barbados, and data supplied CEPAL. BARBADOS TABLE IX-B TOURIST ARRIVALS AND CRUISE SHIP VISITORS 1977-1980 BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Unit = 000 arrivals Country of origin NUMBER OF ARRIVALS 1977 1978 1980 1979 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 U« S o A« 70.4 85.5 91.4 86.0 21.4 6.9 -5.9 Canada 83.7 91.0 92.7 85.0 8.7 1.9 -8.3 United Kingdom 25.5 36.3 49.4 56.2 42.4 36.1 13.8 Europe 22.9 29.2 40.8 38.4 27.5 39.7 -5.9 CARICOM countries 47.3 55.1 76.0 85.4 16.5 37.9 12.4 Other countries 17.5 19.8 20.6 19.0 13.1 4.0 -7.8 TOTAL STAY-OVER VISITORS 269.3 316.9 370.9 370.0 17.7 17.0 -0.2 Cruise ship visitors 103.1 140.1 110.1 156.5 35.9 -21.4 42.1 Source: Barbados Economic Report 1980, Ministry of Finance and Planning. - 29 BARBADOS TABLE X-A CONSUMER PRICE INDEX--(OCTOBER 1965 = 100) % Weight 1976 • 1977 1978 1979 1980* 487. 9* ANNUAL AVERAGES TOTAL: 100.0 All Items Food and Beverages Housing Household operations and furnishings Clothing Medical and personal care Transportation Education and Recreation 317.4 343.9 376.5 426.1 58.7 9.1 349.2 285.1 379.0 321.3 417.1 346.3 463.4 398.2 8.9 6.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 279.5 276.0 246.9 241.9 287.6 287.0 292.1 285.1 237.2 327.1 309.0 301.2 322.2 272.1 353.7 418.6 335.9 364.7 310.7 374.8 .. .e .. .. ANNUAL AVERAGE CHANGE TOTAL: 5.0 All Items Food and Beverages Housing Household operations and furnishings Clothing Medical and personal care Transportation Education and Recreation 8.3 9.5 13.2 . 4.2 6.5 8.5 12.7 10.1 7.8 11.1 15.0 2.0 9.3 4.4 8.8 10.7 2.7 5.8 15.5 -2.0 13.7 7.7 3.1 13.1 14.7 8.1 35.5 11.5 13.2 14.2 6.0 14 5 . . . . . • • % Change December-December TOTAL: All Items 3.9 Food and Beverages Housing Household operations and furnishings Clothing Medical and personal care Transportation Education and Recreation Source: 9.9 11.3 16.8 4.3 11.6 8.5 11.4 12.8 8.8 12.2 19.6 -1.4 6.5 -0.7 -10.9 8.1. 5.0 6.6 26.1 17.4 17.3 14.2 -0.7 11.7 10.7 6.2 49.2 35.8 13.4 23.5 4.3 16 1* Economic and Financial Statistics, January 1980, Central Bank of Barbados and data supplied CEPAL by Barbados Statistical Service. . . . . . BARBADOS TABLE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Food Months 1980 Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Housing Fuel and Light X-B (MARCH 1980 = 100) Household Clothing Operations and and Footwear Supplies All Transpor- Medical Education, tation Items and Recreation, Personal Miscellaneous Care W E I G H T 432 84 131 62 96 51 46 JANUARY 98.2 99.3 97.9 93.7 98.8 98.1 99.9 100.2 98.3 98.5 FEBRUARY 99.0 99.3 97.9 95.2 99.3 98.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.3 MARCH 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 APRIL 101.3 102.6 100.1 97.8 100.0 100.6 102.5 101.4 100.0 100.9 MAY 101.7 103.7 100.1 99.4 100.3 99.6 102.5 102.5 100.2 101.3 JUNE 104.1 106.8 100.8 99.3 102.6 107.7 102.7 103.0 100.2 103.4 JULY 105.6 107.8 100.8 99.4 103.3 105.7 102.6 103.4 100.2 104.1 AUGUST 105.1 109.4 101.1 103.4 103.7 107.4 104.7 104.0 100.5 SEPTEMBER 105.4 110.2 101.2 103.4 105.8 107.9 105.1 104.2 105.2 104.5r r 105.2 OCTOBER 106.9 112.1 101.2 103.4 106.5 112.9 105.3 105.0 105.2 106.4r NOVEMBER 108.0 114.5 101.2 107.7 107.8 113.3 105.3 105.6 107.3 107.6 DECEMBER 110.6 112.9 122.1 107.7 108.2 115.8 105.4 106.4 107.3 111.6 Source: Economic and Financial Statistics January 1980, Central Bank of Barbados and data supplied CEPAL by Barbados Statistical Service. 60 38 1000 BARBADOS TABLE XI MONETARY BALANCE: 1977-1980 Balance at end of December 1977 1978 1979 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 Currency outside banks 55.2 65.9 80.2 101.5 19.4 21.7 26.5 Demand deposits adjusted 79.7 98.3 149.0 153.9 23.3 51.7 3.3 134.9 164.2 229.2 255.4 21.7 39.6 11.4 Time deposits 150.9 170.4 193.8 223.4 12.9 13.7 15.3 Savings deposits 203.5 231.3 278.3 348.0 13.7 20.3 25.0 354.4 401.7 472.1 571.4 13.4 17.5 21.0 489.3 565.9 701.3 826.8 15.7 23.9 17.9 Money : Total (M1) Quasi Money: Total Quasi Money Total Money Supply Source: Economic and Financial Statistics, January 1981, Central Bank of Barbados. - 32 BARBADOS TABLE XII COMMERCIAL BANKS' CREDIT-SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION 1977-1980 (As at December) (BDS$ Mill.) Sectors 1977 1978 1979 1980 Agriculture (including fisheries) 20.0 20.0 17.6 20.3 4.3 0.3 0.5 1.4 Manufacturing 31.3 38.8 63.2 94.6 Distribution 63.9 68.5 68.4 87.6 Construction 38.2 36.1 44.7 39.4 Tourism (including entertainment) 50.8 50.1 51.8 71.1 Government 22.2 18.2 6.2 4.7 Public utilities 20.5 18.4 32.9 30.4 Personal 93.4 106.9 131.9 135.0 Other 27.6 35.3 53.0 62.1 372.2 395.5 470.3 546.6 Mining and Quarrying TOTAL Source: Economic and Financial Statistics, January 1981, Central Bank of Barbados, and data supplied CEPAL. - 33 BARBADOS TABLE XIII SELECTED DATA ON GOVERNMENT - OPERATIONS - 1977-1980 (BDS$ Mill.) 1977r 1978r 1979r 1980 Recurrent revenue 227.2 286.0 340.2 420.9 Recurrent expenditure 229.3 255.6 302.6 371.6 77.4 69.4 90.8 102.6 Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) (to be financed) -79.5 -39.0 -53.2 -53.3 National debt (as at end of year) 334.6 372.1 426.3 493.2 Internal 279.5 282.9 314.2 329.3 External 55.1 89.2 112.1 163.9 Treasury bills 114.4 132.1 149.4 164.2 Debentures 121.9 127.0 125.4 130.6 Capital expenditure Treasury bills and debentures outstanding Source : Compiled from data in Economic and Financial Statistics, February 1981, Central Bank of Barbados; and data supplied CEPAL. BARBADOS TABLE XIV CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION - CURRENT REVENUE - 1977-1980 (BDS$ Mill.) Calendar Year r / Head 1977/78 - TAX REVENUE r / 1978/79 - r / 1979/80 - r 1977 1978r 1979r 1980 218.6 271.7 318.3 203.1 251.7 306.0 373.1 106.0 132.7 139.7 91.4 127.3 131.5 158.7 Taxes on Property 11.5 13.1 17.8 16.1 7.6 21.8 20.4 Taxes on Goods and Services 50.6 62.0 78.2 46.5 57.4 75.2 98.0 Taxes on International Trade 48.1 54.9 74.4 47.0 52.4 69.6 86.3 2.4 9.0 8.2 2.1 7.0 7.9 9.7 27.6 34.8 36.0 24.1 34.3 34.2 47.8 (3.9) (5.2) of which: Taxes on Income and Profits Other Taxes NON TAX REVENUE 2/ Employers' Levy^- (-) (6.0) (4.1) (-) (4.1) Special Receipt:s-7 (5.9) (9.2) (9.2) (4.5) (9.2) 2/ Loans and Advances— (1.0) (1.9) (2.2) (0.9) (1.4) TOTAL REVENUE. 246.2 1/ Fiscal Year - April-March. 306.5 354.3 227.2 2/ Memorandum Item. Source: Economic and Financial Statistics, February 1981, Central Bank of Barbados, and data supplied CEPAL. 286.0 (10.4) (15.8) (1.9) 340.2 (2.8) 420.9 BARBADOS TABLE XV CENTRAL GOVERNMENT - CURRENT EXPENDITURE (BDS$ Mill.) 1/ 1976/77- 1977/78—/ 1978/79-/ 1979/80^ 1977 1978 1979 1980 General public services 35.1 38.5 42.9 50.7 37.5 41.3 49.5 58.2 Education 51.2 57.2 61.1 77.7 55.3 60.1 71.9 93.3 Health 37.3 40.6 46.2 50.1 38.7 44.0 49.8 58.0 Social security and welfare 27.0 33.4 35.3 39.0 31.8 34.2 38.2 43.6 Economic services 38.9 40.5 41.8 48.4 39.2 31.3 45.0 67.2 Charges of debt 14.2r 18.4r 22.7 28.4 16.0 21.0 28.2 28.5 8.6 11.6 14.1 20.3 10.8 23.7 20.0 22.8 240.2 264.1 314.6 229.3 255.6 302.6 371.6 Other TOTAL 212.3 \J Fiscal year - April-March. Source: Economic and Financial Statistics, February 1981, Central Bank of Barbados, and CEPAL estimate. - 36 BARBADOS TABLE XVI VOLUME AND VALUE OF CRUDE OIL AND REFORMATE IMPORTED INTO BARBADOS - 1979-1980 1979 Volume (Barrels) Value ($ U.S.) Value ($ BPS) Crude oil 721,626 15,940,722 31,881,444 Reformate 207,118 7,743,994 15,487,988 928,744 $23,684,716 $47,369,432 Value ($ U.S.) Value ($ BPS) Total 1980P Volume (Barrels) Crude oil 736,890 22,112,863 44,225,726 Reformate 232,087 9,208,936 18,417,872 968,977 $31,321,799 $62,643,598 Total Percentage increases over 1979-1980 period Volume Value Crude oil 2.12% 38.72% Reformate 12.06% 18.92% 4.33% 32.24% Total Source : Ministry of Trade, Energy Pivision. - 37 BARBADOS TABLE XVII VALUE OF IMPORTS-OF SELECTED HYDROCARBONS ($ Mill.) Classification No. SITC Rev.2 Commodity Crude Petroleum 1976 1977 1978 1979 Jan-Nov 1980 331.01 21.4 26.6 24.8 42.4 32.4 Natural Gas Liquids _ _ _ _ _ Natural Gas _ _ _ _ _ Aviation Gasolene 332.11 Motor Gasolene 332.13 Kerosene 332.22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jet Fuel 332.21 15.8 18.2 17.8 33.0 58.1 Diesel Oil 332.32 4.7 7.2 6.3 9.9 12.2 5.4 6.6 6.9 10.9 15.7 Other Fuel Oil 0.2 0.4 _ 0.6 _ 0.3 _ _ 1.3 _ Liquified Petroleum Gas 341.11 3.4 3.5 4.0 5.2 7.2 Other Gases 341.19 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 Source : Statistics of Monthly Overseas Trade, Barbados, Statistical Service, February 1978, and data supplied CEPAL. PART VII GRENADA COUNTRY NOTES I < < i < < < ( ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 GRENADA . (East Caribbean dollars used throughout)— Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 1979 increased by 15.3 percent at market prices. The recently initiated retail price index showed 2/ that prices increased by 12.3 percent in 1979.— The major areas of growth were Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries at 22.6 percent and the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector at 27 percent. Construc- tion also showed an increase of 12.9 percent and Manufacturing, of 10.2 percent« For 1980, GDP is estimated to have grown by approximately 10 percent at market prices but is estimated to have declined in real terms as prices increased by an average of 20.6 percent. Agriculture, Manufacturing and Tourism have all shown declines, whereas only the Government sector was estimated to have registered an increase. All other economic activities are estimated to have shown little change from 1979, so that the overall picture for 1980 was one of decline. In the External sector, in 19 79 gains were made in export agriculture and to a lesser extent in some industrial products, thus showing an increase in domestic export earnings of approximately 24 percent. At the same time imports increased by 22.9 percent. In 1980 export earnings declined by 19.2 percent mainly because of reduced output in agriculture, and imports increased by 15.5 percent. The excess of the deficit on visible trade over domestic exports had been declining steadily from 25 percent in 1977 to 13 percent in 1978 to 5.7 percent in 1979. For 1980, however, the trend was reversed and the deficit now stands at 102 percent of domestic exports. 1/ US$1.00 = EC$2.65. 2/ Average of twelve months. Progress made towards improving the balance of payments in past years was therefore negated in .1980. Government activity increased significantly in 1979 with current income increasing by 89 percent and capital expenditure by 964 percent. Current expenditure was maintained at a modest 10.4 percent. As a result of the massive increase in capital expenditure, however, the overall budget deficit increased by 262.5 percent in 1979. For 1980, current income increased by 3.9 percent, and current expenditure by 12.8 percent. Capital expenditure declined from the previous year by 22 percent as did total expenditure, by 1.2 percent. As a result the budget deficit was reduced by 61.5 percent, although it still stood at a high level and would have serious implications for the balance of foreign payments in the fucure, particularly as domestic output fell in 1980. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing The islands of Grenada and Cariacou are estimated to have 84,000 acres of land with less than 30 percent defined as arable. Medium ana large scale farms defined as those having over 5 acres, account for 4.9 percent of total farm population, while farms of less than 5 acres comprise 95.1 percent of that population. Medium and large farms together produce mainly for the export market, accounting for 81.5 percent of banana production and 45 percent of nutmeg output. Small farms produce 55 percent of nutmeg output, and 18„5 percent of the banana crop. They are also producers of 85 percent of the root and vegetable crop, a portion of which enters the export market through the inter-island huckster trade, and a portion of which enters the domestic marketing system. It is estimated that 30 percent of such production does not enter the formal market. The relative importance of the Agricultural sector has increased since 1972, when it contributed 20=5 percent of GDP to 1979 when it accounted for 32 percent. It provided employment for 25 percent of the formally employed Grenadian population in 1980. The Agricultural sector contributed in excess of 87 percent of earnings of total domestic exports in 1980, For 1979 the production of m a m export crops showed increases over 1978= The production of sugar cane and domestic crops all showed declines from the 1978 performance. Nutmegs, cocoa beans and banana showed increases of 35 percent, 15 percent and 21 percent respectively. The major decreases were in vegetables where cabbages, tomatoes and carrots registered declines of 31 percent, 23 percent and 19 percent respectively. The root crops also showed small declines For 1980 all agricultural crops have shown significant decreases,, The smallest decreases were registered by traditional export crops with declines of 12 percent on average. Domestic crops have shown dramatic decreases ranging from 40 percent to 90 percent. The low output levels have been attributed to adverse weather conditions, flood rains in the last half of the year, and the destructive effect of hurricane "Allen" in August 1980. Further investigation indicates that planting of vegetables was reduced in 1980 because of reduced demand by hotels. The accuracy of che figures relating to domestic crops is also open to some question, although the method of collection has not changed since 1979. Present conclusions regarding the fact of substantial decline in agricultural output are confirmed in other areas such as export figures, f o r e i g n earnings and a significant reduction in investment in 1979; but an accurate analysis of the precise magnitude of the decrease will have to await the availability of fuller data. Suffice i t to say that recorded agricultural output for 1980 declined in all crops. The number of acres under forestry production in 1980 was approximately 3,966 hectares comprising natural forest and cultivated forest. Approximately 30,000 forestry seedlings were produced in nurseries in 1980 A Forestry Development Corporation has been established to co-ordinate the development of forests and market its products o 3/ See Table II in Statistical Appendix» The Government of Grenada currently operates thirty estates. Six of these farms have recently been consolidated to be run as a commercially viable enterprise. They consist mainly of tree and vegetable crops and are to provide a steady supply of raw materials for the Government's Agroindustrial complex. The other twenty-four farms will at a later stage be assimilated and operated on a similar footing. Recent land use surveys indicate that the land under production has declined from 24,371 hectares in 1961 to 18,847 hectares in 1975. Estimates are that further reduction has taken place since then. In an attempt to increase the land under production, a series of initiatives has been identified for action as follows: i) ii) iii) an inventory of land capability is to be made; infrastructure such as water, electricity and road development has to be provided in agricultural areas; and measures to reverse the trend away from agricultural employment, such as improved agricultural training and increased incomes for rural populations are to be given priority. It is hoped that the provision of infrastructure in rural areas will of itself make agriculture more attractive to workers, but the National Agricultural Co-operative Development Agency (NACDA) has also been established to assist in the creation of agricultural, fishing and other types of co-operatives. The rationale for co-operative development is to make maximum use of idle lands and idle manpower. Fish production in 1980 was approximately 3.6 million kilos, a decline from 4.0 million kilos in 1979. A fisheries training school has been established to improve fishing techniques and a project negotiated with the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in 1980 is designed to boost the production of artisanal fishermen. A national fishing corporation has been established to co-ordinate the overall production and marketing of fish. Manufacturing Sector The Manufacturing sector in Grenada is relatively small and at an early stage of its development. The main activities are the production of sugar, flour and animal feed; meal and soap from copra; edible oil, coconut fruit and vegetable processing, beer, rum, cigarettes, furniture and garments. Manufacturing contributed approximately 2.7 percent of GDP in 1979 and is not expected to change significantly in 1980. The sector provided employment for 10 percent of the labour force in 1980, an increase from 8 percent in 1970. The enterprises are predominantly small scale, since 75 percent of them employ ten workers or less and 50 percent employ five workers or less. Industrial production is based on a small range of products and a small number of enterprises, with twenty-five firms accounting for 80 percent by value of total industrial production in 1980. In 1979, Manufacturing showed increases in all areas except sugar and the garment industry, with decreases of 11.5 percent and 4.9 percent respectively. The main growth areas in 1980 were the furniture industry and clothing. All other sectors which were dependent upon local agricultural inputs declined, no doubt as a result of reduced agricultural production. A case in point is the processing of copra where output of edible oil declined by 27 percent, coconut meal declined by 17 percent and laundry soap declined by 40 percent, because of lack of copra. Similar trends are evident where declining production of sugar cane has reduced sugar and rum production in 1980 by 5.7 percent and 3.5 percent 4/ respectively over 1979.— The two activities showing growth - furniture and garment production - are;doubly significant as they also show rapid growth rates in export earnings of 122 percent and 123 percent respectively. 4/ See Tablé Ill in Statistical Appendix. 4 - 6- 4 They are also labour intensive and are activities warranting further expansion. Growth in the Industrial sector has been constrained by a number 4 of factors including clear and consistent government policies, market size, skills and a conducive investment climate. In the past two years : some of these constraints have been addressed. The Peoples' Revolutionary Government has clarified its policy in ^ an attempt to remove uncertainty and improve the investment climate. It has indicated that it is in favour of a mixed economy and is prepared to participate in joint ventures with local and foreign private investors. Foreign investment projects are judged in accordance with ^ their capacity to transfer foreign capital rather than to bid away domestic capital from local entrepreneurs; technology; to transfer appropriate to improve the skills and responsibilities of Grenadians; to reduce the cost of the output to local consumers; to provide access to new markets. Sectors and projects are favoured that substitute for imports through the use of indigenous, natural and human resources. Accordingly, ^ priority is given to Agro-industry, Forestry and forestry products, fish processing, local handicraft, and other light industries. priority is now given to fruit and vegetable processing. The highest A factory within the Agro-industry Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, ^ Forestry, Fisheries and Tourism has been engaged since 1979 in processing nectars, fruit syrups, jams and jellies, condiments and sauces and vegetable soup. Further processing of other crops such as limes, coffee, coconuts and sugar cane is proposed, and nutmegs and cocoa will at a later 4 stage be processed. The opening of forests and the processing of forestry products is expected to reduce timber import requirements from the present 85 percent to 50 percent and increase the local component of the export furniture * industry, which Government proposes to encourage through export credits and some duty-free raw material inputs. ( » - 7 I The impetus towards diversification is also evident in other subsectors. Fish processing activities have already begun with the canning of small local fish; and the salting, dehydration and smoking of fish is proposed for the expanding fishing industry. | Similarly, handicraft pro- duced in cottage industry type operations is being encouraged for sale to tourists. While policies to expand those import substitution industries linked to established agricultural production are logical, there is still need ^ to diversify the manufacturing base to incorporate those activities which are important earners of foreign exchange and which provide a hedge against poor years of agricultural output, as was the case in 1980. > Tourism In 1979 the Caribbean accounted for 3 percent of world tourism. In that year Grenada accounted for 0.4 percent of the Caribbean total. During the decade of the 1970's, while the Caribbean as a whole showed ) an upward trend in tourist arrivals from 4.26 million in 1970 to 8 million in 1979, Grenada fluctuated between growth and decline. Stopover visitors amounted to 30,436 in 1970, 37,933 in 1972, 1^,723 in 1974 and 29,418 in 1980. ^ Statistics related to cruise ship visitors during this period also showed a large fluctuation from 41,261 in 1970 to 132,297 in 1973; a significant decline in 1974 to 57,644 and a gradual upward trend to a peak year in 1980 of 145,594. ^ But while the total number of arrivals has shown a steady increase from 19 74, 1980 shows an 8.8 percent decrease from the 1979 total stopover visitors of 32,252. For 1979, gross tourist expenditures were estimated at $53.5 million. Expenditures for 1980, however, declined by 2.2 percent to $52.4 million. Despite the fact that retained earnings are significantiy reduced by the high import content of the industry, the contribution of tourism to the Grenadian economy is significant. ^ Moreover, the Grenada Tourism Depart- ment estimates that approximately 10 percent of the employed labour force is employed directly or indirectly by the industry. < Grenada's traditional tourist markets have been in USA, Canada, Europe, and the Caribbean which together account for over 98 percent of stopover visitors. Recently, however, continental Europe shows the most rapid growth area, particularly the Federal Republic of Germany which recorded a 39.6 percent increase between 19 77 and 1980 ;while the United States and Canada recorded a decline in stopovers of 19 percent over this period. While small in overall terms, Grenada has a high rate of repeat business, surveys indicating that 30 percent of summer respondents had visited the island before, 11 percent of which had visited the country four or more times. The figures for winter respondents were 31 percent and 15 percent respectively. still underutilized hotel capacity. At the same time there is The industry had an occupancy rate of 32 percent in 1978, but indications are that this has declined slightly since then. One can conclude that those visiting Grenada are reasonably satisfied with the tourist facilities they find, but there is clearly the need for a greater promotional effort and the removal of other constraints to procuring a larger quantity of stopover visitors. The available evidence seems to indicate that independent tourists still form the bulk of the travellers to that island, in the face of the trend elsewhere for Charter operations to predominate. While the independent traveller is often influenced by the reactions of other visitors, or previous visits in the case of Grenada's high repeat traffic, and is therefore less susceptible to the adverse press publicity arising from subjective judgments, it is clear that if the number of stopover visitors is to grow quickly, means will have to be found to catch the eye of the casual tourist and direct him to Grenada. This implies special efforts with travel writers and large travel agencies. While this will entail a greater volatility in the market the effort is worth the risk since the industry is at this stage building on a solid base and must attempt to increase the levels of occupancy rather than to expand capacity of the industry. The Grenada Tourist Authorities have already moved to meet some < of these concerns as follows: i) ii) the re-organization of the tourist sector with Cabinet representation in 1979; introduction of a planned marketing programme: - the appointment of a North American Public Relations Agency to publicize the tourist potential; diversification of marketing efforts away from North America, to the high growth area in Europe; iii) the construction of an international airport closer to the main tourist areas which will be able to accommodate wide-bodxed aircraft and night arrivals; iv) the provision of improved intransit facilities in Barbados for travellers to Grenada. At the same time, policies have b££Tl iii d down to upgrade the quality of tourism, to improve the transpor;ation tacilities for tourists, and to upgrade the skills oi ps.:ions operating in the sector, Finally, Government has decided to integrate -ou.rism into the overall planning system in order to ensure higher -etained earnings and a balanced process of growth tci the sector. External Trade Developments During 1979 and 1980, the deficit on visible trade account increased by 19.9 percent and 50 percent respectively. While the value of domestic exports increased by 24 percent between 1978 and 1979, it decreased by 19.2 percent between 1979 and 1980, At the same time the import bill decreased by 22.8 percent between 1978 and 19 79, and by a further 15.5 percent between 1979 and 1980. The reduction in export earnings in 1980 was due to the poor performance of the major agricultural export commodities particularly cocoa and nutmegs, the earnings or which declined by 33.7 percent and 31 percent respectively from those of 1979. Whereas earnings from the main traditional export crops as a group grew by - 10 - 26»3 percent in 1979 they contracted by 25.7 percent in 1980. At the same time, however, some non-traditional exports showed good performance although their impact on export earnings as a whole is still small. Cinnamon showed a 100 percent increase in 1980 over 1979, and although this followed years of decline, its overall contribution to total domestic export earnings has increased from 0.1 percent to 0-16 percent, between 1974 and 1980. Clothing showed a 123 percent increase in 1980 and has been a consistently good performer with the exception of 1979, when it declined by 2.0 percent. Long term performance is, however, consistent, with this product moving from 2.3 percent of domestic exports in 1974 to 5.0 percent in 1980. Policy measures such as preferential access to raw materials are now in force for this sector because of its growth potential as well as the positive social impact of such growth. Furniture exports have shown steady growth with the exception of 1979 when the factory was offstream for some months. In 1980 it shewed growth of 122 percent over 1979, but more meaningfully, a 13.4 percent growth over 1978. It has moved from- 1.6 percent to 1„8 percent of the value of total domestic imports between 1974 and 1980. Long term trends show a steady decrease in the importance of the traditional export products from 91 percent of total domestic exports in 1974 to 87 percent in 1980. Non-traditionals moved in this time period from 5.3 percent to 7.5 percent. Unfortunately, this shift is taking place with an overall decline in the output of the traditional export crops. If the performance of traditional exports had sustained the same rate of growth in 1980 as in 1979, the deficit on visible trade would have grown by 6.5 percent instead of the figure of 52 percent actually registered. The major destination for exports was the EEC, accounting for 84 percent of exports in 1979 and 75 percent in 1980« was the major destination within the EEC; The United Kingdom CARICOM was the second most important area for exports, and while the magnitudes were relatively small, growth has been steady, showing a 41 percent increase over 1978 - 11 and a 29 percent increase in 1980. On the import side, total imports in 1979 increased by 22.8 percent over 1978 and by 15.5 percent in 1980 over 1979. The increase in the deficit on visible trade in 1979 was due to increased imports while in 1980 it was due mainly to decreased output of traditional export products since unit prices, with the exception of cocoa which increased, remained relatively stable. Among imports in 1979 the greatest increases were in capital goods, of 130.8 percent, 80 percent of which was for airport development. Consumer goods increased by 34 percent and intermediate goods declined by 25 percent, most significantly in fertilisers. For 1980, intermediate goods increased by 23.6 percent, consumer goods by 19 percent and capital goods declined by 4.7 percent from the huge increase of the year before. Once again, a significant proportion of capital goods imported, over 30 percent, was related to be the new airport construction. The deficit on visible trade was financed by a fa/ouri.ble balance on the service account, net transfers from gova.r.mants and international agencies, and dealings with IMF and ECCA. In this respect, transfers in the form of grants increased by 1513 percent in 1979 and remained at a high level in 1980, though decreasing by 6.5 percent from 1979. External debt increased by 30.3 percent in 19 79 over 1978 and by 15.5 percent in 1980. Transport There are approximately 600 miles of primary, secondary and tertiary roads in Grenada. The road system has suffered from long- term neglect, added to which, unusually heavy rains in the latter part of 1980 did further damage. It presents a serious constraint to production, particularly agriculture, where it is estimated that produce to the market might increase by 40 per cent if farmers had reasonably priced, efficient and available transportation. At the same time, it significantly increases the depreciation of existing motor vehicles. - 12 Examination of the Grenada Government Project list for 1980-1984 shows an acute awareness of the need to upgrade the road system and to train operatives in skills to ensure continued road maintenance, and six projects valued at US$14.75 million are proposed to that end. The existing airport, Pearls, is located on the eastern side of the island and is approximately one hour by car from the capital. It is incapable of accepting jet aircraft or of handling night flights. The country is dependent on the feeder service LIAT to transport its tourists. Efforts have been made to upgrade the LIAT service to Grenada and to improve the speed of handling intransit international tourist traffic mainly in Barbados. Negotiations are also currently underway with other airlines in the region to fly to Grenada. A new jet airport is currently under construction at Point Saline in the south west of the island which is near to St. George's, the capital and main tourist activity. The first phase is expected to be finished at the end of 1981, with completion scheduled for 1983. It is expected that the new airport will increase tourist arrivals significantly since the main growth area in international tourism is the charter business based on fuel-efficient jet aircraft, presently precluded from entering Grenada. It is also hoped that rapid and efficient freight handling will open new export possibilities. Port handling facilities are deemed to be inadequate particularly in the light of increased cruise ship arrivals and increasing use of containers. Proposals exist to upgrade the St. George's Port by the addition of a two-acre container handling yard, provision of one additional acre for two-schooner births, construction of a roll-on/rolloff ramp and a cruise ship birth. The jetty in Carriacou also needs upgrading with the improvement of landing facilities and the provision of storage areas. Developments in Employment and Unemployment Total population of Grenada is estimated to be 110,740 at the end - 13 of 1980. Approximately 47 percent of the population is estimated to be below fifteen years old. Total employment for 1980 is estimated to be 30¡,520 persons. No data exist on unemployment but a significant proportion of the eligible population is not formally employed, or is underemployed. This is particularly true of the Agricultural sector which is estimated to employ approximately 25 percent of the employed population, and is exceeded only by the Service sector at 30 percent as the largest employer of labour. Following these activities are Trade and Commerce, employing 11 percent and Industry 7 percent. Given the significant increase in capital expenditure of 964 percent in 1979 over 1978, particularly in the construction of the new airport at Point Saline, employment would be expected to increase significantly. This would be particularly true as the performance of the agricultural sector was good, showing increases in the main export products. For 1980, however, this performance was not sustained in Agriculture, and its effect upon the industrial processes dependent upon agricultural products would also manifest itself in lower levels of employment. For the two year period, employment rates in tourism activities would have remained relatively stable andaiot have changed significantly from 1978. While construction and tourism remained stable, therefore, agriculture and industry declined so that the levels of employment in these key areas would have declined. It is fair, therefore, to conclude that the level of national unemployment increased in 1980 over 1979. One method being used to ameliorate the problem of unemployment is support for co-operatives among young people. This initiative, however, is not yet mature enough to have had significant impact upon employment. It would seem that to obtain significant improvement in the employment situation, it will need to be generated first in the Agricultural sector, through the training and upgrading of skills and < - 14 productivity of agricultural workers» i Monetary Developments For 1979, total money supply increased by 18.4 percent over 1978, comprising of growths of 31 percent in money and 15 percent in quasi-money. ^ Third quarter figures for 1980 show once again an increase of total money supply, but the rate of expansion falling to 7.6 percent comprising growths of 4.2 percent in money and 8.7 percent in quasi-money. Currency outside banks showed a reduction of 20 percent at the end of third quarter of 1980, ^ as compared with the end of third quarter of 1979. Although there continues to be an expansion of bank credit, the sectoral distribution shows some adverse developments particularly as it relates to the Agricultural sector.—^ Credit to that sector contracted in 1979 from 1978 by 62.4 percent. i It showed further contraction at the third quarter of 1980, at a time when increased investment in the sector is necessary. Industry, however, received increased credit in 1979 and 1980 by 240 percent and 123 percent respectively. Public utilities and building ^ construction showed contraction in 1979 but increased in 1980, as a result of the opening of two housing schemes and a project to provide finance for rural housing repairs. in both years. Credits to the Tourism sector also showed increases It is worth noting that bank crediting to merchandising (i.e. * distributive trades and personal loans) has expanded by nearly 50 percent since 1977, while there has been a contraction in agriculture and manufacturing taken together, over the same period. < Fiscal Developments Government services accounted for 22 percent of GDP in 1979„ It grew by 6 percent between 1978 and 1979, and is expected to show further growths in 1980. This sector accounted for 10.4 percent of GDP in 1972. < Tax revenues showed increases of 19 percent in 1979 and were expected to increase further by 11 percent for 1980. Major increases were of income tax, 20 percent in 1979 and 45„6 percent in 1980 due to new methods of tax 5/ See Table X of Statistical Appendix. < - 15 collections, though rates remained the same. In 1980, import duties and export duties show decreases of 16 percent and 40 percent respectively, due to the reduced economic activity and the decline in agricultural exports. Current expenditure showed modest increases of 10.4 percent and 12.8 percent for 1979 and 1980. Of this, increases in wages and salaries were 0.3 percent and 4.4 percent for 1979 and 1980 respectively. Capital expenditure was budgeted to increase by a massive 964 percent in 1979 and to decline slightly by 21 percent in 1980. There has traditionally been difficulty in absorbing much smaller expenditures and it is unlikely that these levels of budgeted expenditure were met in 1979 or 1980. If aid funds are excluded, there was a deficit on current account of $525,000 in 1979 and of $2.64 million in 1980. Prices and Wages A detailed retail price index was compiled for Grenada with January 1979 as the base period. Food which is given weight of 59 percent showed an increase of 13.5 percent for 1979 and 17.6 percent for 1980. The All Items index showed increases of 12.3 percent for 1979 and 20.5 percent for 1980. In view ot th=> wsil known problems of petroleum importing countries, it is not surprising that the components fuel and light, and transport had increases of 43.6 percent and 37 percent over 1979 respectively. Other areas of above average increase were clothing and footwear, and household supplies, both of which have large import components. Conversely, furniture and appliances and housing, showed below average price increases. Comprehensive wage statistics are difficult to obtain. A brief examination of wage contracts, signed for 1979 indicates an increase of, on average, 21 percent, 13 percent and 8 percent for the usual three year contract. For 1980, increases were on average lower, reflecting a realization on both sides of the bargaining table that economic performance was not comparable to 1979. Agreements averaged 16 percent, 12.5 percent and 8 percent for the three year period. For 1980, therefore, wage increases were restrained below the rate of inflation. 4 0 4 4 i i i < I I GRENADA TABLE I GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT FACTOR COST - 1976-1979 In Current Factor Cost EC$ million 1976 1978 1977 1979 Percentage breakdown 1972 1979 33.8 36.7 40.6 49.8 20.5 31.9 Mining and Quarrying 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 Manufacturing 2.6 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.1 2.7 19.2 25.8 10.2 Construction 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.5 9.3 2.2 20.0 3.3 12.8 Sub-total 39.0 42.9 47.7 57.6 34.1 36.9 10.0 11.2 20.7 Electricity and water supply 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.3 1.8 5.0 14.3 16.7 Transportation and communication 5.4 8.1 8.9 9.9 9.0 6.3 50.0 9.9 11.2 7.4 10.2 11.3 12.7 10.3 8.1 37.8 10.8 12.4 11,2 16.3 18.5 23,5 1/ 15.0 45.5 13.5 27.0 2.6 3.7 4,4 4.5 1/ 2.9 42.3 18.9 2.3 Government services 21.3 20.5 32,7 34.6 10.4 22.1 -3.7 59.5 5.8 Miscellaneous services 15.3 17.3 20» 9 22.9 13.1 14.6 13.1 20 o 8 9.6 50-4 57.8 Zkil 85.5 1/ 54.7 14.6 32.3 11.8 96,8 110.9 1/ 100.0 14,6 22.2 15.3 Agriculture Sub-total Wholesale and retail trade Hotels and restaurants Sub-total TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT U 135 = 5 156 c 3 Figures not available for 1972 Source: Ministry of Finance s Mini3 t r y Of Planning 5 Grenada 0 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1977 1979 9.1 10.6 0 12.9 0 GRENADA TABLE II INDICATORS. OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. Annual Growth Rate Unit 1978 1979 1980 2,488 -15 .0 35.1 -11.7 293 -18 =2 23.9 -12.8 17.9 14.9 -23.2 2.7 21.3 -12.9 9,773 -4.4 -14.5 -27.3 506 34 -3.0 2.0 -93.3 371 23 -3.5 -5.1 -93.8 280 271 15 2.6 -3.2 -94.5 173 166 164 36 4.0 -1.2 -78.1 181 164 1977 1978 1979 1980 2,455 2,087 2,819 331 271 336 2,046 2,413 2,774 2,131 15,240 15,656 18,991 16,536 16,452 15,726 13,452 511 496 405 391 273 Production of main export crops Nutmegs Mace Cocoa beans Bananas Tonnes M M M Production of domestic crops M Sugar cane Root crops Yams Sweet potatoes Tannias Dasheen and Eddoes Cassava '000 H kg M M H -9.4 - - Vegetables Carrots Tomatoes Cabbages H -19.0 -76.5 -23o 6 -42.9 1.8 -31.6 -40.0 7.9 4.1 -97.4 -0.7 4.9 44 34 8 -4.5 55 42 24 -27.7 56 57 39 23 89.1 II 42 76 M 961 1,000 25 s 4 5 4 1,445 1 5 51/ -• 2,009 2,109 53 29.2 4.9 -9.7.6 12.1 -2.2 -91.5 25.4 -0.3 -87.8 Fruits Oranges Mangoes Grapefruits Limes Avocado Source: II II II II II 1 1,555 445 499 488 42 989 1,240 1,236 151 Statistical.Unit, Ministry of Agriculture Statistical Office, Grenada, . - GRENADA TABLE III INDICATORS OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION Unit 1977 1978 1979 Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 1979 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1/ 1978 1979 198CF-' Production of some important manufactures 494^ Sugar Tonnes 522 592 524 Rum '000 litres 398 337 359 282 272 Beer M 1,133 1,447 1,674 1,357 1,133 Malt M 272 187 485 411 429 Edible Oil m 244 290 308 278 106 153 296 259 25 26 27 25 743 1,012 991 '000 kg H Laundry Soap Clothing^ 4/ Furniture- EC$'000 H 393 716 1/ On partial data. 3/ Factory offstream, January-June, due to lack of raw materials. Source: The Statistical Office, Grenada, 365 - — 13.4 -11.5 -5.7 -15.3 6.5 -3.5 15.6 -16.5 -31.2 159.3 4.4 202 18.9 6.2 -27.3 215 44.3 93.5 -16.9 15^ 4.0 3.8 -40.0 2,213—^ 36.2 -2.1 123.3 / 82.2 -49.0 122.5 r-^ CM Coconut Meal - 812- 2j Production for 12 month periods January-December 1980. 4 / Data relate to exports, _ GRENADA TABLE IV SELECTED TOURIST STATISTICS Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 1980 28,536 32,336 32,252 29,418 13.3 -0.3 -8.8 108,465 116,331 138,654 145,594 7.3 19.2 5.0 184 188 200 236 2.2 6.4 18.0 14.4 18.7 19.7 18.0 29.9 5.3 -8.6 Number of yacht calls 1,609 2,079 926 1,863 29.2 -55.5 101.2 Number of hotel and guest house beds 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 0.0 0.0 0.0 . 21,565. . 39,438- ..53,594 52,416 82.9 35.9 -2.2 Stop-over visitors Cruise-ship visitors Number of cruise-ship calls Average length of stay of stop-over visitors (days) Estimated visitors' expenditure ($'000) 1/ Data supplied by Statistical Office,.Grenada. CTRC studies for 78/79 included average length of stay for summer visitors at 7.3 nights and for winter visitors at 9.4 nights. Source: Data supplied-by Statistical.Office, Grenada; Grenada Tourism Department. - 20 GRENADA TABLE V EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND.BALANCE ON VISIBLE TRADE: 1976--1980 (EC$'000) Year Domestic Exports Total Exports Imports Balance of Visible Trade 1976 32,121.0 34,121.0 66,215.0 -32,094 1977 37,031.6 38,451.6 84,763 -46,312 1978 44,388.0 45,663.0 95,770.0 -50,107 1979 55,167 57,631 117,692 -60,061 1980 44,552 45,814 135,893 -90,079 GRENADA TABLE VI AVERAGE EXPORT UNIT VALUES OF SELECTED PRODUCTS (EC$ Per lb.) Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 Commodity 1977 1978 1979 •1980 Bananas 0.28 0.29 0.33 .40 3.6 13.8 21.2 Nutmegs 2.42 2.46 2.44 2.54 1.7 -0.8 4.1 Mace 3.32 2.96 2.93 3.32 -10.8 -1.0 13.3 Cocoa 1.94 3.72 5.14 4.38 91.8 38.0 -14.7 Cloves 9.65 9.61 9.52 6.85^ -0.4 -0.9 1/ Figure of 6.85 includes cloves and stems. No figure is available for cloves alone. Source: The Statistical Office, Grenada. GRENADA TABLE VII EXPORTS OF GOODS (EC$'000) Breakdown 1 , 1974 1980^ Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 16,007 1,628 8,891 8,639 10,739 1,741 19,574 9,314 12,413 2,313 27,078 10,460 8,567 1,775 17,959 10,525 34.2 8.0. 30.7 18.6 19.2 4.0 40.3 23.6 -33.0 6.9 120.2 7.8 15.6 32.8 38.3 12.3 -31.0 -23.2 -33.7 0.6 35,165 41,368 52,264 38,826 91.4 87.1 17.6 26.3 -25.7 19 69 209 743 393 24 521 44 751 37 194 74 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 2,642.1 -36.2 44.1 -16.0 -74.2 100.0 1,012 716 30 991 365 40 2,213 812 39 2.3 1.6 0.1 5.0 1.8 0.1 36.2 82.2 25.0 1,457 2,323 2,184 3,332 5.3 7.5 59.4 -5.6. -52.6 Total Selected Domestic Exports 36,622 43,691 54,448 42,158 98.5 94.6 19.3 24.6 -22.6 Total Domestic Exports 37,032 44,388 56,016 44,552 100.0 100.0 19.9 26.2 -20.5 Total Exports 38,451 45,663. .58,479 .45,814 18.8 28.1 -21.6 1980 Main-traditional Exports Nutmegs Mace Cocoa Bananas Sub-total Other Exports 2/ ClovesCinnamon Nutmeg oil Clothing Furniture Sauces and condiments Sub-total - - - - - 1J Percentage breakdown in relation to Total Domestic Exports. Source: Statistical Office, Grenada, - - - -2.1 -49.0 33.0 2/ Includes cloves and stems. - 123.3 122.5 -2.5 » - 22 GRENADA 1 TABLE VIII TRADE BY MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS (EC$'000) 9 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Domestic Exports by Destination 12,782 » 18,752 21,463 19,055 1,408 1,146 950 1,838 1,603 U.S.A. 14,408 1,427 U.K. 1,457 477 886 CANADA LATIN AMERICA » EEC 14,437 17,485 24,764 14,619 1,007 1,236 2,442 3,428 4,421 77 72 2,393 CARICOM 14,371 2,205 55,167 44,553 ... (ECCM) » OTHERS TOTAL » 32,121 37,031. 1/ Domestic Imports by Origin— U.K. U.S.A. ... CANADA 1 ... LATIN AMERICA EEC » 44,388 O O P e o o CARICOM (ECCM) o e • o o o OTHERS » TOTAL 66,215 84,763 95,770 117,692 1/ Breakdown not available* Source; • The Statistical Office, Ministry of Planning, Grenada, 135,893 GRENADA TABLE IX MONETARY BALANCE (EC$'OOO) . BALANCE AT END OF ' DECEMBER ...-- 197,7. 1978 BALANCE AT END OF Sept Sept . 1979 1980 1979 v " • ••;! - Annual Growth Rate - / , ,1978 19-79. 19-80F I; . Money: Currency outside • Bank's-*' " •••••-i-* .'••<•®"^ r 'Demand deposits Total ' (M. ) rroir-liou Qua^ir.5if3ney : ' „ ¿.Time^d ep.o sits QCP'sX $:qg.£B Sayings deposits Total Quasi-money 3,207' 13,780v .4,045''' . 6,547'' ' 16 ,.525 3,903 2 4 ,.986 . 20 ,;484,. 4,928 27,257. r 26.1 * \ 61;18; -20.8' 20.0 ' c 24>0 ; 9.1 16,987; 20,570" 27,031 29,914 r , v o ? Jr j c' ! .. '" . ; 1 : ' V : 30,336 ,30 ¿538 i 34,672 28,519 31,160 41,348 53,108 57,580' 18.2 24. of 13.4 15.1 14.9 ' 18-4 . s 21.1 S •• M ;- v - ¡ A * 37,853 1T~ T 69,867 48,885 60,607 ' r-ri 79,221 91,145 87,780 99 ; 791 118,176Q.; 117,694 126v593 r 95,433 86 ¿054' Total' money supply „1/. On partial data... . Source: ...Ministry, of Finance.Trade and Industry, Grenada. ' 1 r. 31.4 -V? " y •i -, w ' f 6.4 ; 10.1c. ' • • : .4.2 ' 0 ' J, , i "* V ; 9.2 ; 8,4 -J,-?' 8,7 " 7.6 ho (O . GRENADA TABLE X COMMERCIAL BANKS' CREDIT—SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION (EC$'000) 1977 1978 1979 Sept 1979 Sept 1980 Agriculture 6,033 6,322 2,397 2,147 2,056 4.8 -62.4 -4.2 Manufacturing 1,897 1,134 3,866 2,921 6,537 -40.2 240.9 123.8 15,275 18,456 22,547 22,688 23,226 20.8 22.2 2.4 Tourism 4,400 4,454 4,919 4,762 5,872 1.2 10.4 23.3 Transportation 2,019 2,776 4,302 5,172 5,265 37.5 55.0 1.8 Public utilities (gas, electricity and telephone) 1,270 1,063 530 573 1,407 -16.3 -50.0 145.5 Building and Construction 4,898 4,130 3,274 3,422 4,950 -15.7 -20.7 44.6 Personal Loans 12,666 14,122 18,014 17,173 19,147 34.4 27.5 11.5 Other advances 9,486 12,753 11,601 10,347 13,345 34.4 -9.0 29.0 57,914 65,210 71,432 69,205 81,805 12.6 9.5 18.2 Distributive Trades TOTAL 1/ On partial data. Source: The Ministry of Finance, Trade and Industry, Grenada. Annual Growth Rate 1/ 1978 1979 1980 GRENADA TABLE XI CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND"- EXPENDITURE (EC$'000) Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 Tax Revenue of which: Income Tax Consumption Tax Import Duties Export Duties Other Taxes, Fees and Licences Aid Funds Current Expenditure Wages and salaries Other current expenditure Savings/deficit on current account Capital Expenditure Total Expenditure Gross National Debt Domestic Debt External Debt 1979 1980 33, ,600 Current Revenue 1978 47. ¡000 88, ,875 92 ,364 39, ,9 89. ,1 3. ,9 32. ,006 44. ,800 53; ,375 59 ,164 40. .0 ,1 19. ,8 10. ,075 6. ,227 2. 8. ,160 4, ,549 8. ,903 ,761 2. 9. ,931 ,745 5. 10;,720 ,655 2. ,816 10; 7; ,632 15 ,609 2 ,226 12 ,057 4 ,559 46, .5 24, ,0 21, .7 26, .3 20. ,4 ,8 -3. 8, .9 32. ,8 ,6 45. ,1 -16. 11, ,5 .3 -40, 10. ,945 ,594 1. ,460 17. 2, ,200 21, ,552 , 35, ,500^' 24 ,713 , 33 ,200i/ 59, ,5 38, .0 23. .4 .6 1513. .6 14, -6. ,5 32, ,218 48. ,800 53, ,900 61 ,800 51, .5 ,4 10. ,8 12, 16. ,100 ,118 16: ,700 31. ,100 17. 31. ,800 22, ,100 33 ,200 28 ,600 96, .9 6, .1 ,3 0. ,2 29, .4 4, .4 29. ,382 1. 3. ,630 ,848 35. 43. ,871 24. ,513 ,358 19. ,800 "I: ,900 - 3. 52. ,700 ,600 51. 30:,800 20 : ,800 34. ,975 41, ,500 95:,400 57, ,200 30: ,100 27:,100 29 ,886 32 ,400 94 ,200 58 ,300. 27 ,000 31 ,300 T) Grants made to the Government of Grenada, Source: Ministry of Finance, Trade and Industry, Grenada. -130, ,2 7, .4 47, 0 = 17, .6 25, ,6 7, ,4 » • 964. .1 81, ,0 .8 10, -2. ,3 .3 30, ,5 -14. -21. .9 .2 -1. 1, .9 ,2 -10, ,5 15, 26 GRENADA TABLE XII CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY 1979 = 100) Group % Weight Total - All Items Average annual % change 1980 % change Dec 1979 and Dec 1980 1979 1980 100-0 112.3 135.4 20.6 21.8 59.0 113.3 134.7 18.9 17.6 Alcohol and tobacco 2.5 104.1 125.5 20.5 28.8 Clothing and footwear 8.0 116.3 140.8 21.0 33.1 Fuel and light 6.0 124.5 178.8 43.6 31.8 Housing 6.5 101.5 111.4 9.7 10.4 Furniture and appliances 3.0 100.1 105.3 4.1 5.7 Household supplies 3.5 119.7 154.1 28.7 11.6 Transport 4.0 118.5 162.4 37.0 26.9 Miscellaneous 7.5 102.3 128.5 25.6 35.2 Food Source : The Statistical Office, Ministry of Planning, Grenada. i 4 4 4 4 4 i < i PART Vili GUYANA COUNTRY NOTES i i i < < i i i < ( ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 GUYANA j. (Guyana dollars used throughout)— Preliminary estimates for 1980 reveal an improvement in the general economic situation with an increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at current prices, of 2 percent in real terms or a nominal GDP increase of 17 percent above 1979. During the year a higher level of investment and an increased money supply reflected a rise in external activity, mainly in the Export sector. However, these increased export earnings were insufficient to offset other current account expenditure resulting in a further worsening of the balance of payments situation. The key productive sectors demonstrated a much improved and stable performance in 1980 despite lower outputs in su g^r and dried bauxite. This improvement was the result of an export led stimulation of the economy, higher prices for exports, availability of more investment capital for both the Public and Private sectors and the significant reduction in the number of man-hours lost due to industrial disputes. The real performance in the External sector thus deteriorated further with a "tentatively estimated" balance of payments deficit of $311 million. This position was mainly the result of a deficit in the merchandise trade account which rose by 57 percent in 1980 despite a 32 percent growth in the earnings of goods exported. increases in the volumes and values of exports. There were At the same time the total merchandise trade rose by about 33 percent with the level of imports representing 53 percent of the total trade. This is the result of the higher cost of fuel and lubricant imports and the sustained level of imports of capital goods. Overall, the current account continued to be in a deficit position estimated to be 51 percent higher in 1980. 1/ G$2.55 = US$1.00 as from October 1975, Emphasis continued to be placed on heavy Public sector expenditure, mainlv in Agriculture and Industry, thus creating a strain on the banking 6 , . AMASTJ3' system for private investyB^t^^p^iji^ag^g;.?®^ 3 !^/^ t h e level o f the money supply increasing by over 19 percent in 1980„ The renewed ; ..- . .; : "!Ti -v xbbv&T 0861. "ni 3 9 f " i c)' ." " .iii • activity: in the money market did not totally result in the rapid upward • i : • . . s a £ s i s a l n s r i ' J x w n o r l i i . ' . r i < • ' m o i i c , ; . movement in the level of domestic prices as measured by the Urban Consumer j .un-s: inaoisq S lo ,39r>.t:tq ':no->rt: 1- ^ ( <0. ; Price Index. The conservative estimates available point towards some j .a: •-,'C svods Jmsotsq tl to lai restraint in any rapid inflationary growth mainly through strict government ; baaBS'.tOiil r efans:niri. • *. \ i : r ii:i_ control on price Increases. It is anticipated that mark-up margins between .. . :'.< q/,1 3i. rciylnisnr , ^Jivilat. 11 ..o: s ..--; , f i:1 . : the period of acquisition and actual disposal of stock would ba monitored to curb excess profits thus ensuring that prices of essential commodities . •• . < < i;r t -« £ n r • r j r l B t sif-'ilbnaqxa i » ' - • . ,; "' • .. gi-iwSf n . , : / jt • remain as low as possible. However, the inflation rate for 1980 was of the . n'ox-lsu.lxa paiii-ur^s«, f jd. ' order of 14 percent. • v • . •. •. .-t .Ti ijsiJBiSsflomsb sioaosa svi"' i • t v •;: . > r •/q f Total Government Income was expected to rise by 14,5 percent but Total , • ; .. : . . c . „ .- ^ jqjLio is wo I siiqasb 0861 nx &onw>K~s>.. i\ „• Government Expenditures were expected to increase by 34 percent. ! ', .:, , .'). .. : o o 1 . io 3i.ij89l axis ebw 3 r i i v jqnr • r9isc .23.-. : i The mpjaey.. supply by 57 percent, , ; i ^ v ^ n c S f f g f ^ b y o P a ^ f f f D e f i c i t (SeeTabi§ Slavic bats ' ., • ..: s u b 3 a o l o x l d u l s r l j i-of . ftc a i u o r i - n s f l i i o xedmu.n 'sj J 1 1 * . J.1 t 1 Data presented in TaBle°lrl SA§^St8tlla€0tAitli^wa^ilnc'tiasediScohomic activity in 1980. -1There~>&td k£slgn?fi'iaflt ^Hcife^e i n £ !eWl7'of"Iii'ports which rose by ah estiiMte!8 fi&?k*k f>*l6ee was Estimated bnB to have grown; by about 16JpeScsn!? aws-ov ^ 1 » • • Jiisoisq 6£ Juocis y f 9301 absii sa* onsri ; t The increase in economic activity was reflected in the growth of 1 - : .. • ' ': . • ¡boi-f Xsio3 sr: 10 jnso'iaq cc. yi ; ' > ' c .fJ t ; • domestic demand by over 22 percent.f Both the Public and Private sector ; a . • . • <- . ' ' J r j £ . T ' brre Isul ' o -" jrTioo i " •''! : levels of fixed investment were expected to rise appreciably during the year. • ,!• : :• • •! I i £ i v .aboog tBiiqs' ' o • > - q . -J . . / 3 0 i • . h^ It was estimated that there would beta 24 percent growth during the period '! . i ' -r J r :» ••:• 03; E i i t . noijiaoq jxox'j.9b a , x ad .. f .• .'rae u : . under review. An anticipated 22 percent increase in tine level of consumption resulted from the continued rise in central government and Private sector consumption. In parallel with this increased level of investment, the level of exports also rose to reeoird ancant'ici^ted'rlh'&reas'^ in'-earnings- of more than 31 percent in 1980, However, these increased earnings were insufficient - 3 to offset the increased level of investment resulting in a deterioration of the Trade Balance and an increase in the level of external debt. GROWTH IN THE MAIN SECTORS Introduction Valued at factor cost, the GDP in 1980 was estimated to have increased to about 17 percent above the level achieved in 1979. However, the real output index rose by about 1.5 percent in 1980. The substantial growth in export earnings was the result of higher prices in export markets rather than increased volumes of exports. Sugar exports were expected to decline by 6 percent while bauxite exports were about the same as in 1974. to increase significantly. Only alumina was expected As a consequence of these developments, the sectors Agriculture and Mining and Quarrying contributed to GDP increases of 20 to 30 percent respectively above the 1979 levels. Present estimates indicate that there was also a continued favourable performance in the Service sectors with an increased GDP of over 11 percent in 1980. This performance was, achieved because of renewed activity in the Financial sector with a GDP growth of 15 percent and increased Public sector development. However, there was a general slowing down in the growth of the Distribution sector, whereas the Transport and Communication sector increased by about 13 percent, benefiting from the rise in construction activity. Despite these increases the contribution of the Sèrvices sector to GDP decreased marginally from 42 percent in 1979 to 40 percent in 1980. (See Table III). Agriculture In spite of the mixed performance in the Agriculture sector in 1980, earnings were provisionally estimated to have increased by about 19 percent. The importance of agriculture as measured by its contribution to GD^ rose very slightly in 1980, yet the sector remained the largest single contributor to the total GDP. Sugar cane and rice (paddy) sub-sectors continued to dominate, jointly accounting for about 62 percent:of the agriculture1 contribution to GDP, representing an increase of 23 percent to the agriculture GDP total. The contribution of sugar cane to total GDP was about 11 percent or 49 percent of agriculture GDP,, while the physical output of sugar cane harvested was estimated to have declined by more than 14 percent in 1980 - some 19 percent below the 1978 production. continue to plague the industry. This indicates that problems The main causes for this poor performance were the adverse weather coridi'tions during the planting and harvesting seasons, the presence of the rust and smut diseases, reduction in the acreage harvested, and the continued incidence of unplanned cane fires. These factors considerably aiffëcted the yieid, the estimated average ton cane to ton sugar ratio beinè 13 to 1. However, overall performance showed improvement due to increased earnings from the higher export prices for sugar. There was also a significant reduction in industrial disputes. (See Table IV). Earnings from rice (paddy) were estimated to have increased by about 28 percent in 1980 with output being about 22 percent higher than in 1979 after two years of reduced production. Despite the level of-output the - industry was plagued with problems which affected a higher physical output. Output might have been higher but for the shortage of tractors and other machines, lack of spare parts, the absence of adequate water control facilities, adverse weather conditions and other technical problems during the planting and harvesting stages. However, it is expected that the recent increase in the price of milled rice and paddy would keep the output of rice at a high level. As regards other agricultural sub-sectors, earnings were estimated to have increased by 13 percent to attain some 38 percent of total agriculture GDP. Earnings from non-traditional crops fell by 5 percent. Data for root and tree crops indicated increased production in 1980, mainly in coconuts. Pineapple production continued to~increase while corn production continued to decline. - 5 Earnings from fishing were estimated to have shown a 14 percent growth in 1980 mainly due to the 9 percent increase in the production of shrimp, although output of fish fell by over 18 percent in 1980. Both the shrimping and the artisanal fishing fleets were considerably reduced during the year, severely affecting the volumes landed. Main causes for the reduction were shortages of finance, lack of spare parts and inadequate supply of other fishing requisites. The cost of fuel rose by 153 percent over the 1978 level which further aggravated the situation. The estimated earnings from forestry rose by 8 percent due to newmarketing areas, and processing techniques, improved road transportation and other facilities. On the other hand, there was a considerable reduction in numbers of livestock resulting in lower production of pork, mutton and goat. Nevertheless, livestock earnings rose by 8 percent because of higher prices. The causes for the poor performance of the livestock sector are varied, but all livestock output was affected by shortages of animal feed. The short supply of hatching eggs affected poultry output, and pork production suffered unduly with the over-slaughtering of breeding stock in the previous year, while beef output was severely hampered by the lack of transport between the main breeding areas and the capital. The government continues to work towards a strategy of increased agricultural production. To this end, there have been some improvements in the irrigation and drainage facilities together with improvements in transportation. Mining and Quarrying Valued at current prices, Mining and Quarrying generated 19 percent of GDP in 1980, with earnings increasing by 33 percent. Preliminary data in Table V show that considerable improvement was made in the bauxite industry, mainly in the production of alumina. Overall the production went up by roughtly 8 percent in 1980, despite a decline in the production of dried bauxite and alumina hydrate. a 64 percent rise in the production of alumina. There was Extraction of cement - 6 grade bauxite continued to show rapid increases in output. Nevertheless, the sector continued to suffer from a number of technical problems which affected the quality of calcined bauxite and alumina produced in 1980. Estimates show that there continued to be a decline in the output of diamonds, although gold output remained steady albeit at a lower level than 1978. Manufacturing Manufacturing accounted for just over 12 percent cf GDP in 1980. This sector showed an estimated increase in earnings of 14 percent, about level with the inflation rate. This is an improvement over 1979. Earnings from the rice and sugar sub-sectors increased by 25 percent and 16 percent respectively and jointly contributed roughly 36 percent to manufacturing GDP. However, the output of manufactured sugar continued to fall and registered a decrease of 20 percent in the 1980 crop year. On the other hand, the physical output of milled rice rose 22 percent. Despite the mixed performances of the other manufacturing sub-sectors, total earnings rose 11 percent in 1980. Soap production increased 31 percent and margarine by 46. percent due to increased ^production of coconuts. Rum production increased by about 13 percent to take advantage of new shipping facilities and the in-roads made into newer markets. Significant decreases were recorded in the production of flour and stock-feeds, while the output of timber and paints reflected continued poor performance. Production of stoves, refrigerators and plywood increased as a result of more private investment during the year. Some spare parts and other components for industries were also produced locally during the year. Nevertheless, there continued to be problems of frequent power outages and a lack of sufficient foreign exchange for the purchase of much needed spares and other manufacturing inputs. These problems affected the total level of production in the Manufacturing sector. Construction There was a 14 percent growth in earnings in this sector during 1980. The main impetus of this activity continued to be concentrated in government capital development programmes and road building projects. It was estimated that over 100 community projects were completed during the year and that on-going work continued on the Mahaica-Mahaicony Abary project and the Tapakuma projects. Emphasis continued to be placed on expansion of housing construction activity with the development of pre-fabricated timber houses; however, other basic materials for housing were in short supply. Other Sectors The rise in the volume and value of imports, together with increases in the capital expenditure programme of government has generated the demand for basic services. The Services sector showed considerable improvement in 1980, accounting for 40 percent of total GDP. This represented a growth of over 11 percent in earnings from 1979 as a result of increases in the Financial and Transport sectors, although the Distribution sector increase was less than in 1979. The emphasis of government investment policy continued to be on the improvement of infrastructural development in the Agriculture and Industrial sectors with the programme geared towards self-sufficiency and efficient production practices. PRICES AND WAGES The level of domestic prices, as measured by the urban Consumer Price Index, rose some 14 percent from 1979. However, this growth was somewhat slower than the price movements in 1978 and 1979 when prices rose by 15 percent and 18 percent respectively. This improve- ment was attributable to the curtailment of the rapid upward trend of the Food and Clothing categories of the Index. In the last two years these two categories showed substantial growth resulting in large price movements of the All Items Index. Nevertheless, the inflation rate as shown in Table XII of the Appendix was pushed up by large increases in the normally slower rising Housing category and the continued price increase in the miscellaneous category. - 8 - In an effort to contain the level of prices the government has established a programme whereby the mark-up policy on about 4 $ 000 basic items can be monitored. So far indications are that this policy has had some measure of success in the curtailment of the rapid growth in prices evident over the last few years. This decision stemmed from a commitment "to defend the wages of the workers by ensuring that the mark-up on essential commodities bears a reasonable relationship to acquisition and selling costs". It is now expected that increases in retail prices would be justified only on the grounds of increased costs, thus allowing for reasonable prices to be charged for basic commodities. This measure should help to cut down the level of subsidies. However, despite these policy decisions on the control of prices, the rising cost of imported fuel weighed heavily on the level of domestic retail prices of petroleum products, even though Government continued to subsidise them. The cost per imperial gallon of domestic kerosene rose 64 percent in 1980 directly affected by the 53 percent growth in the imported value of the product. Although motor gasolene unit imports costs went up by almost 37 percent the internal prices rose by only 19 percent and 17 percent for regular and premium gasolene respectively, with retail prices of $5.11 and $5.34 per imperial gallon. At the same time internal prices of diesel oil rose 28 percent while fuel oil rose 58 percent, reflecting increases in the unit costs of the respective imports of 55 percent and 43 percent during 1980. It is not yet known what benefit will accrue from the Trinidad Oil Facility. (See Tables XV and XVII). As regards wages and salaries no full-year data were available for 1980, however, indications are that there were increases in the level of wages and salaries, especially in the Public sector. Further, in an effort to increase the national productivity level the government has advocated an incentive scheme to supplement the incomes of efficient workers. This scheme was apparently successful, though not fully applied throughout the economy, resulting in the considerable reduction of manhours lost through industrial disputes. There was a decrease in hours lost from 324,473 in 1979 to only 67,620 in 1980. » - 9 | EXTERNAL SECTOR Preliminary data indicate the continued deterioration in the Balance of Payments situation in 1980. The current account continued to deteriorate despite a rapid rise in the value of total ^ exports of 32 percent to $1,033 million in 1980. This deterioration was attributable to an estimated 57 percent drop in the Merchandise Trade account, mainly due to the 34 percent increase in the level of imports. ^ Net transfer payments improved considerably in 1980 indicating the extension of external lines of credit for certain imports. Consequently, indications are that the Balance of Payments deficit was tentatively estimated at $311 million in 1980 or 23 percent of GDP. ^ As a result foreign investments increased by $215 million. Merchandise Trade Provisional estimates for 1980 indicate a 33 percent increase in ) the total value of the merchandise trade, amounting to $2,067 million, with export earning accounting for over 47 percent of this total. Total value of traditional exports increased by 36 percent in 1980 with a slower growth of 4 percent in the main non-traditional exports. ^ There was considerable improvement in the external performance of the bauxite industry, with the total volume of bauxite and by-products exported increasing by about 5 percent and export earnings going up more than 47 percent in 1980. ^ The main contribution of this performance came from the greatly improved export situation of alumina and alumina hydrate with an increase in export volume of 49 percent: increased by over 100 percent in 1980. earnings Though the exported volume of dried and calcined bauxite rose insignificantly in the period under ^ review, the export values rose by over 36 percent in the same period. At the same time, export earnings of sugar recovered from 1979 shortfall earnings with a total export value in 1980 of $294 million, representing an increase of about 30 percent from 1979, despite a ^ further decline in the exported volume of the commodity. On the other hand, the volume of rice exported was much improved over last year resulting also in increased export earnings. Both export - 10 - volume and value of rice rose by about 8 percent. (See Tables VII and VIII). There was a small increase in the value of non-traditional exports mainly with the improved performances in rum and timber exports. The relative growth of export earnings of these two items in 1980 were 92 percent and 12 percent respectively. Added to this, there were marked decreases in the exports of shrimps and molasses. Indications are that the total imports of merchandise goods estimated at $1,084 million increased by 34 percent in 1980 and total goods and services imported increased by about 37 percent to $1,363 million. These increases took place in spite of the continued shortage of foreign currency and the government's monitoring of imports, reflecting the increase in the price of fuels and lubricants, the total payments of which rose from 31 percent of merchandise exports in 1979 to 37 percent in 1980. It was expected that the imports of fuels would be increased by about 57 percent with an estimated value of $360 million in 1980. At the same time, the growth in the value of other merchandise imports was estimated to have increased by 25 percent, mainly in intermediate and capital goods items. ~ MONETARY AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS — Monetary Developments The general increase in economic activity accounted for a 19 percent growth xn the total money supply estimated at $850 million in 1980. The expansionary effects of domestic credit contributed to the growth in the total money supply with the level of quasi-money (M^) moving up by 23 percent to $527 million and the level of the more narrowly defined (M^) increasing by 13 percent in 1980 to $167 million. This situation reflects the increase in the activities of the External sector despite the continuing contraction of the monetary's system net foreign assets. However, the deficit in net foreign assets more than doubled in 1980, being put at $396 million (some 117 percent higher than 1979), whereas the expansion of domestic credit continued in the same period and totalled about $1,464 million - an increase of about 35 percent Indications are that savings and time deposits continued to show increases - 11 mainly due to higher interest rates on savings and also increases in wages and salaries. Accordingly, savings grew by about 17 percent, with time deposits going up almost 31 percent in the period under review, jointly accounting for 62 percent of the total money supply. At the same time, the volume of currency outside the banks increased by 13 percent and demand deposits by 16 percent over 1979 levels. Demand deposits grew to $156 million in 1980. availability of more resources; investment; The increases in prices; and other internal developments were factors contributing to these increases. Similarly, domestic credit both to the Public and Private sectors increased in 1980 by 35 percent. This increase reflects a more liberal lending policy for continued developments in the Agricultural and Industrial sectors. Data presented in Table XIV indicate that the lines of credit extended to the Public sector amounted to $1,256 million and to the Private sector $199 million. Fiscal Developments Preliminary estimates show a substantial increase of 15 percent in current income for 1980, mainly attributable to the growth of 24 percent in the earnings from tax revenue. However, the simultaneous growth in the current expenditure of 24 percent resulted in an overall deficit of about $269 million on the current account. The considerable growth in current income earnings came about with rapid changes in the tax structure resulting in the relatively large returns from tax revenue. Whereas, in the past years the increases in tax revenue were marginal, 1980 saw a rapid increase in the size of the earnings. This came about mainly through sub- stantial increases in the amount of returns from direct and indirect taxes, having increases of 16 percent and 32 percent respectively. On the other hand, other revenue was expected to show a drastic 30 percent reduction in earnings - a turnaround from the previous years. The failure of certain corporations to pay taxes resulted on - 12 - a shortfall in revenue. This coupled with increased wages and salaries expenditure were the factors mainly responsible for the continued deficit on the current account. Additionally, estimates show that debt charges rose by about 18 percent. Capital expenditure was estimated to have increased by about 61 percent in 1980. This appreciable growth was possible because of the availability of more investment capital, both internal and external, for infrastructural development. More specifically it was necessary for government to increase Public sector expenditure in order to avoid the retrenchment of workers and to speed up the on-going developmental activities. As a result, total expenditure grew by about 34 percent to about $1,056 million in 1980 leaving a considerable deficit on the fiscal performance during 1980. Indications are that the fiscal deficit amounting to over $602 million was expected to be financed mainly from the banking system. The contribution from Public sector surplus, other internal borrowing and net capital inflow was expected to be $132 million with $117 million coming from the renegotiated Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. This amount was drawn down in two tranches in 1980 out of a possible $300 million available f o r a three-year— period. STATISTICAL APPENDIX GUYANA 1980 I i i i i ÀMAÏXÎO 08Ç1 i < i i GUYANA TABLE I MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1980p 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1,098 1,038 1,013 1,126 1,170 787 799 812 824 842 1,395 1,299 1,247 1,366 1,389 1,596 BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost (millions of Guyana dollars at current prices) Population (thousands) Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (Guyana dollars at current prices) 1,371 859® ANNUAL GROWTH RATES SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices 26.2 -5.5 -2.4 11.1 3.9 17.2 Per capita gross domestic product at current prices 24.1 -6.9 -4.0 9.5 1.7 14.9 Current value of exports of goods 41.1 -17.3 -6.1 13.4 -1.0 32.3 Current values of imports of goods 43.0 14.4 -13.2 -11.6 13.9 34.3 7.9 9.0 8.2 15.2 17.8 14.1 Consumer Price In^ex Annual Average Variation " g TABLE I (CONT'D) MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1975 Money (M^) 1976 1977 1978 60.6 7.4 28.9 5.7 1980P 1979 -4.4 r 48.6 Total expenditure of government 69.3 23.0 Fiscal deficit/total expenditure of government (percentage) 19.7 49.6 20.9 -11.9 r 9.5 r 9.3 13.7 r 14.5 8.1 43.5r 24.6 34.0 49.7 57.0 -55 r -209 -330e -72 r -21.6 CM Current income of government r -208 -315e MILLIONS OF DOLLARS EXTERNAL SECTOR Trade balance (goods and services) -335r -26 -242r Balance on Current Account -35.2r -350.8 -251.1 Variation in net international reserves -92.3 +226.9 +70.6 External debt 533 r 662 690 -49.2 r +131.7 739 804 « • • 898 GUYANA TABLE II TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND At Current Prices G$ Millions pe Annual Growth Rate 1979 pr 1980 pe 1.3 10.5 24.9 1,530 11.1 5.9 15.9 997 1,363 -10.3 17.3 36.7 2,096 2,317 2,893 1.3 10.5 24.9 1,294 1,245 1,454 1,780 -3.8 16.8 22.4 290 241 335 415 -16.9 39.0 23.9 (230) (194) (275) (345) (-15.6) (41.7) (25.4) (60) (47) (60) (70) (-21.7) (27.7) (16.7) 1977 TOTAL SUPPLY Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices Imports of Goods and Services TOTAL DEMAND Domestic Demand Gross Fixed Investment Public Private Total Consumption 1978 1979 2,069 2,096 2,317 2,893 1,121 1,246 1,320 948 850 2,069 1,004 1,004 r Central Government 300 Private 704r Exports of Goods and Services Net Factor Income Payments 708 67 1980 pe 1,119 1,365 335 355 435 669r 764 r 53 r 1978 798 11.4 22.0 11.7 6.0 22.5 930 -5.0 14.2 21.7 788 1,033 12.7 -1.2 31.1 75 80 -20.9 41.5 6.7 - Source:TheS t a t i s t i c a l B u r e a u , M i n i s t r y of Economic Development, Guyana. TABLE III GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY KIND OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT FACTOR COST Percentage G$ Million 1978 1979 1980 1970 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 264 ,259 308 19.3 22.5 25.1 -1.9 18.9 (127) (123) (150) (9.2) (10.9) (64.9) (-3.1) (21.9) (40) (32) (41) (2.8) (3.0) (-18.4)•<-20.0) (28.1) Mining and Quarrying 171 193 257 20.4 18.7 4.3 12.9 33.2 Manufacturing 141 148 168 12.2 12.2 14.6 5.0 13.5 Sugar manufacturing (45) (43) (50) (3.2) (3.6) (66.7) (-4.4) (16.3) Rice milling (10) (8) (10) (0.8) (0.7) (11.1). (-20.0) (25.0) Agriculture Sugar Cane Rice Construction 75 76 87 7.9 6.3 -2.6 1.3 14.5 651 676 820 59.8 59.8 13.2 3.8 21.3 Transport and Communication 60 62 70 5.9 5.1 3.4 3.3 12.9 Distribution 96 106 115 11.5 8.4 4.3 10.4 8.5 Rent, Financial and Other Services 89 • 92 106 9.6 7.7 3.5 3.3 15..2 Government 230 234 260 13.2 19.0 14.4 1.7 11.1 Sub-total Services 475 494 551 40.2 40.2 8.7 4.0 11.5 1,126 1,170 1,371 100.0 100.0 11.3 3.9 17.2 Sub-total Goods TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Source : Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development, Guyana. GUYANA TABLE IV INDICATORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (Tonnes) 1977 Unit Sugar Cane '000 tonnes 1978 1979P 3,301 4,042 3,821e 1980 pe 3,262e Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 22.5 -5.5 -14.6 -24.3 21.7 Rice (milled) it 213.4 185 138 168 -13.3 Root Crops H 24.5 28.2 28.2 29.0 15.1 - 22.8 Plantains H 19.5 21.3 21.3 22.0 9.2 - 3.3 25 25 26 29 - 4.0 11.5 15.4 15.4 10.3 10.7 - -33.1 3.9 5.0 6.5 6.5 6.8 30.0 3,268 2,086 1,670 1,419 -36.2 -19.9 -15.0 Coconuts Millions Citrus '000 tonnes H Bananas Corn Tonnes - 4.6 Tomatoes •I 2,495 2,856 2,716 2,812 14.5 -4.9 3.5 Pineapples it 1,905 1,632 1,797 1,860 -14.3 10.1 3.5 Beef M 3,130 1,860 1,770 1,633 -40.6 -4.8 -7.7 Pigs, sheep, goats M 2,359 1,724 1,815 1,417 -26.9 5.3 -21.9 Poultry it 7,393 10,387 10,571 10,433 40.5 1.8 -1.3 S o u r c e :TheS t a t i s t i c a l B u r e a u , M i n i s t r y of Economic Development, Guyana. GUYANA TABLE V INDICATORS OF MINING PRODUCTION (Tonnes) Unit Dried Bauxite '000 tonnes 1980P Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 1,017 1,174 1,020 1,002 15.4 -9.8 -1.8 Calcined Bauxite H 720 579 577 614 -10.0 -0.2 6.4 Alumina H 260 230 Ï29 211 -11.5 -39.6 63.6 Alumina Hydrate H 17 10.1 23 14 -40.6 127.7 -39.1 36.0 9.0 51 -75.0 466.7 Aluminous Cement Grade Bauxite ! H 1 - - Gold '000 ozs 12 15 11 11 -25.0 -6.7 Diamonds '000 carats 17 17 16 10 6.3 -11.8 1 Source: Statistical Bureau, Guyana. I - -37.5 GUYANA TABEE VI INDICATORS OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION Unit 1977 1978 1979 1980 242 Sugar '000 tonnes 246 330 303 Edible Oil '000 litres 1,555 1,409 1,159 Margarine Tonnes 2,033 1,937 1,983 Flour '000 tonnes 35 36 40 Molasses Million litres 90 117 63 e Stock Feeds '000 tonnes 37 50 57 Rum '000 proof gallons 3,249 3,380 Cigarettes Millions 558 Soap Tonnes Paints '000 litres Timber '000 cubic metres Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 34.1 -8.2 -9.4 -17.7 2,888 -4.7 2.4 45.6 36 2.9 11.1 -10.0 30.0 -53.8 55 35.1 14.0 -3.5 3,546 3,997 4.0 4.9 12.7 519 549 567 -7.0 5.8 3.3 1,916 1,653 1,569 2,053 -13.7 -5.1 30.8 1,718 1,473 1,200 522- -14.3 -18.5 -56.5 138r -4.0 -8.9 -10.3 176r 169r 154r 1/ February-December 1980. S o u r c e :TheS t a t i s t i c a l Bureau, M i n i s t r y of Economic Development, Guyana. -20.1 GUYANA TABLE VII VOLUME OF SELECTED EXPORTED PRODUCTS Unit' 1977 1978 1979 1980p Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 MAIN TRADITIONAL EXPORTS Bauxite (dried/calcined) '000 tonnes 1,600 1,601 1,578 1,587 0.1 -1.4 0.6 Alumina/alumina hydrate M 267 251 146 225 -6.0 -41.8 54.1 Sugar II 211 286 268 252 35.5 -6.3 -6.0 Rice II 67 107 86 92 59.7 -19.6 7.0 MAIN NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS '000 proof gallons Rum Molasses '000 tonnes 3 Timber 'ooo m Shrimp Tonnes Diamonds '000 carats Source: ; t o o — 22.3 13.9 95 •«« 39.3 -23.4 36 49 • • » 684 763 744 11.6 10 11 11 10.0 1,510 1,847 2,103 89 124 36 - 36.1 -2.5 — The Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development and data supplied CEPAL. GUYANA TABLE VIII VALUE OF EXPORTS OF SELECTED PRODUCTS Millions of Dollars 1979P 1977 1978 252.7 250.3 273.8 78.6 78.0 185.7 . , „ , „ ^ Annual Growth Rate 1 9 8 0 ^ 1978 1979 1980 373 - 0 . 1 9.4 36.2 53.7 108 -0.7 -31.1 101.1 234.6 226.3 294 26.3 -3.5 29.9 66.8 96.0 80.8 87 43.6 -15.8 7.7 583.8 658.9 634.6 862 12.8 -3.7 35.8 24 26.3 30.2 92.0 12 48.3 47.2 -8.4 16 19.8 31.2 11.9 9 0.8 41.9 -48.9 66.5 33.3 - 22.3 37.4 5.9 • 0 4.0 13.8 » • 0 12.8 -0.5 MAIN TRADITIONAL EXPORTS Bauxite (dried/calcined) Alumina/alumina hydrate Sugar Rice Sub-Total MAIN NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS Rum 7.6 r 9.6 Molasses 6.0 r 8.9 Timber 9.1 10.9 14.3 Shrimp 12.3 12.4 17.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 2 59.5 63 Diamonds Sub-Total r 12.5 r r 13. I r e 35.4 Re-Exports TOTAL EXPORTS Source: r 34. 652.5 r 736.3 732.9 9.3 TOTAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS 43.3 32.8 Other Exports r 13.9 9.8 Ott* 49.5 -29.5 661.8 750.2 742.7 983 13.4 -1.0 l r 38.8 • The S t a t i s t i c a l B u r e a u , M i n i s t r y of Economic Development, Guyana. 32.3 GUYANA TABLE IX DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY SITC SECTIONS Millions of Dollars 1977 Food and Live Animals 274.3 Beverages and Tobacco 9.1 Crude Materials, Inedible except Fuels Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and related Materials Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats 1978 1979 ; January-May 1979 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 — 198CF-' 354.0 ; 340.6 117.1 108.1 29.1 -3.8 -7.8 11.6 15.4 6.2 9.7 27.5 32.8 56.4 341.5 340.8 342.8 157.0 187.6 0.2 0.6 19.5 — — — — _ _ _ — — — _ _ _ — — Chemicals 7.7 8.9 11.5 5.1 4.5 15.6 29.2 -11.8 Manufactured Goods classified by Materials 5.1 4.9 6.0 2.7 2.9 -3.9 22.4 7.4 Machinery and Transport Equipment 3.4 7.3 7.2 1.2 0.8 114.7 -1.4 -33.3 10.8 8.3 8.0 2.3 2.7 -23.1 -3.6 17.4 180.0 166.7 12.8 -0.5 8.6 47.9 -29.5 13.3 -1.0 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles Commodities and Transactions not classified according to kind TOTAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS TOTAL RE-EXPORTS 1 i 0.5 Ò.5 1.4 0.3 0.8 652.5 736.3 732.9 291.9 317.0 9.4 13.9 ; TOTAL EXPORTS 661.9 . 750.2 9.8 742.7 « « « 1/ January-May, Source : Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development, Guyana, GUYANA TABLE X IMPORTS OF GOODS Millions of Dollars January-May % Breakdown Annual Growth Rate 1977 1978 1979 1979 1980 1970 1980^ 1978 1979 1980^ 143.0 131.1 147.3 51.3 49.5 34.8 12.6 -8.3 12.4 -3.5 (65.0) (62.6) (62.6) (21.2) (22.0) (11.4) (-3.7) ( - ) (3.8) Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods 410.9 421.2 511.8 168.4 254.7 29.0 64.9 2.5 21.5 51.2 Capital Goods 226.5 153.6 145.9 55.8 86.1 36.3 21.9 -32.2 -5.0 54.3 Miscellaneous 24.0 5.2 5.1 2.6 2.2 0.0 0.6 -78.3 -1.9 -15.4 804.4 711.1 810.1 278.3 392.5 100.0 100.0 -11.6 13.9 41.0 Consumer Goods Food TOTAL GOODS IMPORTED (5.6) 1/ January-May„ Source: Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development, Guyana. < GUYANA TABLE XI IMPORTS BY SITC SECTIONS 1977 Millions of Dollars ( G - Q January-May 1978 12Z2 1m. 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1/ 1978 1979 1980-' -6.8 15.0 18.0 22.2 6.2 Food and Live Animáis 100.1 93.3 107.3 37.8 44.6 Beverages and Tobacco 4.2 3.6 4.4 1.6 1.7 -14.3 Crude Materials, Inedible except Fuels 9.0 7.0 7.0 2.7 3.3 -22.2 170.2 230.7 54.9 129.0 5.9 35.5 135.0 18.2 20.1 9.4 4.4 22.1 10.4 -53.2 79.2 82.2 35.4 24.4 8.3 3.8 -31.1 155.3 168.4 66.2 63.8 1.6 8.4 -3.6 146.5 145.5 54.8 102.3 -34.3 -0.7 86.7 33.6 40.3 13.5 17.6 -22.6 19.9 30.4 Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials 160.7 Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats 14.9 Chemicals 73.1 Manufactured Goods, Classified by Materials 152.9 Machinery and Transport Equipment 223.1 22.2 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 43.4 Commodities and Transactions not classified according to Tcind 22.9 4.1 4.3 1.9 1.2 -82.1 4.9 -36.8 804.3 711.1 810.1 278.3 392.5 -11.6 13.9 41.0 TOTAL IMPORTS Source : Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development, Guyana. » - 25 - GUYANA tablé: xii EVOLUTION OF URBAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1970 = 100) Ail Items Index SUB-GROUP Food^ 1975 144.5 168.9 153.4 113.2 135.2 1976 157.5 192.2 162.5 113.4 147.6 1977 170.5 208.7 185.9 115.3 164.5 1978 196.5 244.7 240.7 116.6 195.4 1979 231.4 291.0 313.2 125.3 228.6 1980 264.0 326.2 365.6 140.7 273.4 Clothing INDICES Housing Miscellanem ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1975 5.9 8.1 9.0 13.8 5.9 0.2 9.2 1977 8.2 8.6 14.4 1.7 11.4 15.2 17.2 29.5 1.1 18.8 1979 * 10.5 1978 > 8.3 1976 » 7.9 17.8 18.9 30.1 7.4 17.0 1980 14.1 12.1 16.7 12.3 19.6 1/ Includes Beverages and Tobacco. Source: » Annual Report'1979, Bank of Guyana; Statistical Bulletin, April 1981, Bank of Guyana. GUYANA TABLE XIII MONETARY BALANCE (G$ Mill.) Balance at end of Period 1977 r 1978 Annual Growth Rate p 1980 1979 1978 1979 1980p 281 297 284r 323 5 .7 -4 .4 13. 7 Currency outside banks 143 156 148 167 9 .1 -5 .1 12.8 Demand deposits 138 141 135 156 2 .2 -4 .2 15.6 FACTORS OF EXPANSION 661 794 897 1,068 20 .1 13 .0 19.1 -109 -59 -182 -396 54 .1 -208 .5 -117.6 770 853 l,084r 1,464 64 .9 27 .1 35.1 MONEY (M ) Foreign assets (net) Domestic credit r Government (net) (534) (603) (743) (1,029) (12 .9) (22 .2) (38.5) Official entities (123) (127) (177) (236) (3 .2) (39 .4) (33. 3) (8 .8) (33 .3) (21. 3) r Private sector (113) (123) (164) (199) FACTORS OF ABSORPTION 380 497 620r 741 30 .8 24 .7 19.5 Quasi-money (M„) time deposits; 322 370 430r 527 14 .9 16 .2 22.5 58 127 190r 214 118 .9 49 .6 12.6 Other items (net) Source: (savings and Annual 'Reportr1979, Bank of Guyana, and data supplied CEPAL. - 27 GUYANA TABLE XIV CENTRAL GOVERNMENT INCOME AND EXPENDITURE 1977P 1978P 1979P 1980P Annual Growth Rate 1980 1978 1979 Current Income 331.0 362.4 396.1 453.9 9.5 9.3 14.6 Tax Revenue 298.3 309.6 328.1 406.4 3.8 6.0 23.9 Direct 157.6 161.2 165.9 193.0 2.3 2.9 16 „ 3 Indirect 140.7 148.4 162.2 213.4 5.5 9.3 31.6 Other Revenue 32.7 52.8 68.0 47.5 61.5 28.8 --30.1 416.4 485.3 581.3 723.0 16.5 19.8 24,4 Wages and Salaries 157.9 182.0 178.1 196.0 15.3 -2.1 10.0 Other Currently Expenditure- 1 . 303.3 403.2 527.0 17.3 32.9 30.7 2. Current Expenditure 258.5 3. Saving on Current Account (1-2) -85.4 --122.9 --185.2 -269.1 4. Capital Expenditure 169.1 147.5 104.2 88.6 Other Capital Expenditure 64.9 58.9 5. Total Expenditure (2+4) 585.5 632.8 Real Investment 6. Fiscal Deficit (or surplus (1-5)) 207.0 333.0 — -12.8 40.3 60.9 24.6 34.0 -15.0 o » e 788.3 1P56.0 -9.2 8.1 -254.5 -270.4 -392.2 -602.1 1/ Includes amortization on public debt. Source: Statistical Bulletin, April/May 1981, Bank of Guyana and Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development, Guyana. GUYANA TABLE XV RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (Cents per imperial gallon) GASOLENE Regular Premium Period Kerosene Diesel Oil Fuel LPG per 100-lb. ... 1972 .79 .91 .51 .48 .30 1976 2.10 2.21 1.18 1.36 1.10 1977 2.50 2.71 1.26 1.56 1.19 1978 2.97 3.25 1.26 1.56 1.25 39.85 1979 4.30 4.56 2.28 2.89 1.90 63.00 1980 5.11 5.34 3.75 3.69 3.00 63.00 Source: Energy Unit, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Guyana. GUYANA ' TABLE. XVI VOLUME OF IMPORTS OF SELECTED HYDROCARBONS Classification Number Commodity Crude Petroleum Unit 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 ^ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9 5 0 9 5 0 5 3 0 5 4 0 3 5 5 1 3 , 3 0 0 1 1 , 8 6 0 1 1 , 4 0 0 1 2 , 1 3 0 8 , 8 7 4 6 , 9 2 0 5 , 7 6 0 6 , 0 0 0 6 , 5 5 0 3 , 9 8 2 - - - - - 3 3 1 . 0 1 Natural Gas Liquids Natural Gas Aviation Gasolene 3 3 2 . 1 1 Motor Gasolene 3 3 2 . 1 3 Kerosene, illuminating 3 3 2 . 2 3 Jet Fuel 3 3 2 . 2 1 '000 gals. it it Diesel Oil-' 3 3 2 . 3 2 i t Gas 0il-/ 3 3 2 . 3 1 I I 2 / Liquified Petroleum Gas ' 0 0 0 lbs. 4 1 , 6 0 0 - 1 2 , 7 5 0 4 0 , 2 1 0 - 1 1 , 9 4 0 3 5 , 0 0 0 - 1 4 , 3 0 0 3 5 , 7 1 0 - 1 0 , 5 1 0 2 8 , 1 4 9 - 1 0 , 1 3 4 3 / Other Gases- 3 4 1 . 1 1 Bunker "C" Fuel Oil 3 3 2 . 4 1 1/ January-September 1980. - '000 gals. 7 4 , 5 6 0 - 8 8 , 0 5 6 - 1 0 5 , 1 0 0 2/ Includes gas oil. 3/ Liquid butane and propane. Source; Energy Unit, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Guyana. - 7 2 , 0 8 0 - 5 4 , 5 5 1 GUYANA TABLE XVII VALUE OF IMPORTS DF SELECTED HYDROCARBONS ('000 dollars) Commodity Classification Number 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 - - - - - Natural Gas Liquids - - - - - Natural Gas - - - - 1/ - Crude Petroleum 331.01 Aviation Gasolene 332.11 1,610 1,650 1,000 1,860 1,672 Motor Gasolene 332.13 14,000 13,610 13,700 25,500 25,457 Kerosene 332.23 7,710 6,670 7,100 13,500 12,728 Jet Fuel 332.21 - - - 2/ Diesel Oil— 332.32 44,150 44,250 41,800 64,760 80,745 2/ Gas Oil-' 332.31 - - - - - Liquified Petroleum Gas i 3,060 3/ Other Gases- 341.11 Bunker "C" Fuel Oil 332.41 _1/ January-September 1980. 2,930 3,800 - 4,050 - 58,910 - - - 80,310 88,300 84,890 90,014 2/ Includes gas oil. 3/ Liquid butane and propane. Source: 5,695 Energy Unit, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Guyana. GUYANA TABLE XVIII INSTALLED CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY Year INDUSTRIAL AND PUBLIC Total Thermal Hydro INDUSTRIAL Total Thermal Hydro Total PUBLIC Thermal INSTALLED CAPACITY ('00 kW) 1976 180e 180e e 75 75 1977 180e 180e 75e 1978 180e 180e 1979 180e 180e 1980 o e • 0 • 0 e 95e 75e 95e 95e 75e 75e 95e 95e 75e • 95e 75e 95e 95e 0 • ft • • PRODUCTION (Million kWh) 1976 392 392 1977 431 431 1978 405 405 1979 407 407 1980 Source: Quarterly Statistical Digest, January-December 1978, the Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development. Installed Capacity data from World Energy Supplies, 1973-78 UN Statistical Office. Hydro GUYANA TABLE XIX ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION (Hundred thousand kWh) 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 Total Electricity Generated 3 9 1 . 7 4 3 0 . 7 4 0 4 . 9 4 0 7 . 0 Total Consumed (sold) 3 5 3 . 4 3 8 6 . 8 3 6 1 . 6 3 5 1 . 5 Residential (households) 8 2 . 9 Commercial (260.6 ( 82.0 9 4 . 5 ( Industrial 86.8 2 8 8 . 7 2 7 1 . 2 10.0 1 1 . 3 8 . 4 3 8 . 3 4 3 . 0 4 3 . 3 2 4 5 . 4 Street lighting Other 11.6 Own Use Transmission losses N.B. 5 5 . 5 Data exclude sugar estates and small private plants. Source: Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Economic Development, Georgetown, Guyana. 1 9 8 0 PART IX JAìoaICA COUNTRY NOTES i i i i i ECONOMIC SURVEY 1980 JAMAICA (Jamaican dollars used throughout except where otherwise stated) / Recent Trends in Economic Activity The Gross Domestic Product for 1980 in terms of constant purchasers' value (1974) amounted to approximately $1848. million, a decline of 8.4 per cent from the 1979 figure which itself represented a decline of approximately 1.4 per cent below the 1978 figure. During.1980, most economic sectors contributed to this decline in the total Gross Domestic Product. Notable.among.them were. Manufacturing and Construction-, ..the .GDP-of which fell.by 12-per-cent and-.30-.per cent respectively. Agriculture. GDP. declined, by 3 per cent. On the other hand, financing and insurance services and mining increased in the order of 9 an 10 per cent respectively, while .electricity and water remained close to its 19?9 level. The major contributor to the total product was the sector "Producers of Government Services"which contributed 19.6 per cent. High unemployment prevailed.during.1980.althoughJthe.figure for the year represented an increase slightly.above 2 per cant of the previous year's level. At the . a e . timethe.-number., of- persons employed rose-by 5 per. cant sm.. due to a recovery over.abnormally depressed-labour market conditions existing at the end of 1979. However, this apparent improvement was shadowed by the significant overall fall in production. ^ In the external sector, although the balance of payments deficit persisted, the increase was far less than that of the previous year. In 1979, the deficit, grew, by 53 per cent, but .rose by a meie.6 per cent in 1980. This improved-situation ma.y_be-attributed-to the markedly, increased capital inflows to the Central-Government, the accumulation of arrears on current transactions of the private sector due to the lack of foreign exchange as well aa the deferment of debt payments of the public sector. i -2- The rate of inflation stood at.approximately,27.per_cent above the 1979 average .level of the consumer. price index.- .Inflation was. stimulated-by ^ developments, in.the external sector as well.as by the relatively substantial increase in. the money, supply..and increases.in. Government.expenditure.. Money supply increased by approximately 33 per cent while Government expenditure grew by 36 per cent to the end of fiscal year 1980-1981. Table XIV refers, * Determinants of Recent Trends Because of the .open, nature, of the economy, domestic ..and. external d e t e r m i n a n t s . a r e _ c l o s e l y i n t e r r e l a t e d - a n d - i t - i s very difficult to classify each factor into a distinct category. ( The following determinants may be considered as mainly of external origin: a) the higb-.prices of petroleum and petroleum- products; b) prices of commodity exports and the related unfavourable long-run terms of trade; c) high prices of imported goods in general; d) drying up of foreign investment, loans and credits; and e) shortage of raw materials unavailable locally. ( The factors that may be considered mainly of domestic origin are: a) lack of growth of private domestic investment; b) natural d i s a s t e r s , . h u r r i c a n e s » , s e v e r e , f l o o d i n g . . a n d drought and plant diseases; c) sluggish .growth in„Government .revenues; and d) socio-economic problems..including_violence-and..praedial--.... . . larceny and industrial disputes. < < Certain other, factors., which, appear inseparable as to. origins., are- .. scarcity. of -foreign-exchange., to purchase-raw. materials, tools and other ^ inputs for use in agriculture, industry, etc.; migration of'skilled personnel; and the general decline 'in tourism. Certain, socio-political developmeu-ts-also,.strongly, influenced, economic activity during 1980, among these are: escalation of political and criminal | violence, including crimes such as praedial larceny; election year trauma, I characterized by economic malaise and violence; gcowing unemployment and enforced reductions in social services. The severe balance of payments position of Jamaica in recent years resulted in drawings on the IMP ordinary credit facilities such as the cred tranche and.compensatory drawings.. -The worsening-position resulted-in agreement during.1978-to make . use.-of_ the. Fund . s Extended-Facility with i ts ' attendant., tests of - conditionallty - to determine, whether continued-drawings under the. Eund-.would, be.. permitrecL... _By. the..end., of i.979. because of upward revisions..of-key import.prices, Jamaica, could..not meet one conditionallty test and., this required.a special waiver if drawings under .the. Fund .were to continue*..This waiver, was.conditional.on more.stringent-public.expenditure criteria.and-as-these.were.rejected, by.the Government. as being-too-onerous, the agreement-was terminated_in.- .March..l9aO^ . This decision, and.the . consequential shortfalls, of. foreign- fund in g...obsiiously had further .severe . impact on the Jamaic.an.. eco namy ~ d ur i n g -19 8 0...Ihe_ "go-it-alone" .policy was designed-to be ..only slightly-more, moderate . than. the., stringent, policy of . fiscal, restraint-required-ux^der. the ..conditions set by the Fund. In fact, machinery was introduced aftiec mid-year by the Government to monitor I : i: -' control on a day-to-day basis. In addition to pur suing-tight.±iscal . tes r rain% p?Licies.were implemer» with varying-degrees-of.. sue. ess, . tc. entourage-domestic ..production^. to s timulate.. production- of., exp yet - Indusfcz1 &a.. with. hxgli_f axeign ..exchange- ea.rn.ii potential^, to—economize.on foreign. =xrhange_uss_and.-tjo.£tablize wages and prices by keeping closely within the guidelines established under the previously instituted io'omes and.pxir.e.policies*ACTIVITY IN THE MAIN SECTORS Agriculture National Accounts data. show .t.hat-in.-terms. of..constant. (1974) prices, agriculture GDP...gxew. by 9 pe,:. c a m during-1978 but declined by II per. cent during_1979. Preliminary:estimates for 1980. indicate-a-decline, of approximately. 3 per. cent to approximately $161 million. The share of agriculture of total GDP, 8.7 per cent, is about the same as at the beginning of the 1970's. < -4All agriculture sub-sectors except domestic agriculture.contributed, to the 1980. decline, but in terms of volume of output export,agriculture. appeared, to be worst affected. registered increases. ( Only citrus and cocoa of the major crops Production of the important sugar-cane.and banana crops declined.by 8 and.52 per cent respectively. In terms of gross earnings, the decline in export agriculture was much smaller,.but only because of more < favourable prices of. some agricultural commodities, during-1980-_. Available . data show that.the domestic.agriculture.sub-sdctor. increased.by.7 per cent in real terms due mainly to increases in vegetables and non-export tree dfiopst. Fishing and forestry did not appear very buoyant during the year. I The multiplicity of factors which have, affected.agriculture during, the past several.years, persisted .in 1980. These include, the .unavailability of plan ting.materials.,...limited, availability, .of ..imported., inputs, owing.to. the foreign exchange..shortage»..high . c s . of inputs, . inclement.weather and. praedial .ot, larceny .. . During. 1979-1980, strikes, natural..disasters .and. plant diseases also took considerable.toll. For example».virtually the entire.sactor was affected . by Hurricane Allen in. early „August. 1980 Economic, losses ..were estimated, at. $514 .million.and..foreign.-exchange..lo.ss...at..$54..iaiJJLLQn^ ..Banana. ' cul t ivation. damage, varied . f o . 50 .to 90 .per. cent in., different .locations - . In .rm. 1979, massive., flooding . . a - affected, some, areas of. . t e . country and., along... with. .hd .h j droughts._in_.ot.her..sections.of the.country in.1979 (and earlier) reduced production of . some . crops .coming-to .maturity. ,during„1980<, — The. important sugar-cane, industry was affected.by both sugar-cane "rust" and "smut" diseases in 1979 and 1980; bananas were affected by "leaf-spot" disease and tobacco by "blue-mould" disease. A programme .for agricultural.. r!ehab ilitation.estimated at..$48 millionwas being implemented during, the last .ti^iie of 1980. .jifS'r Replanting of. disease-resistanjf sugar-cane farieties. programmed ,a±. .2Q»000 acres. ,(8,094 hectares) per year .over, a six-year period went into ..effect during .1980 and the target was exceeded for that year. { Replanting of devastated banana cultivation was initiated also before the end of the year. Mining < Mining GDP reached $148 million (in 1974 constant prices) during 1979, a decrease of 1.6 per cent below the 1978 total. However, during 1980, < mining GDP rose to $163 million, an increase of 10.3 per cent above the figure for 1979. The mining sector is dominated by the bauxite/alumina sub-sector which has contributed over. 95 per cent of .the sector's GDP. in recent years. Bauxite and alumina production had .declined slightly. and. gyp.sum. significantly during.1979. as shown in. Table IV.. During 1980,.. production of these three commodities . increased, t bauxite by 5 per cent, . alumina, by . ,17 per cent and gypsum by 44 per cent. However, the level of production in 1980 was still below the average levels of the earlier years of the 1970's. Two major factors influenced expansion in the bauxite/alumirta. sub-sector during ±980^ These were: increased world demand for aluminium,, apparent since. 1978-1979.,...and. the revision.of. the ..bauxite production levy.. World consumption o f -ainmmi-um- had., increased, .more—than „produc tion- so that . inventory levels had declined, and. prices, had. risen... At the' same time, the bauxite production levy had operated apparently as a disincentive to production s ince its imposition m 1976.. Effective since midrJuLy 1979 is a revised levy which includes a production.incentive, formula.while at the same time guaranteeing. the. Government., a.basic, minimum. l e z . of . revenue. .\el During.1980, production capacity was utilized more fully but the Bauxite Production Levy intake was 5.4 per cent below the figure for 1979, In the quarrying sub-sector a general, slight increase in production was experienced. The gypsum sub-sector depends largely on activity in construction which declined sharply. During_1980». several new projects were initiated.by. the Government. Joint venture.agreements.involving.partial.acquisition of.miniag-lands and. operations were entered into .with several bauxite. companies.^.. . Particular note should be. taken. the.agreement-between. the..Gairernment..of_ Jamaica and one bauxite enterprise.whereby 100 per cent.of the farming assets,and all lands apart from that on which mining facilities are located, were to be acquired by Government. Policy measures outlined by the Government in the latter part of 1980, regarding the bauxite/'alumina industry focussed on the attainment of maximum production. With the renewed co-operation between Government and locally-based foreign companies, it is expected that there will be further growth of the mining sector during 1981, if prices remain firm. Manuf ac turing Official GDP estimates for.this sector for 1980,.show a decrease of 12 per cent in. real.terms to.$276 million.. During the previous three years manufacturing GDP, measured in constant (1974) prices, declined, on average, by more than 5 per cent per year. Most of the quantum.indicators of production, including.those for the important-food,- tobacco..products » petroleum .products, and. non-metallic mineral products, sub-sectors .declined. during.1980.,. . The. few. exceptions include flour.and..bakery..products .and heverages Prices however, were . quite buoyant for sugar., and other export items and seme prices were also higher in the domestic market as indicated by the positive growth in current price GDP. ! As far as other other indicators are concerned, during 1980. loans and advances owed.by the. sector, to commercial ..banks, had.increased. by. 39. per cent. .Electricity sales.by public utilities to industry (and commerce) had declined but the average numbers of persons employed during the year in manufacturing increased. This sector suffered, during..1980..from„the. factors . affecting, the economy outlined above. .In..addition, .there..was a. scarcity..of.-.some, domestic agricultural, inputs., such . a . sugar-carte, .and. tobacco. . Industrial... disputes .s, reduced the number., of ..man-hours .worked., . Production., of „.petroleum, products. . . . was deliberately ..restrained .under...the..national.. energy, conservation policy and production of some construction materials was lower,, induced by the lower level of activity in the construction sector. Construction The sector, had. been one of , the most . dynamic up to. the .early .1970's ...... accounting .for. more. than. .13, perl cent, .of. GDP.. (in., const, a t . pxiees.)... during n.. 1970. Since then the trend of activity has declined and has had considerable impact on the general decline in overall economic activity. Real construction activity which, had ..increased -by. about.. 4 per cent in 1978 declJj3ad_.sligktly- in.1979 but decreased sharply . in. 1980. by an. . . estimated...30 per. cent: to $96 million. In other words, . construction- activity in real.terms during.1980 was only about.37 per cent of the level achieved during.1970^. .Nearly. all of. the.indicators.of. construction activity shown in Table .VI. of. the. 3tatistical_Appendix...reflact„the.decline,. notably domes tic . production.. o . . selected. important. building-ma t er i a 3 s- .The value. f. . of imports of-building-materials_.declined_by 25 per cent but the decline is . 1/ larger in terms, of..¡constant. prifces„ Mortgage loans of building-societies— increased-by - 30.per cent but loans for new Rouses increased by only 8 per cent. In addition, employment in the sector fell by approximately 20 per cent. It appears that government!s construction..projects, dominated the sector once again but the....level.of,government.fi vity. declined^.. Both the number, of starts and.completions of housing-units in.the. public sector, declined., sharply_.during_.1980^ . However, mortgage-disbursements...of. the major public sector, .housing-finance institutions increased significantly. This increase' contains a lacge element of price rises as a result of increased construction costs. This sector has been affected.considerably, by the prolonged..down-turn of economic-activity» . the. shortage_of foreign.exchange. .(both.of...which. . have r educed. InvesijaenL... in.. £.hs sector) , reduced- availability., of. building . materials, ' . a s . . v e i l . = . J i . s t e e p - r i s e . . i n . c o n s t r u c t i o n - c a s t s . . Public a_tte construction, expenditure has. been providing.the bulk.of activity recently owing to the rapid.decline in. private construction. However, even this expenditure has had to b= curtailed in the light of the slow growth of Governmeiit revenue and scarcity of fbreign funds. 1/ Major co-operative non-bank mortgage financing institutions. ( -8THE EXTERNAL SECTOR ( 2/ Balance of Paytaents — Preliminary, balance, of. payments- data. for. 1980. show, that once more. the. net result of external transactions was negative, although the overall position.was better than in. 1979. The.Balance.of.Payments, deficit in 1980 was approximately $34 million compared with $153 million in 1979. (Data are given in Table XI of the Statistical Appendix and Table 1 below). The main features..during._1980,were: . a . increase, in., the..deficit..on. .n, mechaxidise- trade,... further... improvement...in., net. transfer, payments,. a . . significant improvement, in. foreign, travel, which »...however,., was. more . than offset by a .larger_o.utflow of ..investment. income and other service items, so that the net services deficit was larger than in 1979# and a large ( increase in net capital inflow. With respect to merchandise trade,.both . export s_and~imports.increased, . but the.value.-of imports-increased .by. a larger, f igure_resulting„.in...the slightly larger net def icit..in-1980^. . The-positive.features., of .merchandise. traded ^ were: the. solid-performanr.e..of..the-bauxi te/alumina„ sector,., the..performance. of. beverages... and—tobacco..products, - increased_expofcts..of- non-1radirional. commodities,.. higher- prices - no. tab ly. f or.. some ..agri cultural- commodities.- and a deliberate restraint... of.. imports—owing-to~ the ..serious-foreign exchange . . | ... . . .. position... . .Baux±te-.and-.alumina..exp-orts...were about. 28.per cent higher than during-19.79«... Non^traditional-exports. have ..been stimulated..by the. government through ...certain., special-pro.gxammes,...including „recently, established. Export. Development..'Fund„and., the..Certif ied-.,Exporteris..Scheme,. (These..programmes-.give * preference to the firms involved in obtaining access to scarce foreign exchange. On the other hand, there were 'several offsetting factors. ... 2J , i Value figures in this sub-section are given in US dollars. ( Agricultural exports, were lower .in terms of volume and value.though in most cases prices, were.higher.^. In. this . connection sugar, .and.banana exports were particularly responsible. The value.of. imports.(f.o.b.) during.1980. increased., by . about. 18 .per cent- to- more than. $1039 .million -aided, mainly by mineral f uels...and ..mac.hinery.-and . transport, equipments . ..Higher.--price3. were. responsible.for.jimich_of_this.increase because the volume of imports was restrained by the shortage of foreign exchange and the relatively weak external credit position. Imports of. crude, petroleum for the, oil ..refinery., and .the smaller . imports.. of petraleum_pxoducts. have. strongly_infiuenced. the . upward movement . of total imparts.. Petroleum.imports.moved.from.$57 ..million, in 1972. to approximately. $287-.million.in. 1979. (Data.are. given.in Table XVI of the Statistical ..Appendix.).-, The. petroleum. impjort. flgu.te. reached..$418..miliioD . during. 19.8Q.aljh.ough major conservation.programmes were, implemented during. the year., and _indu-s trial activities ..had, decli ned On—the, other .hand ,. the volume o . oil impoxts_wkich~axc.eeded-2.Q--mi 111on..harrels during 1973 has f. declined almost continuously thereafter. The volume of petroleum imports for 1980 was recorded at 15.6 million barrels. The Importance.of petroleum.imports, and the impact.of changes.in the petroleum..market~on-the..economy of. Jamaica..are evident. . During..1980, the value of. imports, of. peti-oieum.as. a-share..of_total-imports„rose. to approximately 36 per, cent.. During . 1 9 . . t h a . h a r e ..was.. only 9 per.cent.. . In. terms, of. . ..s ability to...pay..for .petr.cleum-.imports* it. should...be. noted, that, oil imports exceeded.35. per cent of the value .of total, exports.in.1979 and 43 per cent in 1980. The. situation, stands out in sharper relief when it is realized that the period since 1972 has been one of general decline in domestic economic activity. With respect to the.services account».the overall deficit for 1980 of $19.4 million.represents-an_increase.of .25.per_cent„over. the 1979. deficit. This., adverse, balance.. resulted_mainly..from.. the .significantly. higher investment-income, outflow. - 31 per. cent..higher.than..the. figure for 1 . 9 , . Ner_foxeiga_.trajrel..receipts_increased by about 25 per cent to 97... $230 million. Transfer payments which have become quite substantial, increased again in 1980 by 17 per cent. -10The net inflows on the capital .account - have-.been_r.elaiively small., in recent, years, ...decXining_.to...a_net...outflQW position.of. $10.4..million . i .n 1979. Net -capital...inflows... increased..significantly to $148..million in 1980. Official capital, inflows increased, by 69 per.cent .to $120.million, while private, capital-inflows moved, to.. $27 million.. The ...improvement. on., the. capital, account-was. largely due. to . a general, decline, in outflows..on .. . government--direcr...an.d...guar.an.teed_debt... as.a.result-of ..government ' s .negotiated . debt deferral- on-principal, payments...falling-diia, ..th£_paxtial..suspensi.on of payment- on. private... debt -a.s . well- as. . ..marked.. increase-, in -.special... f inancing. , a The latter-inciluded-additional .assistance from..bilateral_.sources,..a_ special IBRD. loan..of--$2.4. 7. million, for., the. Export. Development. Fund.. (E.U~F-.) and also commercial bank refinancing and unscheduled debt relief lines of credit extended to the private sector rose by over 50 per cent. Provisional .data on_ foreign. exchange...reserves. indicate .a, deficit of. .. approximately . $454 millio.n_.as at. December 1980. This figure represents a moderate decline of only 5 per cent compared with the decline of 49 per cent recorded in 1979. ToMQ I Selected External Sector Data (J$ Mill.) " 2.979 Imports (f.o.b.) Mineral Fuel Imports Total Exports (f.b.b.) Balance Net Foreign Travel Net -Inve'stmeiit X e o i ä . • feii Government Foreign. Delf 'ilyi&easS P International Reserves (end of period) Source: 1980 % Change 1979-1980 883 287 815 - 68 185 -203 317 1039 418 961 - 78 230 - 265 335 . 17.7 45.6 17.9 14.7 24.3 30.5 5.7 -426 - 452 Derived from official statistics. 6.1 External Debt External debt has grown rapidly in. the last four years. At the end of fiscal year 1977-1978, the figure.was $627 million*, but ..had .reached . $1545 million.by December. 198Q-... Foreign. debt servicing-costs have also grown very rapidly and amounted to $465 million during 1980 while export receipts have grown slower and real GDP had declined. In recent years,. due. to. the. decrease in .private~capital_inf lows and marked rise in .outf lowsy it...became, necessary to increase borrowing overseas. However, despite this, domestic borrowing has continued to exceed foreign borrowing.»... PRICES 3/ The average level of.prices — during-1980-exceeded-the. level prevailing during-1979 by 27 .per. cent... The_monthly-indexes-for-1980„showed an_ . irregular pattern, - the .-.largest_.incr eases,. approximately..4 .per. cent* . occurring-during_Jaimaxy.-and -May , ..and_ the ..smaller .monthly-increases.. (around... , 1 per cent- and_lower) ..occurring-in-March, „April, September...and! December^,. An. important. factox_in price, increases.during. 1979..was. the .monthly..devaluation of the currency up tc May. Ihcugh devaluation did not occur during 1980, the price increase was not substantially lower than in 1979. Fuels and food and beverages..were .the items .which exerted the major upward pressure .on prices .during_the.year». ..Between..December..l979. knd December . 19.80»_iu£l_pxires. increased .by 56 per. cent,..starchy, food and. cereals.by 65.per. cent .and meals... away , f r om.. home . .b y. 3 4 _ . e r. c e n t« . 0n_ the., other, . p hand »„rent. iner ea=ad_.o;ni.y D - 0.4..per . cent, . other..recreation-.expenses-.hy , 5 per cent and transportation by 12.3 per cent. (Data on prices are given in the table below and in Table XV of the Statistical Appendix). Average price paid per barrel of imported crude oil moved from US$2.91 to US$30.37 per barrel between 1972 and 1980. 3/ Data given in Table 2 As measured by ^he average of the monthly Consumer Price Indexes. -12- .... ... below show increases.in prices of.various.petroleum.products...It is notable that-these prices have moved, differently. . from, the ..import prices... . of crude oil. i For. example,, between 1972..and_.19.74 . the retail-price, of premium. gas . increased-by. 108 .per. cent..while-the. avarage..prxce...cf. imported. crude increased.by . 259. per .cent. In ..more recent.-years,...however., ..the . trend has been reversed and_retail.prices of-petroleum_products.has.increased. . . . . ^ faster... This - has., come, about.- because, the-direct. subsidies., were, completely removed during 1979 when the pricing structure of petroleum products was rationalized. Indirect subsidies were to..be-phased out gradually. . . .., ( Table 2 Petroleum,Product Prices 1972rrl979 Prices (in- cents) of Petroleum Products (In gallons) Year 1972 57.7 47.2 18.0 17.0 1973 66.4 55.2 18.0 17.0 1974 120.0 nd.o 36.0 35.9 1975 126.0 116.0 36.0 38.0 1976 126.0 116.0 36.0 38.0 1977 198.0 188.0 36.0, 52.6 1978 300.0 285.0 63.0 68.0 1979 385.0 375.0 147.0 170.0 1980 465.0 455.0.. 257.0. 290.0 Source: Regular Gas ( Premium-. Gas .. Kerosene Retail Diesel Economic and Social Survey, 1979 and 1980, National Planning Agency, FISCAL AND MONETARY SECTORS. during the last two. to.three years The. activities of.. these, sectors have been influenced-not. only by socio-economic-policies., of .the Government and the.course.of.economic developments ..but also by the evolution of efforts between the Government and the International Monetary Fund in attempting to cope with the severe economic problems facing Jamaica. < Use had been made of IMF credi^ (drawings, on credit tranche and.compensatory drawings) since the mid-1970's. However, the Extended Fund Facility was not used until during.the.second quarter.of .1978 and. the Supplementary Financing.Facility hot until the middle of. 1979. Use of these two.latter, facilities was intended.to mobilize.foreign, exchange.resources.to help overcome, the serious structural, problems affecting, the ..country. The May 1978 Agreement provided.for a_iaan of. approximately..US$240_million- over a period of three.years,. contingent on.the fulfillment of certain,periodic conditionally tests. Successful completion.of. the conditional 1 ty criteria during., the fxrst.twelve .months, led-to agreement, in. May-1979 for. a larger loan for the next two years of US$338 million, but.under revised conditions. It was expected that conclusion of these agreements would facilitate the inflow of foreign exchange resources from other sources. By the end of 1979, about US$190.million.had been drawn, under.the agreement with the .Fund». However, the country had. failed. to.„meet_.one. . major criterion», that . i » .maintaining—the. established, ceiling on net. .s foreign..assets_of-the Bank, of Jamaica» Subsequently,. agreement- could not be reached, the.Government.concluding.that.the.revised conditions were too onerous,.and negotiations, were.halted.in March 1980» Government®s.policy however, was committed.to."financial discipline.and.restraint" and fiscal . controls, were.tightened-during the year. As the year ended, the newly constituted government reversed the "go-it-alone" policy and re-opened negotiations with the IMF. Fiscal Operations Government activity as a share of total economic, activity has increased signiticanti^. during, the past decade» In..l970, that share was about 8 per. ceni. irhile. during-L9.77-1980 the share averaged more than 14 per cent. This outcome .is.the.result of the 862.per cent increase in Government-total expenditure, from around..$251-million, in-fiscal-1970-1971 to $2415. million.in...l980r:198.1». Government's expenditure...as .of the end of the decade .was, also. higher.in:teal-.terms~than_at the beginning of the decade. These trends reflect the increased direct involvement of the Government sector in economic activity. -14-r As recently as 1975-1976, a small surplus was realized . on.Government. 4/ current account transactions —.... However, as. economic.-ac_tiv.ity .continued to . decline, attempts- to...reflate.tlieeconomy ..xes.ulted.JLji_liigher ..annual deficits.-. . At the end_of.. fiscal-..L980.-1981,... the .deficit -.amounted-to. $6.75-million. The increaaing-def.i c i ^.xesu^-dl!re^^y...from-tKe faster ..growth of .expenditure . than revenue. This . . s , of. course., on 'the.one. hand. the...cansequfi'nce..of lower .i. economic .activity..which...depressed..thie-pp.tentlal-recurr.ent:.reve]iue intake . . despite, the., tax ..revisions , which-resulted in higher , income.,.,.and consumption taxes in. fiscal. 197 8r-197 9 as shown, in Table XIV. . On. the other ...hand » - . h ..te expend±ture-J>udget-r,has-.huilt-in_i^ . employees.'.. compensation, ...costrof-liv.l.ng. lncreases., - interest...and . amortization parents previously deferred but becoming due in current years, plus higher prices for indispensable goods and services. Total expenditure in fiscal . 1980-1981,-,was. about_.9.4 .per. cent. more.than.. . in fiscal 1977-1978. .. However,- in...real..terms.. expenditufe"appears, to have.. . declined-judgitig_£rQm..th.e..ll3-per . cent, increase in. the. average-level, of .the consumer, price-index..between, these-fiscal .years..-^/.. During-fiscal, year .. 1978-1979. capital-exp.eridituxe._exceeded-.3d--per-cent...Qf . total-expenditure. . . . . while Government .economic, services, on. capital .and..recurrent, account amounted to about . 27,.per. cent of. total, expenditure.. Thus . capital expenditure and. expenditure- on...econcmiic-.services-.have,, both, declined.., as increased.,pressures.. . on revenue_meant_that.development..,expenditures-had..to .be .foregone. Essential . recurrent. expenditur.es_that._.had_-tQ-be.;met„.inGlude debt „repayment and servicing charges which have grown from about 18 per cent to 21 per cent of total expenditure between fiscal 1977-1978 and 1980-1981. 4/ Including transfers from the Capital Development Fund. From April 1977 to March 1980. • ( < -15- The 1980. deficit was financed by Central Bank .credits».domestic bank and non-bank sources as well as foreign borrowing.from.governments, and international institutions* The. Bank, of ..Jamaica .provided financial.. support to the extent of $401 million... to the Central-Government«., The Gross. National.. ... Debt increased .from approximately..$.1808.mi 11 ion.to. $4038.million.between. 1977 and 1980^....Of. this .amount» borrowing., from...external, sources.. grew_from 26 per cent . t approximately. . 0 . p r ..jcent-o.f-.the.,total-.national_.debt-^. .An.. ... .o 4. .e increasing_amount..of—the..locally-held portion of the debt has been financed by the banking system in recent years with all the inflationary consequences implicit in such action. The trend in governmental.operations .during 1980 must be interpreted in the light of general., elections of which announcements were made early in the year. Undoubtedly, .both .the. early announcement and...the .vigorous: . . election campaigns and the clear-cut economic positions of the parties contesting the elections had an impact on activity during the year. Table.3 Selected Ratios Ratios 1977-1978 1978-1979 1979-1980 1980-1981P Government GDP/Total GDP. 14.6 13.6 13.4 14.7 Government Expenditure/Total GDP 41.6 48.7 41.5 51.0 Government Capital Expenditure/ Total Expenditure 32.5 36.3 30.3 32.1 Expenditure on Economic Services/ Total Government ..Expenditure 27.6 27.3 22.6 20.5 Total Debt/Total.GDP. 57.7 72.4 72.5 82.1 Foreign.Debt/Total Debt 26.2 41.9 41.5 39.8 Debt Payments/Total Exports 17.7 22.6 28.9 29.7 Government Employed/ Total Employed 19.6 19.2 20. Ö 19.1 Source: Calculated from official data. -16Monetary Transactions | i { i Banking-. sect.or-. transactions ..may .be. characterized-..as. generally i inflationary during 1980. Comprehensive full-year data indicate a substantial upward push as shown in Tables XII and XIII of the Statistical Appendix. Of the maj or aggregates,, money. .supply.,., particul arl y . demand - deposit a. ^ and .. domestic credit-increased considerably, during„198D~ As at December 1980, Government, credit-had... increased by ..approximately. 14 per. cent compared, to .the . . , total one year. earlier...while..credit-.tQ. the..private...sector..grew_by. approximately.20...per„cent. One non-expansionary element.was..the trend in... net foreign-assets,~as..the large_negative decreases registered in the two earlier years were hot repeated. As of December 1980, the position was almost the same as at end 1979. Another offset to these inflationary-tendencies..was. the . . 7 per ..cent. . . .3. rise in.savings_.and._time_deposits-between..end-.1979..and„19.80^ The.growth._in these .deposits . ref lected ..in .part,.. response...to., interest .rate..increases which were, granted...during-January, 198.0.. — T h e . in t e r e s t . r ateT a n _ s av ing s _ . deposits, ,for.example-,.-increased-by.about, two. percentage ..points . to..9 per. cent. . . Time deposit rates..were.variable-but—in. some- instances,.were_ as. high..ag_16. per cent.during_1980^..It may be noted that net excess liquidity of the commercial banking system increased more significantly during 1980 than the previous year. Reflecting the increases in overall domestic..credit,..loans...and advances. of commercial .banks... continued.. Jto. grow, during,.. 19 8.0. at. 2 . . per_ cent -in. comparison 1. to, the 1 7 par. cent, rate ..observed, during, the . last three, years . Major shares. of these loans have.been.extended-to .individuals .for..personaL..reasons, to. agriculture,..jnanuf.acturing.and...cons truction. . - Loans. outstanding-to., agriculture. ! : and manufactux.ing-increased ...aigni f ir an 11 y.jluring-198 CL f o 11 n.wad~by... personal . loans. and_loans_tJ3-.the_.distrihutive-.trades^.__l!here-was. a„ve.ry ..small-rise., in... loans alio tted- to . t e . construction - industry . . n . a marked _decrease.ln. loans .h.. .ad .. to the.Government.-sector. Instalment-credit-outstanding increased by nearly 20 per cent but new instalment credit grew by only 10 per cent, a rate substantially below the rate of inflation. STATISTICAL AEPENDIX JAMAICA 1980 ( < t < < i ( i < -17JAMAICA TABLE I MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1977r 1978r 1979 1980P 198.i7r 198.2r 195.3r 184.8 Basic economic indicators Gross Domestic Product (Millions of dollars at 1974 prices) Population (Millions of inhabitants) 2.1lr i Per capita Gross Domestic Product (dollars at 1974 prices) 941.7r 2.14r 2.18 2.16 926.2r 847.7 904.2 Annual Percentage Change i Short-run economic indicators Gross Domestic Product (constant prices) - 1.9r Per capita Gross Domestic Product (1974 prices) - 1.6 Terms of Trade (income) - 2.4 16.2 22.6 64.7 26.9 17.3 5.8 61.2 39.2 19.6 Consumer Price Index (annual average)_ 11.2 34.9 29.1 27.1 Money Supply (M^) 48.1 8.3 13.1 32.7 8.0 1.2 13.1 1.5 46.9 37.4 28.7 Value of Domestic Exports Value of Imports i - ... 2.2r - 1.4 - 5.4 - 2.4 - 6.2 - 3.1 Wages and.salaries Rate of unemployment. - 2/ Current Income of Government — 1/ 2.3-V 2/ Total Expenditure of Government — - 5.0 47.0 - 2.6 35.8 Fiscal deficit/total expenditure of Government 2/ - 21.1 9.7 - 7.2 9.0 -18TABLE I (CONT'D) MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1977 1978 1979 1980 -252.6 -15.2 - 64.5 -27.2 - 53.3 - 6.1 Millions of US Dollars External Sector Trade Balance (Balance of Payments) Balance on Current Account Variation in net International Reserves^ 1/ 37.9 -88.6 -47.. 0 1 -50.6 -22.1 1 i Average April and November . 1980 . compared, with, average. April and October».1979. 2 / Rates refer to the fiscal years beginning in April of year . undfer which figure is shown. Thus 1977-1978 is shown under 1977. 1976-1977 Source: National Income and Product, 1979 and 1980, Department of Statistics, Jamaica, tables in this Statistical Appendix, and data supplied CEPAL. JAMAICA TABLE.IIA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY - AT CURRENT PRICES (J$ Mill.) Breakdown 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 7 0 Annual Growth Rate 1 9 8 0 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 7 9 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3 1 3 . 9 3 2 0 . 0 3 9 2 , 2 6 , 7 8 , 3 1 9 , 3 1 , 9 Mining and Quarrying 5 1 0 . 4 6 2 2 , 5 6 7 8 , 0 1 2 , 6 1 4 , 3 6 5 , 7 2 2 , 0 Manufacturing 6 3 6 . 2 6 8 1 , ¡ 6 7 2 1 . 2 1 5 . 7 1 5 . 2 1 6 , 9 7 , 1 5 . 8 8 4 . 2 8 9 , 6 7 9 . 4 1 , 0 1 . 7 4 3 . 9 6 , 4 - 1 1 . 4 2 5 2 , 1 3 1 0 , 5 2 6 9 . 8 1 3 , 3 5 , 7 3 9 , 1 2 3 , 2 - 1 3 , 1 6 3 4 . 9 7 7 2 , 8 9 3 2 , 7 1 9 , 0 1 9 , 7 3 4 , 5 2 1 , 7 2 0 , 7 Transport, Storage and Communication. 2 2 7 . 8 2 5 0 , 9 2 5 2 , 3 5 , 5 5 , 3 1 8 , 6 1 0 , 1 0 . 6 Financing and Insurance Services 1 4 6 , 2 1 6 6 , 0 1 9 8 , 5 3 , 8 4 , 2 2 7 , 2 1 3 , 5 1 9 , 6 Real Estate and Business Services 3 1 9 , 8 3 6 8 ; 8 - 4 0 7 , 1 9 , 4 - 8-»$. 7 , 0 1 5 , 3 1 0 , 4 Producers of Government Services 5 0 9 . 2 5 7 5 6 9 3 , 4 7 . 8 1 4 . 7 1 6 , 6 1 3 , 1 2 0 , 4 Miscellaneous Services 1 7 2 . 5 1 8 6 , 0 2 0 3 , 5 5 , 6 4 , 3 1 3 , 7 7 , 8 9 , 4 5 0 , 4 4 7 , 1 4 4 , 2 1 , 6 0 . 9 1 0 2 . 5 1 4 1 . 4 2 , 0 4 , 2 8 9 . 0 4 , 7 3 0 . 9 1 0 0 , 0 Electricity and Water Construction and Installation Distributive Trade (wholesale and Retail) Household and .Private Non-Profit Institutions Less imputed service charges Total Gross Domestic Product 1 0 4 . 0 . 3 , 7 5 3 , 6 • o . 7 . 1 0 0 , 0 - 5 , 3 2 5 , 7 >Source;• National.Income and Product .1980, Department of Statistics, Jamaica. . - 6 . 5 1 4 , 3 2 2 . 6 8 a ~ 9 6 . 2 1 0 . 3 JAMAICA . . TABLE. IIB GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC" ACTIVITY - AT CONSTANT PRICES (1974) (J$ Mill.) ••Percentage Breakdown 1978 1979 .1980 1970 Âfinual Growth Rate 1980 1978 1979 1980 Agriculture» Forestry and Fishing... . 186.7 166.4 161.5 7,6 Si7 9.2 -10.9 - 2.9 Mining.and Quarrying . 150.4 148.0. 163,3 7.0 8.8 2.6 . - 1.6 10.3 332.9 314.6 275.5 17.6 14.9 - 4.9 - 5.5 -12.4 23.7 23.3 23.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 - 1.7 1.3 Construction ànd Installation 138.3 137.2 95,6 13,2 7.2 3.6 - 0,8 -30.3 Distributive Trade (wholesale and Retail) 313.7 299,2. 279.2. 21.3 15.1 . - 5,1 - 4,6 - 6.7 129,9 125.5 5.5, 6.8 . - 0=5 0,4 - 3.4 91 »6, 9,. 9-5 4,0. 5.4 , 0.1 - 6.2 8,6 Manufacturing s Electricity and Water . Transport, Storage and Communication^ . ,129,4... Financing ..and. Insurance Services. .. 97.7. Real Estate and Business Services 210,4 , 216.0 215,4 9,8 11.7 - 2,9 2,7 - 0,3 Producers of Government Services 344. 1 366.7 352,4 9,0 19.6 4,3 6,6 - 1,2 Miscellaneous Services 101.0 96.5 95.0 5,4 5,1 21.7 68.0 19.0 55.0 18-. 2 66.7 1.4 2« 6 1.0 3.6 -24,9 100,0 100.0 0.3 Household and Private Non-Profit Institutions Less Imputed Service Charges Total 1,982.0 Source: 1,953.4 : 1,848.0 National Income and Product, 1980. 0,1 . r 4,5 . « « * Department of Statistics, Jamaica, 1.6 -12,4 -19.1 - 4.2 21.3 - 1.4 - 5.4 > -21- > JAMAICA TABLE IIC > EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Current Purchasers' Value) (J$ Mill.) 1977r 1978r 1979r 1980p 2 ,672.6 3 ,145.0 3 ,581.5 4,165. 7 2 ,060.2 2 ,395.1 2 ,735.2 3,174.0 612.4 749. 9 846.3 991. 7 349.4 502. 1 724.6 698. 9 24.0 52. 2 50.5 45.5 Exports of Goods and Services 914.4 1 ,579.5 2 ,065.0 2,348. 5 LESS 971. 8 1 ,525.2 2 ,132.6 2,527. 7 2 ,988.6 3 ,753.6 4 ,289.0 4,730. 9 Item Final Consumption Expenditure > a) Private b) Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation Increases in Stocks > Imports of Goods and Services Gross Domestic Product (GDP) > Source: > > National Income and Product, 1980. Department of Statistics, Jamaica. JAMAICATABLE III PRODUCTION OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL ITEMS Annual Growth Rates P 1980P Sugar-cane (milled) 1/ Bananas — 2/ Citrus — 1977 1978 1979 1980 1978 1979 3,252 3,641 2,965 2,744 12.0 -18.6 - 7.4 '000 MT. 80 75 69 33 - 6.3 - 8.0 52.2 '000 MT. . Cona&i^^dl^^.: 63 69 50 5. -27.5 32.0 Units '000 MT . Pimento '000 MT.. 2,022 2,585 1,255 943 27.8 -51.5 -24.9 Copra '000 MT 3,090. 1,927 1,835 1,577 -37.6 - 4.8 -14.1 Cocoa '000 MT 4,502 4,493 3,416 4,379 - 0,2 -24.0 28.2 Coffee '000 MT 1,208. l,504r 2,267 1,310 24.5 50.7 -42.2 Cattle Slaughtered. '000 heads 64.4 -14,5 0.5 11.0 Hqgs Slaughtered . '000 ..heads... . 130,8 . . 1 123, - 3.4 -13.1 12.2 Poultry Meat.. '000- MT 29.8 2.3 3,6 - 6.3 Eggs Million 3,3 - 4.5 -32.0 67.5 30.2. . 152 57.7 126.3 30.7 157 58,0 109.7 . 31,8 150 102 1/ Export only. 2/ Statistics for-Oranges and Grapefruits only. Source; Production Statistics, 1980, and data supplied CEPAL. Department of Statistics, Jamaica JAMAICA TABLE IV PRODUCTION IN MINING AND REFINING Annual Growth Rate Commodi ties 1980P 1977 Bauxite (mined) '000 MT 11,434 r 1979 Ì9801 11,505 ll,736r 197-8 12,053 2.6 - 2.0 4„8 1978 r Alumina '000 MT 2,049 2,116 2,096 2,458 3.3 - 0.9 17.3 Gypsum (Mined) '000 MT 209 135 66 95 -35.4 -51.1 43.9 Fuel Oil Mill. L 378.0 364,1 530.8 403,2 - 3.7 45,8 -24,0 Diesel Oil Mill. L 286.5 296.7 310.7 232.9 3.6 4.7 -25.0 Gasolene Mill. L 298.4 293.5 277 M 229.3 - 1.6 - 5.6 -17.3 -Kerosene/Turbo/ Jet Fuel Mill. L 130.1 168'. 2 194.7 163.5 29.3 15,8 -16.0 Asphalt, Propane and Butane Mill. L 62.3 50.7 57.9 50.3 -18.6 14.2 -13.1 Petroleum Products: Source; Production Statistics, 1980. Department of Statistics, Jamaica. JAMAICA TABLE V INDICATORS OF MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Annual Growth Rate Units I. 1977 1978 p 1978 1979 1980p - 231.8 - 1.3 - 2,9 -18.1 48.8 1979 - 9.8 -22.2 29.1 1980 GOODS PRODUCED 1/ Sugar '000 MT 295.2 291.5 283.1 r Flour (Wheat) '000 MT - 53.9 48.6 37.8 Animal Feed '000 MT 198.0 210,7 203.4 204.3 6.4 - 3.5 0.4 Rum and Alcohol Mill. L 17.7 16.8 18,0 20,5 - 5.1 7,1 13.9 Paints" ' dob"' L" 17.7 4.9 -32.8 4,683 5,513 21.3r Fertilizers '000 MT Petroleum Products Mill. L 1,155.3 Textile Fabrics '000 M 8,018.4 Cement '000 MT Steel II. III. '000 MT' ELECTRICITY SALES TO INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE BY PUBLIC UTILITIES Mill. kWh EMPLOYMENT - '000 29.5 5,782 r -.3,887 30.8 28.6 38.5 4.4 - 7.1 1,173.2 1,371.3 1,079.3 1.5 16.9 -21.3 9,330 5,943.6 " ; 552.8 4, 16.4 -36.3 -23.4 " -11.9 -23.2 -35.9 293.6 225.4 14,2 9.9 9.4- 37.9 -30.3 - 5.1 634.6 634,7 588.3 568.3: 0.0 - 7.3 - 3.4 76.3 79.0 73,8 76,7 3.5 - 6.6 3.9 333.1 10.3 r 1/ Data relate to production of large manufacturing enterprises, 2/ 144.5 Average of April and October data April and November in 1980 from Report on the Labour Force, Department of Statistics, Jamaica, Source: Production Statistics, 1980. Department of Statistics; Statistical Digest, June 1981. Research Department, Bank of Jamaica. JAMAICA TABLE VI SELECTED INDICATORS OF CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY: 1977-1980 Annual Growth Rates Unit 1977 Construction GDP Constant (1974) prices Employment $ Mill '000 133.5 33.0 Imports óf Construction Materials $ Mill 70.3 1978 .1979 1980P 1978 1979 1980P 138,3 32.9 137. 2 31.9 95,6 25.4 3.6 - 0.3 - 0.8 - 3.0 -30.3 -20,4 r 111.0 112. 6 84.1 57.9 1,4 -25.3 Production of Selected Building Materials: Cement '000 MT Paint '000 L Steel '000 MT Bagasse Board '000 m 333 4,683 2 10,3 r 329 225 294 r 5,513 14.2 56 144 -11.7 -23,5 -36.0 5,782 3,887 17.7 4,9 -32,8 37,9 --30,3 - 5,1 -83.0 894.6 9.4 9,9 557 - < 0 9 J Loans and Advances Outstanding to . Commercial Banks — $ Mill 109. 3 127,8 125. 0 127.3 16.9 - 2.2 1,5 New Mortgage Loans of Building Societies $ Mill 24. 9 43.7 46. .7 60.8 75,5 6.9 30.2 jL/ I U n I to Construction, land acquisition and development at end of period. Source;. Production Statistics;, 1979 and 1980= Department of Statistics, Jamaica; Economic and Social Survey, .1.980, National Planning Agency, Jamaica and Statistical Digest, June 1981, Bank oi Jamaica, Jamaica, JAMAICA.. TABLE VII SELECTED TOURISM STATISTICS Annual Growth Rates 1977 1978 1979 1980p Number of Rooms (units) 11,044 .10,538 10,466 Number of Beds (units) 22,438 20,818 20,877 Total Visitors — 000) Long „ Stay .—. ( ' 000) . Short. Stay ^('QOQ) Others -^('000) Hotel Room Occupancy Raté Average (%) Direct Employment - Hotels, Guest Houses-and. Cottages (units) Outstanding ..Loans ~ and. Advances owing --Commercial Banks end,, of--period "(j$ Miïi) : • • JL/ 1979 1980P 10,092 - 4.6 - 0.7 - 3.6 20,128 - 6.8 0,3 - 3.6 386.5 532.9 593.%. 543.1 37.9 11.4 - 8.5 254.6 369.8 400.5 384.5 45.3 8.3 - 4.0 10.5 12.0 26.1 10.8 14,3 117.5 -58.6 121.4r 151.0r 167.0 147.7 24.4 10.6 -11.6 28.9r 40.0r 48.0 44.2 38.4 20.0 - 7.9 8.7 8.5 3.5 15.9 .104,5 148.2 31,1 24.4 Average Length of Stay (nights) Estimated Expenditure —^(US$.Mill) 1978 8 j 421 10,7 8.8 - 194.3 10,296r .. .11,707 . 25.8 35.6 10.2 241,7 2.34 1 , a 9,527.. . 22,3 . 60,3 141.1 - 1 3 , 7 38.0 - 1 8 ; 6 69.4 Excludes nationals resting abroad - a large % of arrivals. Long stay 3 or more nights; "Others" include cruise ship passengers and members of the armed forces; "Short stay" - 1 or 2 nights. 2/. Jamaica Tourist Board Estimates * Source: -Economic-and Social Survey, 1979 and 1980, National Planning. Agency, Jamaica and Statistical Digest., February 1981 J kec earch Department, Bank of: Jamaica and data supplied CEPAL. -27- JAMAICA TABLE VIII DOMESTIC EXPORTS (F.O.B.) BY S1TC SECTIONS (J$ Mill.) 1978 1980P SITC Sections 1977 0 Food 114.6 165.2 193.7 1. Beverages and Tobacco 25.7 30.7 47.2 2. Crude Materials 485.2 840.1 1,034,7 1,318.9 3. Mineral Fuels, etc. 15.8 27.2 56„4 32.0 4. Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats. 0.2 0.2 0.5 0o 2 5. Chemicals 14.5 20.7 29.6 26.7 6. Manufactured Goods 11.9 18.2 27.5 25.1 7. Machinery and Transport Equipment 4.2 6.9 11.6 10 o 8 12.5 18,1 29.6 35,1 0.2 0.2 1,127.5 1,430.9 8. Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 9. Other Goods, n.e.s. TOTAL: N.B.: Source: - 684.7 1979 177.3 52. 7 0, 2 1,679,0 Currency devaluations occurred during 1977-1979. External Trade, 1978 and 1980, Department of Statistics, Jamaica, JAMAICA.. ...,,..., . , TABLE IX . .. IMPORTS BY ECONOMIC FUNCTION OR END USE: 1977-1980 Value (J$ Mill.) : BreaSown 6 Annual Growth Rate 1970 1978 Category 1977 1978 1979 1980 1980 1979 1980 100. 0 184. 8 211» 6 234. 9 30. 0 11. ,2 84.8 14. 5 11, ,0 Food 52. 3 105 o 8 114. 9- 129,5 12. 3 .2 6, 102. 3 8. 6 12, ,7 Other Non-Durables 24. 7 40. 6 45.4 57, 0 9,0 2, ,7 64.4 12. 0 25, ,6 Durables 23. 0 38. 4 51. 3 48. 4 8. 7 2. ,7 67. 0 33.5 - 5, ,7 54, 5 . ,. 48, 5 . 29 .. CONSUMER GOODS RAW MATERIALS. 510. 0 ?..,,. l.,-169, 'h 1,510.. - 4 31,9 . • ,72. a . ; 223. 2 300.0 579.5 807.5 6,4 38, ,5 34.4 93.2 ,3 39. 286.8 487. 9 590. 2 . . . 702. 9 25.6 ,5 33, 70.1 21. 0 ,1 19, 171. 6 287. 3 373. 1 353. 4 37. 3 16, ,8 67,4- 29. 8 - 5. ,3 Construction Material 70,3 110. 9 105, 6 • 84. 1 7,1 4, ,0 57. $ 4q 8 -20, ,4 Transport Equipment 15. 3 31,1 96.6 62.0 4,6 3. ,0 103, 3 210. 7 ,8 -35, Other Machinery and Equipment 72.6 120. 8 159.9 187. 4 25.4 8, ,9 66.,4 32, 4 ,2 17, Other Capital- 13,4 19. 8 0. 8 0, . ,9 82,8 - 55.5 81. .7 2,098. 7 100. 0 39. 2 .6 19, Fuel Other Raw Materials CAPITAL GOODS. TOTAL: . 781. 6 24.5 . .. 1,260. 0 10. 9 r 1,754, 4 100. ,0. . 61.2. - • - Source:• Economic.and Social Survey, 1978 and 1980. National Planning-Agency, Jamaica. -29- JAMAICA TABLE X SELECTED EMPLOYMENT DATA Unit 1977 1978 1979 1980 '000 910 ,0 = 939. ,0 ,6 953, ,2 991, % 75, .8 75. ,5 72, ,3 72. ,7 '000 ,8 689. 708. .5 ,0 689, 720, ,4 Agriculture '000 244. ,0 257, ,0 232. ,0 263.5 Manufacturing '000 .7, . 6.3 Construction '000 33, .0 Commerce '000 Public Administration Labour Force Employed.-.às % of Labour Force Employed Of which: Unemployed as % of Labour Force Note: , 76. 7 32, .9 ,9 31. 25, /,V » 88. .4 ,2 93, 90, ,0 ,2 91, '000 111. >3 108. .8 110, .1 , 108, 7 '000 Unemployed 73, 8 . ,2 220. 230, ,5 264, 6 . 270 8 24.2 24.5 27.7 27.3 7.9 .0 Annual-data.are averages of April and October, excepr. 1980. / average . . f .April.and. .November) . .o Source: The Labour Force, 1979 and 1980. Department of Statistics, Jamaica, and data supplied CEPAL, I > JAMAICA - TABLE XI BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: 1977-1980 (US$ Mill.) 1977r 1978r 1979r 1980P 83. 9 44.5 67.9 - 78.2 Exports (f.o.b.) 750. 6 794.5 814.7 961.0 Imports (f.o.b,) 666, 7 750,0 882.6 1,039.2 ; -138,5 -156,9 -154.7 •-194,0 MERCHANDISE (Net) SERVICES (Net) 20.0 25!. 7 80.0 90.8 15. 1 15 i 2 . 70.0 81,8 4,9 10,5 10,0 9.0 - 34.6 - 86.7 -142,6 -181„4 10,0 10.0 NËÏ TRANSFER PAYMENTS Private Government BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT ALLOCATION OF SDR's NET CAPITAL MOVEMENT 56. 9 Official TOTAL SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) Net International reserves Foreign Exchange SDR's ; Change::- in • Reserves -.(imereaseReserve ..position in IMFGovernment Capital Development Fund Export Development Fund Bank, of Jamaica Other Banks Net Errors and Omissions' 147.7 -169.1 - 81.6 27.4 5.9 178, 9 71.2 22.3 - - 10.4 62.8 Private 9.8 - 76,9 -153,0 - 33.7 -277.8- -426.0 -452.1 -430,3 -289.4 • li. 64„3 -453,5 6 -211 „ 9 » 15. 7 7.. 5 7j . - « Ì 9 3 C ' .1 o e ~ 4,3 0,5 120.3:' 1.4 14G.9 - 7,5 0.3 - 77,0 7.3 159.7 - 15.3 - 0.6 2.1 - 23.1 8.3 12.7 0.3 8.5 64.5 13.0 0,6 Sourjce: Bank of Jamaica and Economic and Social Survey ! ', i 1980, National Planning Agency, Jamaica. JAMAICA.. TABLE XII MONETARY POSITION (J$ Mill.) Balance at End of 1977 J . Money. 508, > 1978 J L Annual Growth Rates 1979 1980 P ^50, 4 822, ,5 1978 825.8 1979 1980p 8. 3 13.1 32. 7 4.8 26.9 17. 7 Currency Outside Banks 181-,0 172, ,4 218, ,7 257.5 Demand Deposits (adjusted) 32/, ,1 378. 0 . 403, ,8 568.3 15. 6 25.8 40. 7 - Factors of Expansion Foreign Assets (net) - 221,7 - 484,2 - 793,9 - 776.3 -118.4 -64,0 2.2 Domestic Credit (net) ... ' x ^ ' / v - H ^ M - •' Government (including official entities) Private sector 1,680.8 2,139.2 2,552,2 3,249.6 27.3 19,3 27.3 744.4 1,021.9 1,249,9 1,693.5 37.3 22.3 35.5 936.4 1,117.3 1,302.3 1,556.1 19.3 16,6 19.5 687,9 864,2 953,0 1,301.7 25,6 10,3 36.6 Factors of Absorption Quasi-money (Savings time deposits) and Bonds Long-term Foreign Borrowing. Other Items (net) N.B.: Data relate to the banking system, Central Goxrerrjnenc, Official Institutions, Jamaica Mortgage Bank, Jamaica Development Bank, merchdtir banks and trust companies, Foreign Assets (net) = Foreign Asssets held by the banking i-ys^em, Central Government, Official • institutions, merchant banks £iic trust companies' less shorc-tena foreign liabilities of the banking system, merchant banks and trust complies» Source; Statistical Digest, Table 1, May 1981. Research Department, Bank of Jamaica. JAMAICA.. TABLE XIII SELECTED MONETARY STATISTICS (J$ Mill.) As at end of Period Annual Rate of Change 1980P 1977 1978 1979 Loans and Advances Outstanding Of which: 658.7 767.6 900.9 1,088.1 Agriculture Manufacturing-.. Construction and land development Central and local government Personal Distribution. 88.9 . 118.9 81.9 132.8 93.1 154.1 117.8 213.9 127.8 27.8 119.4 80.7 . . 125.0 28.5 167.6 80.4 1978 1979 1980P COMMERCIAL BANKS 109.3 28.4 117.0 71.3 17,4 20.8 - 7.9 11.7 13.7 16.0 26.5 38.8 127.3 23.5 188.0 89,6 16.9 - 2.1 2.1 13.2 - 2.2 2.5 40.4 - 0.4 1.8 -17.5 12", 2 11.4 128,3 18.9 1,6 17.8 357,8 27.4 .. 12.5 0,3 0.0. 0,0 18.2 1.9 75,2 Net excess liquidity — 90.2 107.2 108,9 Holdings of Central government securities 249.0 317.2 356.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 13,0 406.7 506.2 515.9. 904,1 24,5 INSTALMENT - CREDIT OUTSTANDING •, 104.7 123.3 146.9 - - 175,8 17,8- - 19.1 19.7 INSTALMENT - CREDIT NEW-BUSINESS , 103.8 128,2 173,5 190,0 23.5. 35,3 9,5 Prime lending rates (%), • 16.5 . -- CENTRAL BANK Holdings of Central government securities \j Average liquidity less-the sum of required-minimimijliquidity-and-loans . from. Central Banks. —-Source;..Statistical.Digest:-May-1981». Researeh Department, Bank of Jamaica. -33- JAMAICA TABLE XIV-A CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (J$ Mill.) 1977-1978 RECURRENT REVENUE Tax Revenue Of which: Income Land and Property Consumption Customs Non-tax Revenue RECURRENT EXPENDITURE 1978-1979 529.1 - 777.2 487.4 750.4 193.9 23.8 131.5 30.3 281.2 25.0 262.0 49.0 41.7 2/ 26.7 838.9 - 1,163.7 Economic. Services 119.2 146.9 Public Debt and Fiscal Services 151.5 241.7 Other 568.2 3/ 775.1 Current surplus (+) or Deficit (-) CAPITAL REVENUE CAPTIAL .EXPENDITURE.. 17.3. 3/ 403.1 - Economic Services 223.3 Public Debt and Fiscal Services . 68.6 Other 111.2 CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT.FUND TRANSFERS 110.0 .TOTAL RECEIPTS 656.4 TOTAL EXPENDITURE - -309.8 1,242.0 386.5 3.8,2/ 3/ 662.6 351.0 171.5 140.1 268.0 1,049.0 1,826.3 -34- TABLE XIV-A (CONT'D) CENTRAL GOVERNMENT-REVENUE»AND EXPENDITURE (J$ Mill.). 1977-1978r FISCAL SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) 1978-1979r - - 585.6 777.3 FINANCING OF DEFICIT.. Of which: 4/ Domestic Financing - ¿y 391,5 External Financing — ' 143.6 (External Financing in US$ Mill.) (67.3) N.B.: ( 457.9 770.9 336.0) Fiscal year covers the period April to March and Expenditure figures exclude "appropriations-in-aid". 1/ Actual accounts. _2/ Consolidated fund receipts. 3J Preliminary out-turn. 4/ Change in Gross Internal and External debt outstanding. Converted, at .rates, of. exchange. prevaULing . . _ end .of at each period. Source: 1977-1978 19.79-1980--'Economic and Social-Survey, 1979. National Planning Agency, . Jamaica; . 1980-198.1 Financial Statements and Revenue Estimates for 1980-1981, Ministry of Finance and Planning, 19 May 1980, Jamaica; and April-December figures supplied to CEPAL. -35- JAMAICA TABLE XIV-B SUMMARY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE'AND EXPENDITURE (J$ Mill.) 1979-1980 Actual Expenditure (Provisional) TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1980-1981 Revised , Estimates —' 1,778.3 1 ,639.6 775.5 1,068.2' TOTAL REVENUE 2 ,415.1 1,239.4 538.8 2/ Recurrent Expenditure — Capital Expenditure 2/ 1 ,375 o 2 834.2 782.4 51.8 1.5 232.5 Foreign Local non-bank and Commercial Bank Bank of Jamaica Advance TREASURY BILLS NET RECEIPTS 3/ OTHER - 970.9 232.8 195. 7 382.5 LOANS 964.8 923.6 41.2 180.4 230.0 811,0 Recurrent Revenue Tax Revenue Non-tax Revenue Capital Revenue Transfers from. Capital Development Fund 319; 9 250-0 401.0 5.2 0,04 9.2 63.7 - CURRENT SURPLUS (+)/DEFICIT (-) - 405.2 - OVERALL SURPLUS (+)/DEFICIT (-) - 702.4 ,039,9 -1. 1/ Consolidated Fund Statement. 2/ Net of Appropr1ations-in-Aid. 3/ Includes Oyer issues and.Cash Balances Brought from previous year. 4/ 674.8 Excludes Oyer issues. Source: Economic and Social Survey, 1980. Agency, Kingston, Jamaica. National Planning -36JAMAICA TABLE XV CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY 1975 = 100) Group r % Weight • 1977" "197'8 1979r 1980^ ANNUAL. AVERAGES TOTAL Food and drink Fuels and.other. household supplies Housing Household furnishings including furniture „.Clothing and Accessories Personal Expenses Transportation Miscellaneous Expenses 100.00 130.2 175.6 226.7 288.2 53.28 129.2 176.7 235,8 314.5 ! 1 * • 5.13 8.87 121.5. 168.9 127.4 141.7 245.9 165.6 345.2 .184.6 3.18 139.3 .215.7 273.3 324.0 8.15 8.43 4.86 8.10 127.2 122.7 120.8 157.4 178.5 167.4 193.7 189.5 225.0 209.9 244.7 211.3 269.9 255.0 276.3 257.4 ANNUAL AVERAGE CHANGE % TOTAL Food and Drink Fuels and Other.HouseholdSupplies . . Housing—Household-Furnishings-.. including.-Furniture. Clothing and Accessories Personal Expenses Transportation Miscellaneous Expenses 1.:... 11.2 9.4 8.1 5.3 29.1 34.9 36.8 . 33.4 391*0 11; 2 14.9 ..54.8 40.3 9.7 36.4 9.5 60,3 13.3 20.4 30.2 27.1 33.4 .45.6 .40.4 . 11.5 16.9 . 26.7 .18.6 20.0 25.4 21.5 25.9 26.3 12.9 21.8 11.5 % CHANGE DECEMBER-DECEMBER TOTAL Food and Drink Fuels and Other Household Supplies Housing Household Furnishings including... Furniture Clothing, and.. Accessories Personal Expenses Transportation Miscellaneous Expenses 14.1 12.3 4,9.4 54.1 19.8 24.5 28.6 33.7 12.6 3.3 60.4 17.1 3.1.4 17.7 36.0 7.3 25.6 14.2 11.7 12.5 35.4 65.8 52.4 52.7 85.3 19.7 12.6 15.6 9.7 7.5 7.9 23.5 25.5 32.5 12.3 16.2 Source: Consumer Price Indices, Annual Review 1980, Department of Statistics, Jamaica. JAMAICA TABLE XVI SELECTED PETROLEUM DATA Year Average Price Per Barrel Crude Oil US$ Petroleum Imports (million barrels) Cost of Petroleum Imports — Tf,v— T'sr J$M US?M Ratio Oil Imports; Total Exports Ratio Oil Imports: Total Imports 1972 2.91 16.1 44 57.3 14.7 9.0 1973 3 .77 20.3 65 71.5 18,3 10.6 1974 10.45 18.5 177 194.7 27.6 20.8 1975 11.29 17.5 196 208,2 25,3 19.2 1976 11.77 15.6 185 200.4 32.2 22.3 1977 13.33 16.4 223 219.6 32,5 28.5 1978 •13.51 16,3 320 208,8 26,7 24,1 1979 18.87 16.6 523 - 286,8 35,2 28.6 1980 30.37 15.6 761 418.0 43.5 35.6 Source:. Economic-and-Soclal.Survey,-1979 and ^1980. National Planning Agency, Jamaica. PART X MONTSERRAT COUNTRY NOTES i i ( i i ( < < i ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 MQNTSERRAT~~ 2. (East Caribbean dollars used throughout)— An upsurge in economic activity brought on by the establishment of an American medical school on the island, a drive towards further industrialization and a Government policy geared towards a more productive Agricultural sector resulted in an estimated 6.5 percent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current factor cost in 1980, despite the lack of official statistics to support the assertion. A CEPAL estimate puts the GDP figure at some $27.6 million in 1980. In 1980, Government policy continued to encourage activity in Agriculture, Industry and Tourism, and continued to encourage the vertical integration of industry, especially in cotton and some food processing. Because of the switch to local processing of agricultural produce, the export Agricultural sector did not procure foreign exchange earnings of the magnitude of previous years. Government's direct involvement in the Industrial sector created in 1980 over 110 new jobs. 1981. The prognosis is that even more jobs will be created in The purchase by Government of a new aircraft, and the pro- vision of night landing facilities gave expression to Government's intention to develop tourism. Further investment on the part of both the public and the private sector is needed if the programmes as outlined by the tourist board ar§ to become effective and increase the tourist expenditure on the island to beyond the estimated $11.6 million of 1980. An estimated $2.6 million in personal income tax receipts in 1980 represented a 32 percent increase in Government tax takings over the previous year. This was largely because of higher incomes and a greater number of employees entering the tax net. An increase in the Customs Service tax from 1 percent to 4 percent of the value of all 1/ Prior to this report, Montserrat's country notes were subsumed in the notes for the West Indies Associated States. 2/ US$1.00 = EC$2.70. imported items brought the tax taxings on this item to soipe $1.5 million. Funding for several major public works projects came from external sources such as the European Development Fund, United Kingdom grants, the Canadian International Development Agency, and the Caribbean Development Bank. The increased economic activity was accompanied by an estimated increase of some 10 percent in the money supply in 1980. The rate of inflation as measured by the Retail Price Index (annual average) increased by 29.8 percent in 1980. Agriculture Montserrat's Agricultural sector revolved around the cultivation of sea island cotton, and the production of vegetables, some of which are exported under the Agricultural Marketing Protocol of CARICOM. The real problems as faced by the farmers include poor port facilitation which results in tremendous losses to farmers. The system of land tenure under which many farmers rent the lands that they cultivate, discourages agriculture in long-term crops and fruit orchards. Government policy is oriented towards the purchase of estates which are rented out on a short-term basis. These estates are subdivided into parcels of 5-25 acres and leased to farmers for a period of 25 years. planting of long-term crops. This policy is expected to encourage the Recently, interest in the revival of the lime industry on a large scale for export, has been registered. At present also, Government has been fostering the planting and cultivation of mangoes, citrus and avocado. The severity of the dry season has in the past served as a drawback to agricultural production. Government has sought to construct dams with external assistance, but in many parts of the island soil conditions dictate the need for lined dams. The results of government's efforts at improving the supply of irrigation water will be measurable only after a "normal" dry season is again experienced. Training, research and extension activities in agriculture have intensified with a view to promoting the Agricultural sector as a major engine of economic growth. Three regional projects in agriculture operated in the island in 1980, all aimed at improving crop yields and the quality of life of the small farmer. The problem of erosion has been attacked with a project to establish tree cover over some 50 acres of land in the north of the island. The species planted include timber, ornamental trees and trees which will provide•food for wildlife. The export Agricultural sector did not register an excellent performance in 1980 because of poor port facilitation and partly because of the shift towards agro-based industries locally. Much economic activity centred around the cotton industry and the manufacturing of pepper sauce, thus resulting in downward shifts in foreign exchange earnings of these two commodities. Cotton Having declined over fairly recent years, the acreage under cotton fell to as low as 10 acres in 1976/77. The crop ceased to be an "estate crop" in the late 1950's, and small farmers grew whatever little cotton was left, on an acreage vastly reduced from the 1,20Q acres of the mid-1950's. Later attempts to revive the industry saw private sector funding channelled through the Ministry of Agriculture for this purpose, but factors such as pricing, weather conditions, low fertility of the soil, and comparatively high costs of production led to further decline. Within the last three years, spinning equip- ment was introduced into Montserrat, and in 1979, spinning became a facet of economic activity in the island. Weaving on hand looms was later introduced, and personnel are being trained in the art. After the success of a pilot cotton production scheme managed by the Land Development Authority in 1980, and after the success of the experimental weaving and spinning project, Government undertook to grow 150 acres in 1980. Of the entire acreage earmarked, about 130 acres of land were actually cleared and planted for the 1980/81 cotton crop. The future of the revived industry looks bright, as can be seen from performance and. employment generated. The output of the 1979/80 crop was some 20,000 lbs, of which some 13,000 lbs were produced by the Government pilot project. farmers. The remaining 7,000 lbs were produced by small In 1979/80, the labour employed on the pilot project was of the order of' 20 persons. Employment for the 1980/81 crop was of the order of 150 persons for field operations, and some 24 persons at the spinning and weaving stages. At present a stock of 120 looms exceeds skilled labour to operate them. Expansion in spinning is planned, and plans are to expand the acreage to the targetted 150 acres, necessitating a further 20 persons for field operations. Completely vertical integration of the industry is planned, as final products are expected to be tablecloths and selected items of outerwear. Regional and extra-regional markets are expected to be serviced by these products. Much of the activity in weaving and training has been facilitated by CIDA funding. The spinning aspect of the operation has been funded by the British Development Division, while funding for the integrated project has been provided by the Caribbean Development Bank. In order to ensure adequate supplies of raw material, Government more than doubled the purchasing price of seed cotton to $1.75 per lb. Govern- ment plans also to grow some 200 acres of cotton through the Land Development Authority, both to ensure an adequate supply of raw material and to give practical demonstration of the benefits to be derived by farmers from improved cultural practices. Hot peppers Hot peppers continue to be a major cash crop. land under the crop. There are some 60 acres of The production of peppers suffered a serious setback in 1979 as a result of hurricane "David", which occasioned the loss of some 35 percent of plants and an estimated corresponding reduction in output. Production recovered in 1980, but the emphasis has been to increase the local value-added by crushing the peppers locally and exporting the higher-priced semi-processed pepper. Other Agriculture Not very much activity in other agriculture is evidenced. three or four poultry farms that produce in the main, egg^. There are some The high cost of poultry feed has been cited as the main reason for low activity in the area of > - 5 - > production of poultry meat. Much the same situation occurs with pigs. Government is improving the strain of sheep by selectively importing certain species with a larger meat yield. ^ The absence of official National Accounts estimates ifcakes it impossible to quantify the net effect of economic activity in the sector9 but indications are that the net effect of natural disasters, price increases and other factors has been to increase GDP at factor ^ cost in Agriculture to an unofficial estimate of some $1.6 million in 1980. Activity in agriculture iu 1980 reflected the implementation of Government policy as enunciated in the Government's Development Plan, the objectives of which were: to develop and implement a strategy for the conservation of natural resources; to replace imports and achieve self-sufficiency in a wide range of food products; ^ to create a community of commercially-minded farmers and settling them on viable farming units; to upgrade nutritional standards and \ - generate employment; to produce raw materials for the expansion of agro-industry. Manufacturing Government continued in 1980 to concentrate its efforts on the ^ promotion of industrial development. Through the Montserrat Industrial Enterprises Limited (M.I.E.L.), government has committed considerable resources to direct involvement in some ventures, especially those that are based on local resources. ^ Some of these include the ginning, spinning and weaving of Sea Island Cotton, pepper processing, pottery, leathercraft and the tanning of hides and skins. The moves to achieve vertical integration in cotton have progressed with the obtention of a loan of some $1.7 million from the Caribbean Development Bank. ( Govern- ment has further taken a 30 percent shareholding in a company formed by a Canadian group for the production of knitted clothing. Current work in peppers is aimed at producing substantial amounts i - 6of finished pepper sauce for export by the end of 1981. A joint-venture bag-making project has contributed significantly to the export earnings of the island. In 1980, estimated value of exports of plastic bags grew by 192.4 percent to some $143,000. Most of these exports were to CARICOM countries. A joint venture in the manufacture of outer garments promises to contribute much by way of employment and export earnings as great expansion in operations is envisaged in 1981. Industrial production statistics have not in the past been compiled. In 1980, a survey of business establishments wa§ conducted with a view to determining the extent and kind of economic activity taking place, as well as a quantification of production. in industry. Table IV gives some idea of economic activity Table 1 below supplements. Table 1 Selected -Exports by Commodity"- 1979 and 1980 ($'000) - Commodity 1979 1980 Manufactured sand 20.8 - Gravel 12.0 - Plastic Bags 48.9 Rayon ribbon bows .4 Electric machinery,etc. T - Shirts ' 14.1 ; Polythene bags Source: 335.3 - 143.3 - 351.5 2.8 580.7 Data supplied CEPAL. In 1980, Government policy in the area of industrial development was concentrated on the promotion and fostering of industrial activity locally. > - 7 Government's direct involvement in the Industrial Sector created in 1980 ovqr 110 new jobs. expected in 1981. > Even greater employment generation is Much of the output of the Manufacturing sector went to the CARICOM market. Tourism A significant number of retirees from North America and Europe have constructed homes in Montserrat where they reside either ^ permanently or for part of the year. Much construction has therefore resulted from this type of tourist activity. While this type of tourism is likely to continue, there exists the potential to diversify into the more conventional type of tourism. ^ Promotional and Marketing activities designed to increase tourist traffic have been embarked on. By way of facilitation of tourism to the island, a Montserrat desk was established at Coolidge airport in Antigua, and a twin-engined Otter has replaced the previous aircraft. ' Night landing capabilities have been added to the runway, Government is examining the possibility of expanding the routes of its aircraft, and day tours are being planned. Because of limited air links, mass tourism in Montserrat cannot be pursued. ' Promotion is therefore aimed at a very small portion of the total tourist market. In order to accommodate tourism, a certain minimum infrastructure must be put into place, including the provision of conference facilities to accommodate international meetings. Optimally, both Government and the private sector should come together 1 in the provision of these facilities. Indications are that the Tourist Board is in need of financial backing for its tourist site development ideas. Due emphasis should therefore be attached to the importance of investing in adequate tourism infrastructure. I The number of passenger arrivals as well as the annual rate of increase of their arrivals rose steadily from 1977, from a figure of 19,025 in 1977 to 25,681'in 1980. ^ The general trend in arrivals of cruise-ship visitors was an upward one, although a decrease in arrivals was noted in 1979. Other indicators such as the number of hotel and guest-house beds and employment in hotels showed no signs of net increase i - 8over the last three years. I Of the tourists arriving in Montserrat in 1980, some 51 percent were , holiday visitors, 23 percent were business visitors and 24 pefcent were day j excursionists. Of the hotel visitors, some 12 percent stayed in hotels or guest-houses, 5 percent rented apartments or villas, and about 34 percent stayed in private homes. About 80 percent of business visitors stayed at hotels or guest-houses. Table 2 below provides some idea of the "direction of trade" in the sector. Table 2 Visitor Arrivals from Selected Countries - 1979 and 1980 Country of Origin 1979 1980 United States of America 7,073 8,657 Canada 1,838 1,815 United Kingdom 1,469 1,651 Caribbean 4,807 5,212 Source : Data supplied CEPAL. The arrival of some 1,542 medical students to attend the American University of the Caribbean has exerted an upward influence on tourist expenditure which was estimated in 1980 to have been of the order of $11.6 million. FISCAL AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS An observed $1.9 million surplus on Government's current account in 1980 was the result of an upsurge in economic activity in the country. Whereas no amendments to the personal income tax structure were made, higher incomes and a greater number of PAYE employees resulted in higher tax takings on the part of Government. A 1980 Personal Income tax receipts estimate is put at $2.6 million - a 32 percent increase over the previous year's figure of $2.0 million. New sources of revenue were procured in 1980. The students' levy attached to students of the medi^ax school was estimated to have amounted to close to $0.5 million. In 1980, a Customs Service tax of 4 percent on the value of all imported items replaced the previous 1 percent tax. This service tax was levied on all imported items regardless of their duty exempt status. This tax was of the order of $1.5 million in 1980 - outstripping the forward looking estimate of $1.1 million for the same year. The offshore medical presence on the island has exerted some upward pressure on the Retail Price Index in the area of rents, and on the general price level of goods and services whose increase in demand was not met by a pari passu increase in production. At the same time several service type and clerical jobs were cleared by the presence of che medical school. The construction industry received a boost from the activity connected with the crection of physical plant attached to the medical school. Several major public worics projects were executed in . 9 0 . In .8, the area of road construction, 14 miles oi first c ^ s the Northern and Eastern parts of the island began. loads xinking Tni?- activity was funded by European Development Fund and U.K. gtawcs- The supply and price of building ¿nateilals varied in accordance with their sporadic delivery due to lace orders and ¿hipping problems. As an incentive to tne construction industry, duties on building materials were removed for a two-year period. In the area of transportation, Government purchased a Twin Otter aircraft in a move to improve the Antigua to Montserrac service, and t o forge new air links with . Montserrat and the rest of the Caribbean, A loan in the sum of $JL.7 million from the Caribbean Development Bank was utilized for the establishment oi the integrated cotton project. In the sheet to medium term, integration of the industry will produce outer garments and other finished products, while in the longer term, bye-products in the form of cattle feed will help improve the efficiency of the livestock sub-sector. i - 10 The Money Supply (as supplied by the East Caribbean Currency Authority) to Montserrat rose by 8.9 percent and 13.5 percent in 1978 and 19 79 respectively. Preliminary office estimates indicate a 10 percent increase in the Total Money Supply in 1980. This variable continued to be positively correlated with economic activity. PRICES AND EMPLOYMENT Price increases originating mainly from trading partner countries as well as domestic events, helped to push the All Items index of retail prices to an average of 272.2 points in 1980 - a 29.8 percent increase over the level of the previous year. Mainly responsible for this increase were increased prices of gas, electricity and water, rents, services and miscellaneous household goods. Retail prices of all petroleum products increased in 1980 in response to the new supply prices of these commodities. An estimated increase of 68.9 percent in the retail price of premium gasolene was noted in February 1980, over the price prevailing a year earlier. In February 1980, the retail price of kerosene stood at $4.35 per imperial gallon - an increase of some 145 percent over the price that obtained in March of the previous year. The growing number of visitors associated with either the new American University of the Caribbean, or with tourism, or with business contributed to the increase in rents as indicated by the index. The increase in the Services index also in part reflects this phenomenon. Concomitant with the expansion of the manufacturing sector has been the 3/ increase in employment.— In March 1980, the number of PAYE taxpayers stood at 2,100 as opposed to 1,620 of a year eailier, while the number of own-account workers rose from 225 in 1979 to 470 in March 1980. While these figures do not make definitive pronouncements on the rate of employment or unemployment because of the absence of a labour force survey, they are useful in that they indicate the direction of the employment variable in the economy. 3/ Figures presented in Budget Speech, March 1980. < - 11 - TRADE AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Because of greater domestic economic activity, exports of goods and non-factor services increased by some 15 percent while the value of imports is estimated to have fallen slightly in 1980- The effect of these two transactions was a slight reduction in the trade deficit from the observed $24,3 million of 1979 to $20,0 million in 1980. The Current Account deficit fell correspondingly fiom $19,8 million in 1979 to $17.6 million in 1980. Major items of domestic export were manufactured goods. The manufacturing sector contributed $1,311,599, or 7¿+.x percent ot the total value of exports in 1980 as compared with $636,110 in 1979. Mainly responsible for the increase in export earnings in 1980 was an increase in production and export of plastic and polythene bags. The increased local demand for agricultural produce that followed an increased tourist presence in 1980, as well as a shift towards agro-industry resulted in lower export earnings of the agricultural sector. A significant increase in exports to CAR1C0M countries was largely explained by an increase in the exports of polythene bags and plastic bags. Tables X, XI, XII and XIII refer. < < i I < ( < I I I I t I STATISTICAL APPENDIX MONTSERRAT 1980 > • i < < < I I I I I » - 12 ~ MONTSERRAT TABLE I MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1977 1978 1979 1980 Gross domestic product at factor cost (current prices) $M 22.2 24.4 25.9* 27.6* Population ('000) (mid-year) 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.5* 1,930 2,159 2,312 BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS Per capita gross domestic product (current prices) 2,400 Annual Growth Races B. SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 9.9 6.1 6.6 11.9 7,1 3.8 -22,5 18.9 Gross domestic product Per capita gross domestic product Domestic Exports 40.7 74.7 Total Imports -9.0 42.2 Consumer Price Index December-December 16.9 11.9 33.6 17.8 Variation between annual averages 17.5 9.4 16.0 29.8 8.9 13.5 21.5 41.5 Money Supply (by ECCA) (M^ Money Supply M x (by ECCA) Source: > > Various tables presented in this Statistical Appendix. - 13 - MONTSERRAT TABLE II GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1977-1980 $ Million (Current factor cost) 1977 1978 Agriculture 1.3 Mining and Quarrying 0.3 0.5 3.2 5,5 Public utilities 0.8 0.9 Transport, communication 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 Wholesale and retail 3.0 3.4 Hotels, Restaurants, Bars 1.7 1.9 Government Services 4.9 5.4 Financing, Insurance 1.6 1. 7 Real Estate 0.8 0.9 Miscellaneous Services 1.0 1.2 13.0 14.5 22.2 24.4 27.6* 3.5 5.3 25.9* 0.5 Construction 1980 0.3 Manufacturing 1979 1.2 Sector Sub-total goods Sub-total basic services Sub-total other services TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Source: Eighth Statistical Digest 1979, Statistics Office, and CEPAL estimates. I i MONTSERRAT TABLE III QUANTITIES OF MAIN CROPS PURCHASED BY THE DFMC^' Items Unit White Potatoes '000 kg M Sweet Potatoes 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1977 1978 1979 1976 1977 1978 1979 222.2 66.9 2.9 3.7 -69.9 -95.6 27.6 5.7 1.7 1.8 3.0 -70.2 5.9 66.7 24.9 41.9 7.4 -28.7 68.3 8.3 -89.2 3.4 -18.8 Tomatoes i t 32.5 34.9 Carrots i l 31.5 3.4 Cabbage M 3.2 2.6 Onions M 45.2 3.5 0.5 5.1 -92.3 -85.7 920.0 Pumpkin l i 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.6 -36.4 -76.2 20.0 Pineapple H 6.8 3.6 1.9 -47.1 Lime t i 13.7 11.8 3.9 -13.9 Mangoes H 2.6 5.5 0.3 111.5 Cucumbers H Lime juice Litres - 984.1 - 2566.2 - - 4.0 - - 454.2 eoo -66.1 -2.5 000 18.1 3974.3 1/ Development Finance and Marketing Corporation 160.8 -82,3 775.0 1980 - 15 ~ MONTSEKRAT TABLE IV VALUE OF MAJOR DOMESTIC EXPORTS £ C ^ Unit = $'000 Commodity 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Tomatoes 39.5 77.3 60.3 57.0 18.2 White potatoes 1 7 1 . 1 26.6 25.1 8.9 Sweet potatoes 2 . 4 16.6 24.0 20.1 1 . 5 6.1 Mangoes 10.6 6.5 3.7 3.6 Carrots 20.3 1 . 5 0.6 8.8 0.5 Other vegetables 35.6 3.1 18.0 19.0 16.9 5.1 8.8 15.5 8.7 8.9 61.9 5,0 8,2 0,2 92.3 357,5 1 3 5 o 4 58.0 0.8 Limes Lime juice Hot peppers Cotton lint » 215.7 1 0 . 0 4 . 1 113.0 - Live plants - - 25.1 157,3 234.0 Plastic bags - - 31.6 48.9 143.0 Polythene bags - - Electronic circuits and parts Cattle TOTAL EXPORTS 574.4 222.2 88.0 31.4 124.3 • » 1,099,2 1 ,921.1 1,488.6 1,770.6 — 1 0 3 . 4 781.5 580.0 - Source : Eighth Statistical Digest 1979, Central Statistics Office. 350.0 MONTSERRAT TABLE V TOURISM Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 1980 19,025 20,125 21,639 25,681 (1,840) (3,819) (3,082) (4,953) Average length of stay in hotels ... ... ... Occupancy rate ... ... ... Number of Hotel and Guest-house beds .., Number of new hotels and guest houses . Total Tourist expenditure ($ million) ... 8,4 ... „, „ Number of cruise ship cal Is ... ,„. ... Number of yachts calling , „„„ ... 125 125 Total number of passenger arrivals 5.7 7.5 18.7 106.5 -19,3 60.7 11.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 237 ... 23.8 11.5 Of which Cruise-ship visitors 237 _ 237 _ 10.4 _ 11=6 ... Of' which stay-over visitors' expenditure Number employed in hotels Source: 100 Eighth Statistical Digest 19?9, and data supplied CEPÀL, 11.4 „. < , * „» 35 ,.. ... 170 »,. .,„ 125 25.0 .*= I - 17 MONTSERRAT ( TABLE VI GOVERNMENT SECTOR TOTAL REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE ($ Mill.) i 1977 1978 1979 1980 Local Recurrent Revenue 7.1 8.0 11.6 15.7 Budgetary Aid 2.0 1.7 0o 8 1.1 TOTAL RECURRENT REVENUE 9.1 9.7 12.4 16,8 TOTAL RECURRENT EXPENDITURE 8.4 9.8 12.2 14,9 Current Account +0.7 "0.1 +0.2 +1.9 Capital Revenue 3.4 1.9 2.5 Capital Expenditure 3.4 2 r5 3.5 - -0.6 -1.0 +0.7 -0.7 -0.8 Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) on Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) on Capital Account Overall Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) Source: Eighth Statistical Digest 1979, Statistics Office. Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure 1981, Ministry of Finance. - MONTSERRAT TABLE VII-A GOVERNMENT SECTOR Revenue ($'000) Details of Revenue 1978 1977 1979 1980 ( ( (2 ,368.0 ( 1,767.4 2,220.9 (2,823.0 1,816.1 2,424.5 Stamp duties and licences 404.0 343.3 425.4 834.5 Fees of court etc. 103.8 82.8 118 o 4 163.4 2 ,639.4 3,066,0 Import Duties Consumption Tax Direct Taxes - TOTAL Of which Personal Income Tax Company Tax 1/ Other Government Revenue— Loan Repayments Project Revenue Grant-in-Aid Retainable Surplus TOTAL REVENUE ( ... ) ( ooo ) 1 ,655 o1 23 » 9 - 1 ,953.2 - 9 ,447.8 ( 4,970.1 7,251.5 (1,705.3) (1,9/>.6) (2,615.1) (314.5) (758.3) 1,417.1 2,305„7 47 ,0 ?8.6 - 1,672.0 - 9,451.5 - 1,300,0 54.3 12,836.0 1/ Includes Revenue from Government Property, Earnings of Government Departments, Interest and Similar Revenue, and Miscellaneous receipts» Source : Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure 1981, and data supplied CEPAL, v 750 0) . 1,810.5 123 o 5 126 » 0 1,068.0 282 o 6 16,305.4 - 19 ~ MONTSERRAT TABLE VII-B GOVERNMENT SECTOR Expenditure ($'000) Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 1977 1978 1979 1980 582 450 557 826 Communication and Works 1,374 1,632 1,877 2,679 18.8 Education, Health and Welfare 3,227 3,353 3,522 5,424 3.9 5 c0 54.0 Administration 282 298 341 545 5.7 14.4 59.8 Chief Minister's Office 218 327 370 632 50 o0 1 3 . 1 7 0 Finance 459 1,060 3,051 1,797 Police 576 603 623 999 4.7 1,686 2,045 1,785 2,887 21.3 8,404 9,768 12,126 15,789 16.2 Main Sector Agriculture, Trade and Housing Other TOTAL RECURRENT EXPENDITURE Source: 23.8 1 3 0 . 9 Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure 1981, and data supplied CEPAL, 48.3 1 5 -22 « 7 42.7 o 0 1 8 7 . 8 3-3 _ - 1 2 c. 7 24.1 c 8 -41.1 60.4 61.7 30 o 2 MONTSERRAT TABLE VIII MONEY SUPPLY /BY ECCA-^ TO M.0NTSERRAT7 - 1977-1980 (Unit $'000) Balance as at end of December Sept. 1980 1977 19 78 1979 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 Money : Currency outside banks 2,376 2,538 2,596 Demand deposits 3,956 5,158 8,297 6,332 7,696 10,893 2,848 2,776 3,238 15,991 16,929 Total Quasi Money 18,839 Total Money Supply (M1 + M2> 25,171 Total (M ) 6.8 2.3 30.4 60.9 21.5 41.5 3,977 -2.5 16.6 22.8 16,981 19,012 5.8 0,3 12.0 19,705 20,219 22,989 4.6 2.6 13.7 27,401 31,112 8.9 13.5 8,641 0 0 0 4.1 Quasi Money: Time deposits Savings deposits 1/ East Caribbean Currency Authority. Source: Eighth Statistical Digest 1979, Statistics Office, and data supplied CEPAL. - 21 ~ MONTSEKKAT TABLE IX RETAIL PRICE INDEX - 1976-1980 (1974 = 100) 1980 140.5 1978 1979 1977 ANNUAL AVERAGES 165.1 180.7 209.7 272.2 401 148.1 170.2 187,3 228.2 282.4 46 140.4 168.0 195.3 226.2 260.7 Miscellaneous household goods 114 148,6 160.4 183.6 210.8 266.2 Gas, electricity and water 120 177.5 245.8 260.9 291.6 444.0 Rent • 211 100.0 102.9 108.7 110.6 153,9 Clothing 51 156.5 218.3 2.44 o 1 306,8 354.2 Other including Services 57 129.1 145.4 156.6 182.7 ANNUAL AVERAGE CHANGE 16.0 9,4 17.5 224.6 Weight TOTAL: All Items Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcohol and Tobacco TOTAL: 1976 1,000 All Items 29,8 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 14.9 10.0 21.9 23,8 Alcohol and Tobacco 19.7 16.3 15.8 15.3 7.9 14:, 5 14,8 26,3 38.5 6.1 11.8 52.3 2.9 5.6 1.7 39.2 39.5 11.8 25,7 15.4 Miscellaneous household goods Gas, electricity and water Rent Clothing Other including Services TOTAL: All Items Food and non-alcoholic beverages A • S 16.7 22.9 12.6 7,7 V Change December -December /o 33.6 17.8 0•• 16.9 11.9 31.5 8.8 25.8 6.6 7.5 21.4 17.9 5.4 44.5 0.0 22.3 21.4 8.7 0.0 3.2 47.7 Rent 10.7 16.4 23.2 31.3 Clothing 13.2 7.0 26.2 8.1 Other including Services 18,7 9.1 24.7 13.0 Alcohol and Tobacco Miscellaneous household goods Gas, electricity and water Source: Eighth Statistical Digest 1979,.Statistics Office, and data supplied CEPAL. - 22 ~ MONTSERRAT TABLE X VALUE OF IMPORTS BY SITC SECTION (c.i.f.) (Unit = $v000) Section Description of Goods 19 76 1977 1978 0 Food 5,191 5,176 Beverages and Tobacco 1,270 1,375 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels 1,301 1,052 1,597 1,326 167 223 ... ... 1,982 158 ... 478 Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials ... 1,845 2 1980 6,237 1 1979 3 4 Animal and vegetable oils and fats 5 Chemicals 1,228 1,244 1,648 6 Manufactured goods, classified chiefly by materials 4,202 3,422 4,789 Machinery and transport equipment 3,689 2,94& 6 ; 653 8 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 2.144 2,211 3,060 9 Miscellaneous transactions and 21 14 12 20,803 18,933 26,927 7 commodities n.e.s. TOTAL Source : Eighth Statistical Digest 1979, Statistics Office. - 23 ~ MONTSERRAT TABLE XI VALUE OF DOMESTICEXPQRTS(f.o.b.) (Unit = $'000) £ £ # Section Description of Goods 1 Beverages and Tobacco 2 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels 3 Chemicals 6 Manufactured goods, classified chiefly by material 257.2 279.2 637.6 4.9 10.1 10.4 22.0 230.9 188.0 258.4 191,0 9.7 7.5 75.6 107.6 42.2 Animal and vegetable oils and fats 5 1979 Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 4 1978 6.6 Food 1977 453.0 0 1976 7 8 9 Machinery and transport equipment 0.8 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 9.0 526.2 Miscellaneous transactions and commodities n.e.s. 0.6 0.4 781.5 1,099,2 TOTAL Source: 32.7 574.4 Eighth Statistical Digest 1979, Statistics Office. 392.« 748.9 210.4 » 1,921.0 2.0 1,488.6 1980 - 24 MONTSERRAT TABLE XII VALUE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION 1979-1980 EC$ 1979 1980 EC$ CARICOM E.C.C.Mv'STATES Antigua Dominica Grenada St. Kitts, Nevis St, Lucia St. Vincent TOTAL E.C.C.M. 137,217 58,345 1,240 18,901 15,182 4,557 235,442 9.2 4.0 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.3 15.9 75,7 71 165,621 .112,2 77 43,288 69,210 285,718 751,885 44,935 3.0 132,498 4.3 9.4 6.3 2.4 3.9 16.1 42.5 OTHER CARICOM STATES Barbados Guyana Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago TOTAL M.D.C,'s 261,534 305,469 17.6 20 = b 191,975 324,4 73 10.8 18,3 TOTAL CARICOM 541,911 36 o ' ? 1,076,358 60.8 - - - 7.5 - OTHER CARIBBEAN Anguilla British Virgin Island s 4,148 United States Virgin Islands 49,600 French West Indies 106,5*1 St, Maarten 66,183 Other 1,419 TOTAL OTHER CARIBBEAN 227,891 - - - 0.3 10,565 0.6 3.3 7,2 4,4 0.x 15.3 890 31,038 8,577 1,700 52,770 0 1.8 0.5 0.1 3.0 132,828 8.9 2,610 0.2 275,760 408,588 18.5 27.4 389,547 392,157 22.0 310,251 20.8 248,952 388 14.1 0 1,770,625 100 NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America TOTAL NORTH AMERICA 22.1 EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY United Kingdom Spain — GRAND TOTAL = 1 ,488,641 * 1J East Caribbean Common Market. Source% Data supplied CEPAL, — 100 - 25 ~ MONTSERRAT TABLE XIII BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ($ Mill.) 1977 1978 1979 1980 Exports of Goods and non factor services 9.1 10.7 13.1 15.0 Imports of Goods and non factor services 19.0 26.7 37.4 35,0 Resource Balance -9.9 -16.0 -24.3 -20.0 Net factor service payments -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 - 0 . 1 2.9 Current Account Balance 4.0 4,5 2,4 -6.9 Transfers (net) 12.0 -19.8 -17,6 9,1 16,3 8.3 -> Private Capital IJ Public Capital 6. / 1.6 3,3 9.6 6.1 1.6 3,5 7.7 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.0 -0.3 /"I VJL a L L L O Loans • Amortization - Financial System - 0 . 1 Capital Account Balance Change in International Reserves (- = increase) Source: 9.3 - 2 . 4 - 10.7 1.3 IBRD Mission estimates, converted to EC$ at rate of US$1.00 = EC$2.67. - - 0.3 19,8 12.8 - - 26 M0MTSEK3AT TABLE XIV RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (EC$ per imperial gallon) Gasolene Regular Premium Period Kerosene Diesel oil Fuel oil LPG per 100 lbs < 1972 1973 March 1974 - 1.68 1.17 1.2/ - 36.00 March 1976 - 1.90 ... ... - 36.00 March 1977 - 2.27 1.70 1.91 - 42.00 March 1978 - 2.41 1.77 2.05 - 48.00 March 1979 - 2.80 1.77 2.05 - 55.00 Feb. - 4.73 4.35 4.20 - 80.45 1980 Source: Energy file - Ministry of Agriculture, Trade and Housing. I I PART XI KITTS-NEVIS COUNTRY NOTES < I ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 ST. KITTS-NEVIS (East Caribbean dollars used throughout) Foreign earnings in both merchandise account and invisibles I grew in 1980. Sugar earnings grew because of high prices although output in fact fell. Performance in the Tourist sector was good, a small decrease in stopover guests being more than compensated for by an increase in cruise ship arrivals. i The balance on foreign travel account at commercial banks showed an increase. In the Industrial sector the only significant increase was in footwear, while other areas showed small declines. Increases in imports were substantial and grew at a faster rate than exports, the deficit on merchandise trade account growing at an increasing rate. Retail prices increased overall by 15.7 percent and wage settlements negotiated in the year showed increases in excess of that figure. The budget for 1980 showed a fiscal surplus, with increases in current income of 35 percent caused by increased returns from the sugar levy and increased revenues from import and consumption duties. Current expenditure increased by 20 percent but capital expenditure, at the same time, fell by 62 percent. Capital revenue amounted to $2.2 million and elevated the budget surplus to approximately $6 million. Agriculture Agriculture in St. Kitts relates primarily to the cultivation of sugar cane, which in 1978 - the last year for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates were prepared - accounted for approximately 53 percent of the contribution of the Agricultural sector. Other crops include coconuts, from which copra is produced, cotton, fresh vegetables and recently, the cultivation of groundnuts. Preliminary indications are that sugar cane production decreased - 2 by 8.5 percent in 1980 from the level of 1979—. Prior to this, there had been a steady increase in the volume of sugar cane reaped although sugar output had been decreasing. Sugar output for 1980 shows a decrease of 12.9 percent below the level of 1979, caused by a decrease in the tonnage of sugar cane reaped as well as a decrease in the sugar content of the cane. It should be noted that in 1977, 358,000 tonnes of sugar cane produced 42,300 tonnes of sugar, whereas in 1980 357,000 tonnes of cane produced 34,400 tonnes of raw sugar. During 1980, sugar prices were high so that despite a reduction in export volumes, final figures are expected to show export earnings to be buoyant. As a result of this, sugar workers were provided with two bonuses at the end of 1980 in addition to an increase of 25 percent in wages at the beginning of 1980 - the year the new government took office. Employment in this industry fluctuates over the season from a peak of 4,700 workers to approximately 3,450. The fluctuation is reduced by Government policies to find employment for cane cutters in the off-season in other areas such as vegetable production on National Agricultural Corporation (NACO) lands. The sugar industry is, therefore, highly labour intensive and it has been officially recognised that costs of production are high. Since all sugar production is controlled by Government through its agent NACO a strong case exists for investment in the industry to increase yields and reduce costs of production and to provide alternate sources of employment for displaced sugar workers, through a policy of diversification. This is necessary to supplement current efforts on the refinery side to increase productivity. The remaining traditional export crops are coconuts for copra and cotton. First quarter figures for copra show an increase in export earnings of approximately 4.8 percent over a similar period in 1979. Details of production for 1980 are not available but previous figures show a fluctuation of between 100-150 tonnes. Two projects were proposed for budget year 1980 1/ See Table II in Statistical Appendix. > - 3 ^ related to coconut production and the coir and copra products industry. Funding was not available for these projects. Cotton production has shown a steady decline from 71,200 kg in 1976 to 4,300 kg in 1979. ) Figures are not available for 1980. The cultivation and ginning of cotton has been concentrated m Nevis, and the Government has placed a high priority on the resuscitation of the industry. It has promised to make government lands available to farmers for cotton production and to provide • loans, subsidies and machinery for that purpose. It also proposes to establish demonstration plots for farmers and to examine the feasibility of establishing a weaving industry. A wide variety of root, vegetable and fruit crops is currently ' grown in St. Kitts. Sales from small farmers to the Central Market- ing Corporation (CEMACO) - one of the functions of which is to stimulate, facilitate and improve the production, marketing and processing of produce in the state, particularly for the benefit of 1 the producer - have increased by 158 percent between 1979 and 1980. On the other hand, exports by CEMACO have grown by 2.0 percent due to an increase in sales of unshelled peanuts which increased by 5.6 percent. ' Peanuts have moved from 95 percent to 99 percent of CEMACO exports between 1979 and 1980. While the value of peanut exports has only increased by 5.6 percent it should be noted that output increased by 39.6 percent. ( Land surveys indicate that St. Kitts and Nevis have adequate quantities of good and medium quality land for the production of 2/ fruit and vegetable crops—. Markets with high purchasing power exist in close proximity to St. Kitts, provided that a steady quantity of good quality products is available. The major constraint to effective export performance is currently a reliable water supply which will need to be provided by artesian wells. The techniques used by small farmers will also need to be upgraded by more effective 2/ Source : IFILL, Max - Marketing in St. Kitts-Nevis CEPAL/CARIB 80/3. extension services, and land tenure practices will need to be examined to ascertain whether they create a disincentive to small farmers to upgrade the long term productivity of the land. Manufacturing In 1978 Manufacturing contributed 11.7 percent of GDP, and absorbed about 8 percent of the labour force. The sector is expected to retain this percentage of its contribution to GDP in 1980. Traditionally, Manufacturing has concentrated on the processing of agricultural raw materials of the main agricultural products, hence sugar and molasses from sugar cane, and cotton lint from raw cotton. The soft drink industry developed later and recently production of garments, footwear and electrical appliances, have been pursued in order to take advantage of the availability of competitive labour rates. Details of the sugar industry have been given in the analysis dealing with Agriculture. It should be noted briefly that the output of sugar and 3/ molasses fell by 12 percent- and 7 percent respectively below the 1979 levels observed, due to reduced output of sugar cane and diminished sucrose content. The most recent entrants to the Manufacturing sector - footwear, garments and electrical appliances - produce primarily for the export market, and are primarily chosen because of their capacity to absorb unskilled female labour. Together they now employ 57 percent of the industrial labour force - more labour than all other occupations except the sugar estates, and 86 percent of those employed in these three trades are women. Based on first 4/ quarter figures— for 1980, footwear exports increased by 281 percent over 1979. Export value for clothing and electrical appliances decreased by 17 percent and 23 percent respectively over the same time period. Government is anxious to develop industry, especially light labourintensive industry, as the means of absorbing surplus unskilled labour. To this end, it has an industrial incentives programme and in 1980 made a slight reduction in the rate of company tax. 3/ Table II. 47 Table VI. Bearing in mind comments made with regard to improving productivity in the Agricultural sector and the fact that the non-traditional manufacturing occupations currently operating favour female labour, special emphasis will need to be made to find occupation for the unskilled male labour force. Development in Employment and Unemployment The registration of all firms in St. Kitts has only just started. It is therefore difficult to get precise details of fluctuation in the levels of employment and unemployment. It is estimated that in 1980 the population in the age group 14-64 would be approximately 27,000. The latter figure is difficult to establish with any degree of precision because of the seasonal nature of employment in the sugar cane and tourism industries. No developments have, however, taken place that are likely to have changed the overall employment figures significantly. Trade union pressures to reduce the seasonal fluctuation in these industries have been rewarded by guaranteeing workers a three day week in the slack season. As has been alluded to elsewhere, recent developments in light manufacturing favour female workers and emphasis will need in future to be placed on projects to absorb unskilled male workers. Construction Construction activity is estimated to have continued at a high level in 1980 due mainly to on-going public sector capital expenditure projects. These projects included the Basseterre Deep-water harbour, resurfacing of thirty-two miles of St. Kitts main road and Extension of the Golden Rock airport terminal, main construction of which was completed at the end of 1980. Work was also carried out on the Nevis pier, and the New Castle airport terminal building. In addition to these projects from the capital budget recurrent expenditure on Public Works was increased by 26 percent for 1980,—^ mainly for the maintenance and refurbishing of public buildings in St. Kitts and Nevis. record of private housing starts is available but an analysis of 5/ Budget Estimates, St. Kitts-Nevis 1980. No - 6bank loans and advances shows an increase of 5.6 percent— at December 1980 over December 1979, for building construction. Government capital expenditure was biased heavily towards improving the transport and communications system of the twin island state. In addition to the projects listed above, a new ferry was purchased to upgrade the communications between St. Kitts and Nevis. THE EXTERNAL SECTOR St. Kitts is a small open island economy that is highly vulnerable to external economic developments. It is dependent upon imports for a significant proportion of the goods it must consume and must export a major proportion of its output. It is dependent upon imports for almost all of its energy. Merchandise Trade St. Kitts has been running a growing deficit on visible trade—^ In 1976 the deficit amounted to 25 percent of domestic exports. the deficit had risen to 95 percent of exports. In 1979 Complete figures for 1980 show an increase in the deficit on visible trade of 53 percent over the corresponding period for 1979. Earnings from domestic exports remained relatively stagnant in money terms between 1976-79. For the first quarter of 1980, sugar shows an 8/ increase in earnings of 66 percent— over the corresponding period in 1979 due in part to higher prices and a favourable rate of exchange between the pound sterling and the U.S. dollar (to which the EC$ is tied). For the corresponding period gains were also made in exports of footwear of 281 percent and in exports of beer and ale 24 percent. Reduced earnings were recorded for exports of fish, clothing and electrical appliances. First quarter earnings on the whole have increased by 21 percent in 1980 over 1979, mainly due to the influence of sugar on the export basket. 6/ Table XII in Statistical Appendix. Ij Table VII of the Statistical Appendix. 8/ Table VI of the Statistical Appendix. I - 7 The value of imports has increased steadily since 1976. First quarter figures show an increase of 43 percent in 1980 over 1979. This is a faster rate of increase than in 1979 which registered an increase of 32 percent over 1978. For 1980 all items showed increases except machinery and equipment. Significant increases were registered in expenditure for petroleum products 72 percent, and for food 50 percent. Largest increases were posted for manu- factured articles 114 percent and for manufactured goods 97 percent. Since the United Kingdom and other EEC countries are the major sources of imports the upward movement of the pound sterling could account for some of the increases in the latter two items. Private Remittances A significant source of foreign exchange is obtained by 9/ remittances from citizens living abroad—. While there might be some imprecision in distinguishing between earnings on travel account and remittances, commercial bank returns indicate that more was earned by the latter than by the former. Funds obtained from personal remittances decreased by 13 percent from the 1979 level although it was still 11 percent greater than funds obtained on the foreign travel account in 1980. Earnings from both accounts amounted to more than EC$30 million in 1980, an increase of 18 percent. Details of other foreign currency transactions for 1980 are not currently available, and detailed balance of payments accounts for St. Kitts are just being compiled. Tourism Total visitor arrivals to St. Kitts-Nevis increased by 6.6 percent m 19SO1-/. The increase, however, conceals the fact that the number of stop-over visitors decreased by 1.2 percent over the period while cruise-ship visitors increased by 93.2 percent. The number of cruise ships visiting the country increased by 33 percent. 9/ Table IX of the Statistical Appendix. 10/ For details see Table IV of the Statistical Appendix. i - 8The decline in stop-over visitors is in line with trends throughout the Caribbean. The number of stop-over visitors originating from the United States decreased by 8 percent whereas visitors originating in the EEC increased by 18 percent over 1979. by 5 percent. Visitors from Canada increased The decline in arrivals from the United States is believed to be linked to economic factors in the United States, with potential travellers either deferring travel, taking vacations nearer home or choosing cruise-ship vacations. Room occupancy rates in St. Kitts-Nevis are low at around 27-28 percent, and fluctuate seasonally from a high of 56 percent in February to 14 percent in September. Occupancy rates in Nevis are on the whole lower than those in St. Kitts. Average length of stay of stop-over visitors is higher in Nevis at 6 days than in St. Kitts at 5 days, but there is greater seasonal fluctuation from 8 days in February and March to 3 days in September and October in Nevis than in St. Kitts which fluctuates from 7-4 days during the same periods. The number of cruise-ship visitors shows healthy growth from 1977 of 50 percent. 111 percent. During the same period stop-over visitors increased by Facilities for tourists, however, are underutilized, particularly in the summer months and efforts will need to be made to induce more guests to visit in the summer months. For 1980, budget allocations for Tourism increased by 103 percent, 11/ a portion of which was allocated to increased promotion abroad,— Government is no doubt cognizant of the fact that after the Public sector and the Sugar Industry, Tourism is the largest employer of labour and that foreign exchange earnings on the travel account amounted to EC$14.4 12/ million,— a figure which is surpassed only by the sugar industry and foreign remittances. 11/ Table IX of the Statistical Appendix. 12/ 1980 Budget Address and Estimates. - 9 PRICES AND WAGES Prices of all items increased on average by 17.9 percent in 13/ 1980^- . The increase was fastest in the first quarter declining progressively towards the end of the year. The most rapid price increases were measured in those groups - transportation, and fuel and light, which increased by 42 percent and 29 percent respectively. In the case of transport, greatest gains were made in the first and last quarters. The category - fuel and light - made its greatest gains in the second quarter and moderated towards the end of the year. In fact there was a price decrease in December. Household supplies and Furniture and Appliances increased slightly more than average. The category housing decreased in the second quarter, with a slow increase towards the end of the year. Food prices which are given a weight of 50 perc ent in the overall basket, increased by 14.6 percent over the previous year. This rate of increase was lower than that of the All Items index which increased by 15.7 percent over the figure of the previous year. Inflation was in the main imported, with those items having the highest import content also having the highest rate of price increase. Thus below average increases were registered in food, alcohol and clothing and especially in housing. A licencing and price control unit was established in 1980 as Government has indicated its determination to keep price rises as small as possible on basic items. A formal wages policy does not exist in St. Kitts, either in terms of wage ceilings or guidelines, or in terms of relative movements of wages between sectors. Increases are in the main determined by negotiating procedures between the unions and management, with Government officials as observers or arbitrators. There is a general awareness that too rapid wage increases might militate against a rapid solution of the unemployment problem, but no formal policy exists in that regard. 13/ Table X of the Statistical Appendix. - 10 Minimum wage rates are established for domestic and shop workers. As these rates are revised infrequently, there is a tendency toward redundancies whenever revisions do occur, and an awareness that these categories are highly susceptible to wage increases. For this reason Government has been cautious in accepting proposals for the establishment of minimum wages for eight other categories of workers. Sugar workers form the largest single category of workers in St. Kitts. They received a 25 percent salary increase in early 1980, which was greater than the amount originally decided, of 17 percent. addition they received an end of year bonus in December 1980. In A number of industrial workers also received wage awards ranging from increases of 18 percent to 33 percent. Some of these were for periods of more than one year. FISCAL AND MONETARY ACTIVITIES Fiscal Developments Current income of Central Government increased by 35.6 percent over 14/ 1979^=— . The main reasons for this gain were: increased earnings from import duties, increases in the category "Other Taxes", which include the sugar levy and other local receipts. The returns from the sugar levy increased by 35 percent to EC$11.6 million from EC$8.6 million in 1979. This was achieved despite the fact that the base price above which the levy would be collected was raised from EC$696 to EC$800 per tonne. It reflects the fact that sugar prices were particularly high rather than increased output. Revenue from import duties increased by 37 percent and did not reflect a change in rate, but rather an increase in the value of imports—''. Income tax revenues showed a slight increase. This is noteworthy because personal income tax was abolished after May 1980. Company income tax rates were at the same time consolidated to one rate of 50 percent from a previous two—tier rate, which 14/ Table XI of the Statistical Appendix. 15/ Table VII of the Statistical Appendix. (Government•claimed) > - 11 previously meant that most companies paid a rate of 55 percent. ^ A tax of 10 percent was also levied on the value of remittances abroad made by companies. A hotel tax of 5 percent of the total bill of each guest was also collected. A tax of 2 percent on outgoing foreign currency was levied and the 1 percent tax on incoming foreign * currency was abolished, a change which is consistent with Government policy of inducing and retaining foreign currency. Current expenditures increased by 20 percent over 1979 due ^ mainly to increased wages and salaries paid to government employees. The savings on current account was nevertheless a healthy EC$8.6 million or an increase of 350 percent over the previous year. On the capital side, expenditure was down by 62 percent from • the previous year and a 90 percent reduction on that which was projected for the year. This was due in part to difficulty in finding the finance to carry out projects previously proposed. The funds spent went to provide local counterpart funding for existing ( projects at the airport, and the St. Kitts main road, as well as the purchase of a new ferry boat for communications between St. Kitts and Nevis. Earnings on capital amounted to EC$2.2 million. Added to the fiscal surplus of EC$3.8 million, the overall budget surplus therefore amounted to almost EC$6 million. This compares with the previous year which recorded a deficit of EC$10.7 million. I Monetary Developments 16/ Total money supply increased in 1980 by 15.1 percent—. This comprised an increase of 24.1 percent of M^ and an increase in quasi-money of 12.9 percent. Currency outside banks remained constant but demand deposits increased by 42 percent. Time deposits increased by 20 percent and savings deposits by 9.1 percent. The latter shows a declining trend since 1978. 16/ Table XI of the Statistical Appendix. - 12 - Commercial Banks' loans and advances showed a 42.8 percent increase in December 1980 over December 1979^/ Major increases were registered in the sectors Public Utilities 186 percent, Government 106 percent and Transport 95 percent. Personal advances increased by 52 percent. The directly productive sectors Agriculture, Manufacturing and Tourism did not feature on the overall increase in loans and advances. Only Manufacturing expanded in this respect with an increase of 14 percent for the sector as a whole. Loans and advances to Agriculture contracted by 33 percent and follows a year of great contraction of 87 percent in 1979. Loans and Advances to Tourism also contracted but the figure was less at 10.7 percent. 17/ Table XII of the Statistical Appendix. STATISTICAL APPENDIX ST. KITTS-NEVIS 1980 > - 13 ST. KITTS-NEVIS ' TABLE I GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT FACTOR COST 1977-1980 (EC$ Mill.) Percentage change 1978 1979 1980 1977 Year 1978 1979 14.8 14.6 —1.3 Sugar cane 8.6 7.8 -9.3 Other 6.2 6.8 9.7 Mining and Quarrying 0.2 0.3 50.0 Manufacturing, Total 12.1 11.7 -3.3 Sugar and Molasses 8.6 7.3 -15.1 Other 3.5 4.4 25.7 Electricity and Water 0.7 0.9 28.7 Construction 4.6 4.9 6.5 Wholesale and Retail Trade 6.2 7.0 14.7 Hotels and Restaurants 0.8 2.2 175.0 Transport and Communications 5.7 6.3 10.5 Government Services 10.8 16.4 51.8 General Services 12.8 14.5 13.3 Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost 68.6 78.8 14.9 Agriculture, Total Source: > 1980 Statistical Office, St. KittsNevis, and CEPAL estimates. ««s « •• . .. — »OB •O • • 00 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE II ESTIMATED OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Percentage Change 1978 1980 1977 1979 Commodities Metric Units 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Sugar cane '000 tonnes 326.1 358.0 368.0 390.0 357.0 9.6 2.8 6„0 -8 = 5 Sugar M 36.2 42.3 40.4 39.5 34.4 16 - 8 -4.5 -2.2 -12.9 Molasses M 9.1 12.1 10.6 12.2 11.3 33.0 -12.4 15.1 -7.4 71.2 32.1 20.2 4.3 -54.9 -37.0 -78.7 i t 21.5 9.5 6.3 -55.8 33.7 • • • Tonnes 94.6 111.7 101.6 18.0 -9.1 • « « Cotton (raw) Cotton lint Copra Unshelled peanuts '000 kg H - - - 155.4 112.8 214.4 Source : Data supplied by Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. - — — 90.0 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE III MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION Volume of Principal Products Metric Units 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Sugar '000 tonnes 36.2 42.3 40.4 39.5 34.4 H 9.1 12.1 10.6 12.2 11.3 2,127 2,118 2,291 2,486 922 1,226 1,085 1,323 21.5 9.5 6.3 Molasses Aerated water '000 litres Beer and Malt m Cotton, Lint '000 kg Electricity generated '000 kwh 21,926 12,837 22,969 17,087 17,322 20,217 1,359 24,809 i t •e« 19,684 Electricity sold Footwear^ $'000 Clothing^ I I Electrical Appliances-^ I I • • • • • • • 1/ Data relate to exports. Source: 2,047 • • Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. - • • • • • • 4,026 3,920 - • • • ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE IV SELECTED TOURISM STATISTICS Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 1977 1978 1979 1980 15,438 20,234 32,980 32,585 31.1 63.0 -1.2 953 2,092 2,993 5,782 119.6 43.1 93.2 16,391 22,326 35,973 38,367 36.2 61.1 6.6 5 10 18 24 100.0 80.0 33.0 St. Kitts- 4 5 5 5 25.0 Nevis 6 7 6 6 16.7 -14.3 18.3 21.9 27.0 28.7- 19.5 23.5 6.3 820 860 881 9006 4.9 2.4 2.2 Stop-over visitors Cruise-ship visitors TOTAL VISITORS Number of cruise-ship calls Average length of stay of stop-over visitors (days): Room Occupancy Rate % Number of hotel beds 1/ Figure relates to St. Kitts only. Source: Data supplied by Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. — — - ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE V SELECTED EXPORTS BY VOLUME Commodities Quantity Metric Units 1976 1977 1978 1979 Sugar '000 tonnes 31.5 38.6 37.7 37.6 22.5 -2.6 0.0 Molasses '000 litres 4,537 6,728 7,514 6,419 48.3 11.6 -14.5 Copra Tonnes 102 152 102 152 49.0 -33.0 49.0 Non-alcoholic beverages '000 litres 209 145 232 255 -30.6 60.0 9.9 " 218 341 236 227 56.4 -30.8 -3.8 84 99 117 92 17.8 18.2 -21.4 499 452 518 490 -9.4 14.6 -5.4 Beer and ale Fish (including lobster) '000 kg Live animals Number Source : Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. 1980 Percentage changes 1977 1978 1979 1980 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE VI SELECTED EXPORTS BY VALUE (EC$'000) Commodities 1st Quarter 1979 1980 1976 1977 1978 1979 27,000 25,000 32,000 30,521 666 959 436 876 64 113 108 144 174.7 Non-alcoholic beverages 128 120 146 298 Beer and ale 315 511 391 Fish (including lobster) 262 419 Live animals 120 97 Percentage changes 1977 1978 1979 1980 -7.4 28.0 6.0 44.0 -54.5 100.9 183.1 76.6 -4.4 33.3 4.8 75.7 73.5 -6.2 21.6 104.0 -2.9 389 149 185 62.2 -23.5 -0.5 24.2 484 346 89 79 59.9 15.5 -28.5 -11.2 158 157 25 43 -19.2 62.9 -0.6 73.0 3,920 1,377 1,055 Clothing 4,026 1,114 920 Footwear 2,047 308 1,174 2l5 70 134 Sugar Molasses Copra Electrical appliances Mineral manufactures — — Source : Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. 1,704 2,833 - - 66.2 - -23.4 — — -17.4 281.2 91.4 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE VII EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND BALANCE ON VISIBLE TRADE 1976-1980 (EC$'000) Year Domestic Exports Total Exports Imports—^ 1976 44,690 46,402 57,711 -11,309 ... 1977 38,287 40,535 59,178 -18,643 64.8 1978 42,637 45,211 65,366 -20,155 8.1 1979 43,940 45,474 86,659 -41,185 104.0 3/ 1979^ 5,143 5,420 19,318 -13,898 19 80^' 6,257 6,476 27,734 -21,258 If Imports c.i.f. 2/ Figures indicate growth in deficit 3/ First quarter figures Source: Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. Balance of Visible Trade Percentage changes in balance 2J 53.0 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE VIII IMPORTS BY SITC SECTIONS (EC$'000) First Quarter 1979 First Quarter 1980 Percentage changes 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 Food and Live Animals 13,629 16,039 18,158 4,900 7,386 17.7 13.4 50.8 Beverages and Tobacco 1,356 1,700 1,940 407 577 25.4 14.1 41.8 Crude Materials, inedible except Fuels 1,772 1,415 1,138 412 430 -20.1 29.4 4.4 Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and related Materials 5,086 5,455 7,313 1,561 2,687 7,3 34.1 72.1 Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats 481 440 511 75 140 -8.5 16.1 86.6 4,597 5,949 6,711 1,324 1,879 29.4 12.8 41.9 Manufactured Goods Classified by Materials 10,902 12,446 20,742 3,173 6,252 14.2 66.6 97.0 Machinery and Transport Equipment 16,788 14,661 19,201 5,644 4,890 -12.7 31.0 -13.3 4,498 6,922 9,733 1,630 3,491 53.9 40.6 114.2 68 339 492 191 1 398.5 45.2 -99.5 59,178 65,366 86,659 : 19,318 27,734 10.4 32.6 43.6 Chemicals Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles Commodities and Transactions not classified according to kind TOTAL Source : Data supplied by the Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. - 21 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE I X FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS BY COMMERCIAL BANKS (EC$'000) 1979 Balance of Travel Account Foreign Travel Purchases Foreign Travel Sales Balance on Personal Remittances Account Personal Remittances Purchases Personal Remittances Sales Balance on Foreign Exchange Transactions Source: 1980 Percentage change 7,134 14,390 101.7 10,819 18,037 66.7 3,685 3,647 -1.0 18,587 16,070 -13.5 21,968 20,381 -7.2 3,381 4,311 27.5 25,721 30,460 18.4 Data supplied by East Caribbean Currency Authority (ECCA). - 21 ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE X INDEX OF RETAIL PRICES (JAN. 1978 = 100) Average annual % change 1980 % change Dec 1979 and Dec 1980 % Weight 1979 1980 100.0 117.0 137.9 17.9 15.7 50.0 116.6 133.2 14.2 14.6 Alcohol and Tobacco 5.6 118.9 137.4 15.6 11.7 Clothing and Footwear 7.5 111.7 130.9 17.2 5.2 Fuel and Light 6.6 118.2 152.8 29.3 25.0 Housing 7.6 118.1 121.4 2.8 2.5 Furniture and Appliances 3.7 121.5 145.5 19.7 22.4 Household supplies 5.7 123.6 147.7 19.5 12.3 Transport 4.3 121.2 171.8 41.7 42.8 Miscellaneous 9.0 112.3 147.0 30.9 22.6 Group Total - All Items Food Source: Annual Index of Retail Prices, 1979 and 1980. ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE XI MONEY SUPPLY (EC$'000) 1976 Balance at end of December 1977 1978 1979 1980 1977 Annual Growth Rate 1978 19791980 Money : Currency outside banks 6,444 6,821 8,620 10,406 10,406 5.8 26.4 20,7 ... Demand deposits 7,481 7,494 10,084 13,678 19,491 0.2 34,6 35,6 42,5 13,925 14,315 18,704 24,084 29,897 2.8 30.7 28,8 24.1 Time deposits 17,566 22,250 31,216 34,612 41,536 26.6 40.3 10.3 20.0 Savings deposits 39,971 46,449 52,918 65,295 71,255 16.2 13.9 23.4 9.1 Total Quasi-money 57,537 68,699 84,134 99,907 112,791 19.4 22.5 18,7 12.9 Total money supply 71,462 83,014 102,838 123,991 142,688 16.2 23.9 20.6 15.1 Total (M ) Quasi-money: 1/ On partial data. Source: East Caribbean Currency Authority (ECCA). ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE XII QUARTERLY ANALYSIS OF BANKS' LOANS AND ADVANCES (EC$'000) Dec. 1976 Dec. 1977 Dec. 1978 Dec. 1979 Dec. 1980 1977 852 2,127 5,019 638 429 149.6 136.0 -87.3 -32.7 1,373 3,246 3,264 2,445 2,808 136.4 0.5 -25.1 14.8 320 420 271 201 246 31.3 -35.5 -25.8 22.4 (2) Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 383 672 918 285 383 75.5 36.6 -68.9 34.4 (3) Clothing and Accessories 113 1,357 766 700 800 1100.8 -43.5 -8.6 14.4 (4) Other Industries 558 797 1,309 1,259 1,379 42.8 64.2 -3.8 9.5 Distributive Trades 6,269 8,174 7,116 10,456 12,082 30.4 -12.9 46.9 15.5 Tourism 1,813 2,162 5,127 5.215 4,655 19.2 137.1 1.7 -10.7 Transport 2,592 4,092 8,745 7,856 15,321 57.9 113.7 -10.2 95.0 -285 56 67 14 40 -80.3 19.6 -79.1 185.7 466 1,117 4,593 8,396 8,865 139.7 311.2 82.8 5.6 3,617 4,756 2,961 10,939 22,548 31.5 -37.7 269.4 106.2 11,976 13,633 13,064 13,094 19,905 13.8 -4.2 0.2 52.0 1,388 1,918 3,686 5,590 5,693 38.2 92.2 51.6 1.8 30,634 41,281 53,642 64,643 92,346 34.7 29.9 20.5 42.8 42.2 41.3 40.2 62.5 63.8 Agriculture Manufacturing (1) Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Public Utilities (gas, electricity, telephone) Building Construction Government and Other Statutory Bodies Personal Other Advances Total Loans and Advances % of Long Term Loans to Total Loans Source: East Caribbean Currency Authority (ECCA). • Percentage change 1978 1979 1980 » • • ST. KITTS-NEVIS TABLE XIII CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (EC$'000) 1/ 19 8 0 ^ 1/ 1980^- Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 1977 Import duties Export duties Excise duties Consumption duties Income tax Other taxes Other local receipts CURRENT EXPENDITURE Wages and Salaries Other current expenditure 3 = SAVINGS ON CURRENT A/C (1-2) 1979 27,650 CURRENT REVENUE 1978 34,602 40,337 47,065 54,704 25.1 16.6 35.6 3,979 339 32 5,065 6,012 3,877 8,329 4,706 385 58 5,900 8,435 7,301 7,817 5,527 395 56 6,440 7,026 10,751 10,128 5,500 397 76 7,500 6,500 11,359 15,732 7,597 397* 76* 8,242 7,200 14,459* 16,700* 18.3 13.6 81 16 40 88 17 ,4 2 .6 -3 ,4 9 ,1 -16 ,7 47 , 2 29 , 6 37.5 0.5 35.7 28.0 2.5 34.5 64.9 28,575 32,491 38,430 46,987 46,126 13.7 18.3 20.0 9,679 18,896 13,091 19,400 14,981 23,449 17,344 29,643 35.2 2.7 14.4 20.9 2,111 1,907 78 8,578 4,235 7,863 12,673 49,144 4,781 32,810 40,354 51,103 96,131 -5,752 -10,766 -49,066 (925) 4. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 5. TOTAL EXPENDITURE (2+4) 6. FISCAL DEFICIT (or surplus)(1-5) *-5,160 7. FINANCING OF DEFICIT 13,258 1,317 20,846 12,835 14,146 Capital Revenue Loans (incl. unspent balances) Development aid Other grants 1/ Data relate to budget estimates April 1980. Source: -9.7 349.8 85.6 61.2 -62.3 50,907 23.0 32.8 -0.4 +3,797 11.5 87.2 -135.3 49,144 927 7,326 2,442 3,262 - 6 Statistical Office, St. Kitts-Nevis. 2,202 2/ Data relate to estimates April 1981 for 1980. ( I I I ( I I I I PART XII LUCIA COUNTRY NOTES I I I I ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 ST. LUCIA (East Caribbean dollars used throughout)— No official figures of sectoral contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are available for 1980, but performances in the various sectors all indicate a decline in real terms. This was principally due to the devastation of hurricane "Allen" which struck on 2 August 1980. Prior to the hurricane, the Government pursued its policy of diversification and rehabilitation of traditional export crops. hurricane however, caused a great setback in this sector. The Rehabilita- tion programmes took on a greater urgency since most of the crops were ruined. The Manufacturing sector reflected a slower rate of investment and was also adversely affected by the hurricane. The lack of investment in the Manufacturing sector also reflects the political instability within the island since 1979. A CEPAL estimate puts the 1980 GDP at current Market Prices at $229 million. The performance of the tourist industry also declined. The decrease in hotel occupancy rates by 13.9 percent between 1979 and 1980 is one of the main indicators of the slump in tourism activity. Public sector activity is estimated to have risen in 1980 but Government expenditure had to be met mainly from revenue earned from traditional sources. After August, much of Government revenue had to be channelled into hurricane rehabilitation projects and reconstruction activities. PERFORMANCE IN MAJOR SECTORS Agriculture The Agricultural sector remains one of the most important goodsproducing and employment generating sectors in St. Lucia, but during 1/ Since July 1976, the EC dollar has a fixed parity with the US dollar, namely, US$1.00 = EC$2.70. - 2 - 1980 it faced a serious setback as a result of hurricane "Allen". In general, estimates of production prior to August 1980 show consistency with the previous year. Production of the main agricultural products - bananas, cocoa beans, spices, coconuts and vegetables - was completely halted or drastically reduced from August 1980. The Agricultural sector has suffered a number of setbacks due to climatic variations for a number of years. It has been subject to hurricane "David" in 1979 and previous to that, a continuous series of drought years within the decade 1970-1980. Production figures for bananas over the period 1976 to 1980 show a fluctuation. Table 1 Banana Production (Weight and Value) Year Tonnes F.O.B. Value (EC$) 1976 43. ,429 22. ,487: ,083 1977 ,274 39: 24: ,752: ,629 1978 50, ,864 36:,123: ,147 1979 47:,512 ,526: ,457 35: 30;,117 ,658 26, ,069: 1/ 1980^- 1/ Data January to August 1980. Source: Windward Islands Banana Growers' Association reports. The general decline in the Agricultural sector has led to a number of enquiries by the present Government in order to rationalise the sector. In 1980, prior to hurricane "Allen", the Government's policy of diversification was pursued with emphasis on tree crops and livestock production. The projects of tree crop diversification emphasised the production of mangoes, avocadoes and grapefruit. The livestock project - specifically cattle rearing - is located at Beausejour and is intended to boost the production of meat and > - 3 - milk. The project has been on stream since 1978. On completion of a feasibility study it was formed into a company owned by government through the National Development Corporation. Between 1979 and 1980 livestock was imported and there has been progress in the development of facilities. The emphasis on livestock production led to the formation of a Pig Producers® Co-operative in 1980, the main object of which is to promote pig production. In order to boost agricultural production of the traditional export crops, rehabilitation programmes were continued. both coconuts and bananas. Emphasis was placed on However, the need for rationalisation of the banana industry led the Government to initiate an Inquiry into all aspects of the Banana Industry. 1980. An Interim Report was produced in June A full Report has since been completed. The need for rationalization of the agricultural sector led to a Commission of Inquiry into Land Tenure. During 1980, the inquiry continued but a report on its findings and recommendations was not completed by year end. Meanwhile, an experimental farmer resettlement scheme is being pursued. During 1980, progress on this project - the Roseau Resettlement Scheme - was limited to the establishment of the criteria for recruiting the farmers, and the creation of a central management supervisory unit which is now setting up the structure, i.e. the infrastruetural development and other prerequisites. Two categories of farms have been established: 1. Valley farms at five acres per farm for the production of bananas and vegetables. 2. Hillside farms at eleven acres per farm for the prouction of bananas and tree crops. Some infrastructural developments were pursued to assist marketing in the agricultural sector. In 1980, there were provisions of additional facilities by the expansion of existing buildings. However, the marketing system for domestic agriculture is still in need of improved organization. r *r . . In general,.farmers' real incomes continue t o decline as a result,of increased costs of. inputs. F.arme.rs faced ..increased cost;^ o f fertilizers, insecticides and , transportation .s.. .There haY^,.also been increases in costs o f equipment and. labour; costs, . as higher...yages. are.demanded to,meet the increasing cost of living. Fisheries • ... .. . ' . v . . ' : : " . f : ' ' ' » ( J - - J . r , ; • • „ • D o ' : ' . 1 ; : ' < • • • • • Although much was projected for the development of fisheries in the 1980 budget, not much was actually "achieved¡-The Government attempted the provision of cold storage •facilities at Vieux'Fort, but efforts at establishing these facilities ceased since ?the...hurricaneProvision! of the facilities is part of an attempt to accommodate the large catches during the first half of the year - the peak catching season -rand .hence'-increase the availability of fish during the rest of the year . : rrc.; u >. -h; c a On 2 August 1980, Hurricane .-Alien devastated-the agricultural sector. A government-initiated inquiry into .the .effects of the hurricane produced a report in September 1980;/. It ista comprehensive;study of the Agricultural If sector and contains proposals"for¿Agricultural..Rehabilitation — . Throughout the island, banana fields were destroyed. Other crops which were seriously af fected weire c o c o n u t s , ''mangoes,' a v o c a d o e s and root crops estimated damage being 40 - 50 per cent of "these crops. destruction to farm buildings and"livestock, Bananas: There was also < No appreciable exports of bananas were expected before April 1981. For 1980, losses were estimated.at EC$24.6 million. On the basis of pre-hurricane projections' for. the"perio'd ^1980-1983, it was estimated that the net cost of the hurricane.damage..to the banana industry over this period is EC$47.68 million. The ijamediatfe 'loss," o f . I n c o m e 1980 had a debilitating effect on the economy. r 1 c . . Z . ' r /!.I JV. I ~ ''-T from loss of income, ' om 'banana" e x p o r t a t i o n in Banana growers also suffered J .. '. 1 ! If Government of St, Lucia, Ministry of Agriculture, JLands, Fisheries, Co-operatives and Labour,' Hurricane Alien,' Agricultural Rehabilitation/ Development Programme, September, 1980. - 5 Coconuts: It is estimated that it would take a period of six years before pre-hurricane production levels are attained. Citrus : Destruction of citrus fruit was estimated at EC$3,422,000. Total destruction of trees was estimated at 20 per cent of total stock. Mangoes : Sixty per cent of the current annual crop was lost. 15 per cent of tree stock was totally destroyed. Approximately Based on annual production figures, losses for 1980, were estimated at EC$7.7 million. Avocadoes: The 1980 crop was totally destroyed. This was valued at EC$1.2 million. Coffee: Ninety per cent of total acreage under cultivation was damaged. Nutmeg : The losses for 1980 were valued at EC$3000,000, as ninety per cent of the trees were damaged. Cocoa: Crop losses for the year were valued at EC$800,000 and were estimated at 90 per cent of the yearly output, Plaintain/Macambon: Fruit damage was 100 per cent, valued at EC$1.9 million. Breadfruit : The entire crop on the trees was destroyed. this was estimated at EC$12,9 million. The value of Twenty-five per cent of the trees were also destroyed. Root crops: Yams - 25 per cent of total crop valued at EC$280,000. Cassava - 90 per cent of total crop valued at EC$71,000. Dasheen and Taifiiia- 20 per cent of total crop valued at EC$560,000. The total root crop losses were valued at EC$911,000, Vegetable crops: Estimated loss was 75 per cent of the total crop, valued at EC$2.8 million. The analysis of thé agricultural sector clearly reveals that it will take a number of years for recovery to pre-hurricane production levels. The sector is therefore in need of a massive injection of capital as well as technical assistance, in order to recover. By the end of 1980, intensive rehabilitation projects were planned for the sector. - 6 Fisheries: .The fisheries industry also suffered heavy losses as a result of the hurricane. forty lost. It is estimated that fifty fishing boats were damaged and Other fishing equipment was also lost, Manufacturing In 1980, there was a small expansion of industrial development in terms of the number of industries. Government's policy continues to be one of encouragement of.industrial development through foreign investment. The slower rate of such investment .in St. Lucia, has been attributed to the general international economic depression, the decreasing interest in the region, and what has been seen as political instability in St. Lucia since late 1978. The manufacturing.sector was adversely affected by Hurricane Allen, and several factories were closed as a result. The effect of this natural disaster was to depress economic activity in the sector. Energy The rising prices of imports of petroleum products continue to be reflected in the rise of retail prices of these products (See Table III ). The rate of increase of LPG, diesel oil, gasoline and kerosene ranged from 29 per cent to 33 per cent over 1979 retail prices. Although figures, are .only available for January to September 1980, the volume and value of imports of.selected hydrocarbons reflect the increased costs.of the products as compared with full^year figures for 1979. These increases are reflected in all products except jet fuel (See Table III). Government's interest in alternative sources of energy have been limited to support for research on.biogas. with the development of a wood stove. There has also been experimentation The principle by which the wood stove operates is more economical than the use of charcoal which is consumed at a high rate by the rural population. Construction The heavy construction activity of the previous years declined in 1980 because of the slowing of activity on the Hess Terminal, Hurricane Allen caused a further setback in this construction activity. Net increases in the construction of tourist accommodation units were noted. Reconstruction > - 7 activity in the post-hurricane period sought to redevelop infrastructure schools, public buildings and housing, in areas extending from Castries through Vieux Fort.to Canaries, estimated at EC$2.5 million. The cost of these initial repairs was Other major construction activity was the construction of the Air Cargo warehouse at Vieux Fort which began in 1980, to facilitate Caricargo - an air cargo company formed by the Governments of Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados. Airport facilities at Hewanorra, the international airport, were expanded, and other infrastructural developments such as bridges and roads were continued. • THE EXTERNAL SECTOR Trade The balance of trade continued to show a deficit in 1980, as in ^ previous years. Visible imports exceeded visible exports but the statistical data suggest some slight improvement. Table 2 . Balance of Trade (EC$'000) January to 1980 - September 1978 1979 Imports 223,469 273,180 240,262 Exports 72,400 86,100 101,700 Balance 151,069 187,080 138,562 Source: Data supplied, Government of St, Lucia. Statistics reveal that exports for 1980 (January to September) increased 17 per cent over 1979. Banana exports indicate some increase up to the third quarter of 1980. The average price per tonne up to the third quarter of 1980 was EC$864,4 million, an increase of 14 per cent over the price in 1979, Some 753,647 litres of unrefined coconut oil were exported up to September 1980, at an average price of $2.00 per litre. i I - 8Refined coconut oil earned EC$3.3 million in 1980 (January - September). The average price per litre rose from $3.00 in 1979 to $4.30 in 1980. Other exports from the agricultural sector contributing to export earnings to a lesser extent were: cocoa, beans, ginger, coconuts and coconut meal. As a result of Hurricane Allen, exports of agricultural produce declined drastically after August 1980. Coconut oil exports were not seriously ^ affected but the exports of cocoa and coconut, bananas and other agricultural crops were virtually ceased. Even the exportation of banana boxes declined. This has become a large export item but because the main importers i.e. Dominica, St. Vincent and Grenada were also adversely affected by the hurricane, banana boxes were not in demand. ^ Exports from the manufacturing sector with the exception of flour, were not seriously affected by the hurricane. The situation of other manufacturing exports was as follows: beer and * ale exports valued at EC$2.2 million up to the third quarter of 1980; lemonade and other flavoured waters valued at EC$2 million for the same period, which was equivalent to total income from these products in 1979. < An analysis of sectoral contributions of exports indicates that agriculture is gradually being replaced by the. manufacturing sector as the dominant export sector. Of total exports, agriculture contributed 46 per cent in 1978, 43 per ( cent in 1979 and 27 per cent in 1980; manufacturing contributed 42=5 per cent, 41.3 per cent and 38 per cent over the same three year period. The importation of goods continued to increase in value, reflecting the unabated price rises of imported goods. The food import bill remains high. In 1980, food accounted for 18.2 per cent of total imports. * The value of petroleum imports also increased as a result of oil price rises on the international market. Petroleum products accounted for 10,1 per cent of total imports.. Government.sources noted that whereas the volume of ' petroleum products imported dropped by 30 per cent an average price increase of 95 per cent - 43 cents per litre in 1979 to 84 cents per litre in 1980 had the effect of increasing.the cost to the economy of imported petroleum by $6.5 million. The situation of reduced volume of imports of meat and meat products and clothing also reflected increased unit prices, < - 9 The contribution of other selected items to the import bill for 1980 was as follows: motor vehicles - 5.6 per cent, electrical machinery and appliances - 10.2 per cent, capital goods - 19.9 per cent. In 1979 capital goods accounted for 14.4 per cent of imports. The direction of trade remained the same for 1980 (See Table VI). The United Kingdom remains the main importer of St, Lucia's fresh fruit and vegetables and the United States of America, the major overall import partner. Although the trade with Latin America has been erratic, Government has been encouraging the development of this trade link. with CARICOM countries consists of both imports and exports. Trade The bulk of St. Lucia's manufactured.goods (garments, beverages, edible oils, margarine, shortening, lard and animal feed, cooking butter and snack foods, fruit and vegetables - fresh and canned, etc.) were exported to CARICOM countries. Tourism There were difficulties in obtaining statistical data on tourism for 1980. It is apparent however, that the performance of this sector was poor, even though government revenue from Hotel Accommodation Tax 1979-1980 (EC$2.5m), showed an increase of EC$0»9m over the 1978-1979 revenue. On the.other hand, the number of visitors, especially in the category 'stop-over' declined. Statistics show that only 63.8 per cent occupancy rate was achieved for the first eight months of the year and reports from hoteliers reveal that there was not much improvement in the latter months of the year. In the previous year, hotel occupancy rates had reached an all time average of 87,7 per cent. The number of cruise ship visitors, however, tended to increase over stop-over visitors. From January to December, the number of cruise ship calls increased by 83 per cent over the full year figure for 1979. The contraction of stop-over visitors has caused hotels to decrease the numbers of employees and job offers to persons involved in the entertainment field. In spite of this depression in the industry, a number of projects were completed in 1980. The completion of. three locally owned facilities and one foreign owned, added 61 self-catering units and 12 double units to the number of available rooms and apartments. The construction of tourist recreation facilities added greater diversity to the facilities available. Government involvement in the tourist industry increased during the year and reflected the importance of the sector to the economy. Government purchased 50 per cent of the equity of a major hotel. Government policy has also assisted in the promotion of St, Lucia overseas. During the year, Government missions visited New York, Toronto and Frankfurt. At home, Government has actively pursued the improvement of tourist facilities and recreation sites. PRICES AND WAGES < The rate of inflation as measured by th.e annual average growth, rates of the retail price index rose by 19,5 per cent in .1980% This has been mainly due to the price increases of imports of fuel, the price of which, has risen 31 per cent since 1977. The items of food, clothing, services, show price increases of over 20 per cent between 1979 and 1980, Wage demands, particularly in the urban sector, continue to be made to combat the rising cost of living. are not available. Detailed information on wage increases ^ However, within the public sector wages accounted for 53 per cent of the Government's recurrent expenditure in 1979-1980 as opposed to 46 per cent in 1978-1979 and 45 per cent in 1977-1978, Employment ^ The economic decline for 1980 is reflected in increased unemployment. The Hurricane left thousands of St, Lucians without income for many months. Organizations involved in agriculture were severely affected. The Banana Growers' Association laid off large numbers of workers after heavy financial losses. The first of these were workers at the boxing plants which are spread throughout the island. as well. Truckers and casual labourers were affected Some employees at Geest estates were also laid off. The Windward < -11- Islands Packaging Company (WINERA) at Vieux Fort which manufactures corrugated cartons for the Windwards Banana Industry also temporarily ' laid off about one third of its 100 workforce. The closure of other establishments, both local and foreign, as a result of the general economic decline, has added to the rate of unemployment I for 1980. The oldest and largest retail outlet in the island closed down. In August, the last 162 employees received notices terminating their employment with the company. A number of foreign-owned companies including a Bank, ceased operations during the year, thus further ^ impacting on the worsened employment situation. MONETARY AND FISCAL ACTIVITIES St. Lucia does not have a Central Bank and therefore money supply ) is accounted for by the commercial banking system under the control of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Authority. Although the balance of both money and quasi-money increased in value in 1980, the figures reveal that the rate of growth of money supply has decreased. ) It is apparent that inflation is decreasing the growth rate of savings. The effect of inflation has also been to decrease the growth rate of demand deposits. During 1980, there has been an increase in credit for financing economic activity. The increased credit for agriculture and public utilities, however, must reflect the injection of capital in the posthurricane period, in those vital areas. The increased credit for tourism, reflects its construction activity within the year. ^ However, the pattern of the high percentage of credit allowed for personal loans persisted. Personal loans represented 32 per cent of total outstanding loans and advances. This is followed by the distributive trades which obtained 14 per cent, Manufacturing 13 ^ per cent, Government 8.7 per cent, Tourism 7.1 per cent. The Agricultural sector continued to record the lowest percentage of outstanding loans from the commercial banks. > ( < < I < ( < < i STATISTICAL APPENDIX ST, LUCIA 1980 I S T . LUCIA TABLE I SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES, 1977-1980 (EC$ Mill.) 1977 1978 Estimated 1979 1980 21.1 28.5 30.8 29.3 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.9 12.6 14.1 16.4 15.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 4.9 Construction 17.1 32.4 22.1 24.5 Wholesale and Retail Trade 23.1 27.7 34.7 34.1 8.6 13.2 17.1 18.2 Transport and Communication 12.2 12.8 16.6 16.4 Government Services 26.2 28.1 33.6 36.7 Banking, Insurance, Real Estate, including Rents 22.1 24.4 31.7 35.7 8.1 9.2 12.0 11.6 157.0 197.3 223,1 229.7 Agriculture, Fisheries, etc. Mining Manufacturing Electricity and Water Hotel and Restaurants Miscellaneous Services GDP at Factor Cost Source; World Bank Report, No. 2936-CRG. ** - 13 - ST. LUCIA TABLE II RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (cents per imperial gallon) 1/ Period — Gasolene Regular „ Kerosene Diesel oil Fuel Oil LPG Per 100 lbs. Premium 1977 2.50 1.77 2.15 48.00 1978 2.75 2.20 2.40 48.00 1979 3.68 3,21 3.48 70.00 1980 4.83 4,28 4,53 90.00 1/ Figures should be in respect of end of December in each year; otherwise specify period. S T . LUCIA TABLE III VQLUMEAND VALUE OF IMPORTS OF SELECTED HYDRO CARBONS Commodity Classification No. SITC Rev. 2 Crude Petroleum 331.01 Unit Litres Natural Gas Liquids 2/ Natural Gas — 341 Kilos Aviation Gasolene 332.11 Motor Gasolene 1979 Volume 400,0 1980 1/ Value Volume Value (EC$'000) (EC$'000) 5,5 - - 91.0 0.1 102.0 0.1 Litres 226,949.0 133.4 178,970.0 174.2 332.13 '000 Litres 16,223,9 7,596.1 11,768.6 8,489.1 Kerosene Illuminating 332.25 '000 Litres 1,548.8 608,2 813.0 541.3 Jet Fuel 332.21 '000 Litres 768,968,0 416,7 83,722.0 61.4 Diesel Oil and Gas Oil 332.3 '000 Litres 37,943.4 14,994.0 22,527.6 14,849.1 Other Fuel Oil (Bunker 'C') 332.41 '000 Litres 1,217.3 367.1 770.7 323.1 Other Gases (Hydrocarbons) 512.12 '000 Litres 2,070.5 1,399.5 1,009.6 1,258.3 Tj January - September, 1980 2/ Manufactured Source; Department of Statistics, St, Lucia ST. LUCIA TABLE IV EXPORTS OF GOODS (FOB) (EC$ '000) Jan-Sept Annual Growth Rates 1978 1979 32,705.3 36,503.1 28,372.3 21.9 973.8 913.3 556,4 9.3 88.1 45.6 9.7 32.7 - 48.2 Ginger 122.1 279.1 220.5 68.9 128.6 Coconut Meal 344.1 491.3 236.8 13.1 42.8 Coconuts 330.2 214.5 214.4 78.0 - 35.0 Coconut Oil (raw) 2,621.3 4,392.8 1,470.1 12.5 67.6 Coconut Oil (refined) 2,650.0 2,818.3 3,320.4 17.7 6.4 Bananas Cocoa Beans Nutmegs and Mace Source: 1980 Statistical Office, St. Lucia, and data supplied CEPAL. 1978 - 1979 11.6 - 6.2 1980 ST. LUCIA TABLE V TRADE BY SITC SECTIONS (EC$'000) Year 8 0 Total 1978 46,116.0 5,427.4 5,045.7 14,645.0 IMPORTS C.I.F. 1,865.7 18,575.4 54,672.1 58,546.9 18.440.5 134.4 223.469.1 1979 52,215.9 6,775.9 7.104.1 27,052,8 1,075.3 23,210.6 79,710.7 54,504.9 21,350.3 177.7 273.178.2 1980^ 43,676.9 6,140.9 6.093.2 27,001.7 460.7 22,720.4 55,921.5 59,190.2 18.974.6 81.2 240,262.0 EXPORTS OF DOMESTIC PRODUCE 1978 36,692.6 5,990.3 539.8 ... 5,409,4 604.4 8,617.5 283.1 6,876.0 0.5 67,013.6 1979 43,461.0 6,987.6 515.5 ... 7,211.2 796.9 7,842,3 2,277.9 6,504.7 2.0 75,599.0 1980^ 33,614.4 4,881.3 533.0 4,790.5 675.8 6,351.4 9,518.7 10,220.4 2.5 70,592.8 4.8 EXPORTS OF FOREIGN PRODUCE 64.0 12.0 195.4 660.4 3,342.0 989.7 6.0 5,375.8 182.2 98.3 33.7 147.1 1,233.4 7,600.3 1,217.0 23.5 10,535.5 171.8 94.7 11.3 193.3 12,706.4 16,219.2 1,657.4 3.6 31,057.8 1978 101.0 1979 1980^ 1/ 4.5 Preliminary data - January to September, Source: Statistical Office, St, Lucia. - 17 - ST. LUCIA ' TABLE V I TRADE BY MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS (EC$'000) i Trading Partners 1978 1979 1980 3/ EXPORTS BY DESTINATION U.K. 35,530.7 39,136.5 30,452.2 U.S.A. 2,329.4 6,936.0 26,099.9 CANADA 180.3 157.4 183.7 LATIN AMERICA 1/ 493.7 1,037.7 370.1 EEC - 311.1 660.6 523.8 30,836.6 33,946.6 27,634.0 2,707.6 4,259.7 15,586.0 72,389.4 86,134.5 101,650.7 CARICOM (ECCM) OTHERS TOTAL IMPORTS BY ORIGIN U.K. 43,443.1 45,316.1 38,107.0 U.S.A. 81,132.9 81,138.4 77,302.2 CANADA 7,949.2 10,757.9 9,568.7 11,134.4 4,564.8 LATIN AMERICA 1/ 9,745.7 R EEC - 14,664.1 16,651.6 11,692.7 CARICOM 37,966.7 54,853.6 53,955.3 53,326.2 45,071.3 273,178.2 240,262.0 (ECCM) • • • 28,567.4R OTHERS TOTAL 233,469.1 1/ Continental Latin America 3/ Period January to September 1980 Source: 2/ Excluding United Kingdom Statistical Office, St. Lucia ( ST. LUCIA TABLE VII TRADE WITH CARICOM COUNTRIES CEC$'000) IMPORTS DOMESTIC EXPORTS TOTAL EXPORTS u o u i i L r j - e s , 1978 1979 1980^ 1978 MDC's Barbados 5,554.1 7,292.0 8,009.9 Guyana 3,504.8 3,385.3 Jamaica 3,615.9 1979 1980^ 6,491.2 5,843.2 3,214,2 425,1 6,216.2 5,038.1 21,800.4 33,980.5 34,475.2 1978 1979 3,801.3 6,026.8 4,639.5 2,980.6 1,890.3 2,247.8 424.5 1,338.5 486.6 4,159.3 5,472,5 5,896.2 4,142.6 5,435.5 5,863.7 32,182.7 6,129,7 6,756,2 5,055,4 5,887.7 6,439.4 3,938.5 50,874,0 48,444,9 17,205,3 19,962.2 17,000.7 16,481.6 17,852.9 13,269.4 1,856.9 1,693.6 1,112.6 1,817.9 1,926.7 1,412.9 1,711.3 1,841.3 1,040.0 Dominica 561.1 740,9 1,017.6 4,657,5 3,723,4 3,919.7 4,493.0 3,406.6 3,287.1 Grenada 185.9 5.9 25,5 2,435,3 2,467.8 2,515.3 2,348.8 2,314.5 2,397.6 Montserrat 17.1 20,1 57.2 235,5 392.3 225,6 231.2 291.3 221.7 St. Kitts 210.9 475.7 192,9 242,2 375,0 278,7 222.7 280.0 268.6 Trinidad and Tobago Total MDC's: ECCM Antigua St. Lucia St. Vincent Total ECCM: Belize Total LDC's: TOTAL CARICOM: - - - - - - - - 1980^ - 659.6 1,043,1 2,837,0 4,242.9 5,098,7 2,247,1 3,918,9 4,622.9 1,976.5 3,491.5 3,979,3 5,242,8 13,631.3 13,983,9 10,599,3 12,925.9 12,756.6 9,191.5 3,491.5 37,966.7 0.3 3,979,6 54,853,6 271,6 5,514,4 53,959.3 13,631,3 0,5 13,984,4 33,946.6 10,599,3 27,600,0 12,925,9 29,407,5 12,756.6 30,609.5 9,191.5 22,460.9 1/ For period January-September 1980 30,836.6 Source: Statistical Office. St. Lucia i - 19 I ST. LUCIA TABLE VIII SELECTED MAJOR IMPORTS (EC$'000) Commodities 1978 , 1979 1980 - 176.2 123.9 60.2 175.2 123.9 59.4 11,553.6 14,442.7 10,208.6 4,710.0 2,836.4 5,345.2 627.1 931.1 3,552.5 Rice, not in husk 1,515.5 865.7 390.1 Fish and fish preparations 2,132.7 2,640.1 2,022.8 Milk and cream, all kinds 3,602.5 4,798.3 4,143.3 Coffee and Cocoa powder 842.5 1,088.6 557.5 Butter, fresh and salted 755.5 850.8 590.6 Margarine and Lard 1,566.3 744.0 826.2 Sugar, refined 2,030.6 1,023.6 1,974.4 Alcoholic beverages 3,916.2 5,138.5 4,247.7 Tobacco, unmanufactured 556.0 584.0 891.2 Cigarettes 682.7 779.7 638.0 12,516.3 24,116.3 26,999.7 Fertilizers, manufactured 2,276.8 3,538,4 2,179.2 Rubber tyres for cars, trucks, buses 1,641.6 1,606.4 1,559.9 Cotton piece goods 212.2 241.7 1,176.1 Artificial, silk piece goods it• » • • Live animals chiefly for food Poultry, live Meat and meat preparations Poultry, killed or dressed Meal and flour of wheat Motor spirits and fuel oils 8.3 Passenger road motor vehicles 11,861.7 16,786.8 11,581.8 Clothing, outwear not knitted 1,470.7 1,854.6 1,212.9 Footwear 2,430.2 3,272.7 2,698.9 Refrigerators, mechanical selfcontained units 1,543.4 1,777.4 1,244.5 122.6 112.3 216.1 Vegetable oil \J Period January to September Source: Statistical Office, St. Lucia / l ST. LUCIA TABLE IX TOURISM 1978 * P 1979 143,071 142,255 115,964 Stop-over visitors in hotel 75,033 87,906 57,582 Cruise-ship visitors 68,038 54,349 58,382 Total visitors Of which: 1980 1/ Average length of stay in hotels (days) 72.4 1/ Occupancy rate Number of hotel and Guest and Apartment Rooms 63.8 1,230 Number of hotel and Guest house beds 83.5 2,822 Number of new hotels Number of new Guest-houses Total Tourist Expenditure (EC$'000) Stop-over visitors expenditure 21,993 23 770 Intransit visitors expenditure Of which: 680 543 610 269 107 196 3,200 2,793 Yacht Number of cruise-ship calls Number of yachts calling Number employed in Hotels E 2,500 * For periods less than one year; please specify period and if estimated or preliminary data. JL/ January to August 1980. Source : Statistical Department, the St. Lucia Tourist Board, and the St. Lucia Hotels Association, St. Lucia. ST. LUCIA TABLE X RETAIL PRICE INDEX (April 1964 = 100) Items 1977 1978 1979 ^I 1980^-' Annual Growth Rates 1978 1979 1980 % VARIATION DECEMBER TO DECEMBER All Items 348.0 378.0 436.2 530.2 8.6 15.4 21.6 Food 374.0 403.5 464.1 568.5 7.9 15.0 22.5 Drink and Beverages 282.4 306.7 405.1 443.9 8.6 32.1 9.6 Housing 340.3 406.7 413.3 494.3 19.5 1.6 19.6 Fuel and Light 304.8 307.2 491.5 648.0 0.8 60.0 31.8 Household and Miscellaneous 376.3 405.9 470.6 507.5 7.9 15.9 7.8 Clothing and Footwear 274.5 299.5 326.4 406.3 9.1 9.0 24.5 Services 316.6 332.1 342.4 433.3 4.9 3.1 26.6 10.0 10.3 19.5 ANNUAL AVERAGE VARIATIONS - ALL ITEMS 332.6 1/ 365.7 Provisional Figures Source: Statistical Office, St. Lucia 403.5 482.3 S T . LUCIA TABLE X I MONETARY BALANCE OF COMMERCIAL BANKS (EC$'000) Balance at end of Annual Growth Rates 1977 1978 1979 ,980 3: 6. ,175 7 ,371 Demand Deposits 19 ,773 ; ,846 23. Total 23, ,753 Time deposits 1980 1978 1979 1980 ,569 8: 55. ,2 .4 19. 16. ,1 29 ,986 ,928 33, 20. .6 .7 25. .1 13. 30, ,021 37 ,357 42. ,497 26, .4 .4 24. .8 13. 34, ,046 46, ,445 53 ,335 64, ,589 36. .4 14. .8 21. ,1 Saving Deposits 48. ,423 55, ,209 67 ,221 73 ,646 14, .0 .8 21, .6 9, Total Quasi Money 82. ,469 ,654 101. 120 ,556 ,235 138. 23, .3 18. .6 14. .7 106, ,222 131 ,675 157 ,913 180 ,732 24, .0 .0 20, 14, .5 Money: Cash (Mx) Quasi Money: Total Money Supply Source: Commercial Banking Statistics, Dec. 1980, Research Department, ECCA. ST. LUCIA TABLE XII COMMERCIAL BANKS CREDIT - SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION (EC$'000) Balance at end of Annual Growth Rates 1978 1979 8,715 51.8 - 46.7 103.6 22,349 23,289 32.2 13.7 4.2 19,562 23,326 26,797 5.3 19.2 14.9 9,030 9,578 9,534 12,752 6.1 0.5 33.8 Transport 8,740 9,976 11,974 12,247 14.1 20.0 2.3 Public Utilities (gas, electricity, telephone) 1,775 2,459 1,037 2,393 38.5 - 57.8 130.8 Building and Construction 8,576 9,745 9,827 9,871 13.6 0.8 0.4 Government and Other Statutory Bodies 9,992 9,256 19,615 15,557 - 7.4 111.9 - 20.7 Personal Loans 24,938 32,202 42,316 57,075 29.1 31.4 34.9 Other Advances 4,630 6,980 8,331 9,889 50.8 19.4 18.7 106,433 127,447 152,590 178,585 19.7 19.7 17.0 28.3 32.2 37.3 36.0 13.8 15.8 1977 1978 1979 5,288 8,027 4,281 Manufacturing 14,878 19,662 Distributive Trades 18,586 Tourism Agriculture Total Loans and Advances Percentage of Long-term Loans to Total Loans Source: 1980 Data supplied „Commercial Banking Statistics, Dec. 1980, Research Department, ECCA. - 1980 - 3.5 PART XIII VINCENT COUNTRY NOTES ( i i ( i ( i i ( ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 ST. VINCENT—^ (East Caribbean dollars used throughout)— During the years 1976-1980, economic performance in St. Vincent has tended to fluctuate. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged approximately 6.3 percent in 1976 and 1977, rising to an estimated 15 percent in 1978 when the highest level of economic activity was recorded. Official figures are not available for 1979 and 1980. However, a severe setback in the form of the eruption of La Soufriere Volcano in April 1979 resulted in a decline in overall economic performance, agricultural production being the hardest hit for that year. Efforts made by the Government in 1980 to restore economic growth to pre-1979 levels have met with limited success but economic performance is estimated to have been satisfactory, real GDP possibly increasing by about 5 percent. Agriculture, the mainstay of the Vincentian economy, has continued to contribute an estimated 20 percent of total GDP despite the mixed performance displayed by this sector over the past five years. The pattern followed is similar to that experienced by changes in total GDP. In 1978 the most significant increase in agricultural production was recorded but the following year this sector experienced a 40 percent decline in output. most severely affected. Bananas, the major crop, was the The hurricane of 1980 caused a slight decrease in agricultural production. All indications for 19B1"' suggest a reason- able level of output within this sector. The Manufacturing, Construc- tion and Tourism sectors have remained in the preliminary stages of development, making a small but steadily increasing contribution to total GDP, particularly since 1979. 1/ Prior to 1980, St. Vincent's economic performance was included in the West Indies Associated States Country Notes. 2/ US$1.00 = EC$2.70. < - 2 The Public Sector Investment programme initially implemented by the i Government in 1979/1980 focused on the expansion and development of key sectors of the economy in an effort to generate employment and economic growth and provide for the fundamental needs of the population. Within the Agricultural sector, the programme involved a strong agricultural < extension thrust, the distribution of land to small farmers and the availability of more credit in an attempt to eliminate the problem of poor agronomic practices on the part of peasant farmers who have played the dominant role in the development of agriculture. The encouragement * of the establishment of co-operatives is intended to combat the problems of marketing and storage. Emphasis was also placed upon improved infrastructural facilities throughout the crucial areas of the economy. ( This has been evident in the dynamism displayed within both the Public and Private sectors of the construction industry. The diversification of the economic base is also an important part of the entire programme« I The crop diversification programme aims at increasing vegetable and tree crop production. The Government embarked upon the rehabilitation of arrowroot and bananas as another major area of the Public Sector Investment Programme following the volcanic eruption. ' The programme met with limited success as yields remained below projected levels. However, this has been compensated for, to a certain extent, by the higher prices obtained for agricultural exports in 1980 as compared with previous years. * Additional public credit has been extended to certain priority areas, particularly agriculture and industry. Unfortunately, this has not been adequate to meet the growing demand caused by increased sectoral activity. Expanding heavy capital outlays have resulted in the continued reliance by the Government on external funding through capital grants and concessional loans. I i » - 3 - i AGRICULTURE Agriculture, the mainstay of the Vincentian economy^ has accounted for approximately 20 percent of total GDP in recent years, despite reductions in the value of agriculture GDP, particularly during the * last two years, 1979 and 1980. Growth in the Agriculture sector has been retarded by several factors. ^ These include natural disasters, diseases sometimes the result of poor agronomic practices on the part of small farmers who have played the dominant role in the development of agriculture, the lack of guaranteed marketing outlets, inadequate transportation and feeder roads for peasant farmers. ^ However, despite the decrease in volume of agricultural production, there has been an increase in terms of current value because of higher prices in 1980. The banana sub-sector has been the major contributor to agricultural GDP, contributing over 50 percent of total export earnings. The largest output of bananas was recorded in 1978 with a 14 percent increase over production levels for the previous year. The fall in production levels by 12.4 percent in 1979 below that of the 1978 figure resulted in a drastic decline in revenue accruing to the agricultural sector. Full year data for 1980 are not yet available but banana pro- duction is being rapidly restored to normal levels. I This improvement in the industry has been made possible by way of a rehabilitation programme involving prompt and efficient measures which commenced shortly after the devastation of the volcano. > Arrowroot The island continues to hold a virtual monopoly of international trade in arrowroot despite the fact that there has been a considerable decline in production levels since the 1960's, particularly over the ^ past five years. This downward trend has been evident in the substantial reduction in output of arrowroot starch. Although data are not yet available for - 4 - 1980, a further notable decline in production is expected. The production/supply of arrowroot has not been adequate to meet demand, as large quantities are required for the manufacture of computer stationery. Consequently, at the same time, prices have risen fairly rapidly during the last three years. The drawbacks to the industry continue to be the shortage of labour at the reaping stage, competition of other crops for the use of land, and bottlenecks at the manufacturing stage. Other Agriculture Lack of full year data for 1980 prevents definitive statements about 3/ the performance of Other Agriculture,- but indications are that a mixed performance continued to be experienced in these crops, with a general downward trend having been observed. Production of tobacco has increased since 1978 in response to the decline in production of the commodity in Trinidad and Tobago and the consequent demand from a manufacturer of cigarettes in that country. Acreages under tobacco have accordingly increased. Renewed interest in the sugar industry was registered with the acquisition by Government of plant and machinery to produce sugar for domestic consumption. The livestock sub-sector continues to be small, mainly because of the high cost of feedstuffs. The implementation of a feed mill should assist in containing the cost of production and should result in an expanded activity. Government Agricultural Policy Following the recent natural disaster, Government moved to rehabilitate the sector to pre-1979 levels. At the core of this effort was a strong agricultural extension effort which gained the support of several international agencies, both technical and financial. 3/ This is defined to include ground provisions, coconuts, mace and nutmegs, ginger, peanuts, tobacco, sugar cane, livestock and fishing. - 5 Government has moved to re-distribute land in favour of small farmers through the purchase and re-distribution of unused private estates. A longer and more secure tenure will foster the increased cultivation of tree crops. Other Government initiatives in Agriculture include the extension of credit to small farmers and the encouragement of cooperatives to deal with the problem of storage and marketing. Manufacturing The Manufacturing sector has not developed substantially over the past five years. It has made a small but increasing contribution to total GDP, particularly during the last three years. In 1978, output grew significantly because of the establishment of a new flour mill and boxing plant, the sector's contribution to GDP rising from 7 to 12 percent. The following year, an estimated 14 percent of total GDP accrued to the Manufacturing sector. The expansion of the Industrial sector, particularly since 1979, is intended to stimulate economic growth, and alleviate the problem of unemployment to a considerable extent, most emphasis being placed on the production of imported materials for re-export mainly to the North American market. During 1979/1980, factories for the production of garments, electronic equipment, yachts, corrugated cardboard and industrial gloves were established, as well as a dairy products factory. Over the years, the majority of industries have been agro-based although much effort has been made to diversify the Manufacturing sector, particularly since 1979. The principal sub-sectors within the industrial sectors have continued to be arrowroot starch and coconut meal while there was increased production of coconut oil and flour. The latter has shown significant progress, registering a growth rate of 51 percent in 1979 above the 1978 total. Considerable quantities of flour have been exported to the Eastern Caribbean. 4/ Flour production commenced in December 1977, ( - 6 Construction 4 The construction industry continued in 1980 to make a small but growing contribution to the total GDP. This has been due to the dynamism displayed in both the Public and Private sectors of the industry - a result of the effort diverted towards the development of the crucial areas of the economy by the government since 1979. ^ Construction oriented towards the development of the Agriculturally based industrial sector included the arrowroot factory, a dairy plant and a sugar factory as well as the agricultural feeder road programme which is currently in progress. ^ Major strides have been made in the improvement of transportation facilities over the' last three years. In July 1978, Phase I of the Windward Highway reconstruction project commenced. Its goal is the < improved access of villages and agricultural areas to the capital and the port. Improvement of the social infrastructure has taken the form of an extension to the hospital and several school projects which began in late 1980. ^ The second phase of the programme is expected to commence in January 1981. Funds for the repair of homes damaged during the volcanic eruption were granted during 1979. Satisfactory progress has been made in the Aided Self-Help Housing project which is intended to foster the < spirit of self-reliance. Much emphasis was placed upon tourism-cum-construction during 1979-1980 in the form of additional tourist accommodation and the Fort Charlotte renovation project still in progress. Data for the private * sector have not been obtained. Further improvement in the social infrastructure and transport sector, in particular, is expected in 1980/1981. The feasibility of low-cost pre-fabricated wooden houses for sale to the lower and middleincome groups is being considered. It is anticipated that the Construction sector will have a strong impact on the economy, contributing indirectly to the growth of GDP within its key sectors. I - 7 PRICES On the basis of the Retail Price Index, the maximum rates of inflation were recorded in 1979 and 1980 respectively at 15.6 percent above the 1978 level and 17.2 percent above the previous year's level. These significant increases are attributable to the escalation of oil prices above the already high prices existing during the 1976-1978 period and to a lesser extent, the greater volume and value of imports of raw materials, capital and intermediate goods required for the expansion and rehabilitation of the infrastructure throughout all sectors of the economy since 1979. The inflationary effect of oil prices was clearly revealed in the Retail Price Index as fuel and light proved to be the major contributor to price rises in 1980, registering the highest rate of increase of 34.6 percent over the 1979 level. Fuel and light displayed another marked increase of 30.3 percent in 1979, the second highest rise for that year above that of 1978. In 1980, housing also exerted much influence on price increases by way of a 27.8 percent growth rate above the 1979 level. MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY Money and Banking Monetary statistics for the five-year period, 1976-1980, are limited. However, data available reveal that, in December 1979 commercial banks' deposits totalled $102.9 million of which 24.8 percent or $25.5 million accrued to the National Commercial Bank. Increased governmental activity evident in the development of key sectors of the economy since 1979 has stimulated a growing demand for credit which governmental sources are unable to accommodate although public credit facilities have been expanded to certain priority areas, particularly agriculture and industry. Information outlining commercial banks' credit to various sectors is unavailable for 1979 and 1980. However, adequate data for 1976-1978 indicate - 8 - that most credit was directed towards the distributive trades and personal loans. In 1977, less emphasis was placed on the distributive trades with increased focus on the government sector. Throughout the three-year period (1976-1978) agriculture and tourism seem to have received little credit, judging from the loans outstanding. Loans to the Manufacturing sector rose by 522,2 percent in 1977 above the 1976 figure but this accounted for only 12.3 percent of the total, A slight rate of increase of 13.7 percent above that of 1977 occurred in 1978. Public Finance The steady growth in total revenue has not been adequate to meet the increase in total expenditure and alter the persistent deficit position. Data for 1978/1979 are incomplete. a fixed surplus of $835,000. Draft estimates for 1980/1981 suggest However, it is suspected that a surplus may not be attained due to two factors:i) ii) sufficient revenue may not be ri-eceived from external sources; and despite the anticipated increase in GDP, economic activity may not increase significantly. Recurrent revenue recorded the highest growth rate of 19.1 percent in 1978/1979, greater than that of 1977/1978. This was largely attributed to the additional receipts received from income tax and import duties, A 13 percent rise over the estimated figure for 1978/1980 is expected during 1980/1981. The components of recurrent revenue have experienced an overall increase with the exception of 1979/1980 when there was a mixed performance. Income tax and export duties registered a fall in earnings while consumption tax, import duties and other taxes increased marginally. The major contributor to recurrent revenue over the period 1976 to 1980 was import tax. The Income Tax Act was amended in 1979/1980 with the intention of distributing income in favour of salaried workers. 9 Recurrent expenditure has increased over the past five yearss except for 1980/1981 when estimates indicated a slight reduction of 3.3 percent. Capital expenditure has acquired a larger share of total expenditure over the past five yearss ranging from 38.8 percent in 1977/1978 to 48 percent in 1979/1980 and finally, 53.6 percent in 1980/1981 over the figures for the previous years. This may be attributed to increasingly heavy capital outlays, particularly since 1979, due to the expansion and development of infrastructural facilities throughout the crucial areas of the economy coupled with rehabilitation programmes, all outlined under the Public Sector Investment Programme. Consequently, the government has remained heavily dependent on capital grants and concessional loans to finance its development programme. ENERGY In recent years, energy policy has focused upon the provision of additional generation» Capacity is to be expanded from 3 units of 1»2 megawatts to 5 units of 1.2 megawatts and more reliable thermal capacity as well as the development of wine and micro hydro-power stations. A micro-hydro pilot project is currently being established with a proposed capacity of 40 kilowatts, mainly to operate an arrowroot factory, the surplus power to be sold to a neighbouring village. Another hydro-power project involving two sites with a capacity of 1.5 megwatts each, is to be studied. Due to the extremely high and rising cost of imported petroleum and petrochemicals, efforts have been directed towards the utilization of alternative energy sources. It is envisaged that solar power will be used for heating water for house use in the future. A biogas sub- project which forms a part of a major livestock project is expected to begin in the second half of 1981 and a wind pilot project is currently being analysed. - 10 ' •r1 -. - • -THE EXTERNAL SECTOR ' " '' -v • ' '• Tourism Tourism has continued to contribute, i^iodestly to total GDP over the past five years. Total visitor arrivals have .displayed;an upward trend, accompanied by a marked increase in the rate,of growth,.except for 1979 when a mere 13 percent rise over the. 1978..figure.was recorded. The.-_ s t e a d y increase, in visitor arrivals was largely the result of, promotion campaigns conducted throughout Europe and North .America* The number of stop-over visitors in hotels has tended to fluctuate during the five-year period. A "marked improvement of" 2 $.'3 percent above the 1979 figure was 'recorded in'"1^80.' ' Information relating to visitor air arrivals is restricted to the period 1978-1980. A significant increase of .21 percent was registered in 1979 over the 1978 figure of 35,249. In.1980, about 50,000 intransit tourist air arrivals were estimated.. The number.of cruise-ship visitors has grown steadily during the past five years, .with the exception of 1979. During 1979/1980, emphasis was placedqoh the construction of ; • additional tourist accommodation. . There-exists..{a government tax on hotels of five or more; .rooms and meals in restaurants'attached to the hotels at the rate ofi^S.-.{percent -of the -total, value. ..; , i . -T o u r i s t ' receipts "grew significantly"in ¿978 by'89.8 percent over the 1977 aggregate. Although no data are available for 1979 and 1980, an increase in total tourist expenditure for 1980 and 1979, the former exceeding the latter, is indicated .by-:the 28..3 percent rise in total, visitors, in .1980. .as .well; as the general jprice .-increase. • - :. > The majij'r p r o b l e m c o n f r o n t i n g "tke " t o u r i s t " i n d u s t r y in St. Vincent is that o f 'transportation. The L e e w a r d l f s i a n < f e ' j i i r - " ' i r ^ n s p o r t ' ( L l A T ) " , the " : principal carrier, is "deficient'in the size of its 'fleet (particularly during the peak summer and winter months). The entire budget for tourism, below half a million U.S. dollars^is inadequate for promotion on a larger scale as well as the provision of other facilities. This sector also - 11 suffer&. -fRom a-shi>rtfage'.of-skilled personnel:. . c? In an effort to overcome- the; problems- facing the industry,. - 1 trainings seminars b e n 3 i l : . for-.^hose employed: 'in the .ig|e.d. industry- at; all (levels,-.. Cs^^rtmentjof. .Zourism,v through St. Vincent Tourist Board has established two sub-committees to study:i) r , T ' ? . . C T ; r1 --i V '> " ' rc .- ' \' : ' The Developments of Cultural Attrac tions; and ii) The Development of Mysicai Attractions'^ - fV i J r F j - ? ?J . :•> • "' Trade and the Balance of Payments : ri—.'gi^.Ljc! J • :•. .. - : .. • . .' Data on the Balance of Payments for the entire five-year span (1976-1980) are unavailable* However, information has been provided for the period 1978-1980.r ^ ,t The current account ..'deficitcsinereased substantially from $5.4 million in 1978 to.$42.1 Bi±lli6noinnl979"and^was projected-to be $24.3 million in .1980s,' ./Aihighernfifgure:-is expected for 1980 as the economy has not "yet.-b?eQi;iestiare'd£;to. pre^-19?9 growth levels although it is anticipated that nthis-^figure ' will be cushioned 'by higher net inflows on the current account due to the^28 percent rise in number of stop-over visitors over the 1979 total. Over the years, the adverse balance on the current account has largely been financed by external sources of loans and grant funds. The acute inbalance on merchandise trade may be attributed to the fact that export earnings were outstripped by foreign exchange outflows for imported goods. The latter has been strongly influenced by certain structural factors, above all, the marked openness of the economy. There has been a steep rise in the volume of imports of raw materials, capital and intermediate goods for the development of the infrastructure in the construction, manufacturing and agricultural industries and to a lesser extent, food and manufactured goods for the expanding tourism sector. Moreover, the cost of imports, particularly petroleum products and petrochemicals, has escalated, as the transnational corporations respond to OPEC's _ 12 d e c i s i o n t o r a i s e o i l p r i c e s and o b t a i n a l a r g e r s h a r e o f o i l revenues. I n 1 9 7 7 , t h e v a l u e o f i m p o r t s r o s e b y 32 p e r c e n t a b o v e t h e 1976 f i g u r e t o about 81.9 m i l l i o n . F o r e i g n exchange outflows f o r imports 1980 c l i m b e d s t e e p l y b y 149 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e 1976 t o t a l t o a f i g u r e a p p r o x i m a t e l y $154.6 in of million. On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e v e n u e f r o m e x p o r t s i n c r e a s e d f r o m about 2 4 . 7 m i l l i o n i n 1976 t o a m e r e 4 2 . 8 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 8 0 , a 74 p e r c e n t rise. A s l i g h t r e v i v a l o f t h e E x p o r t s e c t o r o c c u r r e d i n 1980 w i t h a n i n c r e a s e i n e x p o r t e a r n i n g s o f 7 . 5 p e r c e n t m o r e t h a n 1979 f i g u r e s a s s i g n s recovery were evident i n the A g r i c u l t u r a l sector to programmes of rehabilitation implemented. In general, t r a d e has been o r i e n t e d towards the U n i t e d Kingdom, CARICOM a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a , i n t h a t o r d e r a n d all i n d i c a t i o n s p o i n t t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h i s r e m a i n e d t h e same f o r 1980. T h e b u l k o f t r a d e w i t h CARICOM h a s b e e n c o n d u c t e d w i t h t h e M D C ' s , m a i n l y T r i n i d a d and Tobago. F u r t h e r expansion of t r a d e w i t h the LDC's and n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l markets i n c l u d i n g M a r t i n i q u e , A n t i g u a and t h e B r i t i s h V i r g i n I s l a n d s , has been hampered b y an inadequate s e r v i c e and h i g h f r e i g h t rates. shipping STATISTICAL APPENDIX ST» VINCENT 1980 < ( < I I I I I ST. VINCENT TABLE I GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT FACTOR COST (EC$ Mill.) 1976 1977 1978 1979 14.0 11.5 13.6 10.2 Mining and quarrying 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 Manufacturing 4.4 5.3 8.6 Electricity and water supply 2.1 2.5 Construction 7.7 Wholesale and retail trade Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1980 1977 18.3 -25.0 - 50.0 -50.0 9.7 20.5 62.3 2.5 3.1 19.0 - 24.0 9.1 9.0 9.8 18.2 -1.1 8.9 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 2.1 2.0 1.0 Hotels and restaurants 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 8.3 23.1 12.5 Transport 6.0 7.2 8.0 8.6 20.0 11.1 7.5 Communications 3.8 3.8 5.9 4.3 - 55.2 -27.1 Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 9.7 9.9 12.0 12.6 21.2 5.0 Other services 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 4.2 8.0 Government services 13.7 14.9 15.5 16.4 8.8 4.0 5.8 LESS Imputed banking service charges -3.7 -4.1 -4.6 -5.1 -10.8 -12.2 -10.9 TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 71.1 74.0 84.5 83.8 4.1 14.2 -0.8 ... 12.8 Source: -17.9 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 2.1 - ... National Accounts of St. Vincent 1975 to 1979. UN/CARICOM Statistics Project, CARICOM Secretariat, Guyana, December 1980. . .. .. . ... 0 0 0 ST. VINCENT TABLE II EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (EC$ Mill.) 1976 Final Consumption Expenditure 1977 85.2 1979 a) Government 19.1 b) Private 66. 1980 1977 ... 27.2 ••• 30.8 ••• 20.5 ••• 1978 7.3 ••• •• 0 • • • 32.6 ••• 13.2 •*• • • e 26.5 27.8 34.1 55.0 4.9 22.7 0.7 2.6 1.9 2.6 271.4 -26.9 36.8 24.7 26.8 44.0 39.8 8.5 64.2 -9.5 -62.0 -81.9 -97.7 -125.2 -32.1 -19.3 -28.1 Increases in Stocks Exports of Goods LESS Imports of Goods Exports of services including tourist expenditure less imports of services 17.6 TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1/ Estimate based on Household Budget Survey 1976. \ • •• 17.1 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Source: Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 National Accounts of St. Vincent 1975 to 1979. UN/CARICOM Statistics Project, CARICOM Secretariat, Guyana, December 1980. ST. VINCENT TABLE AGRICULTURAL III PRODUCTION Commodity Unit 2/ Arrowroot starch^ Tonnes Bananas '000 Tonnes Carrots Tonnes 1980^ 1976 1977 1978 1979 791.1 833.7 845.1 699.5 ... 31.4 28.6 32.6 28.6 16.9 825.6 343.8 410.1 289.4 236.0 Ginger i t 793.3 569.3 868.6 1195.4 Mace H 28.1 20.9 16.8 21.0 ... Nutmegs H 171.5 121.6 101.6 92.0 117.3 Peanuts i t 66.7 20.4 68.5 68.0 Sweet Potatoes t i 2136.0 734.4 1584.4 1451.9 1227.2 2/ Tobacccr- t t 12.6 38.2 72.9 86.4 Yams, Tannias and Eddoes t i 2632.7 3326.7 3083.9 Coconuts (dry) '000 nuts 2109.7 000 O00 1/ Data relate to period January to June. 2/ Crop year. Source; Digest of Statistics for the year 1979. No. 29. Statistical Unit, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, West Indies and Agricultural Statistics Unit, Ministry of Trade and Agriculture. 14296.4 000 0 00 0 0 0 6332.0 ST. VINCENT TABLE IV INDICATORS OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION! Manufacturing Products Rum Units 1976 Farine Flour^- c i l 4 24V 5 322.8 313.7 45.4 Coconut Oil (Refined) " 1979 Tonnes •. Coconut Meal % 1978 450.1 '000 litres 1977 ' K O dl t VO '00.0 tonnes K. 683.8 ! 525.5 a- U !v M O •-< 4£_b: "i a » 00 U. h- I i " V h * r\: rr* s. ; u. t p 1/ Export^ W i iC j ? o >! M P* ? • 2/ FlQur^ Production smarted in December 1977. 80.8 1980 26.5 1/ 690.9 "670.2 324.4 lO 2 'V < x -iSì li! l ì SBurc.e:tìÀgricult-ural: Statistics Unit, Ministry of Trade and 8 *- e ? .Agriculture, I 8 December 1978, and data supplied CEP AL. , - W D 3 ! V (C !P i Sr s> t; ST. VINCENT TABLE V SELECTED DATA ON TOURISM 1976 1977 Total visitors 33,545 39,844 1/ 56,137-/ 63,440^' 92,233-/ Of which: Stop-over visitors in hotel 17,953 18,200 10,310 10,438 Cruise ship visitors 13,887 20,478 20,888 8 9 Average length of stay in hotels (days) 1978 • 474 ' 1 o e 18.8 40.9 13.0 45.4 13,387 1.4 -43.4 1.2 28.3 20,726 42,479 47.5 2.0 -0.8 105.0 7 7 12.5 -44.4 40.0 0.0 775 983 ... 3.9 26.8 . .. O • 9 498 517 1 1 No. of new Guest Houses Total Tourist Expenditure (EC$ Mill.) Of which: 0 12.5 14.7 27.9 o«o •©o . ,. o e e o 3 3.8 ... 0.0 0.0 200.0 .. . 17.6 o 0 4 0 0 O S O 89.8 46 25 19 No. of yachts calling 338 749 357 375 425 0 0 0 .O 0 35.3 -45.7 -24 o 0 121.6 -52,3 -22.1 0 o 278 No. employed in hotels .. . - . .. C O O « 34 0 ... o 25 c o o 0 13.3 1/ Includes guest houses, apartments and private homes. Source; - 9 Yacht No. of cruise ship calls 5.1 0 - 0 « 0 3 e o o Stop-over visitors Intransit visitors Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 5 No. of Hotel and Guest House beds No. of new hotels 1977 1980 746 Occupancy rate No. of Hotel and Guest House rooms 1979 Ministry of External Affairs and Tourism, St, Vincent and the Grenadines, 0 0 0 31.6 ST. VINCENT TABLE VI EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND BALANCE ON VISIBLE TRADE 1976-1980 (EC$*000) Year Imports Exports 1976 62,020 24,651 23,673 978 -37,369 1977 81,923 26,999 24,885 2,114 -54,924 1978 97,678 44,316 42,100 2,216 -53,362 1979 125,202 39,825 38,156 1,669 -85,377 1980 154,558 42,825 40,545 2,280 -111,733 Source: Domestic Exports Re-Exports Statistical Unit, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Trade Balance ST, VINCENT TABLE VII TRADE WITH CARICOM COUNTRIES IMPORTS 1978 1979 1977 1980 TOTAL EXPORTS 1978 1979 1977 1980 1977 DOMESTIC-EXPORTS 1978 1979 1981 MDC's Barbados 3,434,300 3,772,835 1,547,124 3,571,034 Guyana 3,819,763 3,920,992 12,782 162,169 Jamaica 1,788,009 1,805,844 86,292 53,907 13,047,969 12,035,754 0 ... 4,907,664 7,733,469 Total MDC's 22,090,041 21,535,425 o o o 0 6,553,862 11,520,579 T'dad and Tobago • e o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 ,460,522 3,247,964 0 0 155,044 0 100 53,907 3 ,550,146 Q O 2,655 0 0 0 6,555,434 5 ,013,423 10,012,349 0 0 0 « 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... ECCM Antigua 162,727 482,493 0 0 0 43,422 1,661,140 12,360 1,627,492 e o o Dominica 428,426 556,114 O 0 o 118,236 1,857,585 94,525 1,799,366 o s o 60,329 12,828 0 0 9 0 0 0 327,042 635,177 202,764 465,224 0 5,445 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,992 204,882 4,000 204,632 St, Kitts 26,242 54,645 0 0 0 64,589 1,531,949 0 0 0 e o o 3,579 1,526,777 St« Lucia 5,027,867 4,473,122 0 O o 335,257 887,749 0 0 0 0 191,754 718,138 Grenada Montserrat Sto Vincent - - 0 0 0 5,705,591 5,584,647 0 0 0 0 0 5,705,591 5,584,647 0 Total- CARICCM27 „795,632 27,120,072 0 Total ECCM Belize Total LDC's Source: 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 894,538 6,778,482 o e • 500 0 0 0 0 895,038 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 e o o - 6,341,629 3,194 0 3,194 6,781,676 508,982 6,344,823 5 ,522,405 16,357,172 7,448,900. .18,302,255 Statistical Unit, St, Vincent and the Grenadines» 0 0 0 © 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e o 0 0 c 0 - 508,982 0 0 0 ST. VINCENT TABLE VIII SELECTED AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (EC$'000) T Commodities Arrowroot ' 1976: 1,145 .0 Bananas 1977 1978 • 1979 : Annual Growth. Rate 1977 " 1978 197-9 ' 1980P Carrots 3.2 170.8 .8 • 31• , ,2 • 32, Co't'bnut Oil 4-24.033 407, .0 Coconuts " *T .' ' '0d(-' ' " • J Ganger -t-^r^x 642 . 2 Mace 110 .0 -51.6 393 .0? i' d 575, !ilp,1 3 " 0 .0" '4; . . , 'I , o c . :-r r ^ . OC- O... v ' V .. 499 *h .. 350, ,8 . öV - . c,T7. , ^ - ; . 338 . , .0, Sweet Potatoe's '1' ' *• r ' Source: 1,060, ,5 .8 859 "• ? 326 .0 / 176, .9 ' '} o 200 .0-e ; 3 -147, Nutmegs 28. ,3 15. 7 .0 351, , r, , - . - ; 43, , : i- " 5 >,8 : ,3 1 ,894 „7 .1,784, .7 . ; 290.3 2, 725 .0 " Cocoa Beans 1980 14,632 „0 15,107, 19 ,933 .0 15,883. 5 16,836.3 .0 . ' ' " 1,325, .0 ' 6. .0 -45j .7 .4 3, -7, .1 V• C '" " ,-f L.-3 , y ; 21, ^ - 2 6 , 5 .1 .4 -4.Ò " ^ -3, * * 1 ,569. 8„ i1.410, 4 -JL 500..4 . • . . 0 ' ?:ò V' " 1 sJPT) T7 460 'éo A, 3 ' 1 • 97 .0 115, ,0 106.0 -28.2 286, .0 266 . Or - .0 343. 394.0 - -15.-A-o 477, ,0 971 '.iti 920, • ' • r» t " "' 321:6 Is "* Digest off Statistics, 1979, No. 29 Statistical Unit, St. Vincent and and the Grenadines and data supplied CEPAL. .3 .0 ...65,1 _ 48, -10. 2 • * e1C 0 ; " - v' ?*^ • . . I2h{7"f 31 ,2 .r., 25,2 79, .0 fi 31. " -20. ,9' .3 -44.5 22. ,8 18, ,6 " f .0 : . . : 2 8 * .6 103, .2 97, 6, .4 - .8 -7, 14, .9 ,;2 ' 43, ,6 - 21 ST. - VINCENT TABLE IX CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MARCH 1964 = 100) Group Weight 1976 1977 1978 1980 1979 ANNUAL AVERAGES 1000 290.2 319.8 346.8 400,9 469.9 Food 551.6 Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco 53.1 Housing 110.9 Fuel and Light 64.0 Household and Miscellaneous Items 54.0 Clothing and Footwear 69.4 Services 97.0 277.6 332.0 354.4 397.8 455.0 246.4 279.4 262.7 270.9 294.3 284.4 309.0 307.6 349.1 357.0 353.7 454.9 408.1 452.2 612.4 309.1 293.5 261.2 388.8 321.6 314.8 428.7 360.0 309.4 480.0 482.3 360.2 565.4 529.5 419.7 TOTAL: All Items ANNUAL AVERAGE CHANGE TOTAL: 11.3 All Items Food Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco Housing Fuel and Light Household and Miscellaneous Items Clothing and Footwear Services 10.2 8.4 15.6 17.2 3.1 19.6 6.7 12.2 14,4 9.9 9.6 4.5 9.9 5.3 8.3 14.1 4.5 22.7 15.5 15,0 30.3 14.3 27.8 34.6 21.2 9.8 7.1 25.8 9.6 20.5 10.3 11.9 -1.7 12.0 34.0 16,4 17.8 9.8 16.5 % Change December-December TOTAL: 12.2 All Items Food Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco Housing Fuel and Light Household and Miscellaneous Items Clothing and Footwear Services Source: 7.4 11.1 17.5 18.9 13.8 5.6 9.3 11.9 23.8 8.8 6.7 7.3 10.8 5.6 15.7 18.3 1.0 26.5 12.1 41.2 31.6 15.6 9.4 11.8 29.2 8.8 6.7 9.4 6.9 13.4 12.6 . 14.4 16.4 29.9 4.0 23.4 16.7 12.2 16.7 Digest of Statistics 1976 and 1979» Statistical Unit, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and data supplied CEPAL. I - 22 ST. VINCENT TABLE 4 X COMMERCIAL BANKS'•CREDIT - SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION (EC$ Mill.) r 1976 At end of Dec ember r 1978 1977 1979 < 1980 2.3 2.1 2.7 0o9 5.6 8.3 ... Distributive Trades 9.6 7.7 9.4 3•• Tourism 1. A 1.7 1.7 Transportation 1.1 1.7 2.5 Government and other statutory bodies 3.5 7.3 8.7 Building and construction 3.4 2.1 5.0 Personal loans 8.8 14.2 16.9 Other loans and advances 1.7 3.2 4.8 32.7 45.6 60.4 Agriculture Manufacturing / TOTAL - loans and advances Source: Data supplied CEPAL. .. . • • * 0 « • i i ST. VINCENT TABLE X I CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (EC$'000) 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79rl/ 1979/80 2/ 1980/81 3/ 28,954 32,783 39,155 43,166 48,729 19,976 24,387 27,795 27,970 34,995 4,766 2,571 5,587 712 6,339 5,714 3,012 6,871 624 8,165 8,790 3,328 8,031 704 6,942 7,300 3,400 8,350 700 8,220 10,750 4,000 10,000 900 9,345 Non-Tax Revenue 5,175 6,242 6,876 11,950 13,234 Aid Funds 3,803 2,154 4,484 3,246 500 26,835 29,776 41,063 Current Revenue Tax Revenue of which: Income Tax Consumption Tax Import Duties Export Duties Other taxes 4/ Current Expenditure Wages and salaries 49,539 5/ 47,894 22,629 o » « 25,265 Other expenditure -6,373 +835 8,444 47,344 55,294 13,297 18,906 47,344 55,294 Total Revenue 35,412 41,227 90,510 104,023 Total Expenditure.. 40,132 48,682 96,883 103,188 Fiscal deficit/surplus -4,720 -7,455 -6,373 +835 1,978 2,017 2,821 3,261 Savings/deficit or current account +2,119 +3,007 6,458 Capital Expenditure Capital Revenue Debt servicing N.B. -1,908 e o o 3,378 Fiscal year data July-June. 3/ Draft estimate. 2/ Approved estimate. 1/ Actual. 5/ Revised estimate. 4/ Includes Excise Duties. Vincent and the Grenadines 1980-81 and data supplied CEPAL. Source: Estimates of St. i i i i 4 4 ( i i PART XIV SURINAME COUNTRY NOTES i i i i < i i i i ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 ' SURINAME (Suriname Guilders used-.throughout) — . . . • • i e " Whereas no National Accounts data are available: iforr 1980, indications . are that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at- faccoxicost and in current prices rose to some SF. 1,620 million in 1980^ partly because of the effects of the Dutch Aid to Suriname,"partly in"reflection of the increased cost of hydrocarbon energy, and partly-reflecting-the performance in bauxite and its derivatives. Expansion in acreage under rice continued-as Government moved to profit from increased foreign exchange earnings from the sale of the commodity. Expansion in acreage under nil-palm continued in. 1979 with indications of further expansion in 1,980. .'Indications are that mixed performances were observed in-the rest of .-the Agricultural sector, with the trend in production being generally'downward. Bauxite production is estimated to have^lncreased by 3 per cent in 1980. The volume of exports in 1979, though some 22.6 per cent below the level of the previous year, produced a near 3 per cent increase in foreign exchange earnings. The estimate for 1980 is that foreign exchange earnings from the • Increased by some 12 per cent over the 1979 level. and aluminium in 1980 have Increases in the production of alumina been indicated. The Manufacturing sector , judging ,-frpnj movements in the Index of Manufacturing Production, registered a,general drop iin production despite rising consumption. This phepomenon,, derives from Suriname®s liberal trade policy (the absence of a negative, list of competitive imports) and greater cost-competitiveness of imported competitive products. 1/ The rate of exchange in 1980 was SF-. 1*789 * US$1.00. The Government sector-dominated-economic activity , making the highest contribution to total GDP, both in Current and in Real terms. The inflow of Dutch Development aid and the -as.a consequence.,. have, explainedrfchfi? sector..' srreeent dranfn an c p" in., the economy, ^ • lC~p,as no National A - -'••'.•,yr;tor 't • . Estimates put this Sector's relative?contributionto total*GDP at current 1978 -, • -- ' c r- • Domestic Produr t u^l* .::r . ., .> . ;„ r prices at 22 per cent. , ,, .r., . t v • 5? 1 . 6?.0 million m ,•>. i ,=- > > • The new Government o f. riaterrdlscipllnary -Energy Group to address itself to the.-p.rpbtlapi-.oifiLsjipply! and£o(st .of energy. , The lack of synchronization-of the project activities .in Western,. Surinam® was observed, and modifications to the original.projects-recommended».'.'The-.--'activities aimed n ac * eagc uT.icr . ' « ; ' - • at constructing dams are designed to,more.fully1 utilize existing, natural resources r J re! ;- oxi. t >••• ' i ••, '> • • . and reduce Suriname's dependence.onimports of petroleum. 1 ton in i v . . Apart from:. Public. sectpr.^tjLvd^y., ^n-^ergyv • Government" set about the completion of, a low-cost.,housing .,prpj-£e%innthe Marienb^g.area,, and the improvement of; road -links;*in. the^country«;: P^gress¿ was xoáderiitidthe Government' s Health Insusaaee.'Scheme^-'t.-'t'he-:' I ' i '' i aim.of -which-is.to~ cov.er::same¿*8fcper cent of the : r Ol K > : : ' ' population, on a phased^biasis^Government, realized; abudgetary surplus on Current Account in 1980* largely as a result.of more efficient spending. , . , SECTORAL TRENDS ! Agriculture ' 1 ' An analysis : of, GDP atfactor . Cost . ClS^priees,) : reveals that in 1978 (the last yaar..for which.>firmidata--are-.available),: the;Agxlct&tural sector — contributed. ,73« 5 ^million: to: total -GDP..: trAoven 8:-per. cent of the total GDP. Preliminary data, indicate; that .the: sector.. employs„some: 14vper cent of the employed population., . and ujtilizesiorily-a; very.. small:,fraction of total potential arable .land. Much .potential: exists,, for. the- establishment of agro-based industry once.the problems ;of .labour -shortages and credit have been solved. rate 2/ of Defined as Agriculture and;Fisheries^(does not include forestry). Over the last ten years there has been expansion in the acreage under rice, with corresponding increases in production. The techniques of a number of rice farmers who had previously worked in Indonesia have been acquired by the Surinamese farmers, with resultant improved yields. Mechanization has lowered the cost of production and has partially compensated for the shortage of labour. The result is that the middle- size farmer has profited and has now become a manager because of his interplay with other entrepreneurs and providers of services in sowing, fertilizing and spraying. The small farmers have formed a co-operative and at the same time have been given larger acreages. In 1979, the acreage under rice grew by some 6.6 per cent, with a total of some 235,772 tonnes of paddy rice being produced. Preliminary figures suggest increased production in 1980 of the order of 13 per cent. The Government-owned rice farm grows an estimated 60 per cent of all rice exports. Government is pursuing a vigorous rice expansion programme to profit from increased exchange earnings from the sale of the commodity. Within the past four years,.palm oil has gained prominence as an item of export. In 1979, the acreage under oil palm increased by 17 per cent to a total of 2,372 hectares, and preliminary evaluations are .. . that acreage further increased in 1980, although statistical data were not yet available. The rehabilitated sugar.estate at Marienburg continued in operation. Compared to output in 1979, production of sugar, cane fell by 10 per cent in 1980 to register a total of 146,339 tonnes. The sugar output estimate for 1980 is that production also fell. Agricultural cropping continues to suffer from high labour costs and a scarcity of workers. If the sector is to expand, then adjustments will need to be made to accommodate greater use of mechanization, fertilizer, and agricultural extension services, supplemented by improved storage and marketing facilities. The number of livestock-increased by 15 per cent in 1979, continuing the observed upward trend. Greatest relative increases were observed in cattle and pigs, while the numbers of goats and sheep which are - 4 - relatively less significant for the livestock sub-sector, decreased by nearly 7 per cent. The number of animals slaughtered increased. This is believed to have been partly in response to price.controls due.to.the differentials between the costs of inputs and returns from output, which affect the profitability of private farming. The indications are that-fish.production declined, in. 1980.as a result of the exodus of fishermen and-a-loss.of.access.to.Brazilian, shrimping grounds. Shrimpers concentrated more on local shrimping to profit from the favourable prices of shrimp. Statistical information systems.in. agriculture, must be.improved if they are to inform, the. decisionr-making. process . on a. timely.basis. At the time of writing,.data on.agricultural production in 1980 were not.available. However, taking into account the relative importance.of . the subr-sectors and the visible trends, there would have.been no real growth for the Agriculture sector in 1980, measured in 1974 prices. Mining The Mining and-Bauxite sector.. continued- to ..dominate- the goods producing sectors in terms of economic activity. The.most-recent. GDP- data (1978) indicate a. 14,7 per cent increase .in the. Gross.Domestic Product accruing to the sector, while in. constant prices, the.increase was.of the order of 9.3 per cent. . The Index of .Mining production, shows;, an .increase, of. 8.2 per cent in 1978 over the.1977 level of-production,.followed by a 4 per cent decline in 1979. ! Indications, are - that .Bauxite: production .increased: i . . 1980. by an n. estimated. 3 per. cent, after, the. 5 per:, cent-drop . i : production experienced in .n, 1979, so that.it.still would be below»the.peak.output.of.5:million tonnes recorded , in 1978. The volume.of-bauxite;exported-in-1979.-fell by some 22.6 per cent but- increased,, export-pricesi.procured-.a-near.:.3 per cent increase in foreign exchange, earnings, the figure.rising.to.Sf ..114 million in 1979. prognosis for .1980 is that the increase.achieved in production, would at current prices enhance the export-earnings-for this product. The Alumina production.fell-very.slightly in 19799 though export prices helped to increase the foreign exchange.earnings by some 59 per cent in 1979, The outlook for 1980 is an.increase over the 1979 level» of some 12 per cent in production and, consequently better export receipts. Aluminium production fell by 10 per.cent in 1979 below the previous year's output to register.a.production.level of 53,000. tonnes; and export volume fell by some 18 per.cent,.but.again, the effect of price produced for the economy, a.27.per.cent increase in export earnings from the. commodity. An increase in production of about 5 per cent is estimated to have been achieved in 1980, Generally, the Mining sector maintained its importance to total economic activity in Suriname, The sector is still dominated by two subsidiaries of multinational.companies,.with most of the actual mining activity being done in.the eastern-part of the.country. Despite occasional upsurges in the years since.1977, production.has generally not attained the 1973 level. This may be due in.part to the companies' marketing arrangements surrounding bauxite and alumina in response to introduction of the bauxite levy which is an.excise tax; and.which being correlated to the world market price for.aluminium, has been a factor influencing the rate of growth of bauxite extraction and alumina production. The relatively high cost structure.of.the industry in Suriname has served in addition, to render the products of the industry less cost-competitive than those of some other producers. If costs of production of bauxite and its derivatives;can.be restrained in the Western Suriname activities, the buoyancy of the economy based on bauxite would be more assured. Table V presents data on exports by.Value, Volume and Price, 1977-1979, and part-year data for 1980. Manufacturing The Manufacturing.sector,.except.for a few agro-products, is geared to the domestic market, and Table VI of the Statistical Appendix reflects the situation in 1979. The indications for 1980.are. that the sub-sectors experienced varying, fortunes,.with indications of a fall in the general output taking the sector as a whole. While basic items like sugar and flour show fluctuations, there are others like butter and alcohol where output has followed a declining trend, despite rising domestic consumption. This phenomenon is explained by the virtual absence of restrictions on imports combined with the traditional orientation of consumer preference towards the imported competitive counterpart product. In part also, this consumer preference is related to the greater cost-competitiveness of the imported product. PUBLIC SECTOR ACTIVITIES Since its attainment of Independence in 1975, Suriname has been the recipient of Dutch development aid which was promised to the extent of Sf. 2,500 million at 1978 exchange rates. Since this grant contains no i provision for inflation, there was a tendency towards policies aimed at a rate of disbursement that has proven to be-incompatible with the absorptive capacity of the country, given its administrative and physical infrastructure. At the end of the period of receipt of the Dutch.aid, the country is expected to be able to propel itself through Government:budget surpluses and through bi-lateral or multilateral aid or external commercial sources. Important steps toward the accomplishment of this capability are improvements in the system of tax. collection,.: and strict. controls, on. increases in current expenditure in the Public sector. It has to.be-borne in mind that in terms of contribution to GDP.the Government'sector.share.had risen to 22 per cent in 1978 when it overtookthe bauxite sector. In 1980, the Government.realised.a.budgetary surplus on Current Account, reportedly largely as a result.of more.efficient spendingAdministrative controls sought to produce a high degree - of- positive.^.correlation between hours worked and wages..and salaries paid. . At the same time, Capital Account activities continued with all.the major.construction, and Public Health initiatives being financed by the Dutch aid. Government, in. addition . t its activity - in. the-area, of .energy, set about .o the completion-of a.low-cost-housing project-in. the.Marienburg'area which had begun some three years previously. Additional ..construction identified as priority tasks include the-building.of.a bridge-over,the: Suriname river and a road to Nickerie. A major problem-of.labour still exists^despite the influx from Guyana over recent years. The narrow human resource base has set an upper limit to the extent to which the country can absorb investment. The result is that of the quantum of funds committed from 1975 to 1979-1980, only about one-third has been utilized. Government moved one step nearer to the realization of its Health Insurance Scheme, the aim of which is to cover 80 per cent of the population on a phased basis, and.starting with the members of the Civil Service and pensioners thereof. The estimated number of persons in this group.is of the order of 100,000.. In Phase II of the project, persons now in.receipt of free medical treatment from Government (members of the lowest income groups numbering some 125,000), will be incorporated into the scheme. Phase III will see the incorporation of the self-employed and small enterprises on a voluntary basis. An . estimated 60,000 persons fall.into this category. The Health Insurance Scheme.offers-the services of a physician, a specialist, hospitalization and-free drugs. Other treatment will be provided only when it is clinically needed. Polyclinical services will not be supported by the scheme. The scheme will cost an estimated Sf. 19 million in Phase I, with a per capita cost per year of some Sf, 190 The Dutch grant has enabled Government co embark on a number of projects aimed at reducing the dependence.on petroleum as a source of energy,.and at creating the prerequisites to an improved quality of life for the citizenry. The Government sector has therefore been able to lead in economic.activity, contributing (in current prices) Sf. 192 million to total GDP in 1976, Sf. 248 million in 1977, and Sf. 291 million in 1978-when the percentage-contribution to total GDP was 22 per cent. ENERGY AND ENERGY POLICY The energy production sector. Gas, Water and Electricity has been expanding consistently since 1975, in large part stimulated by official government policies to increase-.very substantially the generation of hydro-electricity. The initial.objective of providing electricity so that a larger percentage (than the 10,per cent of 1978) of bauxite output could be processed locally, was given greater urgency by the increases in price of crude petroleum. The seven-man Energy Commission appointed in 1979 to examine the energy situation ceased to function after the submission of its recommendations. The new Government of Suriname introduced an inter-disciplinary Energy Group to address itself to the problems of supply and the cost of energy. The group endorsed the Commission's recommendation that an energy bureau should be established to collect and harmonize the different activities in the field of energy. The Multiannual Development Plan which had looked at economic development from the point of view of the theory of growth poles was re-examined by the new Government of 1980. Included in that plan were the Kabalebo and Apoera projects in Western Suriname, originally intended to supply 800 MW of hydropower, which would have made the country virtually self-sufficient in energy, and thus reduce the petroleum import bill. The new Government observed the lack of synchronization of the project activities in Western Suriname, and began discussions with the World Bank and the OAS to determine the financing of the projects. The uncertainties surrounding the extent of future mining activity in the Bakhuis region have inclined the Government to think in terms.of a first phase.in the development of the hydropower project which would satisfy projected.industrial demand. The Kabalebo project, seeks to put in place 250 MW capacity at Devis Falls dam, and should permit a switch from the existing thermal capacity, further including a reduction of about 50 per cent of petroleum-imports in 1986. In addition, the Government has submitted plans to the Belgian Government for the investigation of promising sites.for micron-dams throughout the country, which will substitute for hydro-carbon derived energy. The sizes of the plants will vary depending on site,t'(^>ogfeap'hy and hydrology and will also be determined by Government's view of the location of industries and the decentralization of manufacturing activity out of Paramaribo. In addition, action has been taken on a further recommendation of the Commission in that offshore exploration for oil has begun, an American firm having been contracted for offshore drilling near the coast. In the area of alternative sources of energy, the Government, the University and the OAS are interested in embarking on a number of concrete activities. There is current interest in solar energy projects deriving from the usefulness of this source of energy for heating water, refrigeration of foodstuffs and-the drying of crops. Demand conditions are to be ascertained and depending on the results, feasibility studies will be carried out with interested economic activity groups such as Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Statistical Appendix Table XIV presents an analysis of energy consumption for the years 1976 to 1979, in thousand barrels of oil equivalent. THE EXTERNAL SECTOR AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS The characteristics in the current account of surpluses on merchandise trade being more than offset by deficits on services, continued to be evident. As in former years, the surplus on the Merchandise trade account, Sf. 59.2 million in 1979 and Sf. 23.9 million in 1980, reflected the strength of the Bauxite sector . a well as that of part of the .s Manufacturing and Agricultural sectors geared towards, the,export market. However, the deficit on services, Sf. 64 million in 1979 and Sf. 102 million in 1980, resulted in negative balances on current account 3/ reaching a figure of Sf. 66.1 million — in 1979, and Sf. 97 million in 1980. In 1980,. total exports-of goods-rose by 15.8 per cent over the 1979 figure.of.Sf. 792.7 million to a figure-of Sf. 918.2 million in 1980. Main, items of export were bauxite .and ..its derivatives, rice, and manufactured products based on-the Agriculture and Forestry.sectors, which together account.for-two-thirds-of total export.earnings. In 1980, exports of.bauxite and its derivatives accounted for foreign exchange earnings of Sf. 740.8 million. Bearing.in mind that.the.1978 figure of Sf. 551.3 million was 41.7 per cent of.that year's total GDP at current prices, the very substantial increases.in 1979 and 1980 would represent an even higher percentage. 3/ The Balance of Payments table.presented is on a cash basis. _ -p 1„ 0 - 'There" Ëas' aot' been ¿-'significant 'ciiahge ''in"the'' c ire'ct'iori of 'traäe. f 1 b The 1 major export'markets continued "to t ' " l e ' ÏVs'/À". , the^étliërlandsV' the" United >e t i JBlpôhWI vsisffit • U-\ • J 3 : . 3 ni Jqsïtuo.eiï axsiiî .aaxiiviipe . 933 Kitig dorn and Scandiiiavia with the exception or Denmark. The greater part of r Suriname's Import ^originated it the ÎÎetlieMancfèV* ihe ' Un^ecT '^aèes^ tfie^tnited i Kingdom1 and' ' itiénfftt£bbeaii'ïslandl"'* mainly1 J^rYhi%'a^ah^0(^bago,UJ imports' oî goods'rosé tö'kbme^t ^T^.^3 m i l l i o n 1 ' t o ^ W . ' V million in" 1§78, and an estimated Sf. 884.3 million m 1980. -. • rfpT x v-'-f ?,• . rT-- (/ •" .v.sües-jolfcù*sssi^a^i-i . r^-i*-p >or j / »* Estimates,.of the Export Price, Index, the yjgnaù^ Pric.er Index and sy.raasj-j „~\<~i r :u"i • f »ay • 13 : J.XO lu BISIIBO bXJ£8UOiî."t OX heavily influenced by the prices of bauxite and its derivatives. Table 1 below refers. •MìA aOTOag JÂMA3TXS 3HT te . ,v .i; t:i •/> T"-":"-- V „ :: l V • ys,icb fS 3i0lW<7 ns&OQhniii gn.'9'i >-mv< < <>! r o ¿•MQTUH SRII ( ^> 106.5 Import Pricefc Index'' ' ' - r &2i2£ h i ¿#7.388 cae£.9v7aa no9ii,:2i l9& 100. Or- «115.2 • > r r Terms of Trade::Index. ••. <• - j 1 : i •' ' • >• •• , ! . ' . ßj>3^3nS bs>.lli01y-3 {0« " 100^ 0 : ;92.4 vr : ' i . ^Q'Cgj. nr'"- ncllXxrn I.do . 1 ic o j.- ? • .f '5 ;,; ••,. '•.: Source : World Bank Estimates. • • ' - ¡ l x - v inn; y . j 8 v d f -i ' i n . -•j Of the other items m the balance of payments current account., net : r r '' • ; * I. ' ... - '¡f i j t •> h J j f hil£ ' y\'r i " - ( \ : : v ; • . ..r. . • ' ' . .. . ; S f ; -r.. transfer payments have bèèn'positive since" 1976, reflecting for the most part remittances from Surinamese who'1 migrated-''to .tòe^lfé^heriànàs''àuring 1975 and _ i r J , 3arr ì!" ¡ s io i.o] tsjm 'i '^Brfgrn i y ' i .q v\: kj See table VIII of the Statistical Appendix. = r e so i un «x bo JfT.^awtq . 9.tde3 ' giaerovr-^ io SDTOÌÌ-ÌS sriX \t - 11 1975, most of these inflows have taken the form of Dutch aid pledged upon Suriname's attainment of independence. The fluctuations from year to year are reflective of the extent of absorptive capacity of the domestic economy in the disbursement of the funds, and to a certain extent difficulties in the interpretation of the rules for the administration of the grant. The outflows of Public and Private Capital represent both Private sector and Government amortization of loans. The net effects of movements in the Current arid Capital Accounts have been overall balance of payments surpluses of Sf. 41.1 million in 1978, Sf. 48.4 million in 1979 and an estimated Sf. 44.3 million in 1980. Net International reserves rose by an estimated Sf. 52.2 million in 1979 - . PRICES, LABOUR AND WAGES The 14.1 per cent increase in the general price level indicated a slight deceleration in the rate of inflation in 1980, as measured by the retail price index. Strict price controls served to restrain the free upward price tendency of several commodities. Housing and furnishings experienced a price increase of 16.2 per cent, while the rate of price increase in Food and Beverages was 12.2 per cent. Petroleum prices which continued to increase in 1980 exerted upward influences on manufactured goods. The inflation in prices was maintained by continuing high wages, with the bauxite sector performing the role of leader, with the high wages in this sector inducing demands for wage increases in other sectors. The increase in employment and spending in the Public sector with no pari passu increase in the production of goods has been another important determinant of the rate of inflation. The high level of Government spending was reflected in an increased money supply. are yet available for 1980. Table 2 below presents preliminary data on Average gross wages per worker in 1978, by Sector, 5/ No data on wages See table X-B of the Statistical Appendix, - 12 - Table 2 Average Gross Wages per worker by Sector - 1978 Numbers Sector employed Percentage Average Gross Annual Wages per worker, 1978 - Sf. Agriculture and Fisheries 14,200 14.0 2,451 Forestry and Wood Industry 1,800 1,8 9,167 Mining and Bauxite 6,200 6.1 20,000 10,500 10,3 6,752 Gas, water and electricity 1,100 1.1 14,727 Construction 4,200 4.1 10,762 15,300 15.1 6,660 Transport, Storage and Communication 3,600 3,5 9.944 Financial Services 2,000 2.0 15,300 39,000 30,4 6,179 3,700 3.6 3.945 100 7,199 Manufacturing Trade and Commerce Government Other general, social and personal services.. TOTAL: -Source: 101,600 General Statistics- Office, ' - 13 - MONEY AND BANKING The continued influx of Dutch aid and the foreign exchange earnings from the main exports were responsible for the greater liquidity which helped the economy to the 14.1 per cent rate of inflation as observed. The restricted money supply (M^) comprising currency outside banks and demand deposits, rose by 7.6 per cent in 1980 to record a much lower rate of increase than the 11 per cent increase in the previous year — . The factors of expansion- were primarily foreign assets and Domestic credit, the latter increasing from Sf. 472.1 million to Sf. 491.4 million in 1980. The banks continuing to act as financier to many entrepreneurs, granted loans and advances to most sectors of the economy with the largest shares going to agriculture and manufacturing. Table XI presents data on outstanding loans and advances of. Commercial Banks for the period 1976 to 1980. At the end of 1980, of a total of Sf. 477.6 million, some.Sf. 192 million were.owed.by the productive sector, while the amount outstanding to.the Services sectors was of the order of Sf. 285.6 millionc Of this amount, not quite Sf, 109.6 million was owed by households and individuals from building loans procured by them. 6/ See table X-A of Statistical Appendix, < i i < ( I I I ( STATISTICAL APPENDIX SURINAME 1980 I i 4 i i i ( i i - 14 SURINAME TABLE I MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1975 A. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Basic economic indicators Gross Domestic Product at factor cost (millions of guilders at 1970 prices) 493 530 633 699 700 Population (thousands) 365 354 362 367 364 1,353 1,497 1,749 1,905 1,923 Per capita gross domestic product (guilders at 1970 prices) 352 Annual Growth Rates B. Short-run economic indicators Gross Domestic Product (real growth) + 5.2 + 16.9 + 9.0 + 0.8 Per capita gross domestic product (real growth) - 7.7 + 7.5 + 19.4 +10.4 0 Current value of exports of goods 1/ + 2.9 +9.5 + 13.9 +13.7 +12.9 +15.8 Current value of imports of goods If +14.7 + 7.1 + 27.2 + 6.0 + 7.7 +21.9 Consumer price index December-December + 4.3 +14.6 + 4.1 +10.9 +15.7 +10.9 Annual average variation + 8,6. + 9.8 + 9.7 + 8.8 +14.9 +14.1 Money 20.5 17.8 10.8 12.2 11.1 7.6 Current income of government 47.7 - 4.2 9.9 14.3 Total expenditure of government 40.3 21.7 21.4 22.3 Fiscal deficit/total expenditure C. - 3.4 16.1 34.0 40.3 44.2 External sector If 23.7 Trade balance — 1/85.2 Balance on current account Variation in net international reserves +61.8 22.0 2/ External debt —' 1/ On a cash basis 2/ Millions of Guilders 37.2 -23.7 - 24.8 -144.8 21.1 -82.1 59.2 -66.1 23.9 -97.0 +36.8 - 31.1 +66.2 +53.6 +52.2 19.7 17.4 55.3 52.3 49.4 External debt - governments and international organizations and private sector. SURINAME TABLE IIA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY KIND OF ACTIVITY - AT FACTOR COST - AT 1974 PRICES Millions of Suriname Guilders Percentage Breakdown 1976 1977 1978 pe Agriculture and Fisheries 61.6 72.9 73.5 9.7 8.2 18.4 0.8 Forestry and Wood Industry 11.2 14.3 20.4 1.7 2.3 27.7 42.7 144.8 164.3 179.6 28.3 20.0 13.5 9.3 Manufacturing 50.4 57.2 60.5 5.3 6.8 13.5 5.8 Gas, Water and Electricity 16.0 16.4 19.7 2.3 2.2 2.5 20.1 Construction 24,8 68.6 47.0 2.0 5.2 176.6 -31.5 Sub-total goods 308.8 393.7 400.7 49.3 44.7 27.5 1.8 Trade and Commerce 109.6 125.0 146.3 14.4 16.2 14.1 17.0 Transport, Storage and Communication 32.0 37.1 40.1 3.3 4.4 15.9 8.1 Transport 30.4 31.4 60.5 4.7 6.8 3.3 92.7 Household Services 36.0 35.0 37.4 4.9 4.1 - 2.8 6.9 153.6 177.1 198.0 21.1 22.0 15.3 31.6 12.0 14.3 16.3 2.3 1.8 19.2 13.9 373.6 419.9 498.6 50,7 55.3 12.4 18.8 682.4 813.6 899.3- • 100.0 100.0 19,2 10.5 Mining and Bauxite Government Others Sub-total services TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Source: 1978 pe . Annual Growth Rate 1974 Data supplied CEPAL by General Statistics Office. 1977 1978 pe SURINAME TABLE IIB GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY KIND OF ACTIVITY - AT FACTOR COST - AT CURRENT PRICES Millions of Surmame _ .. , Guilders Percentage t> ij Breakdown 1976 1978 pe 1973 1978 1977 . , „ , „ Annual Growth Rate 1976 1977 1978 Agriculture and Fisheries 77 102 108 8,3 8.2 16.8 32.5 5.9 Forestry and Wood Industry 14 20 30 1.8 2.3 16.7 42.9 50.0 181 230 264 32.1 19.9 1.1 27.1 14.7 Manufacturing 63 80 89 7,1 6,7 40,0 27.0 11.2 Gas, Water and Electricity 20 23 29 2.6 2.2 11.1 15.0 26.1 Construction 31 96 69 1.9 5.2 106.7 209.7 - 28.1 137 175 215 13,6 16,3 10.5 27.7 22.9 Transport, Storage and Communication 40 52 59 3.2 4,5 25.0 30.0 13.4 Financial Services 38 44 89 2,8 6.7 26.7 15.8 102.3 Household Services 45 49 55 4,2 4,3 50,0 8.9 12.2 192 248 291 20.3 22,0 23.9 29.2 17.3 15 20 24 2,1 1,8 - 16.7 33.3 20.0 853 1,139 1,322 100 100 16.8 33.5 16.1 Mining and Bauxite Trade and Commerce Government Other general, social and personal services Source: Data supplied CEPAL by General Statistics Office, SURINAME TABLE III INDICATORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Production 1976 r. .. - 1977 r 1978 r Annual Growth Rate 1979 r 1980 P 1977 r 1978r' 1979*1 1980P Index of Agricultural Production (1970 = 100) Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing 138.7 142.8 • • • Agricultural Production 132.0 149.0 ••« Livestock 118.0 117.7 ••» Fishing 141.5 130.6 *t• 172,500 202,866 223,946 235,772 132 230 273 264 146,685 135,325 119,760 163,060 146,339 1,330 1,840 2,804 4,856 4,157 38.3 42,906 31,508 33,063 31,214 31,659 -26.5 Root Crops 1,572 1,699 1,700 2,200 2,850 2,742 3,280 3,287 Other Vegetables — 3,035 3,587 3,746 4,328 3.0 12.9 •«t -0.3 - 7.7 t•» Production of Agricultural Crops (Tonnes) Paddy rice Maize Sugar cane Oil Palm Bananas Plantain (Of which peanuts) Coffee Cocoa ' (290) À 58 266,334 • • • 17.6 10.4 5.3 13. 0 74.2 18.7 - 3.3 . - 7.7 - 11.5 36.1 -10.3 52.4 73.2 -14.4 5.0 - 5.6 8.1 29.5 « • • (...) 67.6 24.6 15.1 19.9 18.2 4.4 15.5 (16.6) (-26.0)( 14.4) (250) (286) 90 25 59 • • . 18.4 - 72.2 136.0 61 47 83 • • • 5.2 - 23.0 76.6 - (338) 1.4 • • TABLE III (CONT'D) INDICATORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Production 1976r Cattle Goats and sheep Other Poultry 2/ Number of Animals slaughtered — Cattle " " Poultry Production Beef Pork Indicators of Fishing Production — Shrimps Fish Crabs TOTAL Shrimps, Fish and Crabs 61,648 34,495 70,967 42,239 18,259 18,000 20,179 4,500 425 4,200 425 8,888 265 8,294 255 4,312 4,400 7,375 19,160 6,986 4,500 21,568 7,929 4,500 22,466 8,002 11,759 12,981 354 415 3,800 1979r 1977 - 1978 1979 -3.1 1980 31.5 15.1 43.7 7.2 3,6 - 1.4 6.7 111.6 0.0 - 37.6 22.4 12.1 - 6.7 - 3.8 (Stock) " (1,000 Stock) 2.0 1.1 5.3 2.3 12.6 13.5 0.0 4.2 13,710 4.8 10.4 5.6 658 754 17.2 58.6 14.6 3,900 4,000 4,180 2.6 2.6 4.5 980 774 (1,000 Stock) Pigs Goats and sheep 46,884 24,000 11,219 Pigs 48,394 25,850 18,948 (Stock) 1977r 17,619 Indicators of Livestock Production Number of Livestock 1978r Annual Growth Rate 943 811 1,194 948 1,098 1,069 -. 3.8 4.8 26.6 16.9 - 8.0 .12.8 81 3,230 32 189 3,400 26 338 2,885 23 321 2,618 30 132.4 79.1 5.3 - 15.1 - 18.8 - 11.5 - 5.0 - 9.3 30.4 3,343 3,615 3,246 2,969 8.1 - 10.2 - 8.5 - 0.9 ('000 kg) ('000 kg) ... 1/ Includes green vegetables, peanuts, pulses and 2j Excludes poultry. 3/ Local fishing activity, cabbages, tomatoes and other vegetables. Source: (1) Agarish - Statistische gegevens 1970-1979. Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Suriname. (2) Graadmeter van de Surinaamse Skonomie, (Basisgegevens over producktie, arbeidsplaatsen, lonen en prijzen). Bureau of Statistics, Suriname. SURINAME TABLE III AGRICULTURAL AREA UNDER CULTIVATION (Planted Area) H E C T A R E S 1977r 1978r 1977r 1978r 1979r 49,700 55,200 58,855 2.7 11.1 6.6 110 140 185 17.0 27.3 32.1 Sugar cane 2,188 2,303 2,429 3.2 5.3 5.5 Oil Palm 1,880 2,025 2,372 9.9 7.2 17.1 Bananas 1,739 1,694 1,683 - 0,2 - 2.6 - 0.6 Plantains 250 216 272 24.4 -13.6 26.0 Root Crops 400 452 525 - 0.5 13.0 16.1 Other Vegetables — 867 939 1,284 11.0 8.3 36.7 Cocoa 390 208 214 0.0 -46.7 0.3 Coffee 360 209 199 0.3 -41.9 - 4.8 Paddy Rice Maize 1979r Annual Growth Rate 1980 1_! Includes Green Vegetables, Peanuts, Pulses, Cabbage, Tomatoes and other Vegetables. Source: . Agarisch - Statistische gegevens 1970-1977, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Suriname and CEPAL, on the basis of official information. SURINAME TABLE V INDICATORS OF MINING PRODUCTION Jan-Sept 1977 Index of Mining Production (1970 = 100) 98.0 1978 106.0 1979 98.1- 1979 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1980 P 1977 1978 1979 73.0 77.0 5.8 8.2 3,569 956 41 3,668 1,073 43 5.9 4.5 8.9 3.5 8.3 18.0 9.6 1.8 26.1 3.5 6.1 - 5.2 1980 -22.6 .8.9 -18.2 -4:2 Production ('000 metric tons) Bauxite Alumina Aluminium 4,856 1,215 50 5,025 1,316 J16 59 4,769 1,312 53 - 5.1 (2.8) - 0.3 (12.2) -10.2 (4.9) 2,206 1,059 58 2,284 1,124 55 1,767 1,329 45 Bauxite 102 111 114 131 21.4 8.9 2.7 14,9 Alumina 260 297 473 499 9.7 14.2 59.3 5.5 96 91 116 47.7 - 5.2 27.4 Export volume ('000 metric tons) Bauxite Alumina Aluminium Export value (Sf. million) Aluminium Source: Kwaartaal.Statistiek van.de-Industriale Produktie 1970-1977, Bureau of Statistics, Suriname, and data supplied CEPAL. S3 O SURINAME TABLE VI INDICATORSOF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION Jan-Sept 1976 1977 1978 1,173 2,374 1,763 Sugar 100 87 70 Wheat flour 210 201 Cattle fodder 133 Margarine Milk (in consumption) r Annual Growth Rate 1979 1979 1980 1,328. 942 916 118 96 36 206 231 172 162 200 225 170 103 125 94 115 132 99 135 149. 158 146 1977 1978 1979 Index of Manufacturing Production (1974 = 100) Butter 102. ,4 -25.8 -24.7 - 13, ,0 -19.6 68.6 ,3 4. 2.5 12.1 ,8 21, 23.4 12.5 68 ,8 - 24, 22.4 14.8 108 111 10, ,4 6.0 - 7.6 .. 103 .. . .. . - Alcohol 74 66 64 59 43 26 ,8 - 10. - 3.0 - 7.8 Molasses 93 106. .65 87 71 39 13, ,9 -38.6 33.8 Cigarettes 124 129 128 131 95 103 4, ,0 Cigars. 127 97 89 93 74 52 ,6 - 23. - 8.2 Shoes (male) 155 133 155 155 113 99 ,2 - 14, 16.5 Shoes (female) 105 77 117 89 67 104 ,7 - 26, 51. 9 - 2.3 4.5 -23.9 TABLE VI (CONT'D) INDICATORS OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1976 r r r r 1979 Jan-Sept ^ 1979 1980 1977 1978 130,209 263,525 195,713 147,391 104,594 101,676 Annual Growth Rate 1977 1978 1979 Specified Industrial Production Butter Kilograms Sugar Tonnes i i 8,688 7,597 6,122 10,246 8,363 3,130 - 12.6 -19.4 67.4 i i 9,257 8,834 9,071 10,164 7,572 4,543 - 28,730 35,-057 43,017 48,466 36,666 768 576 709 814 7,311 . 8,090 8,592 1,913 1,714- 3,645 Millions Thousands Wheat flour Cattle fodder 4.6 2.7 12.0 22,237 22.0 22.7 12.7 615 424 - 25.0 23.1 14.9 7,901 5,850 6,013 10.7 1,656 1,539 1,109 678 4,144 2,549 3,384 2,763 1,511 342 228 354 174 353 161 361 167 260 134- 283" 3.5 - 0.3 - 2,3 93 - 23.7 - 7.5 3.7 '000 pairs i i 340 276 354 321 236 262 214 184 214 214 156 137—/- 14.0 16.3 I I 126 92 140 107 80 125^/- 27.0 52.2 -23.6 Margarine. '000 kilograms Milk (in consumption) '000.litres I I Alcohol Molasses Cigarettes Cigars Shoes (male and female) Shoes (male) Shoes (female) 1/ i t Two factories out of the four. Source: 102.4 -25.9 -24.7 Kwartaal Statistiek van de Industriale-Produktie 1970-1977; Bureau of Statistics, Surinamej and data supplied CEPAL. 6.2 - "8.0 - 10.4 - 3.4 - 7.1 13.7 -38.5 ~ 18.8 32.8 28.3 - 9.3 0.0 SURINAME TABLE VII EXPORTS OF GOODS Millions öf Suriname Guilders BreaKûown 1980P 1977 1978 1979 494.4 551.3 609.1 Bauxite (117.1) .(128.7) Alumina . (271.3) (314.1) Aluminium (106.0) (108 .-5) (133.6) (110.6) Bauxite and processing Agriculture and fishing * 87,6, (14.8) (16.1) ( 9.9) (-9.0) ( 5 9) (358.4) (498.8) (46.3) (45.2) (11.5) (15.5) (14.1) (43 3) " (14.9)" (16.8) (52.7) ( 2.4) (23.1) (12 9) • « ( 68.0) •o a ( ( ( • Shrimps and fish ( 51.6)^ ( 37.8) ( 54.7) TOTAL 61- 9 ^ .7. . 46.0 702.4-/ . 7.3) 19.4 34.2 4.1 « ( 48.0) 24.9 • • •« e »00 •0 792.7-/ 918.2-/ 1/ 2/ ( 2.7) 16.4. - 8.4- ( 8.6) (-28.1) ( -) ( 8.9) ( 11.5 5.9 10.5 29. 3 40.1 (60.0 (41.7) (16.7) (4.3) 6.9) (-26.J) (44.7) ( 1.4) ( 0.9) . (- 7.7) 2.7 2,5 - 6.0 11.8 57.7 6.3 4.3 100,8 84.7 -15.6 100.0 100.0 13.9 13.7 12.9 Shrimps.only Derived from the Balance of Payments on a cash basis Source: 1980 (25.7) ( 30.0) Others 1979 (117.1) (131.4) Bananas/Plantains 1 1 . 0 ... . 12.3 1978 19.4 130.0 Wood and processing 1977 76.8 92.8 7.0) 1979 86.9 740.8 Rice 6.0) 1970 Annual Growth Rate General Bureau of Statistics/Central Bank of Suriname. 15 8 SURINAME TABLE VIII BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1975-1980 (On a cash basis; in Sf. mill.) Description 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 CURRENT ACCOUNT - Merchandise Trade Of which non-monetary gold) 23.7 37,2 (- 1.4) (- 1.5) 21,1 24.8 59.2 (- 2.3) ( - 5 . 5 ) (- 2.1) (- 23.9 5.1) - Services - 80,4 - 39.0 -62,5 -55.0 -64,1 -101.9 (of which Transport and Insurance of .goods) (-- .-.). ( . ) (-13,5) (-17.6) (-20.6) (- 27.5) (of which Foreign Travel) (-•47.4) (- 9,5) (-10,0). (- 9,1) (-19.4) (- 26.4) (+10,3) ( - 1 8 . 9 ) (-10,7) (+ 0,7) ( - 2,7) (- 15.4) (of which Government n,i,e.) - Primary.income (Of which direct investment income) (Of which Salaries) - Unrequited private transfers (Of which private grants and migrants transfers) (Of which subsistence remittances) BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT (I) - 25,3 - 65,6 -61.3 ( . ) ( . ) (-66,4) (- 4,3) (- 2,5) (- 5,3) ((+ 3,2 + 43,7 3,4) (+ 38,1) 0,2) (+ 5,6) - 85,2 - 23,7 + 3.8 (+0,6) (+ 5,5) -144,8 -55,2 -73,7 - 30.7 (-61.6) (-88.5) (- 65.6) (- 5.4) (- 6,9) (- 6.3) + 7.0 +12.5 (+ 1.3) (+ 5,4) O 8,3) (+ 9,0) -82,1 -66,1 + 11.7 (+ (+ 4.1) 8.9) - 97,0 CAPTIAL ACCOUNT - Private capital (Of which direct investments) - Government Grants +•70.1 C . ) +319,5 - 21.1 - 8,2 -30.6 - 93,5 (-24.8)- (-16.5) (-34,1) ( « ) +138,4) +99.0 +144.1 +159,1 +40,0 - Government loans received + 24.9 - Repayments on Government loans -270,3 - 2,4- -2,3 -•2,0 - Other Government Capital - Capital movement of deposit money banks + - 2,7 0,1 - 2,1 - 1,2. + 2,1 - 4**4 • + 1.8 BALANCE ON CAPITAL ACCOUNT (II) +147.0 + 60,4 +112,9 2,8 + 33.0 (+ 13,3) +124.6 - - 2,9 - - 2.9 - 1,2 - 12,2 +141:3^_ N) 4> TABLE V I I I (CONT'D) BALANCE OF.PAYMENTS 1975-1980 (On a cash basis; in Sf, Mill.) 1975 1976 1977 1978 > : 1979 1980 •j " t ALLOCATION OF SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHTS (III) + 0.7 NOT YET CLASSIFIED AMOUNTS (IV) BALANCE ON TOTAL ACCOUNT (V=I-IV) +61.8 +36.7 + 0.6 -31.2 +41.7 +48.4 +44.3 BALANCING ITEMS: (increase = -) +31.5 (+24,5), -v Monetary gold.; (Of which valuation changes) - Special Drawing Rights - Reserve . position . . n the IMF *i :: Foreign exctiah'ge (Ofwhich Central (Of which Central , (Of .which Deposit ! r ! " ' • Bank)' : " Government) 'Money; 'banks) rv: "'-'-' -6:.,8 (-42.3) ( '- ) (-19,5) Source:" Central Bank of Suriname, -36 ,7 ' (-25.3) (- 7.9) .(- 3.5) '+3l}2 (+27 }4) (+ 1.3) (+2.5); o -11 i0 ' -62,2'' '(^51,-5)';: (-^ 1.8)" (-12.5)^ 4.0 -48 , ** 10. 4* i ;k* •—19.6 '-44.3 fo L n SURINAME TABLE IX EVOLUTION OF DOMESTIC PRICES (Base: 1 April 1968 - 31 March 1969 = 100) Weights 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 100.0 170.1 186.7 203.2 233.4 266.3 Food and Beverages 40,0 183.9 197.4 207.1 233.7 262.2 Housing and Furnishings 23,6 159.7 171.7 200.8 225.9 262.4 Clothing and Footwear 11,0 162.1 196.2 225.2 280.1 306.6 Other Items 25.4 161.6 178,6 189.8 219.3 258.8 Consumer Price Index - All Items Variation December to December Consumer Price. Index. « • All Items - .14,6 4,1 10,9 15,7 10,9 Annual average variation 9,8 9,8 8,8 14,9 14,1 Food and Beverages 9,9 7,3 4,9. 12,8 12,2 Housing and Furnishings 6,7 7,5 17,0 12,5 16,2 Clothing and Footwear 18,0 21.0 14.8 24.4 9.5 Other Items 10.2 10.5 6.3 15.5 18.0 Consumer Price Index - All Items Source: Prijsindexcijfers van de.Gezinsconsumptie- - Bureau of Statistics, N > O N , SURINAME TABLE X-A MONETARY BALANCE Sf. Millions of Gúilders 1919^ 1980^- 219.3 246.1 273.5 294.2 12.2 11.1 7.6 125.3 145.1 156.4 177.8 15.8 7.8 13.7 94.0 -. 101.0 Money (M^) Currency outside banks • Demand deposits 2. Factors .of Expansion 1978 1980^ 1978^ 117.1 116.4 7.5 15.9 - 0.6 1911— 1. Annual Growth Rate 1979 577.0 805.7- 889.4 23.5 13.1 10.4 218.8- 333.6 398.0 33,4 18.4 19.3 365.8 - Domestic credit 712,4. 211.2 . ,2/ Foreign assets (net)— 430.6-- 472.1 491,4 17.7 9.6 4.1 Claims on Government-(net) (70.3) ( 57.7) ( 36.3) ( 14.7) (-17,9) (-37.1) (-59.5) Claims on the private sector (295.5) (372.9) (435.8) (476.7) ( 26.2) ( 16.9) ( 357.7, 466.3 532.2 595.2 30.4 14.1 11.8 33.1 36.7 38.8 49.8 10.9 . 5.7 . 28.4 296.4 364.2 421.3 454.9 22.9 15.7 8.0 28.2 65.4 72.1 90.5 131.9 10.2 25.5 3. • Factors of Absorption Quasi-money Long-term deposits and foreign-borrowing 3/ Other items (net) 1/ ,. Including Suriname Postale Bank 2 / Includes Government Foreign Assets _ 3/ Includes-capital and.reserves,-time deposits for more than one year plus genuine savings plus long-term borrowings Source: Central-Bank of Suriname. 9.4) SURINAME TABLE X-B INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (Sf. Mill.) 1976^ 1977—/ 1978^/ 1979^/ 1980^/ 198.0 170.6 224.8 292.9 338.6 Foreign Exchange — (187.0) (159.6) (220.8) (288.9) (334.6) Gold ( 11.0) ( 11.0) ( ( ( Central Bank Central Government 4.0) 6.7 4.8 1,1 0.6 36.6 34.1 48.0 37.2 44.2 242.5 211.4 277,6 331.2 383.4 JL/ Includes Suriname Postale Bank 2/ Includes Reserve Position in the I.M.F, and Special Drawing Rights Source: 4.0) 7.9 Commercial Banks (net) Total Reserves (net) 4,0) Central Bank of Suriname. i t o oo 1 SURINAME TABLE III LOANS AND ADVANCES OF COMMERCIAL BANKS (BY SECTORS) (Sf. Mill.) Annual Growth Rate 1978 1978^ 1979^ 1980^ 30.3 39.2 54.1 68,3 29.4 38.0 26.3 Fishery 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 - 73.3 25.0 20.0 Forestry 0.7 1.4 1.6 1,6 100.0 14.3 Agriculture 1979 1980 1911— Mining 28.3- 25.4 27,6 24.2 - 10.2 8.7 -12.3 Manufacturing 30.5 37,2 44.3 49.9 22.0 19.1 12.6 Construction and Installation 11.0 15,4 21.3 22.7 40.0 38.3 6.6 Electricity, gas and water 13.4 ^ 20,3 19,2 24.7 51.5 - 5.4 28.7 115.7 139.3 168.6 192.0 20,4 21.0 13.9 94.7 122,5 136.0 150.3 29.4 11.0 10.5 7.5 9,4 12.6 9.3 25,3 34.0 -26.2 Service 10,0 9,2 16,5 16.4 8.0 79.4 - 0.6 Other (including building loans) 74,2 93,9 105.0 109,6 26,6 11,8 4.4 186,4 237,0 270.1 285,6 27.2 14.0 5.7 302JL- 376j3 438^7 477^6 24:6. 16^6 8^9 Sub-total productive sector Commerce Transport Sub-total Services TOTAL 1/ Including Suriname.Postale Savings Bank Source: Central Bank of Suriname, - M V O - 30 SURINAME TABLE XII GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS 1974-1980 1974 1975 1976 1977 United States 43 42 33 41 EEC: 30 31 32 33 (17) ( 3) ( 6) ( 4) (21) ( 3) ( 4) ( 3) (15). (12) ( 2) ( 3) (24) ( 7) ( 1) ( 1) 12 1 4 1 13 1 4 1 - - 3 2 4 100 Exports to; Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Other EEC Countries Scandinavian (excluding Denmark) Other European Countries Caribbean Islands French Guiana and Guyana Venezuela Canada Japan Other Countries 8 4 4 1 2 1 5 1 100 100 100 32 31 33 (18) ( 5) ( 4) ( 5) TOTAL 3 4 1 17 1 4 1 5 1 3 3 (20) ( 4) ( 4) ( 3) (21) ( 4) ( 4) ( 4) 33 20 34 15 3 8 3 6 31 16 3 7 4 6 100 100 Imports from: EEC: c o o Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Other EEC Countries United States Caribbean Islands South American Countries Japan Other Asian Countries Other Countries TOTAL Source; 0 • o « o 9 « e o 9 « Q « e o Q 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 7 « « 0 100 Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Report, 1980« 1980 - 31 - SURINAME TABLE XIII GOVERNMENT REVENUES (Sf. Mill.) 1977 1978 1979 1980 175.0 228.-9 254.0 272.3 86.6 88.7 96.5 Current Revenue Taxes Revenue from government-owned land and intangible assets 82.6- Administrative fees and licences 1.3 1.3 1,7 1.6 Government contributions 1.9 2.8 2.6 3.3 14.1 12.0 11.5 11.5 6.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 26.7 30.2 26.3 33.6 307.7 362.9 385. 9 420.0 2.8 4.2 3.3 4.0 310.5, 367.1 389,2 424.0 Development Revenue 230.7 256.0 157.0 130.5 III. 541.2. 623.1 546. 2 554.5 - ^-Nè't1-prof itsC'from'government' and profit enterprises Issues from government storage Other receipts I. TOTAL CURRENT REVENUE Extraordinary Revenue II. TOTAL CURRENT AND EXTRAORDINARY TOTAL REVENUES (I + II) Source: Financiële Nota 1980, Ministry of Finance. » - 32 - » SURINAME TABLE XIV GROSS DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY 1976-1980 (In '000 bbls. of oil equivalent) ) Product » 1976 1977 1978 1979 19 27 27 92 102 106 124 Premium gasolene 156 211 243 261 Regular gasolene 92 106 104 106 Kerosene 29 27 26 22 Diesel oil 1,056 1,275 1,269 1,128 Fuel oil 2,639 2,106 3,358 3,190 LPG 59 72 74 76 Lubricating oil 36 39 44 42 Grease 2 2 - - Others » 12 Aviation kerosene » Aviation gas 2 2 - - 4,175 3,961 5,251 4,976 1,570 1,760 1,370 1,533 5,745 5,72.1 6,621 6,509 Sub-total 9 Hydro TOTAL » » > Source: Energy Planning Unit, Planning Bureau, 1980 I i i i 4 ( i i i PART XV TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO COUNTRY NOTES 4 i i < i i < i ( ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1980 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (TT Dollars used throughout) A 22.5 percent increase in total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices moved the absolute level of GDP to $14,081.9 million in 1980, as the various sectors of the economy responded to increased prices and situations in which supply could not satisfy demand conditions. An estimated near 17 percent increase in the general price level indicates that real growth was of the order of 5 percent. The Agricultural Sector continued to perform with mediocrity in 1980 in response to the external stimuli of shortages of labour, crop diseases, crop losses due to flooding, and an inefficient marketing system. The worst performance in the modern history of the Sugar Sector was recorded in 1980 when a level of production 21 percent less than the previous year and 45 percent below the level of 1976 was recorded. was observed. A general downward trend in other agriculture Price movements, however, influenced the observed increase in the Agricultural Sector's contribution of $286.1 million to total GDP - an increase of 7.2 percent over the 1979 level. The Petroleum Sector, with a contribution of $4,933,7 million to total GDP, continued to dominate the economy in 1980, though its percentage contribution to total GDP continued to fall, reaching in 1980 a figure of 35 percent, as compared with 43 percent in 1977. Crude petroleum production declined in 1980 for the second successive year, the decline in production being largely the result of the maturing of existing fields and the absence of new significant deposits of oil. Whereas the Manufacturing Sector's GDP increased by some 24.6 percent in 1980, most of this increase tfas due to prices. Although 1/ The Trinidad and Tobago dollar exchanges with the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 = TT$2,40. this sector's contribution to total GDP rose to $1,017.9 million in 1980, its percentage contribution to total GDP remained substantially unchanged. Activity in the Construction Sector was restrained by shortages of labour and materials, restrictions in the availability of credit from the Banking Sector, and more selective lending on the part of financial institutions. The pattern of trade continued to be influenced by the export of petroleum and petroleum products, and the importation of raw materials, food, manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment. Estimates of the balance of payments yielded a surplus on Merchandise Trade of some $2,797.7 million, and an overall balance of payments surplus of $1,199.3 million in 1980. The policies of credit restriction and selective credit controls continued in 1980 as the Central Bank sought to control inflation and re-direct the flow of financial resources towards the priority productive sectors of the economy. Despite these efforts, the rate of inflation as measured by the Retail Price Index increased in 1980, the index increasing by 17.5 percent. In the previous year the rate of price increase was 14.7 percent. Capital expenditure of the Central Government rose by 62 percent In accordance with the rate of growth of industrial and infxastructural development in the economy, and in accordance with the government's policy of establishing industries that would make use of the abundant supplies of natural gas. PERFORMANCE IN THE MAJOR SECTORS Agriculture The Agricultural Sector continued to perform with mediocrity in 1980 in response to the external stimuli of shortages of labour caused for the most part by shifts of the labour force to service-type occupations, crop diseases, crop losses due to the effects of flooding, and an inefficient marketing system. Additionally, much agricultural land has been utilized for housing and industrial purposes. Domestic production of agricultural ) - 3 ^ commodities has therefore stagnated or declined, giving rise to increased imports of food. The sugar industry experienced its worst ever performance in 1980, registering a production of 112.7 thousand tonnes of sugar * - some 21 percent lower than the previous year's production level, and 45 percent below the level of 1976, The acreage under cane cultivation decreased by 3 percent in 1980 from the 1979 acreage, and 12 percent below the 1976 acreage. ' Efficiency as measured by ratios of tonnes of sugar per hectare, declined in 1980, as a result of a number of causes. Among the major reasons for the continued decline in sugar production were: 1 i) ii) poor quality canes resulting from disease and insect attack; unreliable factory performance, stemming from unavailability of vital equipment, absenteeism and inability to recruit technical staff; ) lii) iv) high incidence of unauthorized fires; and unsatisfactory transport situation caused by bad roads and non-availability of mobile units. Local consumption of domestically produced sugar declined by 14.6 percent in 1980 to register a total of 38,414 tonnes, and continued the downward trend that had begun since 1977. Exports of raw sugar declined by 9 percent in 1979, dropping to a level of 92,309 tonnes, to fall by a further 31 percent in 1980. At the same time,, imports of refined sugar rose drastically in 1980 to a level of 18,484 tonnes - more than three times the imports of 1979, The fall m the production of sugar meant that the country was not able to fulfil its export quota of 74,000 tonnes of raw sugar to the European Economic Commission (EEC) market according to the provisions of the Lome Convention. The fall in production deprived the country of benefiting from the increased price of sugar which was in 1980 the highest price in five years, because of a shortfall in world production _ 4 - of the commodity. By the first week in October 1980, the price of raw sugar on the London market had reached £384 per tonne as compared with £125 per tonne of the previous year. Table 1 below represents data on sugar production, exports, imports and local consumption of domestically produced sugar for the period 1975-1980. Table 1 Sugar production, Exports, Imports and Local Coin sumption Unit = '000 :oangs Year Production (raw) Exports (raw) Imports (refined) 1975 162.6 110.0 1,8 1976 203.6 157=0 0.8 1977 175.9 139.6 3.6 1978 147.0 101.6 6.9 1979 142 » 6 1980 112.7 Source: 93.1 63o7 6.1 16.5 Review of the Economy, 1980, with metrie equivalents by CEPAL, and Sugar Manufacturers' Association. Other Agriculture Cocoa production which had been on the decline during the 1970's continued on a downward trend in 1980 as indicated by the data, production falling by 23 percent in 1979 and by an estimated 24 percent in 1980. Since 1978 the price of cocoa on the international market has fallen continuously„ Towards the end of 1979, the price of the commodity on the London market was $5,976 per tonne. Exports of cocoa from Trinidad and Tobago averaged in 1979, $8,190 per tonne. Coffee production, like that of cocoa, has been on the decline. A mid-year 1980 production figure indicates a 12 percent drop in output. This commodity has experienced a decline in its average export price from $9c42 in 1978 to $6.88 per kg. in 1979. Copra production continued to fall, its movement being inversely correlated with the demand for green coconuts for drinking purposes. Crop diseases and reductions in the acreage under cultivation have contributed to the reduced production. Tobacco production fell in response tc a redaction in both the acreage under cultivation and the number of farmers in the industry. The major factor explaining the poor performance of tobacco has been a failure of the farmers and the manufactuiers tc agree on a supply price of tobacco. The performance in sugar and in Other Agriculture along with the element of price, secured an increase of 7.2 percent in GDP of the sector. This relative increase was however n'Ji large enough to reverse the decline in the relative importance cf the Agricultural Sector which accounted in 1980 for only 2 percent of tcval GDP. Except for beef and veal all the non-crop agriculture (including fishing) have failed to show expansions ^oimnneurate with the higher levels of income and demand in the economy. Mining and Refining The Petroleum Sector continued to dominate the economy in 1980, with GDP in the sector growing from $4,093.5 million in 1979 to $4,933.7 million in 1980 - an increase of some 20.5 percent. This increase reflects price movements rather than real increases. Despite the performance cf the sector, its percentage contribution to total GDP has been falling since 1977 when it contributed 43 percent of total GDP. In 1980 the contribution of this sector fell to 35 percent, reflecting the relatively faster growth of the non-oil sectors. The preliminary indications are that crude petroleum production declined in 1980 for the second successive year. This decline in production was largely the result of the maturing of existing fields and the still modest output from new wells coming on stream. A number of new wells brought into production raised the output of one of the petroleum companies, thereby cushioning the extent of the fall in production in 1980. Marine wells continued to account for the greater part of domestic crude petroleum. On land, new wells and improved recovery techniques have boosted this part of production. Exports of crude petroleum have moved in accordance with the production of crude by one transnational company operating locally. This company exports all of its crude petroleum production, and is the largest producer of the commodity. The proportion of domestic crude petroleum exported increased from 57 percent in 1976, to 61 percent in 1978, falling to 55 percent by mid-year 1980. Tables 2 and 3 below refer. Table 2 Local Crude Petroleum: Exports and Locally Refined Crude 1975-1980 (Million cubic metres) Total production Year 1975 ... ... Local crude export % of Locally refined local crude Total Amt. % of Total 12.5 7.7 62 4.8 38 1976 12.3 7.0 57 5.3 43 1977 13.3 7.9 59 5.4 41 1978 13.3 8.1 61 5.2 39 1979 12.4 7.0 56 5.4 44 Jan.-June, 1979 6.2 3.5 56 2.7 44 Jan.-June, 1980 6.2 3.4 55 2.8 45 Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries. Table 3 Percentage (%) Distribution of Local Crude Petroleum Production by Company, 1975-1980 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Jan.- Jan.June June 1979 1980 57.9 55.3 59.1 60.0 56.3 56.1 56.6 22.2 22,5 20.2 19.3 20.7 20.8 19.2 8.6 9.9 8.6 7.8 8.7 8.8 8.9 Trinidad Issoro 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.9 10.0 9.9 11.2 TRINTOC 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Company Amoco ... ... Trinidad Northern Areas . Texaco =.. ... Premier Consolidated Oilfields Source: » * Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries. Refinery throughput continued tc fall throughout the decade of the 1970's. From a level of 18.7 million cubic metres in x976, throughput fell to 13.2 million cubic metres in 1979. expected in 1980- Little further decline is The decline in throughput means that an increasing proportion of local refinery capacity is not utilized. The decline in throughput in the latter half of the decade of the 1970's is to be associated with the decline in imports. Two major reasons for the decline in imports of crude petroleum are the United States tax on refinery exports from Trinidad and Tobago as well as from other nonUnited States sources, and the world shift away from the production of heavy fuels towards the more profitable lighter fuels. This latter fact has impacted on local refining activity in that the local plant has been geared towards the production of the less profitable fuel oil. The United States tax, combined with the fact of higher costs of crude petroleum have made ic less attractive for United States multinationals to maintain production levels in refineries outside of the United States i - 8and its dependencies » Table IV-C of the Statistical Appendix illustrates the production bias towards the heavier fuels. Table 4 below shows that the movements in refinery throughput, output and exports of refined products are highly and positively correlated. Tables IV-A and IV-B carry absolute figures from which Table 4 was derived. « Table 4 Percentage Annual Growth Rate of Refinery Throughput, Crude Petroleum Imports, Refinery Output and Refined Exports, 1975-1980 Refinery throughput Crude Oil imports Refinery Output Refinery products exported 13.8 1975/1976 37.5 46,7 37 .9 1976/1977 -15.0 -22.2 -15 .9 -20 c 6 1977/1978 -13 o 8 -14.3 -13 .7 -12.2 1978/1979 -3.6 -8.9 -3 .8 -7.8 1979/1980^ 13.1 22.9 15 .3 11.8 < 1/ January-June. Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries, Review of the Economy 1980. < Natural gas production has risen continuously since 1975, rising from 3.6 million cubic, metres in 1975, to 5.6 million cubic metres in 1980. The avail- ability of the gas in such abundance has provided the basis for introducing diversification in the economy. ^ The major purchasers of natural gas are the Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission, and two petrochemical firms. The Iron and Steel Company of Trinidad and Tobago (ISCOTT) has more recently become a major purchaser of natural gas. ( < - 9 - Manufacturing— A 24.6 percent increase in this sector's GDP at current prices hides a moderate performance in 1980, as a great portion of the increase had been due to price increases, and not real growth. The sector's contribution to total GDP rose to $1,017.9 million in 1980 to register a share of 7.2 percent of total GDP. The Index of Manufacturing Production (excluding oil and sugar) rose by 8.4 percent in 1978, by 6.1 percent in 1979 and by an estimated 7.8 percent in 1980. The inference is that some 16 percent of the increase in GDP was due to prices. The performance of the sub-sectors was uneven, with greatest buoyancy having been observed in printing, publishing and paper converters, drink and tobacco, textile,^knitted garments and footwear, chemical and non-metallic products, and assembly-type and related industries. Activity in the Drink and Tobacco Sector declined by 3 percent in 1979. Acreage under tobacco fell to some 14 hectares in 1979 from the 1975 level of 219 hectares, as agreement could not be reached between the farmers and the manufacturers as to what constituted a reasonable price for farmers' tobacco. Imported tobacco kept cigarette production levels at a reasonable level. Output in the textiles, knitted garments and footwear sub-sector rose by an estimated 11.7 percent in 1980 after a near 3 percent decline in the previous year, as revealed by the Index of Manufacturing Production. The chemical and non-metallic products (including petrochemicals) sub-sector experienced a near 10 percent increase in production in 1980, glass and plastic products for construction, petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals being the major areas of significantly increased production. Industrial disputes led to cessation of work in most plants and the eventual closure of one motor assembly plant contributed to the lower 1979 performances. Appendix Table VI refers. Indications are 2/ Excludes petroleum. that by mid-year 1980, production of motor vehicles had fallen by 11 percent below the figure for the corresponding period of the previous year.' Production of household appliances is estimated to have increased in 1980 after registering decreases in 1979. Much of this production satisfied domestic demand. Construction Provisional estimates put the sector's contribution to total GDP at current prices at $1,135 million - a relative contribution of 8.1 percent. A steady increase in the output of this sector was observed, contribution to GDP rising from $652.1 million in 1978 to $785.1 million in 1979, and registering a 44.6 percent increase in 1980 over the figure of the previous year. The absence of constant price estimates of GDP prevents an analysis of real growth in the sector, but a CSPAL estimate puts real growth in the vicinity of 18 percent. Activity in this sector was restrained by shortages of labour and materials, restrictions in the availability of credit from the Banking Sector, and more selective lending on the part of financial institutions. Public Sector activity in construction intensified in the areas of low andmedium-income housing. The National Housing Authority (NHA) underwent a change of orientation in 1980, with its main area of activity being the facilitation of capital improvements on existing housing estates, and the provision of low income and emergency housing. The Housing Task Force, established in 1978 to work in collaboration with the NHA to expedite the construction of houses in the country, completed Phase I of a housing project comprising 350 housing units. The Task Force also moved to develop land for housing purposes. Government allocated funds to the Sugar Welfare Labour Committee under its Housing Development Programme, to the Trinidad and Tobago Mortgage Finance Company Limited, and through the National Insurance Board to designated agents including trust companies, building societies and mortgage financing companies. The value of mortgages granted by the National Insurance Board in 1980 was some 33 percent above the 1979 figure. The surge was evident too in the private sector, not only in housing but also in commercial building. - 11 Work on the East-West corridor (a highway linking the Northwest to the North-Eastern part of the island) and on the Priority Bus Route (a road dedicated to buses and selected Government vehicles plying between Port-of-Spain and the North-Eastern villages) continued despite the problems common to the Construction Sector. THE EXTERNAL SECTOR AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS The pattern of trade continued to be influenced by the export of petroleum and petroleum products, and the importation of raw materials, food, manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment. A Balance of Payments estimate puts the total import bill for 1980 at $4,129.7 million and total exports at some $6,927.4 million, yielding a surplus on Merchandise Trade of some $2,797.7 million, which was more than twice as great as the surplus of the previous year. Much of the increase in export earnings derived from the increased price of petroleum on the international market. Appendix Table VII shows significant gains only in exports of petroleum and petroleum related products. An examination of the balance on visible trade excluding petroleum provides a good indicator of the weakness of the other exporting sectors of the domestic economy. Appendix Tables VIII-A and VIII-B provide data on Terms of Trade, 1974-1979. Whereas Table VIII-A shows fluctuating but generally favourable net terms of trade, Table VIII-B presents slightly fluctuating but deteriorating terms of trade for the non-petroleum section of the domestic economy. The 1980 figures are not expected'to differ from the observed trend. Table XV of the Statistical Appendix presents an analysis of Trade with CARICOM countries under the CARICOM Agreement for the period January to August 1979 and a corresponding period in 1980. No significant change in direction of trade was noted in 1980, with Jamaica, Guyana and Barbados being the major CARICOM sources from which imports into Trinidad and Tobago originated. The major portion of domestic exports proceeded to Barbados, Guyana, Antigua and I - 12 - Jamaica, these four countries accounting for nearly 77 percent of total domestic exports in the period ( January to August 1980. In the case of total trade, the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Japan were countries that provided most of the imports into the country in 1979. Although the United States ^ of America has remained the most important market, the proportion of exports going to this market has fallen from 74 percent in 1977 to 58 percent in 1979. The EEC as a group has, on the other hand, gained importance as a major foreign market. ^ Estimates indicate a net deficit of $1,832.0 million on the Services account of the balance of payments, as outflows of investment income rose from $1,408.7 million in 1970 to some $1,979.1 million in 1980. ^ The balance on the transfer payments account remained substantially unchanged in 1980, the deficit of $108.2 million having been observed, as compared with the 1979 figure of $109.5 million. Private transfers abroad exceeded official transfers, indicating some degree of liquidity in the system. j The net effect of these movements was a surplus on current account of $857.5 million - several times that of the previous year when the current account surplus stood at $125.2 million. Most of this increase was attributed ^ to the increased price of petroleum and petroleum products. For the first time in four years, net capital inflows fell, registering a figure of $497.3 million in 1980, after a level of $755.9 million in the previous year. The overall surplus on the ' balance of payments rose to $1,199.3 million in 1980, reflecting a 29 percent increase over the figure of the previous year. < PRICES The Retail Price Index provides evidence of intensification of inflationary pressures that affected the economy in 1980. Whereas the rate of price increase in 1979 was of the order of 14.7 percent, it rose to 17.5 percent in 1980, despite official instruments aimed at containing the rate of inflation. 1 Every section of the index registered price increases which ranged from 9 percent in Clothing to 23 percent in Services. The Food and, Drink and Tobacco sections contributed to the increased price level, the indexes for these sections registering a 19.3 percent increase respectively, and surpassing the previous year's rates of increase of 13.8 percent and 11.6 percent. The recorded rate of price increase was observed in the face of periodic shortages of commodities that resulted either from demand-supply lags, or from hoarding. The con- tinued inability of the Agricultural Sector to respond to demand has influenced price increases upward with price being the adjuster between demand and supply. A system of price controls on certain basic commodi- ties helped to temper the increase in prices. Other significant increases were noted in Housing which rose by 17.6 percent and household supplies which showed a 13.6 percent increase. Increased costs of construction and building materials, and increased rents explained the movements in the Housing Index. FISCAL AND MONETARY ACTIVITIES Fiscal Developments The Government Sector contributed some $1,150.3 million to total GDP in 1980, surpassing its contribution of the previous year by 10.4 percent. Revised estimates of Total Government revenue indicated a figure of $6,228 million, with an estimated surplus of approximately $253 million. Of the total revenue figure, the revised estimates show recurrent revenue to have increased by $2,142.4 million, while capital receipts increased by $48 million, and the unemployment levy to have contributed $136 million. Because of the progressive nature of the tax on incomes, and because of increased incomes, this element of revenue continues to increase its relative contribution to total revenue in the inflationary situation. Recent tax reliefs by way of increased personal allowances are estimated to have resulted in a relative stagnation of the contribution of the Unemployment Levy to total revenue. Corporation tax, on the other hand, has shown an i - 14 - increase, reflecting the greater profitability of the corporate sector. ( Central Government's total expenditures are estimated to have risen to approximately $5,975 million in 1980, representing a 43 percent increase over the 1979 total, the bulk of this increase due to rises in capital expenditure. ( Main items of recurrent expenditure were Wages and Salaries, Goods and Services, Transfers to Local Authorities, and Subsidies, and its increase is accounted for by price rises. Government capital expenditures are estimated to have increased by 62 percent in 1980 4 to $3,156 million, in accordance with the efforts towards industrial diversification and infrastructural development in the economy. The financing of these expenditures were met from Government net debt transactions in the domestic and external markets and changes in its cash balances. ( The external debt stood at the end of 1980, at some $1,040.5 million - some 62 percent of the Total Public Debt. The Central Government also pursued its policy of assisting industry through various financial intermediaries. Government's programme of assistance to industry is seen as constituting the basis for sustained activity in the sector and sustained growth in the economy. Monetary Developments j The policy of credit restriction continued through 1980 as part of the struggle against inflation. The Central Bank, in addition to attempting to curb inflation, sought to re-direct the flow of financial resources towards the priority productive sectors of the economy. and specific policy measures were implemented. To this end, moral suasion * A variation in the reserve requirement of commercial banks with the Central Bank drew off a substantial portion of liquidity from the economy. The policy of selective Credit Controls instituted in November 1979, sought to limit new credit to ' individuals for non-business purposes to a maximum of 25 percent of total new lending, using 30 September 1979 as a base date, thereby freeing funds for use by priority productive sectors. ( Progress was made on the institutional reform of the financial system during 1980. Several areas of progress are as follows:- < - 15 i) Government enacted legislation giving the Central Bank power to regulate the business of the Non-Bank Financial Institutions. The legislation provides for licensing, portfolio disclosures, and the determination of equity levels. It is generally intended to protect depositors' funds placed in these institutions, as well as to ensure that the institutions conform with overall monetary and credit policy. ii) Work on the establishment of a Unit Trust which will facilitate the sale of equity particularly to investors in the low and medium-income groups, reached an advanced stage. iii) The Capital Market Project Policy Group submitted its First Interim Report along with guidelines for a Securities Industry Act providing for the establishment of a stock exchange. iv) Efforts continued to be aimed at the localization of the banking sector. i i i i i i i ( i » » I » I STATISTICAL APPENDIX TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO I 1980 I » » i i i i i ( i i i TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE I MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1976r 1977r 1978r 1979r 1980r Basic economic indicators (constant prices) Gross domestic product at factor cost ($ Mill, at 1970 prices) Population (thousands of inhabitants) Per capita GDP ($ at 1970 prices) 2 ,100.2 1 ,098.2 1 ,914 Short-run economic indicators Gross domestic product (current values) Per capita gross domestic product Terms of Trade Current value of exports of goods and services Current value of imports of goods and services Consumer price index December-December Variation between annual averages Money Rate of unemployment Current revenue of government Total expenditure of government • • • • • • -1.9 20.0 29.3 12.0 8.7 38.1 ... 26.8 55.6 External Sector Trade balance (goods and services) Balance on current account Variation in net international reserves (- means increase) External debt 2 ,317.2 2 ,519.0 2,661.8 1 ,114.8 1 ,134.5 1,148.6 2 ,078 2 ,200 2,317 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 11.1 11.1 5.9 16.1 22.2 11.4 11.8 31.7 • « • • • • • • • 22.5 22.5 • • • • • • • • 21.0 21.0 16.0 • • • 8.8 19.6 10.2 14.7 43.2 17.2 -12.9 -16.4 25.6 3.4 31.0 20.6 28.2 44.9 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS . .. 16.6 17.5 32.1— e• • 53.1 42.6 518.3 445.2 406.1 331.4 69.3 -21.8 161.0 51.4 965.7 856.9 -401.7 128.9 -1 ,049.1 499.6 -766.5 748.9 -937.3 898.5 -1,199.3 1,040.0 _!/ Data refer to position at end October 1980. Source: 11.1 11.1 -3.7 • Review of the Economy 1980 and data supplied CEPAL. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE IV-A GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, AT FACTOR COST (Current prices: TT$ Mill.) Percentage Breakdown Annual Growth Rate r 1979r 1980P 1973 1980 1978r 1979r 256.6 266.8 286.1 4.4 2.0 -1.9 4.0 7.2 3,566.8 4,093.5 4,933.7 27.4 35.0 -3.6 15.0 20.5 Manufacturing excluding Petroleum 666.6 816.8 1,017.9 9.5 .7.2 18.2 23.0 24.6 Construction 652.1 785.1 1,135.0 6.9 8.1 13.7 20.4 44.6 5,142.1 5,962.2 7,372.7 48.2 52.3 0.8 15.9 23.7 125.0 157.7 152.1 1.9 1.1 32.0 26.0 -3.6 1978 Agriculture Petroleum Sub-Total Goods Electricity and Water Transport, Storage and Communications Sub-Total Basic Services Commerce, Restaurants and Hotels 1980F 1,058.9 1 , 3 6 7 . 9 1,792.3 11.4 12.1 27.1 29.2 31.0 1,183.9 1 , 5 2 5 . 6 1,944.4 13.3 13.8 28.0 28.8 27.5 1,004.4 1,173.9 1,381.1 . 15.3 9.8 19.1 17.0 17.7 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 998.9 1 , 2 9 0 . 0 1,596.7 7.8 11.3 41.2 29.1 23.8 Government 720.6 1,041.5 1,150.3 9.1 8.2 22.2 45.0 10.4 Education and Culture and Community Services 262.1 303.5 369.3 3.0 2.6 19.2 16.0 21.7 Personal Services 189.7 203.0 267.4 3.3 2.0 15.5 7.0 31.7 3,175.7 4,011.9 4,764.8 38.5 33.9 25.8 26.3 18.8 9,501.7 11,499.7 •14,081.9 100.0 100.0 11.1 21.0 22.5 Sub-Total Other Services Total Gross Domestic Product Source: Data supplied CEPAL by Central Statistical Office. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE I I I AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Unit Sugar '000 tonnes Cocoa beans '000 kg i l Coffee beans Oranges H Grapefruit H 1977 1978 1979 Jan-June 1979 Jan-June^ 1980 176.0 147.0 143.0 143.0 ... 3,344.9 3,397.9 2,627.5 2,378.7 2,499.7 2,497.2 2,390.8 2,211.4 2,999.4 2,966.2 2,671.6 5,604.6 3,938.1 9.0 7.4 2,918.5 743.0 P Annual Growth Rate 1978 1980 1979 -16.5 -2.7 1,796.0 1.6 -22.7 -24.5 2,102.0 -14.4 -0.1 -12.1 197.6 35.6 3,379.5 109.8 -29.7 • •• 6.8 3.8 -17.8 -8.1 • a • . .. • • « Copra '000 tonnes Tobacco '000 kg 87.5 119.5 119.1 119.1 o • 36.6 -0.3 '000 kg H 1,312.1 1,436.6 1,969.0 841 974 9.5 37.1 15.8 2,615.0 2,158.6 2,418.2 1,116.0 848 -17.5 12.0 -24.0 71.8 79.4 93.9 44 33 10.6 18.3 -25.0 1.9 -20.6 Meat Beef and Veal Pork H Mutton Poultry (live weight) H 33,029.0 33,663.0 26,745.0e 16,513.6 Fish H 3,162.9 2,944.1 2,545.0 1,304.0 -7.0 -13.6 Eggs H 2,998.0 3,519.8 2,850.6e 1,894.8 17.4 -19.0 5,926.7r 6,253.0 2,954.0 1.0 5.5 Milk '000 litres 5,868.1 Source: 2,954.0 Quarterly Economic Report October-December 1979; Review of the Economy 1980 and data supplied CEPAL. 0.0 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE I V - A CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS (Million Barrels/Cubic Meters) CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Barrels Cubic Meters Year CRUDE OIL IMPORTS Barrels Cubic Meters CRUDE OIL EXPORTS Barrels Cubic Meters 78.6 12.5 58.1 9.2 48.8 7.7 1976 77.8 12.3 84.8 13.5 44.4 7.0 1977 83.6 13.3 65.8 10.5 49.4 7.9 1978 83.8 13.3 56.8 9.0 51.2 8.1 1979 78.2 12.4 51.6 8.2 44.3 7.0 19 7 9 ^ 38.7 VO 22.3 3.5 22.1 3.5 1980^ 38.8 6.2 26.8 4.3 21.3 3.4 CSI 1975 1/ January to June. Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE I V - B REFINERY THROUGHPUT, OUTPUT AND EXPORTS OF REFINED PRODUCTS (Millions Barrels/Cubic Meters) REFINERY THROUGHPUT Barrels Cubic Meters Year REFINERY OUTPUT Barrels Cubic Meters REFINERY PRODUCTS EXPORTED Barrels Cubic Meters Imports as % of Refinery throughput 1975 85.7 13.6 82.9 13.2 91.4 14.5 67.6 1976 117.6 18.7 114.3 18.2 103.5 16.5 72.2 1977 99.3 15.9 75.5 15.3 82.2 13.1 66.0 1978 85.9 13.7 83.0 13.2 72.6 11.5 65.7 1979 82.9 13.2 79.6 12.7 66.8 10.6 62.1 1979—/ 38.4 6.1 37.0 5.9 32.3 5.1 57.4 1980^ 43.4 6.9 42.8 6.8 35.9 5.7 62.3 1/ January to June. Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE IV-C PRODUCTION IN MINING AND REFINING Production Unit Petroleum Mill. barrels Natural Gas '000 cu. metres Asphalt '000 tonnes Liquid petroleum gases Mill. barrels Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 1980 83 .6 83 8 78 3 77 6 0 2 -6.6 -1 0 4,235 .9 4 ,472 9 4,806 5 5,602 2 5 6 7.5 16 6 43 .6 58 .2 59 7 39 9 33 5 2.6 -33 2 0 .5 0 .6 0 8 0 .9 20 .0 33. 3 12 5 Motor gasolene it 18 9 16 8 14 8 15 2 -11 1 -11.9 2 8 Aviation gasolene H 0 4 0 4 0 3 0 4 0 0 -25.0 33 3 Aviation turbine fuel it 2 5 2 2 2 5 3 2 -12 0 13.6 28 0 White spirit H 0 01 0 02 0 Desulphurised crude H Kerosene H 5 8 Gas/diesel oil H Fuel oils/flux it Lubricating oil/greases •I Asphaltic products M Petrochemicals H 02 100 1 1 1 .2 4 5 3 2 3 10 7 10 1 11 7 56 4 45 5 0 . 0 9 .0 1/ -22 4 -28.9 0 0 14 0 -5 6 15.8 19 7 43 5 42 .0 -19 3 -4.4 -3 5 -22 2 0 42 .9 50.0 0 .0 25.0 20 ,0 2 0 .9 0 7 0 7 1 .0 0 .2 0 2 0 3 0 .3 0 9 0 8 1 0 1 2 \J The item "desulphurised crude" has been accounted for as of July 1979. Source: 0 Quarterly Economic Report, October-December 1979; data supplied by Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries. 0.0 -11 .1 0 . TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE V-B INDICATORS OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION (EXCLUDING OIL AND SUGAR) (1977 = 100) 1977 1978r . , . Jan-Sept Jan-Sept— 1979 1980 1979 Annual Growth Rate 1, Jan-Sept— 1978 1979 1980 Index of Manufacturing Production - TOTAL 100.0 108.4r 115.0 114.1 123.0 8.4r 6.1r 7.8 Food processing 100.0 105.8 116.1 116.7 120.8 5.8 9.7 3.5 Drink and Tobacco 100.0 96.3 93.4 93.0 108.8 -3.7 -3.0 17.0 Textile, knitted garments and footwear 100.0 99.1 96.3 96.5 107.8 -0.9 -2.8 11.7 100.0 97.7 110.4 129.5 -2.3 Printing, publishing and paper converters Wood and related products 100.0 88.7 Chemical and Non-Metallic products 100.0 126.1 Assembly-type and Related Industries ndustries 100.0 Miscellaneous manufactures 100.0 111.6 r 119.0 r 14.2 r 117.3 110.4 -11.3 128.6 128.0 140.6 26.1 2.0 9.8 112.4* 114.8r 113.2 123.4 12.4' 2.1r 9.0 103.8 120.9 115.8 107.9 3.8 1/ Includes unpublished data July-September. Source : Economic Indicators Report,ApriiJune 1980, and data supplied CEPAL. 34.2 17.3 r 16.5 -5.9 -6.8 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE VI OUTPUT OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS Uni ts- r Jan-June Jan-June 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 176.0 147.0 143.0 143.0 Annual Growth Rate 19806 1978 1979 -16.4 -2.8 10.4 16.1 ••• •«• Sugar '000 tonnes Rum '000 proof gallons 4,225.9 4,665.0 5,417.8 1,975.6 '000 liquid gallons 6,699.0 5,437.2 6,569.8 3,102.4 -18.9 20.8 Cigarettes '000 kg 1,003.1 1,016.9 889.3 466.8 1.4 -12.5 Edible oil '000 litres 8,652.0 7,315.0 8,104.0 3,231.0 -15.5 10.8 6,799.2 7,559.6 7,429.0^ 3,821.0^ 11.1 -1.7 Soap '000 kg 1 ! 4,449.0 4,422.0 3,904.0 2,149.0 -0.6 -11.7 Cement '000 tonnes 218.1 223.5 217.7 103.3 2.5 -2.6 Bricks and blocks '000 25,655 25,450 . .. 129.9 12,422 13,005 -0.8 Fertilizers '000 tonnes 342.0 632.0 677.5 693. 84.8 7.2 14,320 16,161 15,247 7,345 6,536 12.9 -5.7 -11.0 15,050 10,029 7,991 3,681 4,402 -33.4 -20.3 21.7 Beer and stout Margarine, lard and butter substitute • • • 0 0« -20.5 4.7 Assembly industries (n.e.s.) Motor vehicles Radios Numbers i t TV's i i 13,482 12,022 10,541 5,735 8,535 -10.8 -12.3 48.8 Gas cookers i i 27,071 22,346 15,254 6,129 9,042 -17.5 -31.7 47.5 Refrigerators I I 22,960 25,025 21,124 9,040 13,402 9.0 -15.6 48.3 1/ Include margarine and lard only, 2/ January to December 1980, Source: Quarterly Economic Report, October-December 1979; Review of the Economy 1980. Data supplied by Ministry of Energy and Energy Based Industries, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE VII SELECTED EXPORTS OF GOODS Millions of Dollars (F.O.B.) Jan-June^ Jan-June^ 1979 1980 Percentage Breakdown 1970 1980 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 2,730.9 730.9 2,343.2 3,287.8 1,443,2 2,565,6 70,8 58.2 -14.2 40.3 77.8 055.8 2,029.0 2,348.8 910.0 1,464.5 9.1 33.2 -1.3 15.8 83.4 53.7 84.4 71.5 67.0 4.5 1.5 -35.6 57.2 60.9 ¿ •p -6.3 , 7.8 10.2 14.4 5.7 5.1 0.2 0.1 30.8 41.2 3.1 0.4 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.4 67.2 56.3 92.0 40.6 51.2 2.5 1,2 -16,2 63.4 26.1 Fertilizer and ammonia 61.0 121.6 117.0 68.6 80.8 4.5 1.8 99.3 -3.8 17.8 Cocoa beans 20.8 26.7 21.9 20.1 14.1 1.0 0.3 28.4 -18.0 -29.8 Coffee beans 9.6 11.2 9.0 5.2 4.0 0.3 0.1 16.7 -20.0 -23.1 Citrus and citrus juice 1.9 3.1 4.2 2.6 3.4 0.4 0.1 63.2 35.5 30.8 Cement 0.0 0.0 0.0 6,175.2 2,659.2 Main traditional exports Petroleum products Crude Petroleum^ 2/ SugarRum Natural asphalt Main non-traditional exports Petrochemicals Total Domestic Exports 5,189.0 - 4,802.7 - 4,405.3 1/ Crude and partly refined petroleum. 3/ Because of the relatively low base at 1978 the value for 1979 yields an enormous growth rate of 750.0 percent. Source: Quarterly Economic Report, October-December 1979. and data supplied by Central Statistical Office. 0.5 100.0 - - 100.0 1/ -66.7 -87.1 - -7.4 -10.5 - 28.6 - 65.7 2/ Refined and unrefined sugar, (Central Statistical Office) - 25 - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE V I I I - A TERMS OF TRADE, 1974-1980 1974 = 100 Average Unit Value Exports 1974 • « • ... ... 1975 1976 1977 1978r 1979P 1980 114.8 100.7 135.3 98.7 135.3 104.5 145.5 100.6 192.4 ... ... 100 146.4 ... ... 100 145.6 ... 100 133.6 » Terms of Trade (net) 115.6 , Imports 164.9 116.7 • • • Source : Central Statistical Office. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE VIII-B TERMS OF TRADE (EXCLUSIVE OF PETROLEUM), 1974-1980 1974 = 100 Average Unit Value Exports Imports 100 100 100 1975 128.0 121.6 105.3 1976 124.2 147.9 84 . .. 1974 1977 126.1 155.6 81 r 164.2 169.8 96.7 P 162.0 236.7 68.4 1978 1979 1980 Terms of Trade (net) ... Source : Central Statistical Office. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE IX BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (TT$ Mill.) 1978r 1979r 1980P 1976 1977 921.5 1,190.5 794.2 1,377.1 2,797.7 3,022.5 2,101.0 3,537.2 2,346.7 3,643.5 2,849.4 4,974.5 3,597.4 6,927.4 4,129.7 SERVICES (NET) -229.7 -600.2 -616.6 -1,142.4 -1,832.0 Transportation Foreign travel Investment Income Other Services 295.2 94.2 -700.0 80.9 337.6 94.7 -1,056.0 23.5 222.3 103.0 -884.8 -57.1 332.6 43.5 -1,408.7 -109.8 TRANSFER PAYMENTS (NET) -73.1 -74.7 -91.1 -109.5 -108.2 Private Official -26.1 -47.0 -38.8 -35.9 -50.6 -40.5 -65.4 -44.1 -64.7 -43.5 618.7 515.6 86.5 125.2 857.5 Capital Inflows (net) Private Public -142.6 240.0 -382.6 676.0 344.3 331.7 714.2 433.0 281.2 755.9 537.0 218.9 497.3 ERRORS, AND OMISSIONS 87.0 -119.5 -24.0 47.3 -154.9 563.1 1,072.1 776.7 928.4 1,199.9 NET COMPENSATORY FINANCING (increase - ) CHANGE IN NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (increase - ) -563.1 -1,072.1 -776.7 -928.4 -1,199.9 1,060.7 -750.7 -10.0 -16.0 -845.9 -34.7 -47.8 CURRENT ACCOUNT MERCHANDISE (NET) Exports Imports BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT e© t o© e -1,979.1 o• « CAPITAL ACCOUNT OVERALL SURPLUS OR DEFICIT Foreign exchange I.M.F. Gold Tranche S.D.R's Source: Central Statistical Office. 548.5 -8.9 -5.7 - -11.4 ... «0 0 « • • • O 0 i - 27 - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE_X INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS (TT$ Mill.) < 1975 Total external public debt 1976r 1977r 1978r 1979r 1980 222.6 128.9 499.6 756.5 898.5 1,041.0 Servicing of external debt 50.8 104.9 25.2 59.0 102.1 521.2 Amortization and sinking fund 31.1 89.8 15.2 14.0 14.8 427.5 Interest payments 19.7 15.1 10.0 45.0 87.3 93.7 Management of Loan 0.2 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.0 2.8 Servicing of debt as a percentage of total exports 1.3 1.9 0.5 1.1 1.5 9.0 Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, and the Ministry of Finance. < < < - 28 - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE VIII-A EVOLUTION OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (September 1975 = 100) % Weight 1977 1978 1979 1980 ANNUAL AVERAGES TOTAL 100 .0 121.5 133.9 153.6 180.5 33 .4 113.2 123.5 140.6 167.8 Drink and Tobacco 6 .4 123.3 141.8 158.2 188.8 Housing 9 .3 119.5 138.6 166.6 196.0 Services 2 .1 117.9 139.5 163.8 200.7 Household supplies 6 .7 123.3 136.7 155.4 176.6 18 .0 125.9 136.4 148.4 161.8 Food Clothing % VARIATION DECEMBER TO DECEMBER TOTAL 11.4 8.8 19.6 16.6 Food 11.2 6.8 22.9 17.9 Drink and Tobacco 10.6 11.7 19.3 17.5 Housing 14.8 14.1 21.8 18.5 Services 13.9 13.9 26.8 17.9 Household supplies 10.7 11.3 15.1 13.9 Clothing 10.4 6.1 13.0 7.2 ANNUAL AVERAGE VARIATIONS TOTAL 11.8 10.2 14.7 17.5 6.9 9.1 13.8 19.3 Drink and Tobacco 10.5 15.0 11.6 19.3 Housing 12.8 16.0 20.2 17.6 Services 10.6 18.3 17.4 23.0 Household supplies 12.2 10.9 13.8 13.6 Clothing 14.7 8.3 8.8 9.0 Food Source: > Quarterly Economic Report, October-December 1979. Trinidad and Tobago Gazette (extraordinary) February 1981 (Vol. 20, No. 51). - 29 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XII EVOLUTION OF WAGES—^AND SALARIES (Indexes 1976 = 100) 1978 1979 May 1979 May 1980 Nominal 140.8 170.4 163.6 202.0— Real 114.3 120.6 115.9 117.1 Wages and Salaries 2/ ANNUAL GROWTH RATES Wages and Salaries Nominal 24.4 21.0 19.6 Real 12.8 5.5 18.4 1/ Data are in respect of Average of May and November. 2/ Data in respect of May. 3/ Rates calculated on Basis of May 1980/May 1979: CEPAL estimate. Source: Economic Indicators Report, April-June 1980 and data supplied CEPAL. 3/ 23.51.0 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XIII CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE (TT$ Mill.) Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 1 ,837.8 263.4 247.7 56.7 1 ,833.0 273.1 287.7 66.5 2,488.2 416.8 330.9 82.1 4 ,138.9 541.4 438.6 107.4 -0.3 3.7 16.1 17,3 35.7 52.6 15.0 23.5 66.3 29.9 32.5 30.8 2 ,981.0 3 ,083.2 4,037.0 6 ,179.4 3.4 31.0 53.1 594.5 200.9 78.9 716.3 258.3 124.2 899.5 395.1 152.1 1 ,077.8 527.0 177.7 20.5 28.6 57.4 25.6 53.0 22.5 19.9 33.4 16.9 141.6 161.4 290.0 365.2 14.0 79.7 26.0 42.6 51.2 53.2 80.3 77.4 65.1 125.7 167.7 218.4 143.4 297.0 230.8 88.5 51.2 22.4 56.5 16.7 235.4 14.1 77.1 5.7 Total Recurrent Expenditure 1 ,162.9 1 ,483.0 2,247.5 2 ,818.9 27.5 51.6 25.4 Current surplus 1 ,818.1 1 ,600.2 1,789.5 3 ,360.5 12,0 11.8 87.8 6.0 2.5 0.1 48.2 -58.3 -96.0 Capital expenditure 1 ,094.0 1 ,409.6 1,943.6 3 ,155.9 28.8 37.9 62.4 Total expenditure 2 ,256.9 2 ,892.6 4,191.1 5 ,974.8 28.2 44.9 42.6 Total revenue 2 ,987.0 3 ,085.7 4,037.1 6 ,227.6 3.3 39.6 54.3 730.1 193.1 -154.0 252.8 -13.6 -•179.8 264.2 1980^ Recurrent Revenue Tax revenue of which: Income Tax Royalty Customs and Excise Purchase Tax Total Recurrent Revenue Recurrent Expenditure Wages and salaries Goods and services Transfers to persons Transfers to local authorities and others Interest on the Public debt Subsidies Unemployment fund Current receipts Fiscal surplus (+) or Deficit (-) 1/ Revised estimates. * U Small base yields sizeable increase (48,100.0). Source: Monthly Statistical Digest, January 1981, Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XIV MONETARY BALANCE (TT$ Mill.) Balance at end of Jan.-Oct. Jan.-Oct. 1980 1979 Annual Growth Rate 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 881.8 1,262.9 1,480.4 1,311.6 1,732.8 43.2 17.2 32.1 Currency outside banks 230.9 295.6 411.7 353.8 450.5 28.0 39.3 27.3 Demand deposits (adjusted) 650.9 967.3 1,068.7 957.8 1,282.3 48.6 10.5 33.9 3,501.3 4,225.2 5,076.2 4,426.2 5,993.3 20.7 20.1 35.4 -2,692.9 -3,211.2 -3,319.9 -2,838.2 -4,116.7 19.2 3.4 45.0 1,798.1 2,414.2 2,854.8 2,823.6 3,580.3 34.3 18.3 26.8 -1,660.8 -2,027.3 -2,725.5 -2,530.4 -2,898.9 22.1 34.4 14.6 139.6 247.8 300.5 77.5 21.3 Money Factors of Expansion Foreign assets (net) Domestic credit Government (net) Official entities Private sector^ Factors of Absorption Quasi-money (savings and time deposits) Long-term foreign borrowing ~ J Includes public bodies. \ Source: Monthly Statistical Digest, January 1981, Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XV A N A L Y S I S OF TRADE W I T H CARICOM COUNTRIES (UNDER CARICOM AGREEMENT) (TT$'000) Jan-Aug 1979 Country Guyana IMPORTS (CIF) % % 1980 Growth Jan-Aug 1980 Jan-Aug 1979 DOMESTIC EXPORTS (FOB) % % Jan-Aug 1980 Growth 1980 32,893.6 22.8 13.5 37,345.5 43,101.4 21.4 30.0 56,034.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dominica 740.6 0.6 30.3 965.2 3,335.7 1.3 4.5 3,487.4 Grenada 953.3 0.9 51.3 1,442.5 8,779.5 5.9 75.3 15,389.7 Grenadines St. Vincent 2,751.1 3.3 96.0 5,391.2 6,565.6 3.9 53.7 10,093.3 St. Lucia 3,617.2 2.2 -1.0 3,582.2 14,145.9 8.9 64.4 23,253.5 - 8 3 .s7 12.7 1,299.4 0.6 23.3 1,602.6 Montserrat 77.7 - Antigua 6,023.0 4.5 23.6 7,444.2 19,909.6 17.5 129.8 45,758.9 St. K i t t s - N e v i s Anguilla 2,897.0 2.0 10.0 3,185.8 4,140.7 3.0 85.8 7,693.8 Barbados 25,043.6 21.8 39.7 35,825.3 44,069.3 24.1 43.5 63,259.1 Jamaica 56,186.5 34.5 0.8 56,653.7 11,765.5 13.5 200.5 35,360.4 1,327.0 7.4 819.1 12,196.6 310.5 58.1 130.1 133,110.6 100.0 23.2 164,044.9 157,423.2 66.5 262,063.7 Belize TOTAL Source: Statistical Bulletin Vol. 9 no . 38, - 100.0 Central Statistical Office. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XVI DOMESTIC EXPORTS-EXCLUDING PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (TT$'000) DOMESTIC EXPORTS (FOB) Jan-Aug Jan-Aug % 1979 Growtl 1980 % Country Guyana 13,305.5 11,149.1 11.9 -16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dominica 1,737.6 2,328.1 2,5 34.0 Grenada 3,716.3 4,928.9 5.3 32.7. St. Vincent 3,530.7 4,433.7 4.7 25.6 St. Lucia 3,839.0 3,514.3 3.8 -8.5 443.2 494.6 0.5 11.6 Antigua 2,400.3 2,424.3 2.6 1.0 St. Kitts-NevisAnguilla 1,237.3 1,517.0 1.6 22.6 27,013.9 28,380.8 30.3 5.1 9,563.8 34,236.0 36.6 258.0 310.4 129.4 0.2 -58.3 67,098.6 93,536.2 100.0 39.4 Grenadines Montserrat Barbados Jamaica Belize TOTAL Source: Statistical Bulletins, Vol. 9, no. 38 and Vol. 8, no. 31, Central Statistical Office and data supplied CEPAL. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE X V I I - A D I R E C T I O N OF TRADE ( I M P O R T S ) , ($ M i l l . ) Area 1976 United States of America % 1977 1976-1980 % Imports from 1978 % 1979 % 953.1 19.4 900.4 20.8 968.7 124.9 2.5 150.0 3.5 179.1 3.8 333.6 6.6 513.0 10.4 629.8 14.5 923.3 19.6 838.8 16.6 U n i t e d Kingdom 365.8 7.5 456.8 10.5 589.2 12.5 553.0 10.9 Other 147.2 2.9 173.0 4.0 334.1 7.1 285.8 5.7 34.9 0.7 38.3 0.8 42.2 0.9 57.5 1.1 Commonwealth N o n - C a r i b b e a n (other than U n i t e d Kingdom and Canada) 101.0 2.1 89.5 2.1 98.0 2.1 102.7 2.0 Commonwealth 131.2 2.7 138.8 3.2 166.8 3.5 231.3 4.6 13.9 0.3 13.4 0.3 19.7 0.4 24.2 0.5 161.2 3.3 120.4 2.8 137.0 2.9 137.7 2.7 46.3 2,015.2 39.9 Canada European Economic Community 20.5 1,310.1 25.9 1980 • Caribbean Non-Commonwealth Latin Association America Rest of the World Source: Caribbean 2,875.7 Central Statistical 58.6 2,259.6 Office. 52.0 2,186.1 • ... Of w h i c h European Free Trade • — — TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XVII-B DIRECTION OF TRADE (EXPORTS), 1976-1980 ($ Mill.) Area 1976 United States of America Canada 3,547.7 % 1977 68.8 3,674.4 % Exports to 1978 % 74.0 3,288.3 1979 % 68.6 3,478.0 58.1 1980 • 41.8 0.8 56.4 1.1 51.8 1.1 27.6 0.5 446.0 8.7 242.1 4.9 346.1 7.4 837.3 14.0 United Kingdom 248.9 4.8 102.7 2.0 137.5 2.9 230.6 3.9 Other 197.1 3.9 139.4 2.5 208.6 4.4 606.7 10.1 European Free Trade Association 15.6 0.3 11.2 0.2 18.7 0.4 19.3 0.3 Commonwealth Non-Caribbean (other than United Kingdom and Canada) 31.1 0.6 16.8 0.3 33.0 0.7 17.8 0.3 Commonwealth Caribbean 406.9 8.0 374.0 7.5 372.0 7.9 515.4 8.6 Non-Commonwealth Caribbean 370.2 7.2 365.7 7.4 434.2 9.2 671.7 11.2 — Latin America 195.3 3.7 124.0 2.5 102.4 2.2 231.7 3.9 — 99.3 1.9 104.0 2.1 119.9 2.5 186.1 3.1 European Economic Community Of which Rest of the World Source: Central Statistical Office. • • I - 36 - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TABLE XVIII SUGAR PRODUCTION - HECTARES AND AVERAGE YIELDS Year Hectares under Cane Hectares Reaped Cultivation Tonnes Canes per Cane Milled hectare ('000 tonnes) reaped Tonnes Sugar per Sugar hectare produced (tonnes) reaped 1975 40,947 33,241 1,736 52.2 4.89 162,590 1976 41,037 36,754 2,265 61.6 5.54 203,649 1977 39,959 35,990 2,018 56.1 4.89 175,986 1978 39,612 35,641 1,763 49.5 4.13 147,058 1979 37,541 33,766 1,710 50.6 4.23 142,692 1980 36,340 30,474 1,499 49.2 3.70 112,681 Source: I Ì > Data supplied by Sugar Manufacturers' Association. I i i i i í i i < SELECTED LIST OF STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS AND SOURCES I I < Í i i i < i I SELECTED LIST OF STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS AND SOURCES ANTIGUA Annual Trade Report. Digest of Foreign Trade Statistics« Cost of Living Index „ Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Development and External Affairs. BAHAMAS External Trade Statistics Report (Annual)„ External Trade Statistics Report (Quarterly). Statistical Abstract „ Summary Report of External Trade Statistics (Quarterly)„ Quarterly Statistical Summary „ Annual Review of Prices Report, Retail Price Index (Monthly). Agricultural Statistics Report (Quarterly). Vital Statistics Report . Quarterly Review. Department of Statistics BARBADOS Annual Abstract of Statistics. Quarterly Digest of Statistics* Digest of Statistics (Monthly). Annual Overseas Trade Repor t „ Quarterly Overseas Trade Report, Economic Survey. The Central Bank of the Bahamas. Statistical Service. Ministry of Finance and Planning. Economic and Financial Statistics. Central Bank of Barbados BELIZE Economic Survey. Annual Abstract of Statistics . Annual Trade Report* Central Planning Unit, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. DOMINICA Annual Overseas Trade Report. Annual Statistical Digest„ Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. GRENADA Annual Overseas Trade Report „ Quarterly Overseas Trade Report. Statistical Department, Ministry of Finance. GUYANA Economic Survey of Guyana. Annual Account Relating to External Trade. Monthly Account Relating to External Trade. S t a t i s t i c a l Bureau, M i n i s t r y of Economic Development. 4 - 2 - External Trade with CARICOM and -CARIFTA Territories Quarterly Review .of Financial Statistics. Quarterly Statistical Digest. Annual Statistical Abstract, Economic Bulletin . Statistical Bureau Ministry of Economic Development. External Trade. External Trade Annual Bulletin. External Trade Bulletin (Monthly). Statistical Abstract. Production Statistics . Consumer Price Indices . The Labour Force • Economic and Social Survey. Economic Bulletin. Balance of Payments of Jamaica. Statistical Digest. Travel Statistics . Department of Statistics. MONTSERRAT Overseas Trade Report. Statistical Digest. Statistical Office. ST. KITTSNEVIS-ANGUILLA Digest of Statistics External Trade of St. Kitts-NevisAnguilla. Statistical Unit, Ministry of Trade, Development, Industry and Tourism. ST. LUCIA Annual Statistical Digest. Overseas Trade of St. Lucia. Quarterly Overseas Trade Report. Statistical Department, Ministry of Development, Planning and Statistics. ST. VINCENT Annual Trade Report. Quarterly Overseas Trade Report, Digest of Statistics. Statistical Unit. SURINAME Annual Report, Multi-annual Development Programme for Suriname Central.Bank of Suriname Stichting Planbureau. GUYANA (Cont'd) JAMAICA Bank of Guyana. National Planning Agency Bank of Jamaica. Jamaica Tourist Board. I < » - 3 - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO GENERAL Annual Statistical Digest, Annual Overseas Trade Report International Travel Report, Balance of Payments, Economic Indicators. Quarterly Economic Report. Statistical Digest, Economic Survey and Projections (for most of thé Associated States), Economic and Financial Review. Annual Report and Statement of Accounts . Digest of External Trade Statistics. Annual Report . A Digest of Trade Statistics of Caribbean Community Member States. » > > > Central Statistical Office. Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago. British Development Division in the Caribbean, Ministry of Overseas Development (UK) East Caribbean Currency Authority. East Caribbean Common Market Secretariat, Antigua. Caribbean Development Bank, Bridgetown, Barbados. Caribbean Community Secretariat, Guyana. i i i i i i i i ( » » » » > > > > i i i i i { i < < < » » » » » » » » I i < I í i 4 i í i <